Blue Jays have met with reps for Jake Odorizzi and have legit interest

[wamco]

Yes and in 2021, when the Jays hope to be a contender for a postseason berth, a solid mid-rotation guy like Odorrizi will be of great value. Meanwhile, the 2nd round draft pick player they would forfeit in 2020 draft to get him will, in 2021 be, at most, in A+ level. Eventually you need to sprinkle in some solid vets to take this thing up a notch, and now is the time with starting pitching for this team. f***, I can't believe people are complaining about losing a 2nd round pick to obtain a solid free agent for an area of desperate need.

 

You can sign a solid free agent at the same position without giving up a pick

 

It’s a different situation for cole/Strasburg than it is for odorizzi for me

[Bobthe4th]

Yes and in 2021, when the Jays hope to be a contender for a postseason berth, a solid mid-rotation guy like Odorrizi will be of great value. Meanwhile, the 2nd round draft pick player they would forfeit in 2020 draft to get him will, in 2021 be, at most, in A+ level. Eventually you need to sprinkle in some solid vets to take this thing up a notch, and now is the time with starting pitching for this team. f***, I can't believe people are complaining about losing a 2nd round pick to obtain a solid free agent for an area of desperate need.

 

It's not an either or.

It's not just the player picked, it's about $1.5m draft slot money given up, limiting the flexibility with picking players in later rounds.

If this front office has done one thing undeniably well it's drafting. Limiting their flexibility is therefore not smart.

A mid range free agent like Odorizzi is not going to make the difference between making the playoffs next year or not.

A mid range free agent like Odorizzi is not going to make the difference between World Series or not, in a few years when we are competing.

I don't think anyone is saying we can't possible sign anyone with a QO or that it'd be a disaster if we did.

Anyone saying there is no discernible impact to signing a free agent with a QO attached is wrong.

 

Did I miss anything?

[xposbrad]

Yes and in 2021, when the Jays hope to be a contender for a postseason berth, a solid mid-rotation guy like Odorrizi will be of great value. Meanwhile, the 2nd round draft pick player they would forfeit in 2020 draft to get him will, in 2021 be, at most, in A+ level. Eventually you need to sprinkle in some solid vets to take this thing up a notch, and now is the time with starting pitching for this team. f***, I can't believe people are complaining about losing a 2nd round pick to obtain a solid free agent for an area of desperate need.

 

Realistically, you are looking at most likely 2022/23 when some of the second batch of prospects come up and at least have a year to get adjusted. By that time, Odorrizi is 32 and you still need a #1 and #2 starter as he's a 3. Hopefully some of the young guys we have might turn into that #3. Of course, if payroll jumps to 180 and they sign Rendon/Cole this year, then you probably can look at 2021 to add a #2 starter and shore up the pen/of.

[The Cats Ass]

I was actually surprised to see Odorizzi was the 20th most valuable pitcher last year. That pretty much makes him a #1 pitcher for 11 teams. He'd be a good #2 for a playoff team.

 

If we're going after QO players though we should get 2 for sure though to make it worth while. Wheeler + Odorizzi would give us a playoff caliber(wildcard) rotation I feel.

 

Wheeler

Odorizzi

Pearson

Kay

Thornton

[z3r0s]

I was actually surprised to see Odorizzi was the 20th most valuable pitcher last year. That pretty much makes him a #1 pitcher for 11 teams. He'd be a good #2 for a playoff team.

 

If we're going after QO players though we should get 2 for sure though to make it worth while. Wheeler + Odorizzi would give us a playoff caliber(wildcard) rotation I feel.

 

Wheeler

Odorizzi

Pearson

Kay

Thornton

 

at the least it gives you a punchers chance. Risk in both those guys, but also really good upside.

[Brownie19]

I was actually surprised to see Odorizzi was the 20th most valuable pitcher last year. That pretty much makes him a #1 pitcher for 11 teams. He'd be a good #2 for a playoff team.

 

And that was in just 160 innings. With a couple more starts, he's probably 16th overall - right behind Wheeler. That said, you have to believe the improvements he made last year are sustainable. If they are, he's not a #3 pitcher like others keep suggesting. If they aren't, then he probably is more of a mid rotation type.

 

Wheeler repeated his 2018 breakout and thus is probably more likely to remain a top 20, top of the rotation pitcher. There's also a thought that with better coaching and pitch use that he has untapped potential.

[glory]

It's not an either or.

It's not just the player picked, it's about $1.5m draft slot money given up, limiting the flexibility with picking players in later rounds.

If this front office has done one thing undeniably well it's drafting. Limiting their flexibility is therefore not smart.

A mid range free agent like Odorizzi is not going to make the difference between making the playoffs next year or not.

A mid range free agent like Odorizzi is not going to make the difference between World Series or not, in a few years when we are competing.

I don't think anyone is saying we can't possible sign anyone with a QO or that it'd be a disaster if we did.

Anyone saying there is no discernible impact to signing a free agent with a QO attached is wrong.

 

Did I miss anything?

 

That's the way I see it. If we're going to lose a pick, go big. Go after Cole. Go after Rendon. Wheeler would be fine too on the less expensive end since he has the velocity and performance of a front end starter when healthy. He also didn't have 14 of his 30 starts against the AL Central in 2019 like Odorizzi did either.

 

There has to be some level of expectation when signing a qualified FA. It can't be "this guy can help us in the next 3 years". It has to be "this guy is going to be one of the best players on our next competitive team" type of signings, and Odorizzi doesn't inspire that type of confidence in me. Not after one 4 win season and a history prior to that of 2ish war performance.

[wamco]

Odorizzi was a five and dive guy last year. Don’t get the big deal.

 

If he signs for under 50m is the draft pick still forfeited?

[wamco]

If you work up tomorrow and saw we signed Julio Tehran , wouldn’t you feel roughly the same?

[Maico450]

My thoughts are leaning more towards signing 2 mid rotation FA. If you got both Keuchel and Teheran, neither would cost picks or Intl FA money, and both have shown to be durable mid rotation guys who can eat up innings and give QS. Every free agent signing is a crapshoot, nobody knows what the future will bring. Going this route at least will not hamper the payroll, the future drafts, the Intl. FA $ pool, and vastly improve the current starting rotation.

[The Cats Ass]

If you work up tomorrow and saw we signed Julio Tehran , wouldn’t you feel roughly the same?

 

No.

[BTS]

If you work up tomorrow and saw we signed Julio Tehran , wouldn’t you feel roughly the same?

 

I think Odorizzi is probably more of a reliable 2-3 win SP3 than a 4+ win starter going forward, but I'd be a lot happier with him than Teheran. Teheran's control has abandoned him as his fastball velo has dipped below 90, and is probably looking at a 1-year deal for like 5M or something. For Odorizzi, everything ticked up last year and he's projected for an ERA like a full run less than Teheran. If ends up signing for like 3/45 like most seem to be projecting, the pick compensation takes the value of the deal to something like 3/50, which is pretty reasonable for a pitcher who is a least average, and has displayed no real red flags.

[Brownie19]

If you work up tomorrow and saw we signed Julio Tehran , wouldn’t you feel roughly the same?

 

My thoughts are leaning more towards signing 2 mid rotation FA. If you got both Keuchel and Teheran, neither would cost picks or Intl FA money, and both have shown to be durable mid rotation guys who can eat up innings and give QS. Every free agent signing is a crapshoot, nobody knows what the future will bring. Going this route at least will not hamper the payroll, the future drafts, the Intl. FA $ pool, and vastly improve the current starting rotation.

 

Teheran just seems like another depth guy. 2.3 WAR in 350 innings the past 2 seasons is super mediocre. High BB% guys also drive me nuts. Keuchel? Meh.

[Spanky99]

lol

[BTS]

Teheran's Steamer projections are gnarly.

[Jimcanuck]

With Anderson in the fold (I think some of you forgot about him), it's likely the FO is only looking to acquire 1 more starting pitcher?

 

Excluding the usual shitbag minor league depth signings

[BTS]

With Anderson in the fold (I think some of you forgot about him), it's likely the FO is only looking to acquire 1 more starting pitcher?

 

Likley? Probbaly. I still think they can and should acquire two, as most of the depth guys have options remaining.

 

New Guy

New Guy

Anderson

Thornton

Shoemaker

BP - Font

BP - Gaviglio

 

AAA - Pearson

AAA - Borucki

AAA - Waguespack

AAA - Kay

AAA - Zeuch

AAA - Mayweather

 

Pannone/SRF/Murphy all moved to the bullpen full time.

[z3r0s]

You need to acquire 2 because we don't have anyone worthy of the top half of the rotation. We all hope Pearson is, but you can't bank on it, and you can't bank it for next year.

 

I think the FO needs to show some real positive progress to keep their jobs. There are guys on the market this year that could be legit #2 options and don't appear to command crazy stupid contracts (in term). That's pretty favorable for the Jays.

[glory]

For those asking what the big deal is about losing a pick:

 

[Brownie19]

For those asking what the big deal is about losing a pick:

 

 

Not quite sure what that has to do with draft pick compensation. This very well could be Odorizzi betting on himself. I don't think anyone expects him to get a AAV over $17.8M and he may feel the market is saturated with options this year. Instead of taking 3 years $45M, he may want to take $17.8M - prove his success last year is sustainable and enter the market in 2020 as one of the top arms available.

[Brownie19]

If you work up tomorrow and saw we signed Julio Tehran , wouldn’t you feel roughly the same?

 

I think I might actually feel worse.

[TheHurl]

For those asking what the big deal is about losing a pick:

 

 

Stroman going to rage at being called the weaker class

[wamco]

Teheran was an example. Fill in for him your flavor of choice FA SP that doesn’t require draft pick compensation

[Brownie19]

Teheran was an example. Fill in for him your flavor of choice FA SP that doesn’t require draft pick compensation

 

Gibson, Pineda and Roark would be my preference (as guys that might fall into the Teheran category.....Ryu is in another price bracket)

[Brownie19]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-pitch-behind-jake-odorizzis-career-year/

[Spanky99]

Gibson, Pineda and Roark would be my preference (as guys that might fall into the Teheran category.....Ryu is in another price bracket)

 

I'd say Teheran is worse than all of those guys mentioned. We've already picked up a guy of his ilk in Anderson.

[wamco]

AGAIN, just an example for the exercise. Use Gibson or whomever else in the equation

[Ray]

Odorizzi has accepted the Qualifying Offer.

 

Honestly not the worst idea. High AAV. If his 2019 was real and he repeats, he'll probably come out slightly ahead.

[G-Snarls]

Odorizzi has accepted the Qualifying Offer.

 

Honestly not the worst idea. High AAV deal. If his 2019 was real and he repeats, he'll probably come out slightly ahead.

 

So much for that...

[BTS]

It was fun while it lasted.