MLB 2020 Draft

[BlueRocky]

All teams have their draft boards lined up now, and they’re making calls around to get a feel of the players asking prices and who’d be a possible under-slot. Money is really at a premium in this draft as there’s tons of talent in the second round, prep guys falling hard and commit to college or juco unless they get their target bonuses. Even some draft eligible sophomores and juniors can play that leverage card, it helps a lot when teams have wiggle room. Both the Orioles and KC have multiple selections in the 30-40s and they’ll go for whoever falls into the second round.

 

The mocks and rumors are saying the Blue Jays have Veen > Gonzo for position player and Meyer > Hancock for pitcher.

 

I don’t buy it. I feel like the Max Meyer fiasco is smokescreen to create leverage for bonus negotiations. How often has this management been this transparent about their intentions? They’re the type to hold onto any competitive advantage they can get. “The Blue Jays loves Max Meyer” getting leaked everywhere a week before the draft, kinda smells fishy to me.

 

Yes they’re analytically minded, so I can see them putting value in high velo with spin-rate guys like Meyer. But at the same time, they’ve trended towards large human beings with projectable upside like Kloff (6-5), Kendall (6-6), Manoah (6-6), Pearson (6-6). Max Meyer is 6-1 at best and doesn’t follow this trend, his stuff is also more “now” than projectable.

 

But the key is they highly value makeup. Without all the fancy shenanigans associated with what that means, they evaluate players and choose a guy they really like despite what industry thinks. This is what happened with the Groshans/Kloff picks and we basically got two first round talents that year. They also really liked and drafted Alek Manoah despite hitters available (Baty, Caroll) and the draft was seen as a very weak pitching class.

 

The Jays being high on Zac Veen is probably true. They have an undying passion for athletic young bats with projectable plus power and advanced hit tools. It might’ve been a bit of a secret two months ago when insiders were really high on Veen from last summer’s showcase, and he was a tad underrated being ranked 7-11. But now the cat is out of the bag and there’s very loud demand for him from teams directly behind our pick. I mean the Pirates, Padres, and Rockies would be floored if Veen fell to them at this point.

 

I’m not entirely convinced the Jays will pass on Emerson Hancock over Max Meyer. I’m also not convinced Nick Gonzales is the third wheel here, the Jays might pass on both Veen and Hancock and take Gonzales.

 

Now, I don’t think they’ll get a choice between the three, at least one of them will be taken ahead of #5. It might ultimately come down to Emerson Hancock and Nick Gonzales, I think KC will take Zac Veen. As a rule of thumb, I’d lean position player and draft Gonzo. It’s difficult to pass on such an obvious impact bat. The Orioles could completely throw this scenario out the window if they under-slot Gonzales at #2, if they don’t love Austin Martin (wtf?) they might value the extra money for their #30 and #39 picks. It’s the Orioles, one simply does not rationalize them. I personally done more research on Emerson Hancock and love his makeup, and would not be upset either way.

Edited June 9, 2020 by BlueRocky

[metafour]

Meyer's two best pitches are better than Hancock's two best pitches.

 

I don't see what could possibly be "fishy" about any of this. They showed last year that they aren't afraid to take a "two-pitch" pitcher; I bet they believe just like with Manoah that Minnesota calling mainly fastball/slider with Meyer isn't indicative of his ability to throw a changeup.

 

It might all be a smokescreen, but I'm kinda confused as to some of the reasoning brought here to downplay Max Meyer. Is this the first time ever that a guy with two 70+ pitches, premium athleticism, and legitimate control would somehow be considered a "disappointing" draft pick lmao?

 

If they like Veen over Gonzales and Meyer over Hancock, it kinda sounds to me that they prefer upside with that pick as both of the players they "like" are on-paper higher upside players.

[BlueRocky]

It’s just my opinion and you’re free to disagree. I also never said Max Meyer would be a disappointing draft pick, but simply don’t take all the rumours at face value, especially right before a draft.

 

Meyer's two best pitches are better than Hancock's two best pitches.

I’m not arguing this point, Meyer has both a better fastball and slider. I don’t even think reliever risk is the issue. Hancock’s frame is much more desirable, his track record is more extensive as a starter, his control is better, and his four pitch mix is typical in what you look for when trying to project a top-of-the-rotation arm. I’m not saying Meyer will fail, but for the teams making the selection it’s a matter of preference.

 

There’s just so many pitchers taken high in drafts that never pan out, yet all of them had good stuff. It’s actually pretty alarming how often college pitchers fail in the top 10. I think teams that draft a pitcher this high need to be convicted in more than just individual tools, they evaluate the whole package and track record.

[Carlos Danger]

Why does CBS believe the only thing close to a lock is the Jays taking a college player? Basically, they are saying that even if Veen falls to us, we will not select him?

 

Where are they getting this?

[metafour]

I wasn't talking about you specifically, it was just a general statement as it seems like some people are kinda failing to see the logic as to how Meyer could EASILY be better than Hancock.

 

I don't think the fact that mocks are picking up "Meyer to Toronto" really implies smokescreen at all. Last year, Manoah to Toronto was consistently mocked as the pick right before the draft - and it was 100% accurate. Their interest in Warmoth (and even Pearson) was also very openly known predraft, and he was selected in the back third of the first round (not in the Top 5 where its much easier to connect players to teams).

 

I can see the logic in either player.

[Ray]

I definitely see the appeal of Max Meyer, but Hancock seems slightly more advanced and polished in terms of a finished product. I mean, if he had 4 great starts instead of alright ones to start the college season, there’s no way he would fall to us at #5. Seems like people are putting too much stock onto his slow start when he was literally the best pitcher in college baseball last season.

 

Veen > Hancock > Gonzales > Meyer imo.

[Slade]

I don't think it's any kind of smokescreen, in fact in the last three years the information available through mock drafts and rumors have been proven to be accurate. There's not that many of names being connected to us it's the same names over and over and we're hearing Nick Gonzalez less and less.

 

Do you really need to be projectable if you have 70+ grade stuff now? And Meyers body is athletic with more room to add strength and he has a solid delivery with minimal effort.

[glory]

Yeah I definitely remember Warmoth and Manoah heavily linked to the Jays before those drafts. I don't recall Groshans, but maybe he was and I missed it.

[Carlos Danger]

If Baltimore decides to go under slot, it could make the whole thing wack!! Let's hope!!

[metafour]

I mean, if he had 4 great starts instead of alright ones to start the college season, there’s no way he would fall to us at #5. Seems like people are putting too much stock onto his slow start when he was literally the best pitcher in college baseball last season.

 

Do you really think that MLB teams cooled on him because of 4 starts?

 

That isn't what happened. He has cooled because his pitching metrics aren't what is "in" right now according to pitching data. You can argue the legitimacy of that, but its something that would likely be the case regardless of what his ERA was in those 4 starts.

[THANOS]

Do you really think that MLB teams cooled on him because of 4 starts?

 

That isn't what happened. He has cooled because his pitching metrics aren't what is "in" right now according to pitching data. You can argue the legitimacy of that, but its something that would likely be the case regardless of what his ERA was in those 4 starts.

 

Yep. More analytical teams looking into spin-rate and finding that he's not that elite in that and throws a sinking fastball instead of a riser, which is against the trend. Meyer having elite spin rates and velo is what's raising his stock so much.

 

After watching a few interviews with him, he also seems just as obsessed with winning as Manoah was when we took him. There's also that fact he wants to learn and seems to have no clue about any of these pitching tools like rapsodo and the rest, so putting with people like Drive-line and letting him speak with Pearson could unlock a lot more in him.

[Slade]

There were also questions on why Hancock missed a few starts in 2019, McDaniel said that info would be available last week so depending on what that was he could be slipping. It could also just be about the analytics too, maybe makeup or interview impressions.

 

Emerson Hancock lags behind until his medicals come out, likely this week. That info would help allay fears about Hancock missing the end of 2019, skipping the summer and then coming out of the gate slowly in 2020 (more on him below).

[Daniel Labude]

I'm thinking Veen, Gonzales, or Meyer in that order.

[Spanky99]

If we pass on Nick Gonzales or Emerson Hancock for Max Meyer I will be momentarily unhappy

 

lol

[Spanky99]

Why does CBS believe the only thing close to a lock is the Jays taking a college player? Basically, they are saying that even if Veen falls to us, we will not select him?

 

Where are they getting this?

 

Their ass.

[Spanky99]

One more sleep... folks!

 

VEEN!!!

[G-Snarls]

Came out of hibernation to catch up on our options for the best draft pick we've had in a while. Hope they make the most of it.

[Brownie19]

Why would there be any need for a smokescreen in the MLB draft when you can't trade picks? That makes no sense.

[Boxcar]

I don't think it's any kind of smokescreen, in fact in the last three years the information available through mock drafts and rumors have been proven to be accurate. There's not that many of names being connected to us it's the same names over and over and we're hearing Nick Gonzalez less and less.

 

Do you really need to be projectable if you have 70+ grade stuff now? And Meyers body is athletic with more room to add strength and he has a solid delivery with minimal effort.

 

Max Meyer does not have a minimal effort delivery lol

 

High effort delivery + heavy slider usage + premium velocity, that scares me. I see him going the way of Carlos Rodon pretty easily. When pitchers have such a high attrition rate, I just don't know why you'd want that profile over someone like Emerson Hancock, who is probably ML ready right now, has more pitches and much better command with a much more solid frame.

 

Being said, Nick Gonzales is the clear pick for me here. I'd take him over everyone outside of Martin and Tork. I hate getting invested in the draft.

[Boxcar]

Why would there be any need for a smokescreen in the MLB draft when you can't trade picks? That makes no sense.

 

Pre draft bargaining. In theory, they could be trying to work out a deal with Hancock or Gonzales, for example, and throwing around Meyer to get them to agree to a smaller number that they wouldn't be able to get further down the draft board.

 

The theory could be total BS, that would just be the logic behind it. I've got 18 delicious sours riding on them picking Gonzales so they better make it happen.

[metafour]

Max Meyer does not have a minimal effort delivery lol

 

Its an explosive delivery as you would expect from a highly athletic pitcher who generates unprecedented velocity relative to size. Explosive does not necessarily mean bad.

 

His delivery is very sound, and he throws strikes consistently which means that he's not just winding back like an idiot to throw as hard as he can.

[Boxcar]

Its an explosive delivery as you would expect from a highly athletic pitcher who generates unprecedented velocity relative to size. Explosive does not necessarily mean bad.

 

His delivery is very sound, and he throws strikes consistently which means that he's not just winding back like an idiot to throw as hard as he can.

 

I didn't say that, I just said it isn't "minimal effort" as was implied.

[BlueRocky]

Baseball America just opened an usually early 10AM draft chat, fire Carlos your questions here if you’re a subscriber:

 

https://www.baseballamerica.com/chat/?1591706440

[Boxcar]

For those who haven't seen it, here is Max Meyer in action. I'm not as much of an expert as others on here but this delivery doesn't look great to me. Looks like he really "short arms" the ball. The delivery isn't fluid and his arm looks a bit late to me.

 

[KevinGregg]

For those who haven't seen it, here is Max Meyer in action. I'm not as much of an expert as others on here but this delivery doesn't look great to me. Looks like he really "short arms" the ball. The delivery isn't fluid and his arm looks a bit late to me.

 

 

Cant argue with that. Get the kid a good pitching coach and he might hit 110

[metafour]

Anyone have access to this? Probably relevant for us, being a data-driven team:

 

 

[Boxcar]

Cant argue with that. Get the kid a good pitching coach and he might hit 110

 

If you change his delivery and arm action, will he maintain his command? Spin rates? Consistent release point?

 

Just too many red flags for me.

[metafour]

For those who haven't seen it, here is Max Meyer in action. I'm not as much of an expert as others on here but this delivery doesn't look great to me. Looks like he really "short arms" the ball. The delivery isn't fluid and his arm looks a bit late to me.

 

 

I'm not going to even pretend to be an expert on pitching mechanics. Can you prove that you aren't just looking for things to not like? Because no one else is really that concerned about his delivery.

[BlueRocky]

Why would there be any need for a smokescreen in the MLB draft when you can't trade picks? That makes no sense.

 

For those wondering about the slot values:

Toronto Blue Jays pool: $9,716,500

 

#5 ) $6,180,700 (@64% of pool)

#42) $1,771,100 (@18%)

#77) $805,600 (@8%)

#106) $549,000 (@6%)

#136) $410,100 (@4%)

 

Undrafted players can sign for up to $20,000 only, not negotiable.

 

The first $100,000 will be advanced after signing. Then half the remainder paid in 2021 and the last half in 2022, this is both for tax purposes and to assist teams with cash flow due to season suspension.

It’s a fair question. With $9.7M pool and your first pick is worth 6.2M, if you can sign the guy for 5.5M, there’s an extra $700K for pick 42.

 

Having $2.5M to work with instead of 1.7M is the difference between signing a Daxton Fulton, Jared Jones, or Enrique Bradfield vs a college player.

 

Teams are not supposed to do pre-draft negotiations and deals ahead of time, but we know it happens every year.

 

A college player isn’t bad, it’s just if they are targeting a specific guy in the second round the extra money doesn’t hurt.

[Brownie19]

Pre draft bargaining. In theory, they could be trying to work out a deal with Hancock or Gonzales, for example, and throwing around Meyer to get them to agree to a smaller number that they wouldn't be able to get further down the draft board.

 

The theory could be total BS, that would just be the logic behind it. I've got 18 delicious sours riding on them picking Gonzales so they better make it happen.

 

Fair point - I never considered it from a contract negotiation aspect. Appreciate the input.

 

That said, it seems odd that if they are negotiating with Veen, that leaked rumours they really like Meyer would play any tangible role (however, I've never negotiated a $6M deal, so what do I know - I'd probably s*** my pants).