Offseason Roster Thread 2019-2020

[BTS]

Who the hell is Jose Trevino?

[saskjayfan]

Who the hell is Jose Trevino?

 

Lee's grandson?

[glory]

Yeah fans have no patience, we should just be thankful that it looks like we’ll avoid a full scale tear down with years and years of rebuilding from nothing like Miami or Baltimore fans have to endure.

 

If the majority of the core continues to develop we’ll be in a great position as early as next year. If the majority of the core fails then we wouldn’t be making the playoffs anytime soon even if we had massively overpaid to get the likes of Wheeler and Ryu to come here.

 

Yeah now that they struck out in free agency, this season should be used primarily to develop existing talent, integrate new talent from the minors (Pearson, Kay, etc), and find a way to add players to the core either via trades or player development. You can’t force contention. Just have to keep adding as much talent as is available and hope the young players develop. Giles is the last remaining vet that they haven’t moved yet so they have to get a good package for him as well.

[Bobthe4th]

Yeah now that they struck out in free agency, this season should be used primarily to develop existing talent, integrate new talent from the minors (Pearson, Kay, etc), and find a way to add players to the core either via trades or player development. You can’t force contention. Just have to keep adding as much talent as is available and hope the young players develop. Giles is the last remaining vet that they haven’t moved yet so they have to get a good package for him as well.

 

The Giles trade is so important. Don't f*** it up Atkins!

[Jimcanuck]

Giles would fetch more after he shows a healthy arm in spring training / when the season starts. Expect every team interested in Giles has concerns about his arm health.

[saskjayfan]

Giles would fetch more after he shows a healthy arm in spring training / when the season starts. Expect every team interested in Giles has concerns about his arm health.

 

Giles finished the season. He's pitched north of 50 innings each of the last 5 years. I don't think his health is that big of a concern. We should wait till the deadline because if our young core does play well we should be entertaining an extension. We've all heard how difficult it is to attract players. If Giles likes it here and is open to an extension, why would we trade a quality closer if he will sign an extension.

[Laika]

Giles finished the season. He's pitched north of 50 innings each of the last 5 years. I don't think his health is that big of a concern. We should wait till the deadline because if our young core does play well we should be entertaining an extension. We've all heard how difficult it is to attract players. If Giles likes it here and is open to an extension, why would we trade a quality closer if he will sign an extension.

 

One of the biggest predictors of catastrophic elbow injury is elbow inflammation (and similar things like forearm strains, etc.) Giles battled elbow inflammation multiple times in 2019. The health is a concern to teams. He'll make nearly $10M and has only one year of control. For an elite closer that you can count on there is surplus value above that, but for a question mark reliever there really isn't. See the Blake Treinen deal and what Betances is looking for. Giles has value above those two but how much more value is pretty subjective. The right approach is Jim's - if Giles can make it through a couple of months without any flare-ups then Toronto can get that sweet, sweet elite-close-at-the-deadline trade value.

 

I'm not sure that an extension is a greaaaat idea but it might be. Depends on the trade market and the extension details! I doubt Toronto will want to sink any of their coveted "payroll flexibility" into a long-term closer in 2020 though.

[Brownie19]

Giles finished the season. He's pitched north of 50 innings each of the last 5 years. I don't think his health is that big of a concern. We should wait till the deadline because if our young core does play well we should be entertaining an extension. We've all heard how difficult it is to attract players. If Giles likes it here and is open to an extension, why would we trade a quality closer if he will sign an extension.

 

Man - you think way too much. You don't have any idea whether his elbow is a concern to teams, you don't have any idea how feasible it actually is for the Jays to sign free agents. Stop pretending like you know stuff.

[Maico450]

At the 2019 trade deadline, Giles injury may have been a case of him NOT wanting to get traded. He may be 100% healthy. Who knows?

[Laika]

At the 2019 trade deadline, Giles injury may have been a case of him NOT wanting to get traded. He may be 100% healthy. Who knows?

 

#Elbowgate

[glory]

At the 2019 trade deadline, Giles injury may have been a case of him NOT wanting to get traded. He may be 100% healthy. Who knows?

 

Giles was actually traded to the Yankees at the deadline but Cashman backed out at the last minute.

 

The Yankees and Blue Jays almost pulled off a significant, intra-division deal involving closer Ken Giles at this year’s trade deadline, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (subscription link). Three prospects would’ve headed to Toronto had the deal gone through, though their particular identities aren’t known.

 

This note is largely of historical import, though it’s interesting nevertheless. The Yankees were linked to Giles on deadline day, with Joel Sherman of the New York Post tweeting that “deep” talks had taken place. Still, it wasn’t clear at the time just how far down the line the teams went. Rosenthal says the Jays actually informed other teams they expected a deal to go through, which made it impossible to pivot back and craft another agreement.

 

It’s still not entirely clear why talks collapsed at the last minute. No doubt health questions were a major factor, as he was dealing with elbow problems heading into the deadline. But the health records had already been exchanged and accounted for, Rosenthal notes.

 

With only a year of control left it's going to be hard to extract great value, but I don't see them taking another chance of waiting until the deadline and risking him getting hurt again.

[Bobthe4th]

Giles finished the season. He's pitched north of 50 innings each of the last 5 years. I don't think his health is that big of a concern. We should wait till the deadline because if our young core does play well we should be entertaining an extension. We've all heard how difficult it is to attract players. If Giles likes it here and is open to an extension, why would we trade a quality closer if he will sign an extension.

 

We don't need an elite closer this season and there's a good chance Giles won't be elite anymore in a few years. Giles trade value is as an elite reliever with one year of control for all in teams looking to compete this year.

 

Saying that, if Atkins holds on to Giles until the deadline, he gets injured and we get nothing, then that would be a disaster. We should be aggressively shopping him until a reasonable offer is made.

[saskjayfan]

We don't need an elite closer this season and there's a good chance Giles won't be elite anymore in a few years. Giles trade value is as an elite reliever with one year of control for all in teams looking to compete this year.

 

Saying that, if Atkins holds on to Giles until the deadline, he gets injured and we get nothing, then that would be a disaster. We should be aggressively shopping him until a reasonable offer is made.

 

Giles certainly isn't untouchable if the trade value is there, but if it isn't you think he's going to fall off a cliff in 2021 or 2022? I don't think his age 30 and 31 or 32 seasons can't be good. Yates was pretty good at 31 and 32. If you want to go out and get a free agent in 2021 a 3 year 39 mil extension makes a lot of sense. Who in their right mind is going to sign with the Jays next off season if they have zero pitching. Yes relievers are volatile and there is risk there. At some point you're going to have to stick your neck out on the line on a few players.

[Jimcanuck]

Giles certainly isn't untouchable if the trade value is there, but if it isn't you think he's going to fall off a cliff in 2021 or 2022? I don't think his age 30 and 31 or 32 seasons can't be good. Yates was pretty good at 31 and 32. If you want to go out and get a free agent in 2021 a 3 year 39 mil extension makes a lot of sense. Who in their right mind is going to sign with the Jays next off season if they have zero pitching. Yes relievers are volatile and there is risk there. At some point you're going to have to stick your neck out on the line on a few players.

 

I just looked up your 2016 posts advocating signing Bautista to a 5 year deal, after he came out with his 7 year 150 million demand.

[BTS]

Giles certainly isn't untouchable if the trade value is there, but if it isn't you think he's going to fall off a cliff in 2021 or 2022? I don't think his age 30 and 31 or 32 seasons can't be good. Yates was pretty good at 31 and 32. If you want to go out and get a free agent in 2021 a 3 year 39 mil extension makes a lot of sense. Who in their right mind is going to sign with the Jays next off season if they have zero pitching. Yes relievers are volatile and there is risk there. At some point you're going to have to stick your neck out on the line on a few players.

 

Hard pass on Giles on a 3/39 contract. Not only are you absorbing financial risk on a player with some pretty scary warning signs about his health, but there's an opportunity cost associated with not trading him.

[Amok]

Giles certainly isn't untouchable if the trade value is there, but if it isn't you think he's going to fall off a cliff in 2021 or 2022? I don't think his age 30 and 31 or 32 seasons can't be good. Yates was pretty good at 31 and 32. If you want to go out and get a free agent in 2021 a 3 year 39 mil extension makes a lot of sense. Who in their right mind is going to sign with the Jays next off season if they have zero pitching. Yes relievers are volatile and there is risk there. At some point you're going to have to stick your neck out on the line on a few players.

 

Giles had an amazing season last year but his WAR was just 1.8. A closer is important but more important to a winning team, the Jays have more needs right now. I much more interest in fixing our 1B or rotation issues long-term than the closer role on a mid 70 win team.

 

Fansgraph projects the Jays lineup to be about average next year. ZIP projects this team to win about 75 games before the off-season. If the Rangers, Reds and Whitesox can sign guys in that range then so can the Jays. Also if a few things go right then the Jays are not far off from .500.

[Bobthe4th]

Giles certainly isn't untouchable if the trade value is there, but if it isn't you think he's going to fall off a cliff in 2021 or 2022? I don't think his age 30 and 31 or 32 seasons can't be good. Yates was pretty good at 31 and 32. If you want to go out and get a free agent in 2021 a 3 year 39 mil extension makes a lot of sense. Who in their right mind is going to sign with the Jays next off season if they have zero pitching. Yes relievers are volatile and there is risk there. At some point you're going to have to stick your neck out on the line on a few players.

 

Kirby Yates is the perfect example of why relievers are so volatile - up until 2 years ago he had a negative career WAR.

 

Even if Giles avoids injury (which would be a risk even if he didn't have elbow issues last year) there's still a good chance he stops being elite relatively soon. The list of elite relievers who decline in their early 30's is extensive.

 

IMO Giles is not the player you take a risk on, especially when he's the last valuable veteran trade asset left.

[Maico450]

Giles had an amazing season last year but his WAR was just 1.8. A closer is important but more important to a winning team, the Jays have more needs right now. I much more interest in fixing our 1B or rotation issues long-term than the closer role on a mid 70 win team.

 

Fansgraph projects the Jays lineup to be about average next year. ZIP projects this team to win about 75 games before the off-season. If the Rangers, Reds and Whitesox can sign guys in that range then so can the Jays. Also if a few things go right then the Jays are not far off from .500.

 

I shudder the thought of NOT having a good closer. It is demoralizing for a team to lose in the 9th, because the reliever could not close the game out.

Now it would probably be prudent to trade Giles for a huge prospect, and sign a couple of veteran relievers with closing experience. Hudson for example.

But we need somebody who can hold the lead in the 9th.

[The Iceman]

Trade Giles and sign Greg Holland to close this year. Once we fall out of the race trade him to a contender.

[Laika]

Trade Giles and sign Greg Holland to close this year. Once we fall out of the race trade him to a contender.

 

Ah yes, the old "sign a replacement level 34 year old closer and then trade him to a contender" strategy.

[glory]

Trade Giles and sign Greg Holland to close this year. Once we fall out of the race trade him to a contender.

 

Trade Giles and sign Betances to close seems more logical.

[wamco]

I thought this exact thing today

[saskjayfan]

I just looked up your 2016 posts advocating signing Bautista to a 5 year deal, after he came out with his 7 year 150 million demand.

 

I'm sure I was advocating an extension. There was only speculation in the media as to the term and dollars. Bautista denied the 150 million dollar ask. I certainly wasn't advocating a 7 year term. I'm sure I would have been on a 3 or 4 year term for Bautista and it would have been a bad decision. If you go further back in the posts on the old board, I also indicated strongly the day Bautista signed his previous deal that it was a fantastic contract and 90% on here thought it was a terrible signing. How did that 5 for 64 with a team option work out?

 

You would have posted something if you actually found it, and if you spent the time trying to find posts from 3 years ago, you need to get a life.

[saskjayfan]

Hard pass on Giles on a 3/39 contract. Not only are you absorbing financial risk on a player with some pretty scary warning signs about his health, but there's an opportunity cost associated with not trading him.

 

If he comes with such health risk, who's going to give anything of value then?

[saskjayfan]

Giles had an amazing season last year but his WAR was just 1.8. A closer is important but more important to a winning team, the Jays have more needs right now. I much more interest in fixing our 1B or rotation issues long-term than the closer role on a mid 70 win team.

 

Fansgraph projects the Jays lineup to be about average next year. ZIP projects this team to win about 75 games before the off-season. If the Rangers, Reds and Whitesox can sign guys in that range then so can the Jays. Also if a few things go right then the Jays are not far off from .500.

 

The Ranger signed Gibson and Lyles. Those are hardly difference makers. The Reds signed Moustakas for a deal much higher than projected. Wheeler turned down the Whitesox despite being offered more money.

 

Which starter are the Jays going to sign next year? I'm guessing no one. The plan is to wait things out until 2022 and if our pitching prospects turn out we compete in 2022. If they don't we trade off the core for our next rebuild. It will be an incredibly exciting time. Just think of the prospects we will get for Vlad and Bo.

[saskjayfan]

Trade Giles and sign Betances to close seems more logical.

 

Betances missed almost the entire year with shoulder problems and then he partially tore his achilles. You guys are scared shitless of Giles health issues, but you have no worries about Betances? The guy might not even pitch in 2020.

[Deadpool]

Betances missed almost the entire year with shoulder problems and then he partially tore his achilles. You guys are scared shitless of Giles health issues, but you have no worries about Betances? The guy might not even pitch in 2020.

 

Signing Betances is about hopefully having someone good that we can flip at the deadline for parts, the theory being that we get more if we trade Giles now and Betances at the deadline than we would just trading Giles at the deadline. You obviously don't sign him if the medicals look bad.

[glory]

Betances missed almost the entire year with shoulder problems and then he partially tore his achilles. You guys are scared shitless of Giles health issues, but you have no worries about Betances? The guy might not even pitch in 2020.

 

If he can’t pitch in 2020 then don’t sign him. They’ll have to review his medicals and obviously he’ll have to pass a physical. The intention would be to sign him and hope he pitches well/ stays healthy to flip at the deadline. If you get something for Giles now and then something for Betances at the deadline, then hopefully at least one of those pieces can potentially become a core piece. The only leverage the Jays would have to sign someone like him would be the closer role where he can pile up saves and make himself more marketable next winter.

[Spanky99]

Signing Betances is about hopefully having someone good that we can flip at the deadline for parts, the theory being that we get more if we trade Giles now and Betances at the deadline than we would just trading Giles at the deadline. You obviously don't sign him if the medicals look bad.

 

This really shouldn't need to be explained, lol.

[P2F]

The Blue Jays made a big push to land Tanner Roark, as the right-hander told reporters (including Kaitlyn McGrath of The Athletic) that Toronto was the first team to get in contact with his representatives as free agency opened. “They knew what they wanted, and they wanted me and it’s exciting to have someone want you like that,” Roark said. Pitching coach Pete Walker also told McGrath that he and Roark “just seemed to hit it off” during a 25-minute phone call. Roark ended up inking a two-year, $24MM deal with the Jays, and is looking forward to being a veteran leader within Toronto’s young clubhouse.

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/12/al-east-notes-panik-tsutsugo-roark-abad-holmes.html