Vlad Jr. to Indy Ball

[Spanky99]

One of the biggest things that pisses me off about Vladdy is that he constantly goes for the "Check the reply" or his "Safe" when he's running into 1B. It makes him look like a dumbass.

 

Copious amount of ball players do this.

[Laika]

If I was the Jays hitting coach all I would let Vladdy do in BP is pull homers

 

It's just a home run derby

 

He practices nothing other than pulling homers

[Spanky99]

If I was the Jays hitting coach all I would let Vladdy do in BP is pull homers

 

It's just a home run derby

 

He practices nothing other than pulling homers

 

It's not a bad idea, lol.

[Sorrow]

I think Guerrero's swing is mechanically broken. It looks to me like his weight transfer is basically not happening at all anymore and it's leading to him being late on everything. I don't think he's going to end the year as a 130 wRC+ bat that his skill set requires to actually be a useful player and if he's not traded sometime this season or early in the off season I imagine he's a non-tender candidate.

 

I know he's under performing is his expected stats so far this season, and did in 2023, his sweet spot and barrels have dropped from a peak of 50th & 90th percentile in 2021 to 79 & 5 in 2022, 72 & 28 in 2023 and 65 & 5 in 2024. His fly ball percentage, most of his home runs are classified as fly balls, has dropped from 36.5% with only 7.7% of his balls in play being infield flies to 28.8% and 10.5% being infield flies. Ground ball rate has gone from 44.8% to 51.5%. He stills hits the ball hard as f*** but I think because he's so late on everything with zero discipline of the strike zone and likely pushing to try and make stuff happen he's made himself a useless player.

 

I'd honestly rather see Horwitz starting at 1B for the rest of the season.

[hanton]

Can't fix hitting mechanics in season - they had all friggin off season to do it, and now EE is also in his ear

[Olerud363]

I think Guerrero's swing is mechanically broken. It looks to me like his weight transfer is basically not happening at all anymore and it's leading to him being late on everything. I don't think he's going to end the year as a 130 wRC+ bat that his skill set requires to actually be a useful player and if he's not traded sometime this season or early in the off season I imagine he's a non-tender candidate.

 

I know he's under performing is his expected stats so far this season, and did in 2023, his sweet spot and barrels have dropped from a peak of 50th & 90th percentile in 2021 to 79 & 5 in 2022, 72 & 28 in 2023 and 65 & 5 in 2024. His fly ball percentage, most of his home runs are classified as fly balls, has dropped from 36.5% with only 7.7% of his balls in play being infield flies to 28.8% and 10.5% being infield flies. Ground ball rate has gone from 44.8% to 51.5%. He stills hits the ball hard as f*** but I think because he's so late on everything with zero discipline of the strike zone and likely pushing to try and make stuff happen he's made himself a useless player.

 

I'd honestly rather see Horwitz starting at 1B for the rest of the season.

 

I'm no super scout but he just he had a 91 mph fastball right down the middle and missed it. This is just getting hard to watch. I think he missed a bunch of 90 mph cookies yesterday too.

[Olerud363]

I think Guerrero's swing is mechanically broken. It looks to me like his weight transfer is basically not happening at all anymore and it's leading to him being late on everything. I don't think he's going to end the year as a 130 wRC+ bat that his skill set requires to actually be a useful player and if he's not traded sometime this season or early in the off season I imagine he's a non-tender candidate.

 

I know he's under performing is his expected stats so far this season, and did in 2023, his sweet spot and barrels have dropped from a peak of 50th & 90th percentile in 2021 to 79 & 5 in 2022, 72 & 28 in 2023 and 65 & 5 in 2024. His fly ball percentage, most of his home runs are classified as fly balls, has dropped from 36.5% with only 7.7% of his balls in play being infield flies to 28.8% and 10.5% being infield flies. Ground ball rate has gone from 44.8% to 51.5%. He stills hits the ball hard as f*** but I think because he's so late on everything with zero discipline of the strike zone and likely pushing to try and make stuff happen he's made himself a useless player.

 

I'd honestly rather see Horwitz starting at 1B for the rest of the season.

 

 

It is time. Commissioner needs to intervene for the good of the game and force Toronto to trade Vlad + 20 million dollars to the Giants for a prospect (not in the Giants top 30).

 

Alternatively they can send him to the Red Sox for their top 20 prospect and only 10 million.

 

Toronto can get more from the Red Sox but will have to put up with him in the division, or less from the Giants.

 

For the good of the game get Vlad out of Toronto and somewhere that can help him.

[goldbug103]

Could a stint in triple aaa help this epic fat bust relearn how to hit mistake pitches ? He’s not helping the big league club and blocking Horwitz.

[burlingtonbandit]

As frustrating as Vladdy has been you don't send him down for Spencer f***ing Horowitz lol. His numbers look great in AAA but he hits the ball into the ground just as much as Vladdy and with no power either.

[Stangstag]

Copious amount of ball players do this.

 

And it’s always f***ing dumb

[Stangstag]

Could a stint in triple aaa help this epic fat bust relearn how to hit mistake pitches ? He’s not helping the big league club and blocking Horwitz.

 

At this point I honestly wouldn’t be surprised if Vlad struggled in AAA if he was sent down

[Spanky99]

And it’s always f***ing dumb

 

Unless you played.

[Masterbather]

Can't fix hitting mechanics in season - they had all friggin off season to do it, and now EE is also in his ear

 

I would take everyone else out of his ear and leave EE in there. Can't possibly make things worse.

 

f*** it, we may be in emergency Cito Gaston territory with Vladdy.

[Stangstag]

Unless you played.

 

Of course I played. Im also smart enough to understand im not going to sway the ump’s call by calling myself safe. And with replay available now, its not like you’re going to fool anyone.

 

Balls and strikes are way more understandable when players get upset over, because umps get those wrong often and its hard to know in the moment.

[Olerud363]

As frustrating as Vladdy has been you don't send him down for Spencer f***ing Horowitz lol. His numbers look great in AAA but he hits the ball into the ground just as much as Vladdy and with no power either.

 

Never know how someone's defense will rate so the hope with Horwitz would be he that he isn't -20 defense... a solid .280 .360 .430 hitter beats Vlad even with 15 homer power.

 

VGJR -20 defense, 18 homer power now, the exit velocity's are deceiving because he gets bad spin and the ball doesn't go as far as the exit velocity predicts even when he gets it in the air.

 

The Vlad/Bo era is over. 0 playoff wins, but on Vlad Guerrero release day it starts anew. November 2024 a new era will begin hopefully they trade what they can and rebuild in 3 years.

[jaysthebest]

Vladditto is making $20M this year and it is nonsense.

[Olerud363]

Never know how someone's defense will rate so the hope with Horwitz would be he that he isn't -20 defense... a solid .280 .360 .430 hitter beats Vlad even with 15 homer power.

 

VGJR -20 defense, 18 homer power now, the exit velocity's are deceiving because he gets bad spin and the ball doesn't go as far as the exit velocity predicts even when he gets it in the air.

 

The Vlad/Bo era is over. 0 playoff wins, but on Vlad Guerrero release day it starts anew. November 2024 a new era will begin hopefully they trade what they can and rebuild in 3 years.

 

Announcer1 - Swing and a belt. That thing is hammerred. Look at that. High and deep and .... caught. Caught on the warning track by the center fielder.

 

Announcer2 - Well according to stats cast that thing was the hardest hit ball any Blue Jays has hit on the road trip, and at the perfect angle of 31 degrees really goes to show you the talent Guerrero has.

 

Announcer1 - Yeah, launching at 30 with a 110 exit velocity is something only a select few can do. Judge, Ohtani, Guerrero. According to hard hit rate the three best. Unbelievable stuff from these guys.

 

Announcer2 - Vlad is so under-rated by those who judge him by his 22 homers and .250 average and 31 double plays... the exit velocities tell a completely different.

 

Announcer1 - Do you think he is getting dead balls or maybe the spin isn't right off his bat?

 

Announcer2 - Perhaps a bit of both, but those 110 mph 30 degree fly ball outs are still a thing of beauty.

[jaysthebest]

The sad thing is that we all know Vladdy is going to remain batting 2nd or 3rd tomorrow and stick at 1B.

[BaseballIsLife]

Maybe a little dramatic but it’s time to cut ties.

[BTS]

Tonight's game was Rendon-esque. Just a brutal, brutal game from him. It deserves a benching.

[jaysthebest]

Since September 2nd, 2022, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has the 8th lowest fWAR of any player with a minimum of 800 PA.

[Stangstag]

Maybe a little dramatic but it’s time to cut ties.

 

Trade Vlad for peanuts and sign Naylor to a hometown discount in the offseason.

[Omar]

Trade Vlad for peanuts and sign Naylor to a hometown discount in the offseason.

 

Exchange one fatty for another? No thanks.

[43211234]

He was supposed to be a phenom but he's on the Billy Butler career trajectory.

[Spanky99]

Trade Vlad for peanuts and sign Naylor to a hometown discount in the offseason.

 

Naylor isn't a FA til '26

[Olerud363]

It must be mental or something. The 'can only hit in minor league ballparks' is 100% true (in both minors and majors). And that is the key to the mystery.

 

The idiot casuals think minor league ballparks are small and that is why he hits there. Not true at all, but the data does say he only hit's really well in minor league ball parks.

 

Reasons

 

1. Mental. Relaxed vibe at minor league ballparks. No pressure. Hardly any fans and he was in the zone in Dunnedin, New Hampshire and Buffalo.

 

2. ADD. Slightly related to 1, but just simply too many distractions in MLB parks (lights, fans shouting, etc.) and can't focus.

 

3. Out on the town. Too much night life and things to do in the big cities and not focusing on games.

 

4. Visual. Something about the second deck and all the lights, bright screens, flashing s*** etc., related to 2, but not ADD. Just vision related somehow.

 

5. Can't deal with advanced game prep by opposition - in Minors and during Covid (when he played in minor league parks) advanced scouting and game prep was down, when the advanced scouting and pitching patterns customized to Vlad's weaknesses returned Vlad couldn't deal with it.

 

6. Random - Just happened to his one career multi-month hot stretch curing Covid in the minor league parks.

[Olerud363]

Ballparks at which he has the most plate appearances (90+)

 

TD Ballpark Dunnedin 96 PA .410 .521 .897

Sahlen Field Buffalo 219 PA 322 .398 .656

Fenway Park 170 PA .336 .421 .592

Camden Yards 170 PA .342 .387 .537

Yankee Stadium 170 PA .272 .333 .576

Rogers Center 1100 PA .257 .330 .446

Tropicana 195 PA .244 .333 .395

 

What potential random patterns are there here?

 

Not good in the 2 domes and 2 artificial turf parks

Not good in cities that start with T

The Tropicana stuff may be related to data though I think he hits fine against TBR at home

[Joltin Joe]

I hope Jays trade Vlad. He's too lackadaisical for me. If he played intense he be all time great. But he just can't figure it out!!

 

Power hitting first baseman not that hard to replace.

 

I remember few years ago everybody on here wanted him locked up for 10 years. Glad we never

[Olerud363]

Baseball is a game of Joy. Fathers bring sons to see great players. Mothers bring sons to see great players, if the father is a deadbeat the mother will bring the son. The father will bring the daughter who has been watching Caitlin Clark all spring and now they need a new sport to watch. And the son should for sure should be watching Caitlin Clark too, sorry. Your f***ing white as bread son from Vaughn (or Eastern Indian as f*** son I guess) will not be dunking and breaking backboards so is better off to model his game on Caitlin Clark... but I disgress, the point is fans love greatness, which is why tickets to the Cailtin Clark NCAA games were going for like 1000 bucks and the ticket the night before 30 bucks. True story.

 

Back to point. Fans love greatness. Greatness brings them Joy. When my Dad brought me to exhibition stadium and a young Fred McGriff was hitting them 470 feet into the end zone against the White Sox in 1988 it got me hooked on the game. You can't win every year, but if you have a great player you can watch him every year for a decade and he becomes part of the fabric of the city.

 

So all the preamble out of the way let's look at how some of the greats performed in our great city of Toronto and the Joy they brought us when we went to the once crappy but now renovated old ballpark!

 

Carlos Delgado, the closest to a generational home grown player we've had, hit .280 .404 .580 in Rogers Center and brought the fans many thrills including a 4 homer game, watch here to see how the greats launch them https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2xq5_TxTdkI.

 

Jose Bautista had the best 6 year run. His overall line at rogers center was .260 .380 .530, but brought down a bit by mediocre first and last year at Rogers center. In his prime seasons in Rogers Center (2010 and 2011) he hit 282 .412 .737 with 33 homeruns and .305 .454 .609 with 20 homeruns. That is right. In 2010 Jose Bautista gave the home fans 33 thrilling Rogers Center homeruns to cheer for (he hit 21 others for the road fans). Though he only hit 50 homeruns once, he thrilled home crowd for the next few years including this boss moment https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-UdsVO7HaJg.

 

Alas not every season nor every player is great. Some are working men just doing their jobs. They don't thrill us regularly with deep drives and incredible hitting. They don't have the eye of the eagle and get on base 40% or more. You don't have a great chance of seeing them hit a laser into the second deck or drive in the winning run, sometimes they do just not as often these average men...

 

Travis Snider - .266 .325 .466 at Rogers Center

Eric Hinske - .249 .338 .425 at Rogers Center

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - .257 .330 .446 at Rogers Center

Edited April 24, 2024 by Olerud363

[polar bear]

Announcer1 - Swing and a belt. That thing is hammerred. Look at that. High and deep and .... caught. Caught on the warning track by the center fielder.

 

Announcer2 - Well according to stats cast that thing was the hardest hit ball any Blue Jays has hit on the road trip, and at the perfect angle of 31 degrees really goes to show you the talent Guerrero has.

 

Announcer1 - Yeah, launching at 30 with a 110 exit velocity is something only a select few can do. Judge, Ohtani, Guerrero. According to hard hit rate the three best. Unbelievable stuff from these guys.

 

Announcer2 - Vlad is so under-rated by those who judge him by his 22 homers and .250 average and 31 double plays... the exit velocities tell a completely different.

 

Announcer1 - Do you think he is getting dead balls or maybe the spin isn't right off his bat?

 

Announcer2 - Perhaps a bit of both, but those 110 mph 30 degree fly ball outs are still a thing of beauty.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Simple solution,MUTE.I have done it for a few years now.