Jays Midyear Review

[Terminator]

After 81 games we are 29-52. Been pretty disastrous so far but a few things of late are giving us some reason for optimism.

 

Things I Like:

-Biggio's plate discipline looks elite. This raises his ceiling quite a bit IMO.

-Gurriel is mashing and he looks solid in LF. He's under control for a while so if he can check off a corner OF spot for us for the 2-3 years that could be a big help during this rebuild.

-Was generally going to stick to the MLB team but Bichette is mashing as well. Him, Vlad Jr, Biggio and Gurriel could form an outstanding cost-controlled core who form the 1-4 spots in our lineup for years to come. It's kind of amazing at how much potential that group has.

-Our two biggest trade chips are pitching very well, setting us up for solid returns if things go right.

 

Things I Don't Like:

-Assuming Stroman and Giles are dealt, do we have ANY average or better pitchers penciled in to next year's roster? Shoemaker can't be counted on and I suppose Thornton looks like he could stick as a back of the rotation type and Pearson isn't too far away but the pitching looks atrocious both at the big league and upper minor league levels. We need about 4 viable starters, two of which need to be good and about 4 solid relievers to fill out a decent pitching staff. Yikes.

-Jansen looks like s***. His statcast profile is better than his stat line but after 200 plate appearances he's really struggling. I'm still hopeful he gets it going but I am slightly worried.

-Other than Gurriel, most of the post-hype sleepers that Atkins has given significant playing time too have been really bad. Teoscar, Drury, McKinney, Tellez, etc. all look like they should be optioned or non-tendered at the end of the year. This goes for a lot of the relievers too. The one diamond in the rough we did find is Eric Sogard who will be a 33 year old entering free agency anyway.

-Grichuk is playing like s*** and undeserving of his extension. He's generally a 2nd half guy so hopefully he goes on a tear soon.

 

I'll be interested to read everyone's thoughts about everything so far and where we are headed. Cheers.

 

PS things i really dislike - tbad's take on my post

[Spanky__99]

Tadaaa...

[Jimcanuck]

Things I like:

 

Vlad, Biggio, Bichette, Gurriel, Jansen

High payroll flexibility

Strong farm system

 

Most of everything else - don't care

[Terminator]

I did one of these after April and it seemed pretty popular. Not a ton has really changed since then tbh but since we've hit the midway point I thought it was worth another thread.

[connorp]

Trouble.

 

What are you even babbling about?

[BlueRocky]

Second half will be interesting, both for the big club and farm system. A bunch of IL guys coming back including Borucki & Merryweather both possible rotation pieces next year.

 

The hitting will get better. Vlad, Bichette, Biggio, Gurriel is a fine core moving forward. At least one of the holes in OF seem to be covered for now. There’s also a slew of catching prospects moving up if Jansen doesn’t work out.

 

Rotation is a real question mark

[glory]

I agree with all of that. I think Gurriel's emergence has been the thing I've liked the most. He's not this good obviously, but even if he's league average or better with the bat and glove, that's a capable starting OF on this team. If he's better than that, then great. I think Jansen will get better. He's already good with the glove and I feel his bat will eventually turn it around. I really like the Bichette-Biggio-Vlad-Gurriel-Jansen group. It would be nice to add a CF in there who can join them. Haven't completely ruled out Alford but he's getting closer to being an afterthought despite his recent hot streak. He really needs to be up and playing everyday instead of Teoscar.

 

The bad was mentioned in the OP. SP depth sucks. Haven't gotten any contribution yet from AAA starters except Thornton. All the fringy/undervalued pick ups by Atkins, or fringy inherited prospects, have flopped (Drury, McKinney, Teoscar, Brito, Tellez, etc). Gurriel turning into something has at least taken some of the sting away.

 

The Grichuk extension was unnecessary, although his performance this season really doesn't matter all that much. But 2020 and beyond he needs to be effective. I would go into this deeper, but Brownie is already triggered and likely in tears just by reading Grichuk's name mentioned, so I'll expand another time.

 

Atkins has been a mixed bag so far, but like I said before, the trade deadline will either further prove he's not the guy for this role, or it could be his redemption. He needs to hit a grand slam at the deadline. Right now I really just trust the team's drafting and international signings. That could change with a good deadline haul.

[Terminator]

He needs to hit a grand slam at the deadline.

 

He's more or less been pretty passive throughout his entire tenure so far. This includes the trade deadlines and in free agency. Now that the team has bottomed out on his watch he's in a more precarious position. I agree I think this deadline is really important for him.

[tbad]

You're list of things you don't like is far too small for your post to be taken seriously.

[Terminator]

You're list of things you don't like is far too small for your post to be taken seriously.

 

It's not a comprehensive list. Feel free to add.

[Krylian]

The Good:

Vladdy, Biggio, Gurriel Jr, Stroman, Giles, Bichette, Pearson, Fatty Kirk, Groshans (pre-injury), Winckowski

 

The Bad:

The majority of the ML roster

 

The Disappointing:

Kevin Smith, Pardinho (injury), Groshans (injury), Patrick Murphy's delivery, Borucki (injury), Sanchez's inability to create trade value for himself, Jansen at the plate, Chavez Young, SRF

[BlueRocky]

It's not a comprehensive list. Feel free to add.

 

Who would you sign in the offseason?

[Jonn]

I know the Starting Rotation is going to be an absolute dumpster fire but the Jays can't strikeout on the Stroman deal. The Blue Jays have failed miserably getting value back for players they traded. Sure maybe keeping Stroman long term makes sense but its not like it solves your ultimate problem. It would be Stroman and nothing instead of just nothing. The Jays need to hit a homerun on that return. The rebuild and how long it will take is relying on the value they can get back for Stroman and Giles.

 

This team is not going to be good again next year. I feel most people have accepted that. They might be bringing in 3 Shoemaker types in the off-season to make it work.

[Pendleton]

I've been most disappointed in our overall ability to prevent runs, and score them.

[gruber92]

''They might be bringing in 3 Shoemaker types in the off-season to make it work.''

 

Or three 33 year old lefty knuckleballers currently pitching in Korea.

[Terminator]

Who would you sign in the offseason?

 

We will likely need bats at 1B, CF and DH. Mike Moustaskas is criminally underpaid every offseason. I'd give him a 3 year deal and have him primarily play 1B but would also give him time at 3B and 2B if the need came up. The Jays love resting players too so having a guy like that to rotate around the diamond to allow Vlad and Biggio to DH once in a while wouldn't be a bad idea.

[Solaxys]

I have a question and this might be silly but I never delved too much into the analytics of it all - but why are certain players, despite doing badly, assumed to do really well down the road while players that are performing well assumed to return to below league average?

I am only asking this because the community here strongly backs Jansen but not Gurriel Jr., in that we firmly expect Jansen to bounce back but have doubts as to whether Gurriel can keep a .290+ BA/.900+ OPS as a LF, as a regular.

Why is that? Is it just metrics from minors? Is there no room for improvement beyond what they are deemed to be by scouts or projections by fangraphs/BA/steamer/w.e?

 

 

Similarly, why is it that players like Luke Maile can go on a tear (mid last year?) but all of a sudden completely go ice cold for 1.5 yrs? Is that just luck? Why does someone's approach and attitude towards pitches change so drastically that they go from .300 to .150-.200? Are coaches comparing the two different styles and trying to leverage the player back to how they were, and if they are, why isn't it working or why isn't there growth?

 

I am just so confused, amazed almost, at why there isn't a growth in character and approach of a lot of these players (aside from our core, no one is even coming remotely close to being remarkable) - like teoscar ... is someone working with him to improve his mechanics? If so, why is he not improving in any shape or manner? Are we simply committing to the assumption that he is a league below average player and will always be - why is that, why simply write him off "FIND A REPLACEMENT!"? Why is baseball, or at least Blue Jays baseball, one of the only sports where improvement is so rare across games, seasons, careers even and the answer to a better team is always find a better player?

 

P.S. I am not asking about the "X factor" - there will be greats like Trout and probably (hopefully) Vlad; I am just asking of simple improvements and hard work and ethics - improving your BA (I know this is a derpy metric, but its simple to understand for people like me) by say .10 every month until you get to something reasonable like .270.

 

 

Anyway, sorry for the whole shenanigan - every time I watch the Jays (and I watch them almost every day, lose or win, rain or shine), I keep wondering these things.

[Spanky__99]

What are you even babbling about?

 

You don't see it as trouble?

[BlueRocky]

We will likely need bats at 1B, CF and DH. Mike Moustaskas is criminally underpaid every offseason. I'd give him a 3 year deal and have him primarily play 1B but would also give him time at 3B and 2B if the need came up. The Jays love resting players too so having a guy like that to rotate around the diamond to allow Vlad and Biggio to DH once in a while wouldn't be a bad idea.

 

Interesting. So I guess you’re not extending Smoak? Not high on Tellez?

What about the rotation?

[BlueRocky]

I have a question and this might be silly but I never delved too much into the analytics of it all - but why are certain players, despite doing badly, assumed to do really well down the road while players that are performing well assumed to return to below league average?

I am only asking this because the community here strongly backs Jansen but not Gurriel Jr., in that we firmly expect Jansen to bounce back but have doubts as to whether Gurriel can keep a .290+ BA/.900+ OPS as a LF, as a regular.

Why is that? Is it just metrics from minors? Is there no room for improvement beyond what they are deemed to be by scouts or projections by fangraphs/BA/steamer/w.e?

I’m probably the wrong guy to answer this since I’m higher on LGJ than most.

 

People think Jansen has a lot of room to bounce back because of several reasons..

His peripherals in the minors were outstanding, he was a legit top 100 prospect and had a strong bat with good OBP numbers. That hasn’t shown up whatsoever so he’s likely still adapting to MLB. Even if he’s not a star, his offensive numbers should be closer to average and defense has been solid.

 

You don’t really give up on a guy like that after 3 months. If he wasn’t a catcher I would be more worried, but generally going from triple-A to everyday catcher is a huge jump so he gets some leash. They could’ve eased him in as backup catcher first instead of handing him the keys right away but... Russell Martin got traded and they decided otherwise.

 

LGJ is likely to regress because his current numbers are just insane. 150 wRC+ is MVP level so I doubt he can keep this up. If he can hover around 120-130 wRC+ at LF this is already a home run signing for Ross Atkins.

 

The main reason why guys are skeptical about LGJ is because his low walk rates and high strikeout rates. There’s only a handful of guys in baseball that can put up .900 OPS with those types of K/BB profiles. You can look at the article on the RadioScouts blog for examples.

 

His ability to hit breaking balls right now is completely off the charts and probably not sustainable, regression is likely to happen but as long as some of this production isn’t a complete fluke he should be alright.

Edited June 27, 2019 by BlueRocky

[TheHurl]

You're list of things you don't like is far too small for your post to be taken seriously.

 

I helped him out with that

[TheHurl]

Bless you Blue you are a patient man

[saskjayfan]

I know the Starting Rotation is going to be an absolute dumpster fire but the Jays can't strikeout on the Stroman deal. The Blue Jays have failed miserably getting value back for players they traded. Sure maybe keeping Stroman long term makes sense but its not like it solves your ultimate problem. It would be Stroman and nothing instead of just nothing. The Jays need to hit a homerun on that return. The rebuild and how long it will take is relying on the value they can get back for Stroman and Giles.

 

This team is not going to be good again next year. I feel most people have accepted that. They might be bringing in 3 Shoemaker types in the off-season to make it work.

 

3 shoemaker deals makes me wanna puke. This team has a s*** ton of money. It has an incredibly tough time attracting free agents. The Stroman extension is absolutely the way to go.

[wk680]

3 shoemaker deals makes me wanna puke. This team has a s*** ton of money. It has an incredibly tough time attracting free agents. The Stroman extension is absolutely the way to go.

 

Totally agree but the question is how much is he worth. I said 5 yr /$80M in the thread that addressed this a while back. But as he continues to go out and perform well, his stock continues to rise. Whether that can be appropriately leveraged in a July trade deal remains to be seen.

[saskjayfan]

Totally agree but the question is how much is he worth. I said 5 yr /$80M in the thread that addressed this a while back. But as he continues to go out and perform well, his stock continues to rise. Whether that can be appropriately leveraged in a July trade deal remains to be seen.

 

I think there's a rift between stroman and management. Stro can't keep his mouth shut, so I'm guessing we'll find out via twitter what (if any) offer was made to him about 8 minutes after he's traded.

[Bobthe4th]

We can cobble together a rotation next year: return from Giles/Stroman, a free agent, Merryweather, Thornton, Borucki, Shoemaker, Pearson by September, Zeuch/Diaz/Perez. There's a wide range of outcomes from a rotation like that, it could end up being great if everything went right. But if it isn't then it's not the end of the world as long as we get at least a few serviceable starters out of it. We can then add elite starters when we are ready to compete again.

 

Relievers are entirely unpredictable anyway, it's pointless trying to predict what the bullpen will look like in 2 years.

 

Jansen only needs to be OK with the bat (rather than atrocious) to be a quality starting catcher. He should be given all of this and next season to turn it around.

 

Of the disappointments, I'd give Tellez and Teoscar more time to see if they can build on their obvious power, Drury can be shot into the sun for all I care, McKinney/Urena/Davis etc are just 40 man depth.

 

Alford needs to be up to audition for the CF role. Pompey too if he ever comes back.

 

Grichuk's extension was not a "good" decision but it's not really a bad one either as he's easily movable if he doesn't improve. And if he's just the 2 War outfielder he usually is, then no it wasn't worth locking him up but he's still a net positive.

 

 

Overall this is a rebuilding year, wins are basically irrelevant. What would make it a disappointing year is failure for more than a handful of young players to develop, and bad trades returns at the deadline. A good year would be things like Gurriel and Biggio continuing to play well, Jansen and Guerrero to go on hot streaks, a trade haul at the deadline, prospects tearing up the minors.

 

Right now, I'd give us a C- grade. IMO the biggest thing that's going to effect the end of season grade is what happens at the trade deadline. If we manage to maximise the Stroman and Giles returns, and add to that with trading people like Smoak and Galvis then we could be in a really nice situation.

[BTS]

The players who's performance at the MLB level actually seems to matter to us in the long-term, for better or worse:

 

Good

Gurriel - I didn't expect to be happy with him at the hallway point, but he's grading out as about an average defender in LF, and he's been an above-average hitter through almost 500 MLB PA. It might actually be a 2-3 win OF skill set.

 

Biggio - The skill set seems to be transferring well to the majors so far. Seems likely to be a good contributor who can play a bunch of different positions.

 

Thornton - He's a rookie who's on track to contribute about 2 wins over 30+ starts and 170 innings, and he's controllable for 5 more seasons. That's a legit asset, and one rotation spot we don't have to worry about going forward, even if the current Thornton is ideally only the 5th-best starter on a good team.

 

Stroman - He's done Stroman things and stayed healthy, so he's positioned himself as either a valuable trade chip, or a candidate for a long-term extension.

 

Giles - Same as Stroman.

 

Bad

Jansen - I'm not as down on him as a lot of other seem to be, because the defense has been good, and he's not going to keep hitting this poorly. So even with the disastrous offense, he looks like a MLB catcher going forward. Maybe this year means we need to find more of a platoon partner next year than a pure backup like Maile.

 

Vladdy - Not even a bit concerned about him in the long-term, but his 2019 has been mostly disappointing. We all thought he'd hit the ground running like Soto and Acuna, and that hasn't happened yet.

 

Grichuk - He's been awful. Probably the biggest disappointment this season given the 50M investment that was made in him.

 

Teoscar - Most of us thought he was bad coming into the season, and he's been bad. With him turning 27 next season, it's looking like long odds for him to turn into a player.

 

Tellez - He's a pure DH who hasn't shown that he can hit. This isn't a player teams keep around in the long term.

 

Drury - Sucks.

 

McKinney - He's 25 in August and hasn't displayed a single useful MLB tool.

 

Sanchez - Get this guy off my baseball team immediately.

[Laika]

The offensive core appears to be coming together at an accelerated pace. That's probably the best thing about this year so far.

 

Yeah - Drury, Tellez, McKinney, Teoscar all suck but most of those players were expected to suck and I'm not sure if any of us really thought they'd be part of the next really good Blue Jays offense.

 

I did not expect Biggio to be this advanced at the plate. I did not expect Gurriel to be this good at hitting. Bo is now mashing down in AAA and appears to be ready.

 

Between those three and Vlad Toronto might have / probably has four hitters who can hit in the top 6 positions on a good offense, and they are under control for a long time. Add in Jansen and Grichuk, who are not playing well but still project reasonably well, and 2/3 of the long term offense seems to already be in place.

 

Biggio - LF/2B

Bo - SS

Vlad - 3B/DH

Gurriel - RF/LF

Grichuk - RF

Jansen - C

 

Needed - probably a 3B, 1B, and CF. Biggio and Gurriel and Vlad all have defensive position questions though.

[Brownie19]

Jansen's WAR is still higher than Vlady's in a similar number of games and PA's.

 

That's either encouraging as it means his defense has been great and thus when the bat comes around, he'll be a solid starting catcher.

 

Or it's really sad how poorly Vlady's first couple months in the majors have gone.

[Terminator]

Interesting. So I guess you’re not extending Smoak? Not high on Tellez?

What about the rotation?

 

Not high on Tellez. I'd give him the rest of the year to figure things out but next year he's a depth guy in AAA to me.

 

Moose is just someone who is constantly providing surplus value. A 3 year deal for him is close to a lock to provide surplus to me so why not take advantage. He's only 30 and he can hit and play the field. I'd be open to extending Smoak for peanuts if he wants though. Regardless of whether we get Smoak or Moose or whoever I also think we need another CJ Cron type pickup next year to DH as well.

 

As for the rotation we need a shitload of help. It's harder for me to say who we should get because it seems like injuries play a bigger factor with them and I don't have much clue on who is going to get hurt or not. BTS mentioned Gibson and he looks pretty good to me. I think a substantial signing like him to go along with a couple of third tier signings is necessary. If we try to paper over the rotation with the Buccholz's and the Richard's of the league it's going to be another long season.