Vlad Jr. to Indy Ball

[keggy]

That's a bit unfair. Vlad Guerrero has sucked for August, no question about that. Posters aren't allowed to vent on that? Because the narrative is that it is 100% certain that Vlad won't go down the same road as Cody Bellinger?

 

Bellinger's swing is so insanely complicated I'm honestly not surprised he goes through such extended slumps. Vlad's floor is a fat decent hitter with no defensive or baserunning value. Bellinger's floor is zombie Chris Davis with more defensive value.

 

Based on swing mechanics, the player actually more likely to implode completely is Bichette. However, he's passed every test at the plate thus far in his career so I might be worrying for nothing.

[keggy]

Also. Will he finish the year as the best hitter in baseball? Juan Soto may have already passed him. I am guessing Ohtani and Matt Olson will pass him.

 

Potentially he finishes the year behind Olson, if Olson finishes well and Vlad continues to slump. May not even win the silver slugger at first, pretty disappointing after the start.

 

Accounting for age, track record, and tools, it's something like Soto, Guerrero, Ohtani, and Olson. Soto was destroying MLB pitching when Guerrero was destroying AA or struggling in the big leagues. And Trout stands above them all when healthy.

 

Guerrero still has the most raw hitting talent of all those players, including Trout. His absolute ceiling is basically Stanton + Cabrera on steroids.

[Stangstag]

Does Vladdy make it to 40 homeruns this year?

 

At the allstar break, it seemed an absolute certainty. However, he's hit only 8 homers since the break and only 3 in August.

 

Actually, a decent bet would be to guess who ends the season with more homers. Semien or Vlad

[wilko]

Does Vladdy make it to 40 homeruns this year?

 

At the allstar break, it seemed an absolute certainty. However, he's hit only 8 homers since the break and only 3 in August.

 

Yes.

[Spanky99]

Does Vladdy make it to 40 homeruns this year?

 

At the allstar break, it seemed an absolute certainty. However, he's hit only 8 homers since the break and only 3 in August.

 

Actually, a decent bet would be to guess who ends the season with more homers. Semien or Vlad

 

I'll go with Vlad!

[Stangstag]

Yes.

 

Gave him the good juju

[Olerud363]

Accounting for age, track record, and tools, it's something like Soto, Guerrero, Ohtani, and Olson. Soto was destroying MLB pitching when Guerrero was destroying AA or struggling in the big leagues. And Trout stands above them all when healthy.

 

Guerrero still has the most raw hitting talent of all those players, including Trout. His absolute ceiling is basically Stanton + Cabrera on steroids.

 

I agree Guerrero, Soto, and Trout have a ceiling way higher than Olson and Ohtani, but I think differentiating between the three is like calling strikes... human can't do it.

 

Look at Soto's performance in the homerun derby in the round against Ohtani, look at the run he went on just after the all star break, or in 2020. He's got serious raw power and could easily hit 50 homeruns if he can get the ground ball rate down.

 

Soto has similar career ground ball rate to Guerrero actually, and if either had a full season without major slump, hitting the ball hard with the ground ball rate down they'd reach Cabrerra + Stanton level (which I assume is .350 with 50+ homeruns).

[Olerud363]

I agree Guerrero, Soto, and Trout have a ceiling way higher than Olson and Ohtani, but I think differentiating between the three is like calling strikes... human can't do it.

 

Look at Soto's performance in the homerun derby in the round against Ohtani, look at the run he went on just after the all star break, or in 2020. He's got serious raw power and could easily hit 50 homeruns if he can get the ground ball rate down.

 

Soto has similar career ground ball rate to Guerrero actually, and if either had a full season without major slump, hitting the ball hard with the ground ball rate down they'd reach Cabrerra + Stanton level (which I assume is .350 with 50+ homeruns).

 

Note I'm not saying that either Guerrero or Soto is going to hit .350 with 50 homeruns... no idea if either can improve the ground ball rate as they get older or improve that without screwing up something else like becoming a pop-up machine... just that both hit ball mega-hard, have good eyes (Soto better) and have the same super potential if things went right.

[Olerud363]

Does Vladdy make it to 40 homeruns this year?

 

At the allstar break, it seemed an absolute certainty. However, he's hit only 8 homers since the break and only 3 in August.

 

Actually, a decent bet would be to guess who ends the season with more homers. Semien or Vlad

 

Yes. Vladdy makes it to 40 homeruns. Semien still in range of Vladdy in HR just because Semien is crazy hot right now.

 

Vladdy seems to be going opp-field a lot the last week. Maybe a slight adjustment to go with outside pitches (which he is good at), instead of pulling them into the ground.

[Spanky99]

Yes. Vladdy makes it to 40 homeruns. Semien still in range of Vladdy in HR just because Semien is crazy hot right now.

 

Vladdy seems to be going opp-field a lot the last week. Maybe a slight adjustment to go with outside pitches (which he is good at), instead of pulling them into the ground.

 

Uhmm... it's the other way around, Olerud? Since the Detroit series 8/27... Semien with a wRC+ 110. Vlad 200.

[Dick_Pole]

I'm still hoping for 60 LMAO. I guess I jinxed him as soon as I made that call.

[Olerud363]

Uhmm... it's the other way around, Olerud? Since the Detroit series 8/27... Semien with a wRC+ 110. Vlad 200.

 

Just meant in the HR race. Semien has out-homered Vlad 5-4 I believe since Detroit Series, making up ground on him even though Vlad hit his 40th.

 

It will be interesting to see who gets more MVP votes. They will be close in WAR. I will have to check tomorrow but fWAR is 5.8 to 5.6 for Vlad, but bWar is Semien.

 

Say the WAR is tied. Argument for Semien is "leadership" (not saying I buy that but voters might).

 

Argument for Vlad might be that the system's aren't registering his 1b defense. Maybe others more knowledge-able about D metrics will chime in. Vlad is still around -10 on fangraphs. Really good first basemen usually manage a slightly positive fangraphs defense rating.

[Spanky99]

Just meant in the HR race. Semien has out-homered Vlad 5-4 I believe since Detroit Series, making up ground on him even though Vlad hit his 40th.

 

It will be interesting to see who gets more MVP votes. They will be close in WAR. I will have to check tomorrow but fWAR is 5.8 to 5.6 for Vlad, but bWar is Semien.

 

Say the WAR is tied. Argument for Semien is "leadership" (not saying I buy that but voters might).

 

Argument for Vlad might be that the system's aren't registering his 1b defense. Maybe others more knowledge-able about D metrics will chime in. Vlad is still around -10 on fangraphs. Really good first basemen usually manage a slightly positive fangraphs defense rating.

 

I see, still think Vlad takes it. Fangraphs and OAA did not like Vladito's defense in August.

[Jimcanuck]

Vlad ahead in batting average, hits, rbi, home runs.... that's a big deal to the voters.

[connorp]

Vlad ahead in batting average, hits, rbi, home runs.... that's a big deal to the voters.

 

HR matter but so does batting average.. if Ohtani finishes at .247, some traditionalists are going to have an issue with that. If Vlad can close strong and Ohtani meh… think Vlad has a good shot at whole pie

[Stangstag]

HR matter but so does batting average.. if Ohtani finishes at .247, some traditionalists are going to have an issue with that. If Vlad can close strong and Ohtani meh… think Vlad has a good shot at whole pie

 

Vlad has zero shot unless he ends the season with 60 homers and a .350 average.

 

You have to be an extreme homer to not understand what Ohtani has accomplished this season ON BOTH SIDES of the ball

[connorp]

Vlad has zero shot unless he ends the season with 60 homers and a .350 average.

 

You have to be an extreme homer to not understand what Ohtani has accomplished this season ON BOTH SIDES of the ball

 

If Vlad goes off and somehow gets the Jays in playoffs, goes to Vlad. Though I’m not holding my breath on any of it

[Ray]

If Vlad goes off and somehow gets the Jays in playoffs, goes to Vlad. Though I’m not holding my breath on any of it

 

Lmao Ohtani is basically a lock for MVP. Dude is literally a -6000 favourite right now in Vegas. He’s gonna be close to, if not, unanimous too. There’s very little Vlad or the Jays can do to help him at this point.

 

Playoffs don’t matter when something as historical as this is materializing. He’s putting together one of the most memorable and great seasons in baseball history.

[Spanky99]

Plakata!!! 40!!!

 

[connorp]

Lmao Ohtani is basically a lock for MVP. Dude is literally a -6000 favourite right now in Vegas. He’s gonna be close to, if not, unanimous too. There’s very little Vlad or the Jays can do to help him at this point.

 

Playoffs don’t matter when something as historical as this is materializing. He’s putting together one of the most memorable and great seasons in baseball history.

 

So you’re saying there’s a chance? < movie quote

[connorp]

Lmao Ohtani is basically a lock for MVP. Dude is literally a -6000 favourite right now in Vegas. He’s gonna be close to, if not, unanimous too. There’s very little Vlad or the Jays can do to help him at this point.

 

Playoffs don’t matter when something as historical as this is materializing. He’s putting together one of the most memorable and great seasons in baseball history.

 

-5000 for Ohtani I see at first glance. If Vlad was near that in reverse I was going to consider putting $100 on it. Though I’m not supposed to gamble, it’d be more like fun/rooting for the team. But you only get +1200. If Jays make some noise, I may hop in. Depends what it gets to

[Olerud363]

Lmao Ohtani is basically a lock for MVP. Dude is literally a -6000 favourite right now in Vegas. He’s gonna be close to, if not, unanimous too. There’s very little Vlad or the Jays can do to help him at this point.

 

Playoffs don’t matter when something as historical as this is materializing. He’s putting together one of the most memorable and great seasons in baseball history.

 

Trout, A-Rod and Bonds alone will have like 20 seasons of equivalent fWAR and a few that are better.

 

Weird. Ohtani looks like he is headed for 5 or so position player WAR and 3 pitching WAR. Every year someone has 9 or 10 WAR.

 

The Vlad vs. Ohtani race will probably be closer in WAR then the 2012/13 Cabrera vs. Trout races.

 

The story is great but the value isn't historical.

[Jimcanuck]

Vlad ahead in batting average, hits, rbi, home runs.... that's a big deal to the voters.

 

To be clear the above post relates to the discussion on whether Semien would finish ahead of Vlad in MVP voting.

 

Now that it has segued into an Ohtani vs. Vlad, to be clear, right now IMO:

 

Ohtani

Vlad

Cole?

Semien?

Correa?

 

There really shouldn't be a debate on the top 2 being Ohtani and Vlad, unless the Jays fall out of the race and the voters give Cole additional credit for being on a playoff team.

[Brownie19]

Trout, A-Rod and Bonds alone will have like 20 seasons of equivalent fWAR and a few that are better.

 

Weird. Ohtani looks like he is headed for 5 or so position player WAR and 3 pitching WAR. Every year someone has 9 or 10 WAR.

 

The Vlad vs. Ohtani race will probably be closer in WAR then the 2012/13 Cabrera vs. Trout races.

 

The story is great but the value isn't historical.

 

I love stats...but even I can step back and just enjoy one of the most historical seasons in ML history. Ohtani is doing something we've never seen before FFS.

[Buster]

Trout, A-Rod and Bonds alone will have like 20 seasons of equivalent fWAR and a few that are better.

 

Weird. Ohtani looks like he is headed for 5 or so position player WAR and 3 pitching WAR. Every year someone has 9 or 10 WAR.

 

The Vlad vs. Ohtani race will probably be closer in WAR then the 2012/13 Cabrera vs. Trout races.

 

The story is great but the value isn't historical.

 

thats a failure of the stat.

 

Ohtani doesn't play defense.

[Olerud363]

Trout, A-Rod and Bonds alone will have like 20 seasons of equivalent fWAR and a few that are better.

 

Weird. Ohtani looks like he is headed for 5 or so position player WAR and 3 pitching WAR. Every year someone has 9 or 10 WAR.

 

The Vlad vs. Ohtani race will probably be closer in WAR then the 2012/13 Cabrera vs. Trout races.

 

The story is great but the value isn't historical.

 

I double checked this after reading a 538 article that had Ohtani rated higher, had him headed for 9 and the next best guy headed for 7 and claimed the 2 WAR difference was historical. However that is more that no one else having a 9 WAR season this year, and many years there is.

 

A fair number of hitters and pitchers have put up 10 WAR seasons in the last 30 years. Pedro Martinez, Clemens, Johnson, A-Rod, Bonds, Trout, Ripken, Henderson, Mookie Betts

 

Truly historic value would be more like 11, 12 WAR. Which Ohtani could do if he pitched more innings and improved his on base percentage.

[Laika]

thats a failure of the stat.

 

Ohtani doesn't play defense.

 

Think about what you just said.

[connorp]

thats a failure of the stat.

 

Ohtani doesn't play defense.

 

And Vlad doesn’t pitch lol.

[Olerud363]

thats a failure of the stat.

 

Ohtani doesn't play defense.

 

If he played good defense he could pick up another couple of WAR. If he played mediocre defense it wouldn't make a difference.

 

Not a failure of the stat. It just measures what happened. Not what would of happened if the world was different.

[Olerud363]

I love stats...but even I can step back and just enjoy one of the most historical seasons in ML history. Ohtani is doing something we've never seen before FFS.

 

You can have both. You can enjoy the player and pay attention to the stats. Same could be said about anyone (not that everyone is having a historical season, I just mean if you forgot about the stats you can enjoy all your favourite players more).

 

Fernando Tatis - dynamic hitter, baserunner and can play short stop... just enjoy the season and forget that he wasn't playing short stop well and is now in left field (injury related but still)

 

Javier Baez - No one is as exciting as him. Just forget about the sub .300 on base percentage and enjoy the season.

 

Joe Panik - A veteran guy, sweet left handed swing, doesn't try to kill the ball, hustles... don't look at the stats just enjoy the veteran presence.