General 2020 Blue Jays Discussion Thread

[Laika]

The only I think they have a chance is if the bats get hot and the pen performs like it did earlier this season. If they need to rely on their starters keeping them in a low scoring game, I don't see it happening. That said, we've all seen enough playoff series to realize how important pitching is...and I don't trust the Jays starters. So, if you want to play the math game? Ok....sure...they have a chance. Realistically though?

 

Every team in the playoffs has a realistic chance. Blake Snell could lay an egg. Shane Bieber could break his tibia in the Wild Card round. Trevor Bauer could slice his finger open fiddling with a drone. Gerrit Cole could get Covid19. Vladimir Guerrero Jr could click.

 

If talent was equal across all 16 teams then each has a 6.25% chance of taking it all. Talent is only moving that chance by maybe 4 points in either direction. Every team has a "realistic chance."

[glory]

Since the 2nd WC was implemented, here are the World Series champions:

 

Giants: 94-68

Red Sox: 97-65

Giants: 88-74

Royals: 95-67

Cubs: 103-58

Astros: 101-61

Red Sox: 108-54

Nationals: 93-69

 

The lowest win total for any team who made the playoffs during that stretch was 85 by the Twins in 2017, who then got disposed of easily by the Yankees in the WC game. In the year the Giants won with 88 wins, MadBum had to pitch out of his mind for that to happen.

 

The playoffs in baseball being a crapshoot is true, but it's not "every team that makes it has an equal chance". It just means teams with the best record or most talent don't always win. It doesn't mean bad teams are going to come in, get hot, and then steamroll through everyone. I think the round with the most risk in the new format is the WC round. I think we'll see the most upsets in that round. But beyond that? Like I said, over a 10 year span you might see a miracle team win it, but I'd be very surprised if that's the norm, or even close to it.

[Brownie19]

Since the 2nd WC was implemented, here are the World Series champions:

 

Giants: 94-68

Red Sox: 97-65

Giants: 88-74

Royals: 95-67

Cubs: 103-58

Astros: 101-61

Red Sox: 108-54

Nationals: 93-69

 

The lowest win total for any team who made the playoffs during that stretch was 85 by the Twins in 2017, who then got disposed of easily by the Yankees in the WC game. In the year the Giants won with 88 wins, MadBum had to pitch out of his mind for that to happen.

 

The playoffs in baseball being a crapshoot is true, but it's not "every team that makes it has an equal chance". It just means teams with the best record or most talent don't always win. It doesn't mean bad teams are going to come in, get hot, and then steamroll through everyone. I think the round with the most risk in the new format is the WC round. I think we'll see the most upsets in that round. But beyond that? Like I said, over a 10 year span you might see a miracle team win it, but I'd be very surprised if that's the norm, or even close to it.

 

Interesting breakdown. I understand the financial justification for keeping the expanded playoffs - but this breakdown, for me, tells me the current format is really solid and I'm disappointed they are going to change it. Maybe it will just end up like the NBA where the #1 seed beats the #8 seed almost every single time in a relatively unimportant playoff round.

[Laika]

Since the 2nd WC was implemented, here are the World Series champions:

 

Giants: 94-68

Red Sox: 97-65

Giants: 88-74

Royals: 95-67

Cubs: 103-58

Astros: 101-61

Red Sox: 108-54

Nationals: 93-69

 

The lowest win total for any team who made the playoffs during that stretch was 85 by the Twins in 2017, who then got disposed of easily by the Yankees in the WC game. In the year the Giants won with 88 wins, MadBum had to pitch out of his mind for that to happen.

 

The playoffs in baseball being a crapshoot is true, but it's not "every team that makes it has an equal chance". It just means teams with the best record or most talent don't always win. It doesn't mean bad teams are going to come in, get hot, and then steamroll through everyone. I think the round with the most risk in the new format is the WC round. I think we'll see the most upsets in that round. But beyond that? Like I said, over a 10 year span you might see a miracle team win it, but I'd be very surprised if that's the norm, or even close to it.

 

Jesus mathematical Christ, your list of examples does not help your case at all. Beside the teams I've put their MLB ranking based on Pythag W-L (run differential).

 

Giants: 94-68 -- 9th best team in baseball

Red Sox: 97-65 -- 2nd best team in baseball

Giants: 88-74 -- 10th best team in baseball

Royals: 95-67 -- 6th best team in baseball (Toronto was #1!)

Cubs: 103-58 -- best team in baseball

Astros: 101-61 -- 4th best team in baseball

Red Sox: 108-54 -- 2nd best team in baseball

Nationals: 93-69 -- 6th best team in baseball

 

10 teams make the playoffs and in those 8 years we have seen teams...

 

1

2 (x2)

4

6 (x2)

9

10

 

...win the world series.

 

Congratulations on proving that it's a crapshoot and anybody who gets in can take the crown.

[G-Snarls]

The only I think they have a chance is if the bats get hot and the pen performs like it did earlier this season. If they need to rely on their starters keeping them in a low scoring game, I don't see it happening. That said, we've all seen enough playoff series to realize how important pitching is...and I don't trust the Jays starters. So, if you want to play the math game? Ok....sure...they have a chance. Realistically though?

 

The bullpen is also a plus. Lots of teams go the pen in the playoffs by the 4th or 5th inning. That's a good option for this team too in games 2/3..

[Dick_Pole]

The Jays' chance of winning the World Series in 2020 is probably around the same chance of the team missing the playoffs. That should make both sides of this debate equally as happy.

[glory]

Jesus mathematical Christ, your list of examples does not help your case at all. Beside the teams I've put their MLB ranking based on Pythag W-L (run differential).

 

Giants: 94-68 -- 9th best team in baseball

Red Sox: 97-65 -- 2nd best team in baseball

Giants: 88-74 -- 10th best team in baseball

Royals: 95-67 -- 6th best team in baseball (Toronto was #1!)

Cubs: 103-58 -- best team in baseball

Astros: 101-61 -- 4th best team in baseball

Red Sox: 108-54 -- 2nd best team in baseball

Nationals: 93-69 -- 6th best team in baseball

 

10 teams make the playoffs and in those 8 years we have seen teams...

 

1

2 (x2)

4

6 (x2)

9

10

 

...win the world series.

 

Congratulations on proving that it's a crapshoot and anybody who gets in can take the crown.

 

The problem is you are using pythag to judge the quality of a team and I'm using their actual record over 162 games. Not sure why you think run differential trumps a team's actual record in a season long sample size. My point is, you don't see teams who win in the mid to high 80's go all the way in the current format if they happen to make a wild card spot. There's one exception, the Giants in 2014, and they had a once in a generation playoff performance from a starter they rode hard the whole way. Did you think the 2017 Twins had a real shot at a title that year? If you did, then we clearly disagree on how deep this crapshoot really is.

 

Again, my argument is not that average teams can't win. It's that it's very unlikely to happen most years. We are more likely to see good teams (85-89 wins) beat the great teams (95-100 wins). The more good teams that make it, obviously the crapshoot increases. If you find that to be unfair, then that's fine, but that's different from thinking a 77 win team has the same chance to win the whole damn thing as the good/great teams do.

[Dick_Pole]

What's the point of s***ing on the team? Everyone here knows that beyond Ryu is a black hole on the starting pitching side. Everyone here knows that because of that and several other reasons that the team's chances are slim. Hell with 16 teams in the playoffs, EVERYONE'S chances are slim. The Dodgers have by far the best chance and their fans have a 5/6th chance of being disappointed this year. Do people get off pointing out the obvious that the team is just slightly on the correct side of mediocre and is realistically two years away from serious contention? How about let's all just enjoy the season for what it is and see how it plays out?

[Jimcanuck]

Jays win WS this year, there will be no 16 team playoffs in 2021.

[wilko]

What's the point of s***ing on the team? Everyone here knows that beyond Ryu is a black hole on the starting pitching side. Everyone here knows that because of that and several other reasons that the team's chances are slim. Hell with 16 teams in the playoffs, EVERYONE'S chances are slim. The Dodgers have by far the best chance and their fans have a 5/6th chance of being disappointed this year. Do people get off pointing out the obvious that the team is just slightly on the correct side of mediocre and is realistically two years away from serious contention? How about let's all just enjoy the season for what it is and see how it plays out?

 

I had no reason to believe that they Jays would even make a playoff spot this year. Anything they do from this point on is a bonus.

[Laika]

The problem is you are using pythag to judge the quality of a team and I'm using their actual record over 162 games. Not sure why you think run differential trumps a team's actual record in a season long sample size. My point is, you don't see teams who win in the mid to high 80's go all the way in the current format if they happen to make a wild card spot. There's one exception, the Giants in 2014, and they had a once in a generation playoff performance from a starter they rode hard the whole way. Did you think the 2017 Twins had a real shot at a title that year? If you did, then we clearly disagree on how deep this crapshoot really is.

 

Again, my argument is not that average teams can't win. It's that it's very unlikely to happen most years. We are more likely to see good teams (85-89 wins) beat the great teams (95-100 wins). The more good teams that make it, obviously the crapshoot increases. If you find that to be unfair, then that's fine, but that's different from thinking a 77 win team has the same chance to win the whole damn thing as the good/great teams do.

 

Do you wipe before you s*** or something?

 

Run differential is a better measure of team quality than raw W-L but it doesn't get much better for you if we use actual W-L.

 

10 teams make the playoffs and in those 8 years we have seen teams...

 

1 (x2)

3 (x2)

4

5

9

10

 

...win the world series.

 

It's the same picture. A crap shoot.

[G-Snarls]

Everyone was set to complain about the sub 500 team that makes rhe playoffs. I'd rather it not be the Jays but it easily might be

[G-Snarls]

I had no reason to believe that they Jays would even make a playoff spot this year. Anything they do from this point on is a bonus.

 

F'n A right actually

 

[G-Snarls]

Only good thing is Yankees have nothing left to play before until the post season starts and the Orioles finally collaped as expected

 

I think we limp in to the wildcard round jjst over 500 and then who knows what happens

[Stangstag]

Jays win WS this year, there will be no 16 team playoffs in 2021.

 

Alternatively, Dodgers get bounced in round 1 this year by the sub .500 Reds

[Jays24]

I'm kinda new to the board but things like Giles getting Tommy John and Shoemaker making his return today get their own threads?

[Laika]

I'm kinda new to the board but things like Giles getting Tommy John and Shoemaker making his return today get their own threads?

 

If something is worth a decent amount of specific discussion then it's thread worthy. Giles TJS might be, but it could also fit in the general thread. Shoemaker starting tonight is probably not thread worthy.

[TheDragon]

Barrel percentage is way up, line drive percentage is up significantly, k rate is down 5% which is a big drop compared to his career norms, and he's swinging at a career best 29% of pitches out of the strike zone, and his swinging strike rate is a career best as well. His success is not simply due to home run luck, he's made some impressive changes right across the board after 6 full seasons in the big leagues, give the guy some credit where credit is due.

 

I'm not here to to knock your post but what happened to his "impressive changes"? Did he stop barreling and line-driving? IMO Grichuk has prone to hot streaks, it's just who he is, you could say this about all players but Grichuk is a more extreme example.

[Stangstag]

I'm not here to to knock your post but what happened to his "impressive changes"? Did he stop barreling and line-driving? IMO Grichuk has prone to hot streaks, it's just who he is, you could say this about all players but Grichuk is a more extreme example.

 

Seems like he's swinging out of the zone more and producing less hard contact.

[43211234]

It makes you wonder how much structural damage could have been avoided if Giles was immediately removed during that outing in Tampa Bay.

[Laika]

It makes you wonder how much structural damage could have been avoided if Giles was immediately removed during that outing in Tampa Bay.

 

And the thing last year. I don't remember the specific details but it was something like Giles being hurt, coming back, and immediately throwing back-to-backs and getting hurt again.

 

How much possible value did Charlie Montoyo single handedly destroy in the Giles situation?

[connorp]

And the thing last year. I don't remember the specific details but it was something like Giles being hurt, coming back, and immediately throwing back-to-backs and getting hurt again.

 

How much possible value did Charlie Montoyo single handedly destroy in the Giles situation?

 

So you’re going to throw that in the lap of a glorified lineup card writer over team doctors/medical staff... who apparently said “here you go, he’s back, it’s all on you now to figure out his usage”

[connorp]

That’s like blaming Steve Kerr for Kevin Durant

[Laika]

So you’re going to throw that in the lap of a glorified lineup card writer over team doctors/medical staff... who apparently said “here you go, he’s back, it’s all on you now to figure out his usage”

 

Shhhh. I’m drumming up emotions on the board

[Jimcanuck]

And the thing last year. I don't remember the specific details but it was something like Giles being hurt, coming back, and immediately throwing back-to-backs and getting hurt again.

 

How much possible value did Charlie Montoyo single handedly destroy in the Giles situation?

 

A shitload.

 

Last year they were trying to prove health for trade reasons. Backfired badly obviously.

 

It may not have been Montoya, actually.

[glory]

Merryweather placed on the DL with right elbow tendinitis.

 

I was holding out hope for him to start, but given his age and the fact that he has barely pitched in 3 years, just make the dude a reliever going forward.

[Stangstag]

Merryweather placed on the DL with right elbow tendinitis.

 

I was holding out hope for him to start, but given his age and the fact that he has barely pitched in 3 years, just make the dude a reliever going forward.

 

Dude is made of paper mache

[43211234]

Merryweather placed on the DL with right elbow tendinitis.

 

I was holding out hope for him to start, but given his age and the fact that he has barely pitched in 3 years, just make the dude a reliever going forward.

 

Not surprising. His velocity has been down in his last few outings.

[Krylian]

There's a good chance we never see Merryweather pitch again.

[Jays24]

Sooo is it time to call up 3rd Catcher so Kirk can DH tomorrow, and every game hes not behind the plate? There is 0 reason why Villar should get any at bats over this guy.