Robbie Ray: How Atkins acquired an Ace

[KevinGregg]

Ever since we acquired Robbie Ray I have been thinking he looks pretty good. Like "no way we acquired this guy for Travis Bergen" good. His numbers haven't been amazing since we got him (4.38 ERA, 5.55 FIP, 4.91 xFIP) but the living room scout in me sees a ton of potential in him. Just a note to start off, however, which I didn't realize at first: his ERA as a Jay has actually been below league average which is 4.52 this year.

 

His command isn't really that bad and his stuff is electric. I believe that this guy is different from Roark, Anderson, and Walker. My hypothesis is that he looks like a great pitcher who will substantially lower that 4.38 Blue Jays ERA moving forward.

 

But the reality is we did acquire him for Bergen, so the industry did not value him. And clearly his numbers were terrible (7.84 ERA, 7.29 FIP, 6.47 xFIP) - he wasn't pitching well at all prior to the trade, so what gives? What am I seeing that wasn't there with Arizona?

 

I went looking for something that has changed with Robbie since he came over to the Jays and it didn't take me long. Turns out that at the start of this season, he decided to stop throwing like David Price and start throwing like a 15 year old girl for some reason:

 

15 year old girl:

(watch the catcher)

 

Robbie Ray:

 

And now, as you can see here, in his first appearance with the Jays he was already back to using the same delivery he had used very successfully in the past.

 

But how can we know if he is for real? It is just three appearances so far (today's start was not included), that is too small of a sample size right? Wrong!

 

It has been 7 years since I first learned about the wonderful concept of pitch based ERA estimators such as TIPS. This beautiful stat has just 3 inputs: o-swing%, swStr%, and foul%. It doesn't use IP as an input like FIP or xFIP (IP are obviously not independent of defense unless you get every out in the inning via strikeout). Best of all, in a sample of just a few hundred pitches you have a stat that predicts future ERA better than any of the other major players including more complex stats like SIERA.

 

I was sure that this new idea would revolutionize pitching analysis and discussion, yet here we are 7 years later and we as baseball fans really haven't moved very far past FIP (just look at the start of my post). There was a good post here about the shortcomings of DIPS and I think the clear response should be a shift towards using better ERA estimators in our discussions.

 

So, using TIPS I will predict Robbie Ray's future success using only the 238 pitches he has thrown so far as a Blue Jay. Spoiler: he is probably gonna be really good.

 

 

Warning: Math - feel free to skip to the next dotted line for the conclusion

 

----------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Is 238 pitches really enough? In this post it says around 250 pitches is a good sample. I can't find any other references to a stabilization point, just several comments that mention it does stabilize very fast. In many blog posts regarding TIPS, its creator (our boy jFaS) would set the cutoff to 50 pitches. It would be interesting to dive into the math on when TIPS really stabilizes, but for now I will say that since jFaS said around 250 pitches is a good sample we will just trust him that 238 is close enough.

 

Unfortunately TIPS is kind of annoying to calculate because by definition one of the components is not searchable on fangraphs:

I then started to think about if there were any stats that were only dependent on the reaction between batter an pitcher that are skill based that FanGraphs does not have readily available?

 

I used Statcast data rather than pitchFX data for classifying Robbie Ray's pitches and for calculating the league average foul% since I couldn't find a reliable source of pitchFX data. jFaS also did this at times and comments on this practice here, mentioning that it will result in slightly different o-swing% values because they calculate the size of the strike zone differently. So the first thing I wanted to do was make sure that I was able to replicate the original results using my method and data sources. To do this I just needed to calculate the TIPS constant for 2013, and make sure it is the same as jFaS's original value of 2.57

 

From the original blog post:

TIPS = 6.5*O-Looking(PitchF/x)% – 9.75*SwStr% – 4.8*Foul% + C

C is a constant that changes from year to year to adjust to the ERA scale (to make an average TIPS = average ERA)

 

0.696 o-looking league average from fangraphs

0.094 SwStr% league average from fangraphs

3.87 league average era from fangraphs

 

But how to calculate foul%? I have different search terms available on Statcast, I can't get Contacts easily but Fouls and BIP are readily searchable. So using the equation from the original blog post and a bit of algebra:

 

I subtracted BIP (balls in play or FB+GB+LD+BU) from contacts (Contact%*Swing%*Pitches). This gave me the number of fouls.

therefore: CONTACTS - BIP = FOULS

rearranging: FOULS + BIP = CONTACTS

 

Foul/Contact or what I’m calling Foul%, had an R^2 of .239. That’s 2nd to only SwStr%. This got me excited

 

therefore: Foul% = Foul/Contacts

 

substituting:

Foul% = FOULS / FOULS + BIP

 

Easy enough from here to run a Statcast search on all pitchers and plug the results into Excel to get total Balls in Play and Total Fouls for all pitchers in 2013

 

total fouls = 119749

total BIP = 131848

foul% = 0.475955596

 

This allows us to calculate the 2013 TIPS constant as 2.547086859, which I say is damn near close enough to the original value of 2.57

 

Moving on now, since we know the method is sound:

 

Using the same logic I calculated the 2020 TIPS constant as 3.499557857, which is way higher than 2013 largely because of the much higher league average ERA

0.696 o-looking league average from fangraphs

0.113 SwStr% league average from fangraphs

0.500376637 foul% league average calculated from Statcast

4.52 league average era from fangraphs

 

All that's left to do is calculate Robbie Ray's TIPS as a Blue Jay using Statcast search.

 

use team = Blue Jays; pitchers = Robbie Ray

 

for fouls use pitch result = foul: 37 total fouls

 

for BIP use included stats = BIP: 36 total BIP

 

Therefore foul% = 37/(36+37)= 0.506849315

 

for o-looking%, use gameday zones 11 12 13 14 and pitch result = ball, ball in dirt, called strike or hbp: 0.3850

 

for swinging strike% just use pitch result = swinging strike and swinging strike (blocked): 0.131221719

 

Final calculation:

 

TIPS = 6.5*O-Looking% - 9.75*SwStr% - 4.8*Foul% + C

 

= 2.5025 - 1.279411765 - 2.432876712 + 3.50

 

----------------------------------------------------------------------

 

As a Blue Jay so far, Robbie Ray's TIPS = 2.29

 

In conclusion:

 

Ray started the year off by changing his delivery and had some terrible results. He's changed it back to one that actually makes sense, the one he used when he was an Ace. Given that this is such a substantial change, we should limit ourselves to the sample of games where he has been using the new delivery in order to predict his future success.

 

Using the best statistics we have available to analyze the sample size following the delivery change, we can predict Robbie Ray's ERA moving forward to be approximately 2.29

 

Atkins has most likely found our #2 Starter for the playoffs.

Edited September 18, 2020 by KevinGregg

[wilko]

Ray's an interesting dude. He has fantastic stuff, and has potential to be an ace. I hope the mechanics adjustment and change of scenery helps him. He's one of the acquisitions that I hope re-signs with the Jays.

[Laika]

I never saw those pitching ninja tweets and I had no idea Ray's overhauled delivery was so obvious.

 

The "short arming" thing is actually a trend. Lots of the Driveline guys do it. I don't know the exact justification but I think the theory is that it's a more consistent delivery than letting your arm extend and drag. Less movement, essentially, and it helps the arm get up on time.

 

 

Clearly though, it doesn't work for everybody. Overhauling pitching mechanics from bad to "good" can actually make a pitcher worse, if they can't develop the muscle memory for the improved mechanics!

[Jays24]

Not sure id be excited as you considering we only have him for 6 starts. He's a free agent and we'll have to pay almost the same amount if we want to keep him than we would have if he never came here.

[Laika]

BTW, welcome to the Good Posters Club. This post grants you a lifetime membership.

[connorp]

So starting tomorrow?

[connorp]

In positive news of today’s start, he only walked 4 in 4.1 innings of work. So he continues on the current trend of getting that BB rate down from 1 per inning.

[KevinGregg]

So starting tomorrow?

 

Possibly, time will tell. I haven't even caught up to live yet (still in the top of the 3rd) but he looks good to me so far.

 

Edit: in the 5th now, Take him out before the 3rd time through the order like everyone else and he is at 78 pitches 1 ER 4.1 IP. Harper smoked a middle middle fastball his 3rd time up after a walk on a questionable pitch to Cutch. Then 2 singles which score as inherited runners. This kind of sequencing luck is exactly why current ERA is bad at predicting future ERA

 

Honestly the worst thing that could have happened would have been for Ray to pitch 7 shutout innings and me to come out way later and suggest that he's an Ace when everyone already knows.

 

Note: I rushed out the post so it would be out before the game started (and it was still 30 minutes late..) and I spent the last 2 hours coming back to edit the original post to make it look perfect. I think it reads much better now! (apologies to those who read version 1.0)

 

Edit 2: reposted because the board deleted this comment when I tried to edit it in mobile mode. Recommendation: never use mobile mode

Edited September 18, 2020 by KevinGregg

[G-Snarls]

Ray's an interesting dude. He has fantastic stuff, and has potential to be an ace. I hope the mechanics adjustment and change of scenery helps him. He's one of the acquisitions that I hope re-signs with the Jays.

 

Me too

 

I'd be all over a reasonable cost 2 year extension

 

He's worth the gamble

[connorp]

Me too

 

I'd be all over a reasonable cost 2 year extension

 

He's worth the gamble

 

I’m for it as long as the GM isn’t thinking he’s the #2 SP lol

[KevinGregg]

I’m for it as long as the GM isn’t thinking he’s the #2 SP lol

 

I think that we need to acquire a bona-fide #2 or better this off-season. Robbie Ray would be a nice buy low candidate for sure in addition to a bigger splash.

I am saying that at this point Robbie looks like the best option for our #2 starter this year.

[Stangstag]

I think that we need to acquire a bona-fide #2 or better this off-season. Robbie Ray would be a nice buy low candidate for sure in addition to a bigger splash.

I am saying that at this point Robbie looks like the best option for our #2 starter this year.

 

Agreed

[connorp]

I’m not being a troll but I could definitely envision guys like Odorizzi and Minor...in addition to possible resigns like Walker and Ray

 

I hope they splurge though. Or deal for someone legit

[Laika]

I’m not being a troll but I could definitely envision guys like Odorizzi and Minor...in addition to possible resigns like Walker and Ray

 

I hope they splurge though. Or deal for someone legit

 

I don’t see who there is to splurge on though. I think it’s either a trade or a mid-range signing

[connorp]

I don’t see who there is to splurge on though. I think it’s either a trade or a mid-range signing

 

Just Bauer I guess. I guess I’m higher on Tanaka than most. Not as some #2 anchor but I just see him as a superior option to all the other guys I mentioned. I guess the velo dip is concerning but he’s also a control guy. There’s the UCL thing but that’s been takes about for like 7 years now

[Laika]

Probably an 80% chance the Yankees retain Tanaka.

[connorp]

4IP 0ER

 

What you’d expect from an Ace and projected 2.20 ERA pitcher. I guess you’d hope for him going a little longer though

[TheDragon]

4IP 0ER

 

What you’d expect from an Ace and projected 2.20 ERA pitcher. I guess you’d hope for him going a little longer though

 

He was barely hitting the strike zone tonight, just effectively wild.

[Dokken]

Me too

 

I'd be all over a reasonable cost 2 year extension

 

He's worth the gamble

 

I guess he is kind of comparable to F Liriano, circa 2016: nasty stuff but epically bad control issues. He is only 28 (turns 29 on Oct 1st) and is making $9.4 M this year. I am thinking an offer of 2 yr / $20M guaranteed, with an opt out after 1st year (preempt him going on the open market), might be enticing enough.

[Spanky99]

I guess he is kind of comparable to F Liriano, circa 2016: nasty stuff but epically bad control issues. He is only 28 (turns 29 on Oct 1st) and is making $9.4 M this year. I am thinking an offer of 2 yr / $20M guaranteed, with an opt out after 1st year (preempt him going on the open market), might be enticing enough.

 

Who cares the move was positive. Collective heart wins out!

[The Iceman]

Last night was the TOUGHEST lineup in baseball for a LHP to navigate. No exceptions. And Ray was solid.

[wilko]

Who cares the move was positive. Collective heart wins out!

 

[AdamGreenwood]

A 2-year-deal isn't cool.

You know what's cool? A billion-year-deall.

 

OK, realistically.

 

2/20 guaranteed with 3 more option years at 12/14/15, each with 1 MM buyouts.

[connorp]

Or you could take the $30m you’re giving the pile of poo that is Roark, Anderson, and Ray and put that towards one key player. Fill out the depth with guys like Shoemaker and Walker (when they were FA), or trade for cheap “depth” guys

 

I actually forget if Walker was FA. Thought he was on 1/2 deal

[glory]

Or you could take the $30m you’re giving the pile of poo that is Roark, Anderson, and Ray and put that towards one key player. Fill out the depth with guys like Shoemaker and Walker (when they were FA), or trade for cheap “depth” guys

 

I actually forget if Walker was FA. Thought he was on 1/2 deal

 

Agree with this. Jays don't need depth as much as they need high impact talent. They should be in on Springer, Bauer, etc. The depth pieces are probably going to be cheaper this off season than ever before given the economic environment, so stop with the Roark types and aim (way) higher.

 

With that said, if Ray is willing to sign a cheap one year deal, then go for it.

[Laika]

Or you could take the $30m you’re giving the pile of poo that is Roark, Anderson, and Ray and put that towards one key player. Fill out the depth with guys like Shoemaker and Walker (when they were FA), or trade for cheap “depth” guys

 

I actually forget if Walker was FA. Thought he was on 1/2 deal

 

Explain to me how Toronto takes the $12M owed to Roark and does anything with it other than pay Tanner Roark, you absolute f***ing genius you.

[connorp]

Explain to me how Toronto takes the $12M owed to Roark and does anything with it other than pay Tanner Roark, you absolute f***ing genius you.

 

It's not my fault you're such a tight-ass and have to be so literal and exact lol. The Roark, Anderson, and proposed Ray contracts all represent a strategy/approach and I was pointing out another approach.

[KevinGregg]

It's not my fault you're such a tight-ass and have to be so literal and exact lol. The Roark, Anderson, and proposed Ray contracts all represent a strategy/approach and I was pointing out another approach.

 

our payroll is way more than open enough to support 30M in decent pitching depth AND a Trevor Bauer. We need to have 9 decent starters to make it through the season next year so guys like Roark will still have value.

 

Come the playoffs next year hopefully we have Ryu and Pearson as our 1-2 and some kind of Trevor Bauer-esque signing (or trade??) as our 3rd option so dudes like Ray and Walker don't have to be relied on so heavily until/unless they actually prove themselves.

[KevinGregg]

This year is a different story. Robbie Ray is going to have to go off for us to have much of a chance, and thankfully it looks like he's up for the challenge

[The Iceman]

From Jason Stark. His year end awards.

 

MY NL CY YUK “BALLOT”: 1) Phillies bullpen, 2) Trevor Williams, 3) Stephen Matz, 4) Craig Kimbrel, 5) Madison Bumgarner.

 

SPECIAL BI-LEAGUAL CY YUK ACCLAIM: Robbie Ray, Brandon Workman.