General 2020 Blue Jays Discussion Thread

[Spanky99]

[L54]

Yikes

[Carlos Danger]

people who work in the Jays F.O. have said that Shapiro has zero say in player personnel decisions, beyond approving a budget.

 

Then why did AA leave?

[dineke]

Then why did AA leave?

 

Because Daddy Shapiro would not let him get away with s*** like geriatric Beeston did.

[Spanky99]

Then why did AA leave?

 

Ask Alex... he was offered the job and walked.

[Carlos Danger]

Because Daddy Shapiro would not let him get away with s*** like geriatric Beeston did.

 

So, if that is true, which I believe it is, that means he would not have full autonomy. If AA would not have full autonomy, why would Atkins?

[Spanky99]

So, if that is true, which I believe it is, that means he would not have full autonomy. If AA would not have full autonomy, why would Atkins?

 

Is that true, it was only speculated? AA walked away from the barren he left man, it's pretty simple. Atkins was on notice, lol. Alex knew he left the team in a bind, he bailed.

[Deadpool]

Still looks like a lot more than 10 pounds of bad weight there.

 

He doesn't need to be a fitness model, just needs more flexibility and mobility. Doesn't bother me at all if he's a chubster, as long as he's a chubster who can hit and make plays wherever he ends up in the field.

[Jimcanuck]

He doesn't need to be a fitness model, just needs more flexibility and mobility. Doesn't bother me at all if he's a chubster, as long as he's a chubster who can hit and make plays wherever he ends up in the field.

 

And needs to reduce the stress on those knees.

[Perfect Game]

So, if that is true, which I believe it is, that means he would not have full autonomy. If AA would not have full autonomy, why would Atkins?

 

Because Atkins is a better GM.

[Spanky99]

He doesn't need to be a fitness model, just needs more flexibility and mobility. Doesn't bother me at all if he's a chubster, as long as he's a chubster who can hit and make plays wherever he ends up in the field.

 

Projections work... https://www.fangraphs.com/players/vladimir-guerrero-jr/19611/stats?position=3B/DH

[Carlos Danger]

Because Atkins is a better GM.

 

So Shapiro would not give autonomy to an experienced GM who had just made the ALCS, but he was going to give it to a guy who had never ever been a GM?

 

By what measure is Russ a better GM anyway. What metrics are available at this point to make that assertion.

 

Atkins was hand picked by Shapiro because he knew Atkins knew the deal/expectations/his place in the pecking order. Not only for “baseball skills”

[Spanky99]

So Shapiro would not give autonomy to an experienced GM who had just made the ALCS, but he was going to give it to a guy who had never ever been a GM?

 

By what measure is Russ a better GM anyway. What metrics are available at this point to make that assertion.

 

Atkins was hand picked by Shapiro because he knew Atkins knew the deal/expectations/his place in the pecking order. Not only for “baseball skills”

 

You're reaching, AA walked man.

[keggy]

Because Atkins is a better GM.

 

That's a pretty hot take outside of Toronto. Anthopoulos was recruited by two of the best run organizations in baseball and has seen nothing but success since leaving.

[Jimcanuck]

That's a pretty hot take outside of Toronto. Anthopoulos was recruited by two of the best run organizations in baseball and has seen nothing but success since leaving.

 

LA was already successful. AA stepped into a gold mine in Atlanta. He has, though, similar to what he did in Toronto, obtained some crazy good contracts.

[Jays24]

That's a pretty hot take outside of Toronto. Anthopoulos was recruited by two of the best run organizations in baseball and has seen nothing but success since leaving.

 

Lets see how Atkins handles the next year or two, which will determine his legacy here. I'm a big fan of AA so it took me a long time to become content with Atkins but hes definitely trending in a good spot.

[dineke]

AA was a mediocre gm here and and most of the heavy lifting in Atlanta was done before him . Atkins has actually built a young and exciting roster so he's probably better than AA, not a high bar though.

[Dick_Pole]

Atkins is the brains, AA is the brawn. If by brawn we are talking negotiating skills and an ability/willingness to make ballsy moves and by no means anything physical. I also think AA is a harder worker. Donaldson doesn't just fall in your lap. You gotta work the phones for that s***.

 

So the two have pretty different skill sets and it's hard to say which one is better and easy to say both could be better if they had a bit of the other's strength.

[keggy]

AA was a mediocre gm here and and most of the heavy lifting in Atlanta was done before him . Atkins has actually built a young and exciting roster so he's probably better than AA, not a high bar though.

 

The Dodgers, Braves, and probably two thirds of the front offices in baseball would disagree with that assessment.

[Perfect Game]

Well for starters Atkins knows how to build a team from the ground up, understands player development and isn't a saber denier. He also doesn't view GM meetings as "a waste of time" like AA does.

Atkins isn't counting on the Yanks & Sox having a down year in order to make the playoffs, the goal is to always be competitive.

AA is a great negotiator I'll give him credit on that front but if I was an owner, knowing AA's track record while he was here he wouldn't be my choice for GM.

[Perfect Game]

He was also recruited by the Twins & turned the job down, at the time the Twins needed someone to put the finishing touches on their rebuild. Gut feeling tells me that AA himself felt he couldn't live up to those expectations & he most likely didn't want to work for owners known to be cheap.

As for his success in Atlanta, he walked into a team on the cusp with a stacked farm owned by a publicly traded corporation (easier to point the finger when the purse strings get tightened). He fired the two guys that were instrumental in helping build that team & replaced them with his pal Dana Brown, the guy who claims that "the calculator guys are ruining baseball".

[saskjayfan]

Well for starters Atkins knows how to build a team from the ground up, understands player development and isn't a saber denier. He also doesn't view GM meetings as "a waste of time" like AA does.

Atkins isn't counting on the Yanks & Sox having a down year in order to make the playoffs, the goal is to always be competitive.

AA is a great negotiator I'll give him credit on that front but if I was an owner, knowing AA's track record while he was here he wouldn't be my choice for GM.

 

So AA is a Saber denier and believes GM meetings are a waste of time. That sounds like a whole lot of fiction.

[Brownie19]

Well for starters Atkins knows how to build a team from the ground up, understands player development and isn't a saber denier. He also doesn't view GM meetings as "a waste of time" like AA does.

Atkins isn't counting on the Yanks & Sox having a down year in order to make the playoffs, the goal is to always be competitive.

AA is a great negotiator I'll give him credit on that front but if I was an owner, knowing AA's track record while he was here he wouldn't be my choice for GM.

 

He was also recruited by the Twins & turned the job down, at the time the Twins needed someone to put the finishing touches on their rebuild. Gut feeling tells me that AA himself felt he couldn't live up to those expectations & he most likely didn't want to work for owners known to be cheap.

As for his success in Atlanta, he walked into a team on the cusp with a stacked farm owned by a publicly traded corporation (easier to point the finger when the purse strings get tightened). He fired the two guys that were instrumental in helping build that team & replaced them with his pal Dana Brown, the guy who claims that "the calculator guys are ruining baseball".

 

Any other tinfoil assumptions you'd like to base your opinions on?

 

It's also amazing to see how quickly people twist reality and forget that AA built the Jays a very strong farm system after inheriting the s*** that JP left behind.

[metafour]

So, if that is true, which I believe it is, that means he would not have full autonomy. If AA would not have full autonomy, why would Atkins?

 

Of course he would not have had absolute "full autonomy" - the problem here is that you are now making a hyperbolic conclusion which implies that if one does not have "full autonomy", then this simultaneously concludes that there is meddling or micromanaging going on. That is a fallacy. "Full autonomy" is a complete misnomer because no GM in baseball has absolute "full autonomy". If you want to get technical, even Anthopolous under Beeston didn't have "full autonomy" because Beeston's run-ins with Boras quite obviously meant that Anthopolous COULD NOT target his players even if he wanted to. If your lone title is "GM", then that means that you have a boss (ie: the team President). If you have a boss, then by definition you can never have absolute "full autonomy".

 

The reason why Anthopolous left is actually very simple - he was protecting his own self interests. As it became obvious that Beeston (his safety net) was going to be replaced, the natural train of thought is to assume that the next President would want to bring in his own GM - especially when the incumbent GM (in this case Anthopolous) had never made the playoffs and thus hadn't built up any job security. Seeing this, Anthopolous rushed to actualize his "playoff push" and this resulted in a legitimately elite playoff contender which secured Anthopolous' job once Shapiro was hired, because Anthopolous had been crowned as the prince of Canada for finally getting the Jays back into the playoffs. However, the makeup of that 2015 team was fundamentally flawed for the reason that the core was built around old and declining players who were not only well on the wrong side of 30, but were entering free agency and looking to get paid. Furthermore, due to trade activity which led to that 2015 playoff run, Anthopolous had stripped the farm system of any MLB-ready difference makers which could have offset the natural decline of an aging roster - our best prospects were all in rookie ball. This meant that the only way to continue that playoff run would be to double-down with overpaid acquisitions through free agency, which would eventually lead to a catastrophic end-point. Shapiro, being an analytically driven baseball executive, would obviously not push the team down that path as that model of team building had already been exposed numerous times as foolish. This meant that a REBUILD was inevitable and Anthopolous obviously knew that himself, because he's not an idiot or incompetent. So how does this lead to Anthoplous protecting his own self interests? Simple: he could walk out on his own terms while looking like a genius while his "value" in the MLB was at his highest, take an easy job for a year or two in LA under Friedman, and then just wait for the perfect opportunity to come calling - which is exactly what he did. His other option would have been to stay here and to actualize a necessary rebuild/strip down of the roster wherein he'd have to face the brunt of going from "fan favourite" to the guy who didn't keep pushing for a World Series, which would only tarnish his public perception. He was obviously very smart and left that part to Shapiro/Atkins as he himself rode off into the sunset. He was probably also rightfully paranoid of the possibility that while Shapiro would keep him on as GM, under an inevitable rebuild he could get pushed out and replaced after 2-3 years in which case he'd now be entering "executive free agency" not as the guy coming off a near World Series appearance, but as the guy coming off of a rebuild.

 

To rise from a guy working in the mail room to GM requires a lot of foresight and power-moves in order to propel yourself higher and higher. Anthopolous is obviously extremely good at this game. After 2015, he correctly saw the writing on the wall and left on his own terms, which allowed him to take all of the glory while absolving himself of any responsibility with cleaning up the spilled milk. Note how after he left, he took a job with an elite organization in its prime - which meant that his reputation could not in any way be lowered. Then, he took his time to make sure only to take control of an organization which was already on the rise and bustling with young talent.

[Jimcanuck]

It's also amazing to see how quickly people twist reality and forget that AA built the Jays a very strong farm system after inheriting the s*** that JP left behind.

 

AA emptied the farm to make the playoffs. Atkins made the playoffs without damaging an elite farm.

[Carlos Danger]

AA emptied the farm to make the playoffs. Atkins made the playoffs without damaging an elite farm.

 

We made the playoffs in a shortened season with 16 teams made the playoffs and we were out in 2. The baseball odds are saying unless the Jays get a Bauer and a Singer or something like that, we are not making the playoffs in 2021 assuming it is 162 and normal amount of playoff teams.

 

The 2016 team was still majority AAs and Tony LaCava doing the Happ or Estrada resigns,, I can't recall which.

[Krylian]

Well for starters Atkins knows how to build a team from the ground up, understands player development and isn't a saber denier. He also doesn't view GM meetings as "a waste of time" like AA does.

Atkins isn't counting on the Yanks & Sox having a down year in order to make the playoffs, the goal is to always be competitive.

AA is a great negotiator I'll give him credit on that front but if I was an owner, knowing AA's track record while he was here he wouldn't be my choice for GM.

 

I think a lot of GM's think the meetings are a waste of time...they just won't go on the record and say it. AA is hardly the only one.

[Krylian]

AA emptied the farm to make the playoffs. Atkins made the playoffs without damaging an elite farm.

 

It's disingenuous to think that making the 2020 playoffs is the same as making the playoffs in a standard year.

[Jimcanuck]

We made the playoffs in a shortened season with 16 teams made the playoffs and we were out in 2. The baseball odds are saying unless the Jays get a Bauer and a Singer or something like that, we are not making the playoffs in 2021 assuming it is 162 and normal amount of playoff teams.

 

The 2016 team was still majority AAs and Tony LaCava doing the Happ or Estrada resigns,, I can't recall which.

 

And Atkins did it with like 60% of the salary budget AA had. There's really no doubt Atkins is the better GM.

[Carlos Danger]

Of course he would not have had absolute "full autonomy" - the problem here is that you are now making a hyperbolic conclusion which implies that if one does not have "full autonomy", then this simultaneously concludes that there is meddling or micromanaging going on. That is a fallacy. "Full autonomy" is a complete misnomer because no GM in baseball has absolute "full autonomy". If you want to get technical, even Anthopolous under Beeston didn't have "full autonomy" because Beeston's run-ins with Boras quite obviously meant that Anthopolous COULD NOT target his players even if he wanted to. If your lone title is "GM", then that means that you have a boss (ie: the team President). If you have a boss, then by definition you can never have absolute "full autonomy".

 

The reason why Anthopolous left is actually very simple - he was protecting his own self interests. As it became obvious that Beeston (his safety net) was going to be replaced, the natural train of thought is to assume that the next President would want to bring in his own GM - especially when the incumbent GM (in this case Anthopolous) had never made the playoffs and thus hadn't built up any job security. Seeing this, Anthopolous rushed to actualize his "playoff push" and this resulted in a legitimately elite playoff contender which secured Anthopolous' job once Shapiro was hired, because Anthopolous had been crowned as the prince of Canada for finally getting the Jays back into the playoffs. However, the makeup of that 2015 team was fundamentally flawed for the reason that the core was built around old and declining players who were not only well on the wrong side of 30, but were entering free agency and looking to get paid. Furthermore, due to trade activity which led to that 2015 playoff run, Anthopolous had stripped the farm system of any MLB-ready difference makers which could have offset the natural decline of an aging roster - our best prospects were all in rookie ball. This meant that the only way to continue that playoff run would be to double-down with overpaid acquisitions through free agency, which would eventually lead to a catastrophic end-point. Shapiro, being an analytically driven baseball executive, would obviously not push the team down that path as that model of team building had already been exposed numerous times as foolish. This meant that a REBUILD was inevitable and Anthopolous obviously knew that himself, because he's not an idiot or incompetent. So how does this lead to Anthoplous protecting his own self interests? Simple: he could walk out on his own terms while looking like a genius while his "value" in the MLB was at his highest, take an easy job for a year or two in LA under Friedman, and then just wait for the perfect opportunity to come calling - which is exactly what he did. His other option would have been to stay here and to actualize a necessary rebuild/strip down of the roster wherein he'd have to face the brunt of going from "fan favourite" to the guy who didn't keep pushing for a World Series, which would only tarnish his public perception. He was obviously very smart and left that part to Shapiro/Atkins as he himself rode off into the sunset. He was probably also rightfully paranoid of the possibility that while Shapiro would keep him on as GM, under an inevitable rebuild he could get pushed out and replaced after 2-3 years in which case he'd now be entering "executive free agency" not as the guy coming off a near World Series appearance, but as the guy coming off of a rebuild.

 

To rise from a guy working in the mail room to GM requires a lot of foresight and power-moves in order to propel yourself higher and higher. Anthopolous is obviously extremely good at this game. After 2015, he correctly saw the writing on the wall and left on his own terms, which allowed him to take all of the glory while absolving himself of any responsibility with cleaning up the spilled milk. Note how after he left, he took a job with an elite organization in its prime - which meant that his reputation could not in any way be lowered. Then, he took his time to make sure only to take control of an organization which was already on the rise and bustling with young talent.

 

So, your first novel had some good points. However, if I really had the time I could counter every example it did not work with a number where it did work. The Blue Jays have one more WS win then the Braves the past 25 years, yet the Braves were in the playoffs a LOT more. The Cubs have the same amount of WS wins in the last 20 years as the Dodgers. I disagree with my friend BTS that the Cubs win without Chapman. Blue Jays do not win in 92 without Cone. Blue Jays do not get to playoffs in 2015 without those moves.

 

Much like movie sequels, part II of your novel is no where near as good as part one. Your very first premise is dead wrong. AA was offered a contract, a large contract $$ wise. He had NO fear that Shapiro was going to kick him out and replace him. (unless he was prepared to eat a large contract)

 

You and I and no one on this board knows exactly what happened behind the scenes. You don't need to get legalize with what autonomy means. It is well known in all major league sports that many GMs have more autonomy as far as player decisions then others and more independence then others. Baseball, NFL, Basketball and Hockey.

 

This is what was predominant in the media the end of the 2015 season. Shapiro and AA had lunch, met, meeting or whatever and Shapiro was critical of AA, "selling the farm".

 

AA, a Canadian kid on the only Canadian team, who just experienced the greatest high in Canadian sport in 20 plus years, names Executive of the year, offered a multi- million dollar contract, loved by the media and fans at that time, still in his 30's, walks away.. Why??? It is industry consensus that it had to do with the "power" for lack of a better term that AA would have under Shapiro vs Beaston.

 

I can empathize with how he feels if I in my job kept my current title but someone new came in and said we are basically going to limit by inference or directly my independence and ability to act autonomously. I know I would be pissed. AA was a star at the time on a high, so what was it other than that, why he left??

 

Not directed at you, but this theory floating around that AA is anti-Sabre is not true if you believe AA's own words. If you watch any interviews with him post Jays, he specifically says he models himself after Theo Epstein who is a fusion of analytics (Sabre) and some traditional ways of assessing players, and that actually, as he gained experience, he move towards that positon from a more analytics based philosophy when he started. Epstein is obviously a very successful Baseball Executive and I have no issue with my GM wanting to emulate his success.

 

You are the one pedaling falsehoods as facts, and being Hyperbolic when you don’t even realize AA was offered a contract to stay, the rest of your points on this matter become background noise. Lastly, I have prefaced in every post I have made that I do not know anything anybody else on here does, I am just a fan looking at it from 50, 000ft and reading what was put out in the media. I have never tried to imply anything I am posting about GMs decisions is fact. Fine if you don’t like or agree with my opinions, but please stop being dishonest and projecting that I am posting facts.