General 2020 Blue Jays Discussion Thread

[Beans]

HMMM, what has he accomplished?

Gold glove player

All star

geez what a terrible choice to be a bench/depth player. I would much rather have career negative WAR player Drury...NOT.

 

That was several years ago, and his batted ball profile has changed significantly since then.

 

I think we're more likely to catch lightning in a bottle with Drury than with Panik—he hits the ball harder, plays more positions off the bench.

[max silver]

Panik actually resembled a big league player in his career, which is more than Drury has done in the past few years. As long as Montoyo doesn't overplay him, he's fine as a bench player.

 

Panik has a better chance to provide some actual value on the field. It's unlikely to be much above replacement value, but at least that's better than the below replacement value that Drury has provided in his Blue Jays career.

[Spanky99]

That was several years ago, and his batted ball profile has changed significantly since then.

 

I think we're more likely to catch lightning in a bottle with Drury than with Panik—he hits the ball harder, plays more positions off the bench.

 

They'll likely both be on the roster. Drury needs to get the ball in the air, as you've just said he hits it hard.

[Orgfiller]

That was several years ago, and his batted ball profile has changed significantly since then.

 

I think we're more likely to catch lightning in a bottle with Drury than with Panik—he hits the ball harder, plays more positions off the bench.

 

Explain to me how Panik's batted ball profile has changed significantly over his career, and why I'm supposed to believe that he will clearly underperform his projections. Am I supposed to believe that his last year is his true talent level? Has 29 year old Joe Panik lost all his strength from two years ago when he was a league average hitter? Why would that be the case?

[Beans]

Explain to me how Panik's batted ball profile has changed significantly over his career, and why I'm supposed to believe that he will clearly underperform his projections. Am I supposed to believe that his last year is his true talent level? Has 29 year old Joe Panik lost all his strength from two years ago when he was a league average hitter? Why would that be the case?

 

For some reason I keep referring to statcast numbers as batted ball profiles, which is probably confusing for some, but that's what I meant.

 

From his first full season in 2015, where he made the All-Star team, to this past year in 2019, his WOBA, xWOBA, and xWOBAcon (the last two of which use quality and amount of contact) are as follows:

 

[/url]

 

He wasn't always so bad. Just two years ago in 2018 ZiPS had his preseason projections at 3 WAR. But then halfway through that season he started hitting more choppers into the ground at 80 mph, and he hasn't stopped since.

 

Only reason he was added to the 40-man roster was that his minor-league deal had an opt-out clause for March 15, and the Jays had to make a decision even with the season suspended.

 

And, by the way, 29 is old in today's game. I'm fine with him as a veteran bench piece, so long as he stays on the bench and Montoyo doesn't get cute about the vetrin presents.

Edited March 23, 2020 by Beans

[Spanky99]

Jays' Shapiro expects 4-week spring training before season

 

Mar 22, 2020 , By IAN HARRISON

 

TORONTO (AP) With no sign of when training camps can resume, Toronto Blue Jays president Mark Shapiro says he thinks Major League Baseball would need at least a month of workouts and exhibition games before regular season play can begin.

 

Opening day has been postponed until at least mid-May because of the coronavirus pandemic.

 

"Knowing that so many players are not even having any access to throwing at all or hitting at all, but most importantly just throwing, and probably limited access to just training and exercise, it's hard to imagine we could get ready in less than four weeks," Shapiro said in a teleconference with Toronto reporters.

 

Shapiro cautioned that training camps aren't likely to reopen for some time yet.

 

"I do think that we're, by and large, waiting for some sort of flattening of the curve and recognition that we have done our best to limit the strain on the healthcare system and the economic system," he said. "Until that time, the exact outcome and impact on our schedule, and all of the corresponding business that cascades off that, really can't be determined.

 

"It certainly looks like we are not dealing with days and likely not weeks, but closer to months," he said.

 

Speaking from his Toronto home, where he and his family are isolating themselves, Shapiro said he expects negotiations between Major League Baseball and the players' union on an industry-wide plan to compensate players for missed games to conclude "in the next 24 to 48 hours."

 

All but three of Toronto's major league players have left the team's spring training site in Dunedin, Florida. Those that remain are South Korean left-hander Hyun-Jin Ryu, Japanese right-hander Shun Yamaguchi and right-hander Rafael Dolis, who is from the Dominican Republic.

 

Shapiro said the three players "did not have any place to go." They are the only players who maintain access to Toronto's Florida facilities.

 

Ryu is accompanied by his wife, who is seven months pregnant.

 

Shapiro said no Blue Jays players or staff have displayed any symptoms of the new coronavirus, and that no one has been tested.

 

Some 30 minor league players and four staffers who have been unable to go home are being housed in a Dunedin-area hotel, Shapiro said. Eighteen of those players are from Venezuela, and cannot return home.

 

Shapiro said Toronto's big league players have been given individualized workout plans, while minor league players still at the team hotel in Florida have received workouts they can perform in their rooms.

 

"The physical exercise they can do is as much about mental health and maintaining some semblance of normalcy and routine, and probably a little bit less baseball-specific," Shapiro said. "There's almost no one who could maintain game-ready shape in light of circumstances."

 

---

[Orgfiller]

For some reason I keep referring to statcast numbers as batted ball profiles, which is probably confusing for some, but that's what I meant.

 

From his first full season in 2015, where he made the All-Star team, to this past year in 2019, his WOBA, xWOBA, and xWOBAcon (the last two of which use quality and amount of contact) are as follows:

 

[/url]

 

He wasn't always so bad. Just two years ago in 2018 ZiPS had his preseason projections at 3 WAR. But then halfway through that season he started hitting more choppers into the ground at 80 mph, and he hasn't stopped since.

 

Only reason he was added to the 40-man roster was that his minor-league deal had an opt-out clause for March 15, and the Jays had to make a decision even with the season suspended.

 

And, by the way, 29 is old in today's game. I'm fine with him as a veteran bench piece, so long as he stays on the bench and Montoyo doesn't get cute about the vetrin presents.

 

Okay, so he had one obvious outlier in 2015, not debating you there. Then he proceeded to have 3 straight seasons with identical xWOBACON and slightly worse xWOBA between 2016 and 2017-2018. A ~.315 wOBA in San Francisco is like a ~95 wRC+? Obviously he was awful last season or we wouldn't have signed him to a minor league deal with an opportunity to make the team out of ST.

 

I think it'd be unfair to look at him having one clear down season and say this is who he is going forward, a simply awful baseball player. 29 is definitely not old lol, post prime at worst, but I doubt he's had one of the worst possible declines where he is on the aging curve, so I'd bet on him being closer to his xWOBA from the last couple of seasons (even averaging out his xWOBACON gives roughly the same as his projection). His actual batted ball profile hasn't changed, as his LD%, GB%, FB% and IFFB% are all along career averages.

 

From the beginning you argued that Panik is absolute trash and has no purpose being on our roster, everyone else is arguing that he's just a bench player who won't hurt us too much and will be fine in that role. If Montoyo plays him too much, which I'm not sure he will as I can't see Biggio getting as much time around the field as before, then that has nothing to do with his projected performance.

[Deadpool]

Is it weird that I'm a bit bummed that Ryu's kid won't be born in Canada because of this?

[King]

Is it weird that I'm a bit bummed that Ryu's kid won't be born in Canada because of this?

Yes.

[Jimcanuck]

Is it weird that I'm a bit bummed that Ryu's kid won't be born in Canada because of this?

 

Don't you have enough to be bummed about these days?

[Beans]

Okay, so he had one obvious outlier in 2015, not debating you there. Then he proceeded to have 3 straight seasons with identical xWOBACON and slightly worse xWOBA between 2016 and 2017-2018. A ~.315 wOBA in San Francisco is like a ~95 wRC+?

 

Yah, those three straight seasons with identical xWOBAcon were f***ing terrible. In 2016 it was in the bottom 8th percentile, 2017 the bottom 4th percentile, and 2018 the bottom 9th percentile. But maybe xwOBAcon is unfair to Joe, since it excludes walks and not striking out, both of which he excels at.

 

What a .315 xWOBA means playing in San Francisco we know with xOBA, which is similar to xWOBA and also goes beyond to include running speed, weather, altitude, and park effects. Or better still, xOBA+, a park and league adjusted metric for xOBA, similar to wRC+

 

2015 — 144.7

2016 — 116.7

2017 — 104.4

2018 — 91.5

2019 — not out yet, but obviously worse, given the raw statcast numbers we have.

 

I think it'd be unfair to look at him having one clear down season and say this is who he is going forward, a simply awful baseball player. 29 is definitely not old lol, post prime at worst, but I doubt he's had one of the worst possible declines where he is on the aging curve, so I'd bet on him being closer to his xWOBA from the last couple of seasons (even averaging out his xWOBACON gives roughly the same as his projection). His actual batted ball profile hasn't changed, as his LD%, GB%, FB% and IFFB% are all along career averages.

 

The decline has been years in the making.

 

But I should have put that 29 is 'not young in today's game.' You're right, it's not old. I'm exaggerating today because of stress.

 

His batted ball profiles have been pretty stable, but the statcast numbers tell a very different story.

 

From the beginning you argued that Panik is absolute trash and has no purpose being on our roster, everyone else is arguing that he's just a bench player who won't hurt us too much and will be fine in that role.

 

From the beginning with me it wasn't about his being a bench player, it was about the idea floating around here that he is a bounce-back candidate who was going to get enough playing time to be flipped at the deadline for some prospect fliers. That's not going to happen, not just because the playing time won't be there, but because he is replacement-level at best.

[Boxcar]

We've been reduced to arguing for pages about Joe Panik being a bench player. These are s***** times.

 

For the record, my position is who gives a s***, he's a bench player.

[Dick_Pole]

This is on my playlist for today:

 

[Brownie19]

Good news folks. Pat Tabler is now available through social media. Apparently he's on twitter now so anyone who misses his awful takes on the game of baseball can rejoice.

[max silver]

Good news folks. Pat Tabler is now available through social media. Apparently he's on twitter now so anyone who misses his awful takes on the game of baseball can rejoice.

 

Perhaps over social media he won't be as bad as on a television broadcast doing color commentary. I think his best place on a baseball broadcast is actually in the studio where he has more time to put his thoughts together, he can offer more than platitudes and cliches in studio. I've found the quality of analysis he can offer differs greatly in studio vs live in game, and if Sportsnet flipped Joe Siddall and Pat Tabler around their broadcasts would be better off overall.

[Brownie19]

holy f*** the Skydome looked like s*** in 1992. The place was only 3 years old!

[Virgil_Hiltz]

holy f*** the Skydome looked like s*** in 1992. The place was only 3 years old!

 

Holy f***...my wife looked a lot hotter in 1992!!!

[Deadpool]

Holy f***...my wife looked a lot hotter in 1992!!!

 

My fiance was 2 in 1992. So, this does not apply for me.

[Brownie19]

Holy f***...my wife looked a lot hotter in 1992!!!

 

Yeah that's kind of the opposite of what I was saying...

[Beans]

holy f*** the Skydome looked like s*** in 1992. The place was only 3 years old!

 

Holy f***...my wife looked a lot hotter in 1992!!!

 

My fiance was 2 in 1992. So, this does not apply for me.

 

Deadpool, word to the wise: being randomly and transparently desperate to show off that your girl is much younger than you actually makes you look bad.

 

It's natural to want to brag sometimes, but in order not to come across as petty, wait for the proper context to drop in your humble brags (that's what I do).

[Deadpool]

Deadpool, word to the wise: being randomly and transparently desperate to show off that your girl is much younger than you actually makes you look bad.

 

It's natural to want to brag sometimes, but in order not to come across as petty, wait for the proper context to drop in your humble brags (that's what I do).

 

She's 30, I'm not with a teenager or anything

[Brownie19]

'92 World Series - Game 2

 

1st and 3rd with 1 out in the 8th and Cox leaves Smoltz in after he's thrown 119 pitches.

 

Baseball was so different...

[Brownie19]

Man this s*** is funny to look back on.

 

Why are Derek Bell and Ed Sprague even on the '92 playoff roster? I mean thank god they were for Game 2, but neither of them could hit in '92.

 

Why is Ron Gant coming off the bench? Lonnie Smith gets hit in the 9th inning to put the tieing run on first and Cox brings Gant in to run (then doesn't try to steal even though Borders couldn't throw out Kendrys Morales trying to steal) so he can let Otis Nixon hit.

[glory]

1992 Deion Sanders: 3.3 WAR, 136 wRC+, 325 PA

 

Then in the World Series he goes 8-15 with 2 walks and 5 steals.

 

He was actually a really good baseball player, even when he was half committed to it. If he was 100% committed to it, who knows how great he could have been. Obviously made the right choice with football, though.

[Spanky99]

Fun read... Vladdy or Wander?

 

https://www.mlb.com/news/comparing-vladimir-guerrero-jr-and-wander-franco

[BlueRocky]

Fun read... Vladdy or Wander?

 

https://www.mlb.com/news/comparing-vladimir-guerrero-jr-and-wander-franco

 

Wander Franco is really, really good. But his bat cannot touch Vlad’s ceiling in terms of raw power. There’s some alternate universe in his prime, Vladdy could be an 80/80 type hitter.

 

Just looking at those 20-year-old rookie exit velo numbers and what he did at the home-run derby, Vlad Jr has Giancarlo Stanton type exit velos with a plus-plus hit tool. He was 20 as a rookie and nowhere near his peak. That’s possibly a .300 hitter with 45+ HR and 100-walk season ahead of him in best case scenario. That’s really special.

 

Franco will produce a lot of hits, won’t K much, steal some bases for you and play solid defense. Those are special prospects that have great all-around game, but we always see one or two of those guys pop up (e.g. Acuna, Tatis jr).

 

I’m not saying one has a higher ceiling than another, they’re just completely different players. But it’s not often you see a bat come around that could scratch a Manny Ramirez type ceiling.

[glory]

The problem with Vlad is defence, base running, and GB rate. He can fix the latter and become one of the best hitters on the planet but the other two are going to hurt his value for the rest of his career.

[Jimcanuck]

Wander Franco is really, really good. But his bat cannot touch Vlad’s ceiling in terms of raw power. There’s some alternate universe in his prime, Vladdy could be an 80/80 type hitter.

 

Just looking at those 20-year-old rookie exit velo numbers and what he did at the home-run derby, Vlad Jr has Giancarlo Stanton type exit velos with a plus-plus hit tool. He was 20 as a rookie and nowhere near his peak. That’s possibly a .300 hitter with 45+ HR and 100-walk season ahead of him in best case scenario. That’s really special.

 

Franco will produce a lot of hits, won’t K much, steal some bases for you and play solid defense. Those are special prospects that have great all-around game, but we always see one or two of those guys pop up (e.g. Acuna, Tatis jr).

 

I’m not saying one has a higher ceiling than another, they’re just completely different players. But it’s not often you see a bat come around that could scratch a Manny Ramirez type ceiling.

 

Franco has otherworldly strike zone management / discipline. A reasonable projection is Lindor type numbers with a OBP at least 50 points higher

 

Franco has been thrown out some 40% of SB attempts. Given that he's 5'10" and already ~200 lbs at 19 yrs, the SB totals may be low.

[Stangstag]

'92 World Series - Game 2

 

1st and 3rd with 1 out in the 8th and Cox leaves Smoltz in after he's thrown 119 pitches.

 

Baseball was so different...

 

The Alomar homerun game against Oakland in 92 was an excellent display of terrible management. I was seriously dumbfounded at how little critical thinking was going on back in those days.

 

One of the highlights (not necessarily the manager’s idea but): McGwire bunting with a runner on 1st in the 8th inning in a tie game

[BlueRocky]

Franco has otherworldly strike zone management / discipline. A reasonable projection is Lindor type numbers with a OBP at least 50 points higher

 

Franco has been thrown out some 40% of SB attempts. Given that he's 5'10" and already ~200 lbs at 19 yrs, the SB totals may be low.

 

Lindor has multiple 30+ HR seasons and perennially 4-7 WAR player. It just might be a tad premature to call Franco the next Lindor +0.50 OBP. I’d like to see an MLB season under his belt before reserving a spot for him in Cooperstown, especially for a switch hitter.