Fan graphs messed up??? (Vladimir Guerrero defense)

[Olerud363]

Those of you following fWAR and bWAR (rWar??) have probably noticed that our Hero, our obese ground ball machine, Vladimir Guerrero JR, is rated much higher on reference because his defense is about neutral. We all concluded this is ********... but...

 

I just went to check fWar, to see if our hero managed negative WAR on the season... and

 

WHAT THE f***??? https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=19611&position=3B

 

It is reporting his defense is only -1.2.... somehow he gained 10 runs since the last update (I assume the defense is only updated once every few weeks, as the numbers seem stagnate for a while then jump)

 

Vladdies rWar, and fWar now are much closer. Vladdie is now a top 5/6 2019 Toronto Blue Jay with fWar of 1.4 and rWar of 2.1. He is neutral defensively

 

Is this a bug?? Did fangraphs just mess up?? Will Vladdie return to the -15 or so runs below average that we all love??

 

What in gods in name is going on?? If this was true it would change everything about our reality... every single f***ing post on this board would be complete ********. The narrative that Vladdy is a fat man that can't hit, would be Vladdy holds his own at third, and WILL HIT (Someday soon).

[BTS]

It’s a bug. His UZR was at -10 or something and now there’s no value there in the defense table, so he got an additional win temporarily.

 

Looks like 2019 UZR is gone for everyone.

[Olerud363]

Thanks...

 

Back to regular programming... Our fat obese ground ball hitter, with -15 or so defense, is still the 70th best rookie, 40th best position player rookie, 7th on his own team in rookie HR rate, 6th on his own team in rookie WAR, probably 15th on team in overall home run rate, and still flirting with negative fWAR....

 

In a year where random Minnesota twins and the Yankees injury replacements both hit 300+ team homeruns... Vladimir hit 15.... even the dissapointing rookies, like Jiminez doubled him. Biggio beat him in less games.

 

Yordan Alvarez set the rookie record for OPS, Pete Alonso the rookie homerun record, and it's the norm, that very young players, hit the ground running, their minor league stats translating accurately, their fly balls flying into night and bringing joy to the fanbase...

 

And we got a fat ground ball hitter who can't field the ground balls coming the other way...

 

Oh well only 5 or 6 ground balls left this year... one got through last night, maybe another one gets through over the next couple games... hopefully things are better next year.

[Laika]

Probably some overnight update for UZR did not work properly on the website.

[BlueBaller]

at least he's elite at having fun on the bench. I mean who take notes on the pitcher when you can horse around instead.

[Olerud363]

It's pretty unbelievable when you look at the stats...

 

Every single player, that played significant time this year, has a better home rate then Vlad. Sogard does, Jansen does, McKinney does, Fisher does, Galvis does, Vlad is 15th on the team in home runs per plate appearnce. 15th!

[Olerud363]

I guess if you are looking for good news, the defense thing was fake news apparently, but I did take a look at Juan Soto's rookie season, and his batted profile was actually similar to Vlad's this year, and he improved it a lot in his second year.

 

I think Vlad's hr/fly ball is only 12% which is pretty low, I think. I distinctly remember 5 balls missing by less than a foot, and becoming 2 outs, and 3 singles. 2 of the singles weren't his fault... they were hit at about 118 mph off the left field wall... the third was off the center field wall, and it was his fault... he just joggged thinking it was gone.

 

hmmm.. he did get a bonus homerun off some guys glove in Chicago... so he had a bit of luck with one of his flyballs.

 

Anyway I think if his hr/fly ball normalizes he gets better even if nothing else changes. Hopefully everything else trends in the right direction though.

[Olerud363]

Here is what I'd like to see next year...

 

1. March Vladimir shows up at legit 240 pounds. (not a fake 240 pounds where he's actually 260).

2. Vladimir has a healthy spring training.

3. Late March - Vladimir hit's a titanic pop up first at bat... at least it's not a ground ball.

4. Late March - Vladimir hit's 437 foot home run into center field flight deck with exit velocity of 115

 

note this doesn't prove anything yet... we know he can do this once and a while

 

5. Early April - Vladimir hit's 369 foot home run down left field line with exit velocity of 95 mph

 

this is a very important mile stone... he doesn't hit many home runs like this... and he needs them to go along with 115 mph 450ers

 

6. Early April - Vladimir hit's 380 foot home run just over left center field fence with exit velocity of 97 mph

 

another important mile stone. Showing he can regurlarly hit home runs with out getting all of it.

 

7. Mid April - Vladimir hit-s 420 foot home run into left field second deck, 107 mph exit velocity

 

actually important too... belive it or not he's never hit a homerun in the left field second deck at rogers centered... pulling fly balls... good stuff.

 

8. Late April - Vladimir hit's 384 foot home run to right field (opposite field) 94 mph exit velocity.

 

This would be outstanding. As far as I know he's never hit an oppo homer... Note guys like Teoscar Hernandez last night, who would hit 30 in a full season, need to loft some oppos to get there.

 

That's what I want to see next April!

[goldbug103]

Yes, who needs to work hard, take batting practice or watch video when eating nachos and tacos is so much funner. Another season like this one (and given his negative defensive value) and Fatty should be out of a job in the MLB.

[BTS]

After the most recent update he’s now the league’s worst baserunner at -6.6 runs. Actually pretty impressive for a 20-year old.

[Barkerfan23]

We need to sign vlad jr Jr

[Olerud363]

After the most recent update he’s now the league’s worst baserunner at -6.6 runs. Actually pretty impressive for a 20-year old.

 

He's the 20th worse defensive player but the other guys are all basicly his peer group... I feel like some of the baserunning is just due to a weird combination of recklessness and laziness weidly, which may just go under judgement... ie he's not naturally lazy, sometimes he hustles like hell on a single, recklessly tries to stretch into a double and is out... other times he doesn't hustle on a grounder, or what he though was a homer (only once that I remember).

[Carlos Danger]

[Olerud363]

After the most recent update he’s now the league’s worst baserunner at -6.6 runs. Actually pretty impressive for a 20-year old.

 

None of it matters too much... We all expected this... I'm not sure it's any better or worse than his peer group, Alonso and Alvarez are in the same boat.

 

What is different between Vlad and his peer group is hitting.

 

If he gets down to 240, plays defense to the best of his capabilities, and stops making mistakes on the basepaths it might worth another WAR... in fact the mistake in fangraphs showed us what a defensively neutral Vlad would look like, 1.4 WAR instead of 0.4.

 

If he hits like his minor league numbers projected it's worth 5 WAR or so... So getting in shape is really more so for keeping him on the field, and possibly quickening his bat, helping his balance and mechanics so he can hit like he should...

[DigitalRock]

It's pretty unbelievable when you look at the stats...

 

Every single player, that played significant time this year, has a better home rate then Vlad. Sogard does, Jansen does, McKinney does, Fisher does, Galvis does, Vlad is 15th on the team in home runs per plate appearnce. 15th!

 

Vlad had a disappointing rookie year...let's not panic unless he struggles next year as well.