Vlad Jr. to Indy Ball

[Brownie19]

Has anyone ever heard someone report that Vlady is in early, or staying late to put in extra time to improve at first base or as a hitter?

[KevinGregg]

Has anyone ever heard someone report that Vlady is in early, or staying late to put in extra time to improve at first base or as a hitter?

 

I've heard reports that everyone is only allowed at the park for 5 hours outside of the actual game, so no one is actually allowed to put in extra time right now and in fact everyone is significantly limited from the normal amount of time they would have had before.

[Olerud363]

I am sure we could reconstruct it if we had to. Going into the game his OPS was .628 and he then went 0/3. Shaw and Tellez both homered before Vlad did, so presumably he would of been behind them at that point.

 

Projected to 150 games he'd still hit 40 doubles and 20 homers. I wonder if anybody has every done this with a 60% ground ball rate.

 

Anyway this is not a hate thread. It is a love thread. We all love Vlad. We cannot teach Brandon Drury to consistently hit the ball at 115 MPH... but Vladdy, someday we think his ground ball rate could be below 40% and then the numbers would be mind blowing. His defense is only projected at -10 or so (small sample size).... Maybe if he learns to catch the throws and pop-ups he could put up like only -5 defense (-5 instead of -20 would be a big difference).

 

If Brandon Drury loses 35 pounds the dude would be too scrawny, if Vlad did his defense might go neutral and WAR to 8.

 

It's a love thread and a problem solving thread not a hate thread.

[Olerud363]

Quick addendum ... I haven't checked Drury's exit velos... if I was under-estimating him and he also hits at 115 mph then I apologize for overlooking his potential. In that case give Drury love too and direct your problem solving skills to help him reach his potential.

[FrozenRopes]

Vlad appears to be a plus hitter but also a plus eater and a plus hitter of ground balls.

 

Still young. Would be wise to pay for a fitness and diet coach for him.

[John_Havok]

Vlad appears to be a plus hitter but also a plus eater and a plus hitter of ground balls.

 

Still young. Would be wise to pay for a fitness and diet coach for him.

 

You can lead a fatty To a treadmill, but you can’t make him run. Take it from a fellow fatty

[The Cats Ass]

You can lead a fatty To a treadmill, but you can’t make him run. Take it from a fellow fatty

 

Can't they just "accidentally" lock him in the clubhouse for a week or two while they're on a road trip.

 

Just make sure he has water.

[Jonn]

Can't they just "accidentally" lock him in the clubhouse for a week or two while they're on a road trip.

 

Just make sure he has water.

 

The first thing he would do when he got out is eat everything he can get his hands on and gain it all back and then some.

[Olerud363]

The first thing he would do when he got out is eat everything he can get his hands on and gain it all back and then some.

 

Part of the problem is jealousy. The other young players are all instant Mantle.

 

Juan Soto for example was missing in action because of Coronavirus last I checked, just re-checked to see if he is back and turns out he slammed 5 homeruns in the week since I checked to see if he was back (I swear he wasn't back last week).

 

Bo is doing a good job of battling Fernando Tatis JR.

 

In support of Vlad, Rowdy Tellez has to fight Juan Soto. It is complete mismatch but Rowdy has to dig deep and start hitting .290 .400 .600. Then we can say "Vlad is still grounding at 60% but look at Rowdy... who saw that coming."

[Olerud363]

Since everyone else is complaining, even Buck, I should have my chance.

 

Even though he had a homerun today Vlad still had a 66% ground ball rate and is still above 60% on the year.

 

Even though he is hitting a .900+ OPS in August who cares. Great hitters put up 1500 OPSs in their 15 game hot streaks.

 

On Juan Soto's current hot streak he is hitting .400 .500 .900 or so. Juan Soto is a great hitter. Great hitters don't have 66% ground ball rates.

 

I still believe in Vlad, I think, but needs to get the ground ball rate down 15 points. That is all. Carry on with your other complaints.

 

Oh one more thing... I don't get it. Everyone thinks Charlie Montoya is a f***ing idiot... if he is so handicapped that he can't make the right in game strategy decisions, why do you think he is smart enough to help (or hire the right hitting coach to help) the guys with subtle swing mechanics and pitch sequencing plans? If Charlie is an idiot it will show up in both game strategy and hitting development (via bad advice and/or wrong choice of hitting coach)

[Olerud363]

Fernando Tatis hit two bombs and continues to produce mind blowing, franchise changing, legend making, community building, historic numbers.

 

Vlad hit two ground balls. Amazing how day after day, it's 2 ground balls out of 3 in play.

[5minutesforframing]

If Vlad hits this way for the rest of the season, and comes to next year's camp (whenever that may be) having not lost any less than 30 pounds, will he have reached bust status?

[Orgfiller]

If Vlad hits this way for the rest of the season, and comes to next year's camp (whenever that may be) having not lost any less than 30 pounds, will he have reached bust status?

 

lol

 

A 22 year old with just over a season's worth of games is not a bust by any stretch of the imagination. Fat Vlad or not

[Olerud363]

lol

 

A 22 year old with just over a season's worth of games is not a bust by any stretch of the imagination. Fat Vlad or not

 

At that point he'd be a bad month or an injury away from busting sadly.

 

Both Travis Snider and Jesus Montero busted beyond repair at age 23... up to their age 23 season they had similar numbers to Vlad, then a bad month busted them.

 

Guerrero is a year behind Montero and Snider... a bad month in 2021 likely just gets him sent down to condition and rebuild his swing with another shot in 2022.

 

Hopefully he won't need a demotion, but if it happens we won't be able to officially call him a bust until we see how he reacts to the demotion. Does he give up or come back stronger??

[Olerud363]

At that point he'd be a bad month or an injury away from busting sadly.

 

Both Travis Snider and Jesus Montero busted beyond repair at age 23... up to their age 23 season they had similar numbers to Vlad, then a bad month busted them.

 

Guerrero is a year behind Montero and Snider... a bad month in 2021 likely just gets him sent down to condition and rebuild his swing with another shot in 2022.

 

Hopefully he won't need a demotion, but if it happens we won't be able to officially call him a bust until we see how he reacts to the demotion. Does he give up or come back stronger??

 

I'm being over dramatic to some extent... last year this kind of thread was ridiculous.

 

However this year the Vladimir bust theme has more to to it. It's discouraging to see that the two problems (conditioning and ground ball rate) are worse this year... no matter what problem domain it is a bad sign when identifiable problems become worse instead of better.

 

You work at Subway and need to be there at 8:30, first month on the job you show up at 8:45... manager identifies a problem, speaks to you, then next month your showing up at 9:00... you get fired. That's it. A major league baseball super prospect will have more rope, but annoying that the easily identified problems are getting worse.

[wilko]

At that point he'd be a bad month or an injury away from busting sadly.

 

Both Travis Snider and Jesus Montero busted beyond repair at age 23... up to their age 23 season they had similar numbers to Vlad, then a bad month busted them.

 

Guerrero is a year behind Montero and Snider... a bad month in 2021 likely just gets him sent down to condition and rebuild his swing with another shot in 2022.

 

Hopefully he won't need a demotion, but if it happens we won't be able to officially call him a bust until we see how he reacts to the demotion. Does he give up or come back fatter??

 

Fixed.

[Orgfiller]

At that point he'd be a bad month or an injury away from busting sadly.

 

Both Travis Snider and Jesus Montero busted beyond repair at age 23... up to their age 23 season they had similar numbers to Vlad, then a bad month busted them.

 

Guerrero is a year behind Montero and Snider... a bad month in 2021 likely just gets him sent down to condition and rebuild his swing with another shot in 2022.

 

Hopefully he won't need a demotion, but if it happens we won't be able to officially call him a bust until we see how he reacts to the demotion. Does he give up or come back stronger??

 

Neither Montero or Snider were nearly as dominant as Vlad was in the minors past A+. Look at the ISO, K and BB rates, not to mention that Vlad was younger - he probably should have debuted at 19 if it wasn't for service time manipulation and had a full season at 20, Snider got his cup of coffee at the end of his age 20 season, and Montero got his at 21.

 

Guerrero is literally not a year behind anyone, Montero hadn't yet debuted by the same age that Vlad is right now.

[BTS]

If Vlad hits this way for the rest of the season, and comes to next year's camp (whenever that may be) having not lost any less than 30 pounds, will he have reached bust status?

 

We're all frustrated with Vlad, but I think people sometimes forget how special a talent he is. He's 21 and has 600 PA of league average production in the majors. He has a career 9% walk rate, and 17% K rate, and he hits the s*** out of the ball.

 

This skill set could remain static for the next 3 years, and I'd still be expecting 25-year old Vlad to make the right adjustments and turn into an absolute monster offensively.

 

He has demonstrated very rare and very valuable skills at the highest level at the age of 21. He's going to become an offensive force.

[BlueRocky]

Since everyone else is complaining, even Buck, I should have my chance.

 

Even though he had a homerun today Vlad still had a 66% ground ball rate and is still above 60% on the year.

 

Even though he is hitting a .900+ OPS in August who cares. Great hitters put up 1500 OPSs in their 15 game hot streaks.

 

On Juan Soto's current hot streak he is hitting .400 .500 .900 or so. Juan Soto is a great hitter. Great hitters don't have 66% ground ball rates.

 

I still believe in Vlad, I think, but needs to get the ground ball rate down 15 points. That is all. Carry on with your other complaints.

 

Oh one more thing... I don't get it. Everyone thinks Charlie Montoya is a f***ing idiot... if he is so handicapped that he can't make the right in game strategy decisions, why do you think he is smart enough to help (or hire the right hitting coach to help) the guys with subtle swing mechanics and pitch sequencing plans? If Charlie is an idiot it will show up in both game strategy and hitting development (via bad advice and/or wrong choice of hitting coach)

At that point he'd be a bad month or an injury away from busting sadly.

 

Both Travis Snider and Jesus Montero busted beyond repair at age 23... up to their age 23 season they had similar numbers to Vlad, then a bad month busted them.

 

Guerrero is a year behind Montero and Snider... a bad month in 2021 likely just gets him sent down to condition and rebuild his swing with another shot in 2022.

 

Hopefully he won't need a demotion, but if it happens we won't be able to officially call him a bust until we see how he reacts to the demotion. Does he give up or come back stronger??

 

I'm being over dramatic to some extent... last year this kind of thread was ridiculous.

 

However this year the Vladimir bust theme has more to to it. It's discouraging to see that the two problems (conditioning and ground ball rate) are worse this year... no matter what problem domain it is a bad sign when identifiable problems become worse instead of better.

 

You work at Subway and need to be there at 8:30, first month on the job you show up at 8:45... manager identifies a problem, speaks to you, then next month your showing up at 9:00... you get fired. That's it. A major league baseball super prospect will have more rope, but annoying that the easily identified problems are getting worse.

 

Let’s ignore the fact he has a 135 wRC+ in August. Go ahead and keep hating on Vlad and his conditioning. Just ignore that many sluggers have succeeded hitting baseballs with similar body types like David Ortiz and Miguel Cabrera. Nobody cares that you hate him, it’s just annoying at this point.

 

This isn’t even a hot streak for Vlad, it’s just regression to his average when his first two weeks were horrific.

 

You wanna see what a Vlad hot streak looks like?

 

First promotion to AA (April 4-June 6):

54 games - .410/.460/.668, OPS 1.128 OPS, .483 WOBA, 205 wRC+

8.5 BB%, 8.9 K%, .258 ISO

20 BB to 21 K in 236 PA

84 hits, 30 XBH, 11 HR, 55 RBI, 44 runs

 

First promotion to AAA:

30 games - .336/.414/.564, OPS .978, .428 WOBA, 175 wRC+

11.7 BB%, 7.8 K%, .227 ISO

15 BB to 10 K in 128 PA

37 hits, 13 XBH, 6 HR, 16 RBI, 15 runs

 

He was 19 years old and the youngest player at each level during AA and AAA.

He got on-base 2 or 3 times a game, drove in a couple runs, and even got intentionally walked 5 times during this stretch. He always had a line-drive & on-base approach, rarely really swung for the fences and still managed to tatoo the hotel in left field several times due to ridiculous exit velocities that frequently touched 110-121 MPH in AA/AAA.

 

Vlad has never struggled in the minors and only a handful of times he failed to get on-base more than two games in a row. Everyone voiced to call him up and now he’s hitting speed bumps the fan base has resorted to fat shame him on a daily basis. He’s 21 and we’re not winning this year. Just relax man.

[RustyTrombone]

Let’s ignore the fact he has a 135 wRC+ in August. Go ahead and keep hating on Vlad and his conditioning. Just ignore that many sluggers have succeeded hitting baseballs with similar body types like David Ortiz and Miguel Cabrera. Nobody cares that you hate him, it’s just annoying at this point.

 

This isn’t even a hot streak for Vlad, it’s just regression to his average when his first two weeks were horrific.

 

You wanna see what a Vlad hot streak looks like?

 

First promotion to AA (April 4-June 6):

54 games - .410/.460/.668, OPS 1.128 OPS, .483 WOBA, 205 wRC+

8.5 BB%, 8.9 K%, .258 ISO

20 BB to 21 K in 236 PA

84 hits, 30 XBH, 11 HR, 55 RBI, 44 runs

 

First promotion to AAA:

30 games - .336/.414/.564, OPS .978, .428 WOBA, 175 wRC+

11.7 BB%, 7.8 K%, .227 ISO

15 BB to 10 K in 128 PA

37 hits, 13 XBH, 6 HR, 16 RBI, 15 runs

 

He was 19 years old and the youngest player at each level during AA and AAA.

He got on-base 2 or 3 times a game, drove in a couple runs, and even got intentionally walked 5 times during this stretch. He always had a line-drive & on-base approach, rarely really swung for the fences and still managed to tatoo the hotel in left field several times due to ridiculous exit velocities that frequently touched 110-121 MPH in AA/AAA.

 

Vlad has never struggled in the minors and only a handful of times he failed to get on-base more than two games in a row. Everyone voiced to call him up and now he’s hitting speed bumps the fan base has resorted to fat shame him on a daily basis. He’s 21 and we’re not winning this year. Just relax man.

 

And for those saying well he hasnt done anything in the majors yet. From July 19 to August 22 2019 he hit .387/.449/.689

And for a longer run of being a great hitter. From May 14 to August 22 2019 he hit .296/.367/.515. Thats a half season of being a all star calibre hitter. At age 20.

[Deadpool]

If Vlad hits this way for the rest of the season, and comes to next year's camp (whenever that may be) having not lost any less than 30 pounds, will he have reached bust status?

 

You mean his August wRC+ of 135? I don't think that qualifies as a bust, no.

[Spanky99]

I have the utmost confidence in Vladdy's bat. The only defence of Vladdy that has holes in it is when people compare his body to guys like Miguel Cabrera. Cabrera was playing the f***ing outfield at Vladdy's age.

 

His body is absolutely a problem. You do not need belly fat to mash. It is only a negative.

 

In all fairness, Miggy was terrible in the OF and short lived. Vlad mentioned his conditioning needed to be better the other day, I thought it was good of him to admit the covid period he wasn't doing what he should and eat right.

[wilko]

In all fairness, Miggy was terrible in the OF and short lived. Vlad mentioned his conditioning needed to be better the other day, I thought it was good of him to admit the covid period he wasn't doing what he should and eat right.

 

Dude's a pro athlete, he shouldn't have to be on weight watch. He'll probably never be in peak shape with that thic body, but for f*** sakes have some self control.

[Spanky99]

Dude's a pro athlete, he shouldn't have to be on weight watch. He'll probably never be in peak shape with that thic body, but for f*** sakes have some self control.

 

No doubt, bro. He and the club said it last October, he came in at a better weight/shape at ST... season was suspended and he chucked it out the window, Birds took him off 3rd, I think he finally gets it, right? lol

[Maahfaace]

Is it his added weight causing him to pop his head up right before he makes contact? He GB rate is f***ing ridiculous, and seems to be sustainable...

[Olerud363]

Is it his added weight causing him to pop his head up right before he makes contact? He GB rate is f***ing ridiculous, and seems to be sustainable...

 

He had an all time great night last night for an average -15 launch angle. Two 110 mph groundball doubles.

 

It looks according to the savant box score 110 mph at -4 degrees is still a .410 expected average, at -18 degrees it's only .210 or so.

 

I think if he has to hit ground balls he needs to distribute them evenly so he's not shiftable. If he takes that approach he could still be a .300 hitter with 40 doubles, 20 homers, and if he can be really patient could still eke out a good career.

 

Of course as everyone has pointed out if he can start hitting even an average amount of fly balls he is a man-god-legend-child and will for sure out hit even Fernando Tatis JR.

[Laika]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/yandy-diaz-and-the-groundball-revolution/

[baubau]

In all fairness, Miggy was terrible in the OF and short lived. Vlad mentioned his conditioning needed to be better the other day, I thought it was good of him to admit the covid period he wasn't doing what he should and eat right.

 

I mean, that is great and all but saying something and doing it are two different things Spanks. He said that last year too no? He was working all offseason, posting videos, etc. He already knows it needs to be better. Its more concerning that he let covid stop him. I understand safety is an issue but doesn't he have a private gym or work out area he could go to? Shouldn't he still be watching his diet?

 

Saying it and being consistent with it are two different things for Vlad, we'll see how things go from here on out.

[Spanky99]

No doubt, bro. He and the club said it last October, he came in at a better weight/shape at ST... season was suspended and he chucked it out the window, Birds took him off 3rd, I think he finally gets it, right? lol

 

I mean, that is great and all but saying something and doing it are two different things Spanks. He said that last year too no? He was working all offseason, posting videos, etc. He already knows it needs to be better. Its more concerning that he let covid stop him. I understand safety is an issue but doesn't he have a private gym or work out area he could go to? Shouldn't he still be watching his diet?

 

Saying it and being consistent with it are two different things for Vlad, we'll see how things go from here on out.

 

...

[Olerud363]

So I laid off this thread for a bit. Gave Vladdy some room. The fat-ass didn't do his part though... went to bbref to check some unrelated stats and tried to avoid looking at Vlad's stat line but I saw it out of the corner of my eye.

 

Our fat little failure is now at like .245 .320 .420.

 

Solid step back from last year. Growing backwards and nicely at replacement level. uuhhhhgggggg....

 

I know it is annoying to have this thread bumped, but only Vlad can end this thread by starting to perform above replacement. He has like 2 weeks to get hot and at least have something positive to go into 2021 with... there is a chance his 2020 statline will look awful, a bad 2 weeks and he's going to be stuck going into 2021 looking like Billy Mckinney, even if he's only 21 it sucks that the greatest prospect ever could look like Billy McKinney without the ability to play outfield defence.