Vlad Jr. to Indy Ball

[BigCecil]

Again, I don't know how those names I suggested were outrageous according to you. You're pretty much trading 2 years of Vlad for either a bat or arm with one-year of control left and who unlikely will sign extensions with their current clubs. We've seen trade value for players/pitchers diminish when a player or pitcher only has one-year left of control. Heck, look at the Jays when they had Josh Donaldson as an example.

 

As for the Padres, they're likely looking to shake things up this offseason.

 

Alonso + for Vlad might make sense - depending entirely on the + given the control. Change of scenery for both players. This year Alonso has hit a lot of bombs as usual and his WAR is a little better than Vlads was in 2022. 2.9.

[jaysthebest]

I'm a little afraid our FO will pay Vlad a lot for his extension while thinking he is going to have the 2021 season again.

[jaysblue]

Alonso + for Vlad might make sense - depending entirely on the + given the control. Change of scenery for both players. This year Alonso has hit a lot of bombs as usual and his WAR is a little better than Vlads was in 2022. 2.9.

 

Alonso should be good for a 3-4 WAR season with 35-40 HR's. That's pretty much his ceiling and floor. Vladdy has much higher upside, though a lower floor as we've seen this season. Regardless, trading Vladdy won't be easy.

[Laika]

You keep Vlad because he could easily put up 5 WAR for 20M. You are the only team that has the luxury of taking that gamble. Of course it could backfire like it has this year but you don’t really have a choice unless someone wants to pay like 80% of his value for two years of control which I doubt they do

 

Yeah he's like Cody Bellinger. Dodgers let him go to save $18M in projected final arb. Cubs have him equal money and are ecstatic.

[jaysblue]

Yeah he's like Cody Bellinger. Dodgers let him go to save $18M in projected final arb. Cubs have him equal money and are ecstatic.

 

I don't think anyone on here was suggesting the Jays non-tender Vlad lol.

[Brownie19]

I don't think anyone on here was suggesting the Jays non-tender Vlad lol.

 

There have been a few posters who suggested it may get to that point. Paying $20M for a 0.5 WAR player isn't a great idea.

[Laika]

I don't think anyone on here was suggesting the Jays non-tender Vlad lol.

 

It's been suggested. Not for 2024 but if he does this again...

[Stangstag]

Yeah he's like Cody Bellinger. Dodgers let him go to save $18M in projected final arb. Cubs have him equal money and are ecstatic.

 

That's a decent parallel. Bellinger was a lot worse with the bat in 2021/2022, but he still played a premium position so it made sense to hold onto him. And it made sense to release him after 2 full seasons of being s***.

 

We could see a similar situation with Vlad if he has a mediocre 2024.

[Daniel Labude]

I don't think anyone on here was suggesting the Jays non-tender Vlad lol.

 

Half the board man, where have you been?

[L54]

Yeah he's like Cody Bellinger. Dodgers let him go to save $18M in projected final arb. Cubs have him equal money and are ecstatic.

 

Exactly what I was thinking

 

If you compare it to free agency there are zero players available who you can sign to a one year deal with 5 win upside

 

It’s a s***** spot to be in but their hands are tied. And I’d tie Vlad’s hands to a treadmill

[L54]

Again, I don't know how those names I suggested were outrageous according to you. You're pretty much trading 2 years of Vlad for either a bat or arm with one-year of control left and who unlikely will sign extensions with their current clubs. We've seen trade value for players/pitchers diminish when a player or pitcher only has one-year left of control. Heck, look at the Jays when they had Josh Donaldson as an example.

 

As for the Padres, they're likely looking to shake things up this offseason.

 

I think Soto and Tatis are outrageous suggestions yes. They are both in the middle of 4 WAR seasons and FTJ is signed through like 2040.

 

The two pitchers sure I could see Milwaukee doing that I guess

 

I’m holding Vlad. That’s my take. No way I move him for a year of a starting pitcher. He still has elite skills but with a ten cent brain and that’s his problem

[WryNGinger]

Yeah he's like Cody Bellinger. Dodgers let him go to save $18M in projected final arb. Cubs have him equal money and are ecstatic.

 

Would Bellinger have had the same results if he had stayed? That's always the conundrum with players not living up to their potential in any sport. It's a proven fact that some dudes need a slap wake call by being shipped out before they focus and get their s*** together. And some get shipped and continue to suck...

[BigCecil]

There is an argument for non tender of Vlad. 0.5 WAR is just that. Buts its a bad argument.

 

The cost of his arb year is worth the risk given his EVs and upside potential returning closer to '21 & '22 production. Pretty simple.

 

If he is less than a WAR again in 2024, and still around, it might be worth looking at for '25.

[metafour]

I'm a little afraid our FO will pay Vlad a lot for his extension while thinking he is going to have the 2021 season again.

 

I don't think so man. Shatkins was brought in to reduce the payroll, remember? They're probably going to just non-tender him to save the $$.

[Olerud363]

I remember Tango saying happen because people are answering different questions, or not answering... I have three questions. Are these questions really that outlandish?

 

Question 1: What will Vlad's 2024 and 2025 Salary be in comparison to his 2023 performance?

 

Question 2: What are the chances that Vlad's 2024 performance is similar to his 2023 performance?

 

Question 3: What are the chances that a cold hearted front office releases a player as loved as Vladimir Guerrero jr, if his salary is way above his performance level.

 

While perhaps somewhere I said 'release him 15 minutes after today's game' in a moment of frustration I don't think I ever seriously thought Guerrero was getting released after this season, not sure why people are accusing me of that. What I have said is quite logical

 

If his counting stats in 2024 are high, but WAR low, and arbitration salary high what do you do in 2025?

 

Most people are at least acknowledging it's a fair question. No one (including myself) say release him this November

 

LTBF wants to sign him to a 12 year 380 million dollar contract though.

[Olerud363]

I made the Gary Shefield comparison before his big 2021 season, and age 24 he is still kind of tracking Shefield

 

Shefield had the exact same type season at age 24, mediocre power, mediocre walks, historically bad defense, 0.6 WAR coming off of a 6 WAR season

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/gary-sheffield/114/stats?position=OF

 

So what happened next? Shefield's walk rate exploded and his defense went from the worst ever to acceptably bad.

 

Vlad needs to make the same progression. Maybe he will.

[Brownie19]

I made the Gary Shefield comparison before his big 2021 season, and age 24 he is still kind of tracking Shefield

 

Shefield had the exact same type season at age 24, mediocre power, mediocre walks, historically bad defense, 0.6 WAR coming off of a 6 WAR season

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/gary-sheffield/114/stats?position=OF

 

So what happened next? Shefield's walk rate exploded and his defense went from the worst ever to acceptably bad.

 

Vlad needs to make the same progression. Maybe he will.

 

Crazy to see Sheff have a 172 wRC+ season at age 23 with a 7.8 BB%, 6.5 K% rates - and then at age 27, he had a 185 wRC+ season with 21 BB% and a 9.7 K%

[Spanky99]

There is an argument for non tender of Vlad. 0.5 WAR is just that. Buts its a bad argument.

 

The cost of his arb year is worth the risk given his EVs and upside potential returning closer to '21 & '22 production. Pretty simple.

 

If he is less than a WAR again in 2024, and still around, it might be worth looking at for '25.

 

Yeah, we'll see this time next year, they won't sell low unless it makes sense.

[jaysblue]

I think Soto and Tatis are outrageous suggestions yes. They are both in the middle of 4 WAR seasons and FTJ is signed through like 2040.

 

The two pitchers sure I could see Milwaukee doing that I guess

 

I’m holding Vlad. That’s my take. No way I move him for a year of a starting pitcher. He still has elite skills but with a ten cent brain and that’s his problem

 

If the Padres know they can't re-sign Soto to an extension, they might prefer 2 years of Vladdy hoping he can put up a monster season. Again, would involve multiple pieces. Yeah FTJ is highly unlikely but I'm sure he's not untouchable as he was two years ago.

 

I suggested Burnes or Woodruff as pieces when I was responding to another post asking about the Brewers as a trade candidate. I also stated that the Brewers weren't really exciting trade partners for Vlad and that it's better to keep Vladdy even if it was for one of those two arms.

 

Again, I'm just throwing out trading suggestions or names off the top of my head when it comes to Vladdy. Not many other posters have. So why don't you name some names? None of the names I listed were outrageous. You're just trying to pick an argument to sound like a smart ass.

[jaysblue]

It's been suggested. Not for 2024 but if he does this again...

 

Suggested by prominent posters or trolls?

[jaysblue]

Yeah, we'll see this time next year, they won't sell low unless it makes sense.

 

Bravo response!

[jaysblue]

Crazy to see Sheff have a 172 wRC+ season at age 23 with a 7.8 BB%, 6.5 K% rates - and then at age 27, he had a 185 wRC+ season with 21 BB% and a 9.7 K%

 

If Vlad can turn his career similar to Sheff, would be awesome!

[jaysblue]

There is an argument for non tender of Vlad. 0.5 WAR is just that. Buts its a bad argument.

 

The cost of his arb year is worth the risk given his EVs and upside potential returning closer to '21 & '22 production. Pretty simple.

 

If he is less than a WAR again in 2024, and still around, it might be worth looking at for '25.

 

Yeah I think it's an awful idea to non-tender him. Would rather try to trade him before that which they probably could do or just keep him for both years hoping he has a monster season.

 

If he less than a WAR in 2024 again, likely would only be able to trade for peanuts so wouldn't be worth it. That's why if the Jays want to move him, probably would have to be this offseason regardless.

[Spanky99]

Bravo response!

 

It's straight forward, no?

[Spanky99]

If Vlad can turn his career similar to Sheff, would be awesome!

 

Sure would be nice, I loved the original, Big Sheff.

[jaysblue]

It's straight forward, no?

 

I would have wrote an essay.

[Spanky99]

I would have wrote an essay.

 

lol

[Omar]

Crazy to see Sheff have a 172 wRC+ season at age 23 with a 7.8 BB%, 6.5 K% rates - and then at age 27, he had a 185 wRC+ season with 21 BB% and a 9.7 K%

 

Roids.

[L54]

If the Padres know they can't re-sign Soto to an extension, they might prefer 2 years of Vladdy hoping he can put up a monster season. Again, would involve multiple pieces. Yeah FTJ is highly unlikely but I'm sure he's not untouchable as he was two years ago.

 

I suggested Burnes or Woodruff as pieces when I was responding to another post asking about the Brewers as a trade candidate. I also stated that the Brewers weren't really exciting trade partners for Vlad and that it's better to keep Vladdy even if it was for one of those two arms.

 

Again, I'm just throwing out trading suggestions or names off the top of my head when it comes to Vladdy. Not many other posters have. So why don't you name some names? None of the names I listed were outrageous. You're just trying to pick an argument to sound like a smart ass.

 

I’ll be honest I haven’t given trade scenarios any thought because I don’t see them trading him

[Spanky99]

I’ll be honest I haven’t given trade scenarios any thought because I don’t see them trading him

 

Same, not happening.