Vlad Jr. to Indy Ball

[Brownie19]

You can have both. You can enjoy the player and pay attention to the stats. Same could be said about anyone (not that everyone is having a historical season, I just mean if you forgot about the stats you can enjoy all your favourite players more).

 

Fernando Tatis - dynamic hitter, baserunner and can play short stop... just enjoy the season and forget that he wasn't playing short stop well and is now in left field (injury related but still)

 

Javier Baez - No one is as exciting as him. Just forget about the sub .300 on base percentage and enjoy the season.

 

Joe Panik - A veteran guy, sweet left handed swing, doesn't try to kill the ball, hustles... don't look at the stats just enjoy the veteran presence.

 

Give it a rest. He's doing something we've never seen anyone do before. Please, for the love of god, don't compare this to Joe Panik.

[connorp]

Give it a rest. He's doing something we've never seen anyone do before. Please, for the love of god, don't compare this to Joe Panik.

 

He’s searching for new material now that Vlad is back

[AMS528]

You can have both. You can enjoy the player and pay attention to the stats. Same could be said about anyone (not that everyone is having a historical season, I just mean if you forgot about the stats you can enjoy all your favourite players more).

 

Fernando Tatis - dynamic hitter, baserunner and can play short stop... just enjoy the season and forget that he wasn't playing short stop well and is now in left field (injury related but still)

 

Javier Baez - No one is as exciting as him. Just forget about the sub .300 on base percentage and enjoy the season.

 

Joe Panik - A veteran guy, sweet left handed swing, doesn't try to kill the ball, hustles... don't look at the stats just enjoy the veteran presence.

 

This is just purposely being obtuse to the point of meaninglessness. There's nothing of value in what you wrote there.

 

Statistically has any player had a 40 HR/20SB season while pitching 100+ innings with a sub 3 earned run average and striking out over 10 batters every 9 innings? No. Well then I think we can comfortably say that Ohtani is doing something incredibly unique, historic and elite statistically that you can appreciate. And simultaneously appreciate watching something that hasn't been done before either.

[Olerud363]

This is just purposely being obtuse to the point of meaninglessness. There's nothing of value in what you wrote there.

 

Statistically has any player had a 40 HR/20SB season while pitching 100+ innings with a sub 3 earned run average and striking out over 10 batters every 9 innings? No. Well then I think we can comfortably say that Ohtani is doing something incredibly unique, historic and elite statistically that you can appreciate. And simultaneously appreciate watching something that hasn't been done before either.

 

What you are saying is even more obtuse. What is your point? That when the story is unique enough we shouldn't use stats?

 

Where did I say Ohtani wasn't unique? What is up with this board.

 

Saying Ohtani's fWAR is currently 7 is not implying he is unique or not unique it is just stating a fact.

[Olerud363]

What you are saying is even more obtuse. What is your point? That when the story is unique enough we shouldn't use stats?

 

Where did I say Ohtani wasn't unique? What is up with this board.

 

Saying Ohtani's fWAR is currently 7 is not implying he is unique or not unique it is just stating a fact.

 

Ohtani finishes at 5.1/3 fWar for 8.1 total. Not a spectacular total for an MVP (Trout has had around 10 a few times and beat 8.1 7 times) but this year no other AL Position player gets more than 6.7. Ohtani should win MVP, a unique season, but not a historic WAR lead by any means.

 

Vladdy finished at 6.7. Maybe there is another computer update of defense stats pending or something, but if it holds he leads AL position players.

 

Leads league in HR (tied with Perez, but at least catcher who walks half as much as he homers didn't beat Vlad), on base, slugging, runs, total bases, times on base.

 

Probably only 4th best offensive season in Jays history (Delgado 2000, Olerud 1993, Bautista 2011).

 

Can he do it again? Does he have to? Can he come close? Does he have another gear? Can he pull off a 10 year run of these like Pujols and Cabrera did?

 

Maybe the near miss in playoffs, 50 hr, triple crown, and (probably) MVP will keep him motivated and he will return as a 160 game lightning cat.

 

Since he has no need to pull the ball for power (practically hit the second deck down the right field line yesterday), and since he can win a home run crown with 100 ks (as opposed to Judge or Stanton who k around 180 over 162) seems like there could be another gear in terms of batting average.

 

Hit's ball hard as Stanton and Judge, but 80-100 more balls in play over 162.

[bluejaysinternNo5]

118 wRC+ and 0.4 WAR 71 games into the season. On pace for 20 home runs. How the mighty have fallen.

[BTS]

118 wRC+ and 0.4 WAR 71 games into the season. On pace for 20 home runs. How the mighty have fallen.

 

Just realized he's slugging 0.428. That doesn't even seem possible for him 300+ PA into the season.

[bluejaysinternNo5]

 

Is this still the biggest home run of his career? Look at how cool and svelte he used to be. He could have stayed a lean mean baseball killing machine but alas it appears it was not to be.

[Olerud363]

Just realized he's slugging 0.428. That doesn't even seem possible for him 300+ PA into the season.

 

I've been refreshing fangraphs all morning to see the new fWars after last night. For a while I was really watching closely the Vlad vs Ryan Noda race, but Noda has pulled out in front by 1.4 WAR, so I think we can call it for Noda.

 

What is getting interesting now is Vlad vs Triston Casas. Casas is now in Positive WAR territory and has pulled within 0.3 WAR of Vlad,

 

Questions:

 

1. Will Casas pull ahead?

2. Will Vlad's WAR go negative? He is probably a few 110 mph double play grounders, a bad baserunning mistake, some whale dives where he misses balls other 1b get to, and maybe fails to pick a couple of throws from going negative WAR.

[L54]

 

Is this still the biggest home run of his career? Look at how cool and svelte he used to be. He could have stayed a lean mean baseball killing machine but alas it appears it was not to be.

 

Skinny Vlad and John Gibbons would have this team in first place

[Olerud363]

1 Freddie Freeman LAD 72 332 13 59 46 9 10.5% 16.6% .230 .359 .324 .404 .554 .404 .421 157 1.9 25.3 -5.4 3.1

2 Paul Goldschmidt STL 71 320 13 46 37 7 12.5% 21.9% .213 .344 .289 .381 .502 .380 .394 143 0.5 17.6 -3.4 2.5

3 Yandy Diaz TBR 61 269 12 45 36 0 11.9% 16.0% .220 .326 .302 .394 .522 .396 .393 161 -3.0 16.4 -4.7 2.1

4 Luke Raley TBR 55 185 12 35 27 8 6.5% 30.8% .317 .333 .268 .346 .585 .393 .393 159 1.2 14.1 0.3 2.1

5 Christian Walker ARI 69 293 15 41 49 1 8.5% 17.4% .249 .281 .272 .336 .521 .361 .347 125 0.4 9.5 1.0 2.0

6 LaMonte Wade Jr. SFG 68 272 9 38 27 2 17.3% 18.0% .183 .323 .280 .415 .463 .388 .386 147 -0.7 14.9 -5.5 1.9

7 Ryan Noda OAK 69 257 7 34 26 2 18.7% 33.1% .176 .381 .245 .397 .422 .365 .355 140 1.2 13.3 -4.0 1.8

8 Nathaniel Lowe TEX 71 323 8 48 40 0 11.8% 21.7% .156 .335 .273 .359 .429 .345 .346 121 -1.0 6.9 -0.8 1.7

9 Pete Alonso NYM 64 270 22 42 49 2 10.4% 20.4% .308 .200 .228 .322 .536 .365 .398 136 -1.0 10.8 -3.1 1.7

10 Brandon Drury LAA 66 268 12 31 37 0 4.9% 27.2% .231 .327 .267 .313 .498 .345 .319 119 -2.0 4.0 1.7 1.5

11 Matt Olson ATL 72 325 20 51 51 1 14.5% 29.2% .269 .273 .233 .348 .502 .363 .371 126 -0.2 10.3 -7.6 1.4

12 Ty France SEA 69 300 6 42 32 1 6.0% 16.3% .144 .319 .278 .347 .422 .338 .337 121 -3.5 4.0 -3.3 1.1

13 Anthony Rizzo NYY 66 283 11 34 36 0 7.4% 22.6% .167 .309 .262 .339 .429 .337 .330 116 -2.9 2.5 -1.8 1.0

14 Justin Turner BOS 69 298 10 41 37 3 9.4% 15.1% .170 .299 .277 .352 .447 .349 .356 118 -1.1 5.2 -5.3 1.0

15 Connor Joe PIT 63 228 6 29 21 3 10.1% 28.5% .199 .323 .239 .329 .438 .334 .319 109 -0.6 1.9 0.0 1.0

16 Spencer Steer CIN 70 298 10 39 39 7 10.4% 17.8% .197 .312 .278 .362 .475 .363 .335 121 0.5 8.2 -9.0 0.9

17 Josh Naylor CLE 63 251 8 25 53 5 6.4% 15.5% .162 .310 .288 .331 .450 .330 .363 110 -2.0 0.9 -1.9 0.8

18 Donovan Solano MIN 62 200 2 17 17 0 10.5% 22.0% .109 .367 .282 .375 .391 .342 .368 120 0.0 4.7 -4.5 0.7

19 Brandon Belt TOR 48 180 4 18 16 0 15.0% 37.2% .171 .444 .263 .378 .434 .357 .314 130 -2.0 4.4 -3.7 0.7

20 Joey Gallo MIN 52 185 11 21 24 0 14.6% 36.8% .269 .247 .192 .319 .462 .337 .334 116 -0.1 3.5 -4.1 0.6

21 Nick Pratto KCR 47 188 4 22 19 1 10.6% 33.5% .142 .433 .284 .372 .426 .352 .340 123 -0.9 4.1 -5.7 0.5

22 Gio Urshela LAA 62 228 2 22 24 3 4.4% 15.8% .075 .346 .299 .329 .374 .308 .288 94 -1.7 -3.4 -0.2 0.4

23 Wilmer Flores SFG 53 173 7 20 23 0 9.2% 16.8% .194 .273 .258 .324 .452 .334 .304 111 -1.0 1.3 -3.5 0.4

24 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR 71 311 9 31 42 3 8.7% 15.8% .149 .308 .279 .350 .428 .340 .391 118 -1.6 5.0 -11.9 0.4

25 Carlos Santana PIT 64 268 6 28 34 5 11.6% 17.5% .145 .261 .231 .317 .376 .307 .300 90 1.3 -1.9 -3.6 0.3

26 Yuli Gurriel MIA 46 186 3 18 14 4 7.5% 11.8% .130 .288 .266 .323 .396 .310 .280 95 0.9 -0.2 -3.2 0.3

27 Andrew Vaughn CHW 72 302 10 33 42 0 8.3% 18.5% .191 .266 .240 .321 .431 .328 .338 108 -4.4 -1.4 -6.6 0.2

28 Vinnie Pasquantino KCR 61 260 9 24 26 0 9.6% 11.9% .190 .250 .247 .324 .437 .329 .350 106 -2.0 -0.1 -6.8 0.2

29 Jake Cronenworth SDP 71 298 7 30 24 3 11.4% 21.5% .153 .253 .212 .314 .365 .301 .312 91 0.7 -2.6 -6.2 0.1

30 Triston Casas BOS 64 239 8 28 24 0 15.5% 25.9% .180 .265 .215 .335 .395 .324 .351 100 -0.9 -0.9 -6.6 0.1

[Laika]

I can't even watch these games anymore and Vlad is most of why. Just so f***ing disappointing, all the time.

 

He's also at the point in arbitration where he is arguably overpaid. They would never non-tender him but they might end up paying 26 year old Vlad $20M for f***ing nothing.

[bluejaysinternNo5]

We traded away Lourdes and Teoscar but imagine if we sold high on the mayor of the barrio himself. Would the Dbacks have parted with Carrol for Guerrero? Probably not but just imagine him leading off for this team while Vlad sweats off the weight in Arizona and has a respectable repeat of his 2022 season.

[Captain_Obvious]

Don't worry. Atkins will trade our other Noda (Horwitz) for a relief pitcher. Meanwhile, MA HOASE Vladdy and his soon to be negative WAR will continue to kill us.

[Olerud363]

We traded away Lourdes and Teoscar but imagine if we sold high on the mayor of the barrio himself. Would the Dbacks have parted with Carrol for Guerrero? Probably not but just imagine him leading off for this team while Vlad sweats off the weight in Arizona and has a respectable repeat of his 2022 season.

 

Are you saying he is repeating his 2022 season? He is like at 1/3 2022 value per 162

 

162/74*0.4= 0.8756756756756756

 

He is going to set the world record for worst defensive player ever... well maybe not quite but he has no power and is on pace for like -23 fangraphs defense. What is up with that? Will he set the world record for worst f-defense to ever win a gold glove?

[bluejaysinternNo5]

Are you saying he is repeating his 2022 season? He is like at 1/3 2022 value per 162

 

162/74*0.4= 0.8756756756756756

 

He is going to set the world record for worst defensive player ever... well maybe not quite but he has no power and is on pace for like -23 fangraphs defense. What is up with that? Will he set the world record for worst f-defense to ever win a gold glove?

 

No I’m just theorizing that the hot desert air would help vladdy slim down and perform like last year in an alternate universe where he gets traded to Arizona

[Olerud363]

Are you saying he is repeating his 2022 season? He is like at 1/3 2022 value per 162

 

162/74*0.4= 0.8756756756756756

 

He is going to set the world record for worst defensive player ever... well maybe not quite but he has no power and is on pace for like -23 fangraphs defense. What is up with that? Will he set the world record for worst f-defense to ever win a gold glove?

 

Correction on pace for -26 fWAR defense. If we project using his decay rate since 2022 I think he could hit -1 or -2 WAR by next year. Challenge Joe Carter 1997. Maybe even this year.

 

Imagine he hits .250 with 14 homers, and -30 fDefense... like it's worse than Bellinger when taking the whole picture.

[Olerud363]

Correction on pace for -26 fWAR defense. If we project using his decay rate since 2022 I think he could hit -1 or -2 WAR by next year. Challenge Joe Carter 1997. Maybe even this year.

 

Imagine he hits .250 with 14 homers, and -30 fDefense... like it's worse than Bellinger when taking the whole picture.

 

That's not a joke. Vlad won't hit .165, or probably even .210, but if you look at his fWAR trends, by the end of next year he could be about where Bellinger was when they released him. Similar pattern, except Bellinger was 1 or 2 more WAR every year.

[Captain_Obvious]

No I’m just theorizing that the hot desert air would help vladdy slim down and perform like last year in an alternate universe where he gets traded to Arizona

 

In another alternate universe, the Blue Jays draft Carroll instead of Manoah. if I remember correctly, they were actually strongly considering him for their pick.

[connorp]

I've been refreshing fangraphs all morning to see the new fWars after last night. For a while I was really watching closely the Vlad vs Ryan Noda race, but Noda has pulled out in front by 1.4 WAR, so I think we can call it for Noda.

 

What is getting interesting now is Vlad vs Triston Casas. Casas is now in Positive WAR territory and has pulled within 0.3 WAR of Vlad,

 

Questions:

 

1. Will Casas pull ahead?

2. Will Vlad's WAR go negative? He is probably a few 110 mph double play grounders, a bad baserunning mistake, some whale dives where he misses balls other 1b get to, and maybe fails to pick a couple of throws from going negative WAR.

 

All eye reports are saying Casas is atrocious at 1b, so sounds like a WAR problem subtracting more from Vlad than Casas

[Olerud363]

All eye reports are saying Casas is atrocious at 1b, so sounds like a WAR problem subtracting more from Vlad than Casas

 

He isn't making many errors and has more assists and double plays than Vlad, and I think more putouts too. Though all of this for a first basemen is dependent on luck, pitching staff characteristics, and how good the other guys in the infield are.

 

There is nothing in Casas' record to indicated he's making a bunch of mistakes or not making plays, making more per game than Vlad.

 

Why do you think Vlad is treated unfairly by the system? Vlad does do the splits and makes some whale dives, maybe Casas makes those plays in a clunky blue collar fashion.

[The Iceman]

Get rid of this good for nothing hitting coach, and bring in Victor Martinez full time.

The positive is maybe Jays can sign Vladdy for a bit of a discount multi year contract.

 

You don't forget how to be a great ballplayer @ 24 years old.

[Jonn]

Get rid of this good for nothing hitting coach, and bring in Victor Martinez full time.

The positive is maybe Jays can sign Vladdy for a bit of a discount multi year contract.

 

You don't forget how to be a great ballplayer @ 24 years old.

 

Interesting how they let Danny Jansen be dead pull hitter but nobody else. Varsho and Chapman probably both see immediate power gains doing this.

[max silver]

Interesting how they let Danny Jansen be dead pull hitter but nobody else. Varsho and Chapman probably both see immediate power gains doing this.

 

Varsho already is a pull hitter with a 50.9% pull rate. Jansen is only a few ticks higher at 52.6%.

[Jonn]

Varsho already is a pull hitter with a 50.9% pull rate. Jansen is only a few ticks higher at 52.6%.

 

His stats are starting to normalize. He spent pretty much all of April trying to hit the ball the other way and it would hit nothing but pop ups and weak ground balls.

[max silver]

His stats are starting to normalize. He spent pretty much all of April trying to hit the ball the other way and it would hit nothing but pop ups and weak ground balls.

 

You should look this up instead of assuming. Varho's pull rate was a bit lower for the start of the season but not by a great degree.

 

Varsho pull rate by month:

 

Mar/Apr 46.5%

May 53.3%

June 52.8%

[Jonn]

You should look this up instead of assuming. Varho's pull rate was a bit lower for the start of the season but not by a great degree.

 

Varsho pull rate by month:

 

Mar/Apr 46.5%

May 53.3%

June 52.8%

 

Oh I do it’s clear what he was trying to do in April. It was extremely unsuccessful. The adjustments he made was realizing he had no shot at hitting the ball unless he’s trying to pull the ball. I watched him all last year I own 6 Arizona Diamonds in Fantasty.

[bones10]

I cannot believe how bad vlad has been this year, complete regression even from a mediocre 2022

[BlueBaller]

Just watching his load at the plate is embarrassing. He's lost and just flailing most of the time.

 

Get him outta here!

[hanton]

I cannot believe how bad vlad has been this year, complete regression even from a mediocre 2022

 

He's on the wrong team, just look at how many bats this team has developed in almost 8 season under this FO. An argument can be made Vlady doesn't need development - but maybe the messaging has messed him up.