New York Mets @ Toronto Blue Jays Game 3 of 3 Ryu Starts

[Orgfiller]

Dolis is nails.

[Daniel Labude]

Yeah I mean, there is the small issue that Soto is 100% better at hitting and not replacement level, and that Soto can actually run so ground balls arent as detrimental

 

But yeah, aside from that, same player

 

Changing the goalposts isn't a good look. All groundballs cant be bad and then now they are good lmao. Vlad isn't slow, actually a tick above average i believe. He just hits the ball too hard

 

Never said same player, just showing the people crying about GB% that its OK for a 21 year old who never tried to hit HRs in the minors. Other top young MLB players have similar GB%. If the balls he hit the wall on were slightly .01 higher in launch angle he would have 14 ish HRs. The crying is a joke. Let the coaches work with him and he will be right where we all thought he would be

[Orgfiller]

Changing the goalposts isn't a good look. All groundballs cant be bad and then now they are good lmao. Vlad isn't slow, actually a tick above average i believe. He just hits the ball too hard

 

Never said same player, just showing the people crying about GB% that its OK for a 21 year old who never tried to hit HRs in the minors. Other top young MLB players have similar GB%. If the balls he hit the wall on were slightly .01 higher in launch angle he would have 14 ish HRs. The crying is a joke. Let the coaches work with him and he will be right where we all thought he would be

 

Vlad is 18th percentile in sprint speed but okay. Your counter to that might be, oh he just got fat in quarantine he was much faster last year! 37th percentile.

[saskjayfan]

Changing the goalposts isn't a good look. All groundballs cant be bad and then now they are good lmao. Vlad isn't slow, actually a tick above average i believe. He just hits the ball too hard

 

Never said same player, just showing the people crying about GB% that its OK for a 21 year old who never tried to hit HRs in the minors. Other top young MLB players have similar GB%. If the balls he hit the wall on were slightly .01 higher in launch angle he would have 14 ish HRs. The crying is a joke. Let the coaches work with him and he will be right where we all thought he would be

 

Vlad is slow. His sprint speed is 25.3 which is quite a bit below league average. It's ticked up since the beginning of the season, so I think he's in a bit better shape. He's like any hitter...in a bit of a funk, but hopefully he gets hot and then our lineup will look really scary once Teoscar comes back and Rowdy makes a surprise appearance in the playoffs!

[DigitalRock]

Great win

[Daniel Labude]

Vlad is 18th percentile in sprint speed but okay. Your counter to that might be, oh he just got fat in quarantine he was much faster last year! 37th percentile.

 

Well he was just clocked at just above league average

[Daniel Labude]

Vlad is slow. His sprint speed is 25.3 which is quite a bit below league average. It's ticked up since the beginning of the season, so I think he's in a bit better shape. He's like any hitter...in a bit of a funk, but hopefully he gets hot and then our lineup will look really scary once Teoscar comes back and Rowdy makes a surprise appearance in the playoffs!

 

he went 4-30ish when they changed his hand placement. Went back this week. Making more contact and hard contact again, just needs to get more of them in the air

[King]

Never thought I would see the day when someone would argue Vlad has above average speed.

[Daniel Labude]

Never thought I would see the day when someone would argue Vlad has above average speed.

 

.000000001 above average is still a tick above average lmao

[Boxcar]

.000000001 above average is still a tick above average lmao

 

Lmao except he's not rofl lmao

[Boxcar]

Never thought I would see the day when someone would argue Vlad has above average speed.

 

Dude, one time he was stealing second and got clocked at an average speed. Forget all the other times.

[Deadpool]

Dude, one time he was stealing second and got clocked at an average speed. Forget all the other times.

 

Yeah, I'm as much of a Vladdie booster as anyone around here, but like... I can't get behind "he's got average speed." He's slow and fat (and I still expect him to succeed despite those things, though y'know... lose some f***in' weight dude...)

[Stangstag]

Dolis is nails.

 

Nails on a chalkboard, sure

[Dokken]

Nails on a chalkboard, sure

 

Dolis has an 'interesting' collection of numbers in his work so far this season (excludes Sunday) per Fangraphs:

 

10.55 K/9; 5.09 BB/9, 84.4 Ave EV, .176 BA against, 1.17 WHIP

 

1.69 ERA, 3.29 FIP, 4.23 xFIP

 

1.69 ERA looks good, but yeah that 4.23 xFIP tells the story of why you responded as you did. I guess all the walks are the biggest issue. Even still a 1.17 WHIP is pretty good.

 

Bottom line: the guy is only making $1M (prorated) this year and the Jays have an option for a 2nd year at $1 M. Seems like a no-brainer to keep him around at that price.

[Dokken]

They should really not let Roark start at Yankee Stadium. Let Merryweather and Hatch piggyback that game instead. Game is way to important.

 

I am thinking that considering the way Roark has pitched so far this season, it would be great for the Jays if he walked off the team in response to being sent to the BP. He seems to have a high enough opinion of himself, that he may figure he can get at least the same from another team in 2021 as the Jays would have owed ($12M). Roark at the moment reminds me of Anibal Sanchez circa 2017 (had gradually gone from 5.9 fWAR in 2013 to 0.5 fWAR in 2017). Sanchez worked to retool his pitch reperatoire in 2018 (especially more use of a cutter) and had 2.5 fWAR in both 2018 and 2019. Roark can't just keep 'dieseling' along as he is right now and be successful - adjust or GTFO!

[Stangstag]

I am thinking that considering the way Roark has pitched so far this season, it would be great for the Jays if he walked off the team in response to being sent to the BP. He seems to have a high enough opinion of himself, that he may figure he can get at least the same from another team in 2021 as the Jays would have owed ($12M). Roark at the moment reminds me of Anibal Sanchez circa 2017 (had gradually gone from 5.9 fWAR in 2013 to 0.5 fWAR in 2017). Sanchez worked to retool his pitch reperatoire in 2018 (especially more use of a cutter) and had 2.5 fWAR in both 2018 and 2019. Roark can't just keep 'dieseling' along as he is right now and be successful - adjust or GTFO!

 

Would be funny if they just left Roark out to dry for his next start. Let him give up 10 runs and keep pitching lol

[Boxcar]

Dolis has an 'interesting' collection of numbers in his work so far this season (excludes Sunday) per Fangraphs:

 

10.55 K/9; 5.09 BB/9, 84.4 Ave EV, .176 BA against, 1.17 WHIP

 

1.69 ERA, 3.29 FIP, 4.23 xFIP

 

1.69 ERA looks good, but yeah that 4.23 xFIP tells the story of why you responded as you did. I guess all the walks are the biggest issue. Even still a 1.17 WHIP is pretty good.

 

Bottom line: the guy is only making $1M (prorated) this year and the Jays have an option for a 2nd year at $1 M. Seems like a no-brainer to keep him around at that price.

 

I take xFIP with a grain of salt. If he's limiting batters to an average exit velo of 84.4, that's going to reduce the home run rate. Whether that's sustainable or not I guess is the question, but I kinda feel like xFIP is gonna go the way of the dinosaur with all the statcast info.

 

The evolution of DIPS has been very interesting. First, there was the widely accepted theory that pitchers had no control over their BABIP. Pretty sure this is now a thing of the past; some pitchers are able to suppress BABIP to a degree, and what's interesting about that is that it's, in some cases, made ERA a better measuring stick for some pitchers. Guy that immediately comes to mind is Darren O'Day.

 

Then now the working theory with xFIP is that, in theory, every pitcher should have the same number of fly balls being converted to home runs, but I think this is also going by the way side as we have access to more information. Some guys appear to have a legitimate skill when it comes to limiting hard contact. I'd really like to have seen the statcast numbers for a guy like Mariano Rivera, who had one of the nastiest cut fastballs of all time and was surely excellent at inducing weak contact because he was consistently able to keep the ball off the barrel of the bat.

 

All this to say, Dolis has some command issues that I think might iron out in time. If not, I don't really think he's going to regress to his xFIP as the stats so far and watching him pitch, indicate that he's good at inducing soft contact. If I'm not wrong, these numbers should stabilize fairly quickly as they are per at bat based data points. If you all remember, JFaS (autocorrect tried to change that to Judas, accurate) invented TIPS, which got him some widespread acclaim as one of the first DIPS metrics to incorporate per pitch events which resulted in a far superior ERA estimator for relievers, who typically had much fewer innings pitched per year and FIP and xFIP tended to do a poor job of capturing their performance.

 

All this to say, Dolis might actually be really good. He turns your average hitter into Danny Jansen, which is a good thing for the Jays since Danny Jansen f***ing sucks *******s.

 

I might be really dumb for writing this

[Brownie19]

I take xFIP with a grain of salt. If he's limiting batters to an average exit velo of 84.4, that's going to reduce the home run rate. Whether that's sustainable or not I guess is the question, but I kinda feel like xFIP is gonna go the way of the dinosaur with all the statcast info.

 

The evolution of DIPS has been very interesting. First, there was the widely accepted theory that pitchers had no control over their BABIP. Pretty sure this is now a thing of the past; some pitchers are able to suppress BABIP to a degree, and what's interesting about that is that it's, in some cases, made ERA a better measuring stick for some pitchers. Guy that immediately comes to mind is Darren O'Day.

 

Then now the working theory with xFIP is that, in theory, every pitcher should have the same number of fly balls being converted to home runs, but I think this is also going by the way side as we have access to more information. Some guys appear to have a legitimate skill when it comes to limiting hard contact. I'd really like to have seen the statcast numbers for a guy like Mariano Rivera, who had one of the nastiest cut fastballs of all time and was surely excellent at inducing weak contact because he was consistently able to keep the ball off the barrel of the bat.

 

All this to say, Dolis has some command issues that I think might iron out in time. If not, I don't really think he's going to regress to his xFIP as the stats so far and watching him pitch, indicate that he's good at inducing soft contact. If I'm not wrong, these numbers should stabilize fairly quickly as they are per at bat based data points. If you all remember, JFaS (autocorrect tried to change that to Judas, accurate) invented TIPS, which got him some widespread acclaim as one of the first DIPS metrics to incorporate per pitch events which resulted in a far superior ERA estimator for relievers, who typically had much fewer innings pitched per year and FIP and xFIP tended to do a poor job of capturing their performance.

 

All this to say, Dolis might actually be really good. He turns your average hitter into Danny Jansen, which is a good thing for the Jays since Danny Jansen f***ing sucks *******s.

 

I might be really dumb for writing this

 

"might"?

[Deadpool]

I take xFIP with a grain of salt. If he's limiting batters to an average exit velo of 84.4, that's going to reduce the home run rate. Whether that's sustainable or not I guess is the question, but I kinda feel like xFIP is gonna go the way of the dinosaur with all the statcast info.

 

The evolution of DIPS has been very interesting. First, there was the widely accepted theory that pitchers had no control over their BABIP. Pretty sure this is now a thing of the past; some pitchers are able to suppress BABIP to a degree, and what's interesting about that is that it's, in some cases, made ERA a better measuring stick for some pitchers. Guy that immediately comes to mind is Darren O'Day.

 

Then now the working theory with xFIP is that, in theory, every pitcher should have the same number of fly balls being converted to home runs, but I think this is also going by the way side as we have access to more information. Some guys appear to have a legitimate skill when it comes to limiting hard contact. I'd really like to have seen the statcast numbers for a guy like Mariano Rivera, who had one of the nastiest cut fastballs of all time and was surely excellent at inducing weak contact because he was consistently able to keep the ball off the barrel of the bat.

 

All this to say, Dolis has some command issues that I think might iron out in time. If not, I don't really think he's going to regress to his xFIP as the stats so far and watching him pitch, indicate that he's good at inducing soft contact. If I'm not wrong, these numbers should stabilize fairly quickly as they are per at bat based data points. If you all remember, JFaS (autocorrect tried to change that to Judas, accurate) invented TIPS, which got him some widespread acclaim as one of the first DIPS metrics to incorporate per pitch events which resulted in a far superior ERA estimator for relievers, who typically had much fewer innings pitched per year and FIP and xFIP tended to do a poor job of capturing their performance.

 

All this to say, Dolis might actually be really good. He turns your average hitter into Danny Jansen, which is a good thing for the Jays since Danny Jansen f***ing sucks *******s.

 

I might be really dumb for writing this

 

If you are correct, and this is so far out of my area of expertise that I couldn't begin to know if you were or not, then it's likely that Dolis' splitter works in a similar way to suppress hard contact that Rivera's cutter did. It makes sense that a late movement pitch that is hard to barrel up would be more difficult to hit hard than a straight 4 seamer, particularly if the movement is varied between pitches.