MLB 2020 Draft

[Carlos Danger]

Fair point - I never considered it from a contract negotiation aspect. Appreciate the input.

 

That said, it seems odd that if they are negotiating with Veen, that leaked rumours they really like Meyer would play any tangible role (however, I've never negotiated a $6M deal, so what do I know - I'd probably s*** my pants).

 

In negotiating, be it a house, or whatever, you never show your hand and let the other side know you want something so much they can use that to their advantage.. From a business point of view, IF they are negotiating with a high school kid, I would DEF use the fact I can go a "proven" college kid route or any other comp that give me an advantage for equal dollars etc... Or to sum it up, I would def myself, and I can see why any smart business guy would leak or allow the perception that their is competition and they are willing to go elsewhere.

[BlueRocky]

Baseball America just opened an usually early 10AM draft chat, fire Carlos your questions here if you’re a subscriber:

 

https://www.baseballamerica.com/chat/?1591706440

 

Zac Veen (Florida): How fair are the Cody Bellinger and Christian Yelich comps I'm getting?

 

Carlos Collazo: I think in terms of comparing their actual swings they are fine comps. I see a lot of similarities there. But Veen is significantly more filled out and has more present power than both of those two players at the same time. Not to say he's going to be better than them, because Yellich and Bellinger obviously turned into better players than teams expected but I think that's a key difference in how they were evaluated around draft time.

 

Jamal (New York): How do you expect strategies to work for teams with no extra picks this year? Do you expect lots of senior signs, freeing up money to use for an extra higher profile player? Teams just use their 5% money for one additional over slot? Teams just taking college players with all 5 picks? If they do use senior signs, are they your 4th and 5th rounders? Or do you maybe use it on your 3rd or 4th, so you’ve got a solid amount heading into the 5th, to just go down the line with and get the highest guy on your board willing to accept it?

 

Carlos Collazo: I think this will vary significantly depending on the team. I don't think there's going to be one strategy that everyone in the industry follows. That's never the case. I would not expect a significant number of senior signs though. I would also be skeptical of a strategy that employed drafting a senior in the third round to save money for someone in the fifth. That seems backwards to me because you could lose out on a lot of the talent you were hoping to get in the first place.

 

Daniel (Milton): In a shortened draft, could you see a team "punting" a couple of picks to concentrate their cap on getting 2-3 high level guys? As a jays fan I would be ok with them punting even 3 picks in order to get two "stud" players.

 

Carlos Collazo: Yeah, I could see that happening for sure this year. I haven't heard any direct rumors about that with the Jays or any other team to this point, but it wouldn't be surprising. I think that's something a team might pivot to after seeing a player fall to them that they didn't expect to be there, but who they really like.

 

Max (Kansas City, MO): What is your sense on how the quality of this draft class compares to recent years?

 

Carlos Collazo: This is the deepest class that I've covered since joining Baseball America before the 2017 draft. It's strong at at the top, and has good depth at the college level and the high school level in my opinion. It's very, very good.

 

Will update as I see them

[Grant77]

Jim Callis, in a Sportsnet interview, thinks that Zac Veen is the Jays top target with Max Meyer our top pitching target. He also thinks that the Royals take Veen at number 4.

[Carlos Danger]

Jim Callis, in a Sportsnet interview, thinks that Zac Veen is the Jays top target with Max Meyer our top pitching target. He also thinks that the Royals take Veen at number 4.

 

I hope he is our top target and I am very glad to hear that. Unfortunately, I think we will all get Blue Balls because I also agree he will go to the Royals..

 

However, if Baltimore decides to go under slot, that could work to our favor!! Go Baltimore, get wack!!

[Brownie19]

Jim Callis, in a Sportsnet interview, thinks that Zac Veen is the Jays top target with Max Meyer our top pitching target. He also thinks that the Royals take Veen at number 4.

 

As if I needed another reason to hate the Royals.

[BlueRocky]

I hope he is our top target and I am very glad to hear that. Unfortunately, I think we will all get Blue Balls because I also agree he will go to the Royals..

 

However, if Baltimore decides to go under slot, that could work to our favor!! Go Baltimore, get wack!!

 

Honestly if they really wanted a hitter, Nick Gonzales isn’t a bad consolation prize. If those video game numbers lasted for a whole season, there’s no chance he’s available at 5. I would’ve banked on that happening and Hancock bouncing back rather than Asa Lacy holding up his dominance for a full stretch, pitchers generally don’t shake off poor command in just six months and his delivery hasn’t drastically changed at all from last year.

 

But it seems the Blue Jays are highly connected to college pitching with the 5th pick, you guys already know who I like. But yeah, I can understand their love for Max Meyer IF the rumors are true and they take him. If they’re that high on him, they’re ultimately thinking Walker Buehler with Max Meyer and not Marcus Stroman.

[Carlos Danger]

Honestly if they really wanted a hitter, Nick Gonzales isn’t a bad consolation prize. If those video game numbers lasted for a whole season, there’s no chance he’s available at 5. I would’ve banked on that happening and Hancock bouncing back rather than Asa Lacy holding up his dominance for a full stretch, pitchers generally don’t shake off poor command in just six months.

 

But it seems the Blue Jays are highly connected to college pitching with the 5th pick, you guys already know who I like. But yeah, I can understand their love for Max Meyer IF the rumors are true and they ultimately take him. If they’re that high on him, they’re ultimately thinking Walker Buehler with Max Meyer and not Marcus Stroman.

 

The problem I have with Gonzalez is everyone recognizes his league/competition/home park etc, and then says well he did well in the Cape Cod League..

 

I remember the Cape Cod League being used before with a player we drafted or tried to and it didn't end up meaning much. Also, since this is real life and not Fantasy baseball, his defensive/position issues are a negative to me as opposed to a guy who can play CF etc like Veen.

[metafour]

If those video game numbers lasted for a whole season, there’s no chance he’s available at 5.

 

Why? You think teams put any weight in his college numbers? They've already seen him beat up on complete no-name competition; he's going Top 10 because of his scouted tools, not because of his "stats" - therefore his stats wouldn't have made any further improvement on his stock. Teams don't buy into his power numbers because of his swing and exit velocity - with analytics taking over scouting, no one cares if he hits 5 HR's against a team that went 7-45 last season at 3,900 feet elevation.

[BlueRocky]

The problem I have with Gonzalez is everyone recognizes his league/competition/home park etc, and then says well he did well in the Cape Cod League..

 

I remember the Cape Cod League being used before with a player we drafted or tried to and it didn't end up meaning much. Also, since this is real life and not Fantasy baseball, his defensive/position issues are a negative to me as opposed to a guy who can play CF etc like Veen.

 

But it’s not like he had one good junior season, Gonzales has raked every year in college. The cape-cod sample was just to diffuse the notion all his power comes from altitude and he can do it with wood.

 

In these recent mock scenarios, KC will take Zac Veen. So it’s going to be between Gonzales or a college pitcher.

[Jimcanuck]

Between Hancock, Meyer, and Gonzales, gimme the bat.

 

BA's ranking as of yesterday has Hancock #4, Gonzales #5, and Meyer #10.

[glory]

If Veen is taken, I think it will come down to Meyer or Hancock. Usually I'd be against taking pitching this early in the draft, but I really don't like Gonzales' lack of positional versatility, and that's going to put a lot of pressure on his bat. At least with Veen, based on what I've read, a best case scenario for him offensively is very high even if he moves off CF.

 

If the only question with Meyer is his height, and he's still like 4-5 inches taller than Stroman (who has had a pretty good career), then I'd probably take that gamble if there isn't a bat available that I think is worth the pick. Really depends on how the Jays view Gonzales. Shatkins is known to like exit velocity, barrel%, etc, based on all of their pickups, so depends on how Gonzales ranks in those areas.

[metafour]

But it’s not like he had one good junior season, Gonzales has raked every year in college. The cape-cod sample was just to diffuse the notion all his power comes from altitude and he can do it with wood.

 

In these recent mock scenarios, KC will take Zac Veen. So it’s going to be between Gonzales or a college pitcher.

 

But the Cape Cod performance doesn't prove that he's going to be a masher at the MLB level, and his upside is ultimately going to depend on how much power he hits for. No one really questions his ability to hit. It's entirely possible that he really is this elite talent that goes on to become a star player, but his stock has "leveled down" because they've analyzed his swing and looked at the exit velocities...and it doesn't look like teams believe this 5'10 190 pound kid is going to be blasting homeruns against MLB pitching.

[BlueRocky]

Why? You think teams put any weight in his college numbers? They've already seen him beat up on complete no-name competition; he's going Top 10 because of his scouted tools, not because of his "stats" - therefore his stats wouldn't have made any further improvement on his stock. Teams don't buy into his power numbers because of his swing and exit velocity - with analytics taking over scouting, no one cares if he hits 5 HR's against a team that went 7-45 last season at 3,900 feet elevation.

 

He would’ve had the chance to prove it against better college competition and not just one series against Asa Lacy & Texas A&M. Teams absolutely put weight into college numbers. The draft rankings are practically a stock market where confidence is the measurement, of current tools and future projections.

 

Asa Lacy’s stuff hasn’t change from last year, yet he leap frogged Hancock as the consensus pitcher in the class after a very good spring and even entered discussions of being 1-1.

 

But the Cape Cod performance doesn't prove that he's going to be a masher at the MLB level, and his upside is ultimately going to depend on how much power he hits for. No one really questions his ability to hit. It's entirely possible that he really is this elite talent that goes on to become a star player, but his stock has "leveled down" because they've analyzed his swing and looked at the exit velocities...and it doesn't look like teams believe this 5'10 190 pound kid is going to be blasting homeruns against MLB pitching.

 

There’s nothing Gonzales can do to prove that. Cape data only proves he has done it with wood and against better pitching than Western Athletic Conference, which were both question marks before last summer.

[Carlos Danger]

But the Cape Cod performance doesn't prove that he's going to be a masher at the MLB level, and his upside is ultimately going to depend on how much power he hits for. No one really questions his ability to hit. It's entirely possible that he really is this elite talent that goes on to become a star player, but his stock has "leveled down" because they've analyzed his swing and looked at the exit velocities...and it doesn't look like teams believe this 5'10 190 pound kid is going to be blasting homeruns against MLB pitching.

 

I comp Gonzalez to Nick Madrigal. Which is not bad... However, if you look at comps of the other players (non-pitchers)....

[metafour]

Asa Lacy’s stuff hasn’t change from last year, yet he leap frogged Hancock as the consensus pitcher in the class after a very good spring and even entered discussions of being 1-1.

 

But Asa Lacy's overall control and command took a big step forward, and that is a big part of pitching. He was never lacking stuff. That isn't a valid comparison to Gonzales who is diminutive and without a swing that indicates big power output - he can't learn to grow taller, and while he could entirely rework his swing, he obviously isn't going to do that nor would anyone even suggest it.

 

There’s nothing Gonzales can do to prove that. Cape data only proves he has done it with wood and against better pitching than Western Athletic Conference, which were both question marks before last summer.

 

Exactly, which is why I said him playing in more games would be unlikely to raise his draft stock...because the things that scouts are looking at with him aren't things that are "overturned" by playing in more games.

[Jimcanuck]

I comp Gonzalez to Nick Madrigal. Which is not bad... However, if you look at comps of the other players (non-pitchers)....

 

I don't see the Madrigal comp. Madrigal has no power.

 

Albies, McNeil are better comps.

[Carlos Danger]

I don't see the Madrigal comp. Madrigal has no power.

 

Albies, McNeil are better comps.

 

From Metafour:

and it doesn't look like teams believe this 5'10 190 pound kid is going to be blasting homeruns against MLB pitching.

 

I tend to agree with this...

[Jimcanuck]

I tend to agree with this...

 

From Baseball America: Gonzales has elite bat-to-ball skills and plate discipline, and his strong hands allow him to make hard contact to all fields. He’s an above-average runner and has good baserunning instincts. Keston Hiura is a frequent comp for Gonzales, though the New Mexico State product has a better defensive profile and less raw power. Dustin Pedroia has been thrown on him as well. With his tremendous track record of hitting and strong Cape performance, Gonzales should go off the board among the first five picks.

 

Fangraphs has Gonzales with above average future power.

 

The idea that Gonzales will not hit HR against MLB pitching is silly.

[Carlos Danger]

Gonzales has elite bat-to-ball skills and plate discipline, and his strong hands allow him to make hard contact to all fields. He’s an above-average runner and has good baserunning instincts. Keston Hiura is a frequent comp for Gonzales, though the New Mexico State product has a better defensive profile and less raw power. Dustin Pedroia has been thrown on him as well. With his tremendous track record of hitting and strong Cape performance, Gonzales should go off the board among the first five picks.

 

Not disagreeing with any of that... However, what does it have to do with his HR power which is the discussion point?

[Slade]

For those who haven't seen it, here is Max Meyer in action. I'm not as much of an expert as others on here but this delivery doesn't look great to me. Looks like he really "short arms" the ball. The delivery isn't fluid and his arm looks a bit late to me.

 

 

I digress it's not minimal effort but definitely not high effort. He looks a lot like Walker Buehler.

 

BA

While Meyer is undersized at 6-foot, 180 pounds, there’s not a disconcerting amount of effort in his delivery and he also has a strong history of throwing quality strikes. He’s one of the more athletic pitchers in recent years and went from a late-first round arm to a potential top-10 pick thanks to his early-season performance.

 

MLBpipeline

There are questions as to whether Meyer can start at the highest level, mainly coming because he's a lean 6-footer. But he's also a quality athlete who repeats a fluid delivery and fills the strike zone, and he was so dominant in the brief 2020 season, so he has plenty of believers.

[BlueRocky]

I don't see the Madrigal comp. Madrigal has no power.

 

Albies, McNeil are better comps.

 

Madrigal has buffed up in the offseason and they were expecting more consistent power numbers in 2020. I’m not so sure about the Nick Madrigal comp, he was projected way more hit over power since the draft. 55 is the lowest power grade I’ve seen on Nick Gonzales which projects @25 HR these days.

[Carlos Danger]

Madrigal has buffed up in the offseason and they were expecting more consistent power numbers in 2020. I’m not so sure about the Nick Madrigal comp, he was projected way more hit over power since the draft. 55 is the lowest power grade I’ve seen on Nick Gonzales which projects @25 HR these days.

 

Fair enough...

[Brownie19]

Why do people compare Meyer to Walker Buehler? Just based on the slender, athletic frame? Buehler is listed at 6'2" and has a 4 pitch mix. I don't even see a ton of similarity in their deliveries.

[Slade]

An article on Nick Gonzales, although not likely to change anyone's opinions I can see a lot of Brian Roberts in him.

 

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/29279565/2020-mlb-draft-how-nick-gonzales-showed-gaudy-stats-come-thin-air

 

Nick Gonzales secured a .502 on-base percentage through a 128-game collegiate career that has undoubtedly reached its conclusion. He once belted five home runs over the course of one doubleheader. And when the coronavirus pandemic shut down American sports for the foreseeable future, he was riding an 82-game on-base streak that will now just sit there, unblemished for all eternity.

 

But the most impressive, most telling statistic surrounding Gonzales, the New Mexico State infielder who is all but certain to be a top-10 pick in this year's MLB draft, is much simpler than that: During an entire summer in the Cape Cod League, through 185 plate appearances and countless rounds of batting practice, he broke just two bats.

 

Mike Roberts has coached 18 seasons in the Cape and has consistently seen amateurs struggle to transition from aluminum bats to wood, the latter of which has a special way of exposing flaws within a swing. Strike the baseball anywhere outside the heart of a barrel that measures no more than five inches, and usually that chiseled piece of ash is rendered useless. Roberts, who coached Gonzales for the 2019 Cotuit Kettleers, has urged players to use a different bat in a game than they would in practice. In a typical summer at the Cape, he expects his regulars to break a minimum of 12 to 15 bats. Two?

 

"I mean, I went through maybe like two a week," said Adam Oviedo, a TCU infielder who played shortstop for Roberts last summer. "I had a wood bat break on me when I just went to home plate and tapped on it and I said, 'What the heck?'"

 

Full coverage of the 2020 MLB draft is available here

 

Watch the 2020 MLB draft on ESPN & the ESPN App

 

Wednesday: Round 1 starting at 7 p.m. ET (ESPN)

 

Thursday: Rounds 2-5 starting at 5 p.m. ET (ESPN2)

 

Kiley McDaniel's latest mock draft

 

Team-by-team draft guide: Fits, needs for all 30 teams

 

Ranking the top 150 MLB draft prospects

 

Gonzales was hardly on the national radar when he joined the Kettleers and became Oviedo's double-play partner last summer. The incredible numbers he had compiled through his first two seasons at New Mexico State were mostly dismissed because of the inferiority of the Western Athletic Conference and the hitter-friendly environment of his home ballpark, which sits at an elevation of nearly 4,000 feet. Major league scouts needed to see Gonzales perform in a more neutral environment -- against better collegiate arms, with a bat made of wood.

 

"I kind of went in there knowing that, but when I got there I just played the game," Gonzales said. "Fortunately, I played well."

 

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Gonzales, 21, batted .351 with 25 extra-base hits in a 42-game, championship-winning season that major league executives will cling to in a year devoid of meaningful stats from amateurs. Midway through the playoffs, with his team down a run in the bottom of the seventh and 3,000 people crammed into a small ballpark, Gonzales worked the count full and blasted a two-run homer to straightaway center field. The following night, in the opener of a best-of-three final round, Gonzales came up with two outs and runners on the corners in the top of the 15th and lined an 0-2 offering up the middle for the winning hit.

 

After it was over, Roberts gathered his players in the dugout and passed around a sheet of paper so they could vote on the league's MVP. His catcher, Cody Pasic, stated that it wasn't necessary. He looked around the room.

 

"Guys," Pasic hollered, "who's the MVP?"

 

"Nick Gonzales!" they blurted out in unison.

 

"Nobody even wrote anything on the paper," Oviedo said. "It was just that clear."

 

There were rumors floating around the Little League circuit that Nick Gonzales was utilizing a juiced bat because few could understand how somebody so small could hit a baseball so far. His father, Mike, once found himself within earshot of two friends whispering the claim to themselves after another titanic home run and decided he was fed up. He offered a bet: $500, and he'll saw his son's bat in half to settle this once and for all. They backed off.

 

Another allegation was made on Facebook when Gonzales was only 12. His older brother, Daniel, who went on to become a star linebacker at Navy and is now stationed in Okinawa, Japan, felt compelled to reply. He wrote about all those nights when his little brother returned from games and decided he needed to hit some more, and all those mornings when Mike would get up at 5:30 and find Nick hitting baseballs into a net in the garage. Daniel's message, basically: If only you knew how hard this kid worked.

 

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"My wife says he's got an obsessive compulsive behavior," Mike Gonzales said of his youngest son. "Whatever he latches onto, that's all he does -- and it's been baseball for a long time."

 

There are concerns about Gonzales' size -- he's listed by New Mexico State at 5-foot-10, 190 pounds -- and his throwing arm. The belief is that he won't be better than an average defender who might be good enough to hold his own at second base but won't be able to play shortstop at the major league level. But people rave about his work ethic and discipline -- and few now question his ability to hit.

 

Roberts, a longtime coach at the University of North Carolina, compared Gonzales' rhythm and balance to that of Miguel Cabrera and Manny Ramirez. Oviedo marveled at Gonzales' unrelenting plate discipline. New Mexico State coach Mike Kirby noted his ability to spot tendencies in split seconds, like how the angle on a pitcher's wrist will shift slightly as he prepares to throw a breaking ball. But the separator is his hand speed.

 

"Off the charts," said Casey Schmitt, who played third base on last year's Kettleers team. "I've never seen anything like it."

 

Gonzales was a little uphill at the point of contact and struggled to drive pitches to the opposite field when he reached college. Brian Green, the former Aggies coach who's now at Washington State University, brought his top-hand elbow down, raised his hands and put him in position to get into his swing more quickly. It accentuated Gonzales' inherent hand speed, which allowed him to maximize the amount of time he could spend watching pitches travel before reacting.

 

While he was tearing it up in the Cape Cod League and thusly shooting up prospective draft boards last summer, Gonzales sent Green a photo. It's a side image of a baseball no more than 18 inches from reaching home plate. Gonzales is still in the early part of his swing path, with the barrel of his bat at the level of his right shoulder -- for a pitch he ultimately drove. To Green, it's a photo indicative of the trait that makes Gonzales a special hitter, regardless of setting.

 

"Nick knows, and has learned, that he can wait a very long time before he has to make a decision," Green said. "And that's what makes him elite."

 

Mike Roberts' son, Brian, stood 5-foot-9 and weighed around 175 pounds during his playing days. He wasn't heavily recruited out of high school, but he went on to make two All-Star teams and carve out a 14-year major league career -- predominantly with the Baltimore Orioles -- by working harder and becoming more polished than most of his peers. When Mike watched Nick Gonzales, he saw his son.

 

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"When you're not recruited very much, you have a humility that a lot of people don't have, particularly outstanding players," Mike Roberts said. "And I think that's the first thing that stands out about Nick is his humility. Youngsters that are humble first and haven't been told as they come through all the travel ball leagues how good they are every day -- they have a humility and a self-motivation and a love of practice because they've had to outwork most of their peers to get there."

 

Gonzales hit .543 during his senior year for Cienega High School in Vail, Arizona, but the University of Arizona didn't pay much attention to him. Mike Gonzales initially thought his son would go to Grand Canyon University based on his conversations with its head baseball coach, but nothing materialized. Austin Peay State University in Tennessee was the one school that kept pushing, offering a scholarship package typically reserved for highly sought-after pitchers. But Gonzales wanted to remain close to home. On a free weekend, Nick and Mike toured New Mexico State on their own and scheduled a meeting with then-coach Brian Green, who offered his typical 90-minute PowerPoint presentation but also cautioned that he had no more money to offer.

 

"They don't think I can play," Nick told his father on their way back home. "I'm gonna show them."

 

Nick transformed his body when he left high school, putting on an estimated 15 pounds of muscle over the course of his freshman year of college. The ball suddenly began to jump off his bat. Green initially thought Gonzales would redshirt as a freshman, but Green wound up starting him for 53 of the Aggies' 62 games. Gonzales led the team in batting average (.347) and led the conference in slugging percentage (.596), ultimately becoming the first WAC freshman of the year in New Mexico State history. Throughout the spring, he played with the acronym "PTAW" written on his glove -- "Prove Them All Wrong."

 

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Green had spent a quarter century coaching in the collegiate circuit by that point, at small schools like Riverside City College and major programs like Kentucky.

 

"That type of development, right in front of your eyes, I had never seen it," Green said. "It was mind-blowing, to be quite honest."

 

Gonzales went on to hit .432/.532/.773 as a sophomore in 2019 and .448/.610/1.155 during his abbreviated 16-game junior season in 2020. He finished his collegiate career with a 1.249 OPS and 10 more walks than strikeouts. But it was one summer on Cape Cod, Massachusetts, that changed everything.

 

Gonzales understood the moment but didn't obsess over it. Roberts referred to it as "a quiet motivation." Mike Gonzales watched the first few games on a livestream and wondered why his son seemed so passive at the plate. He asked what was wrong, and Gonzales explained that he was still feeling his way through. The window was small, the pressure was obvious, but first he needed to acclimate himself.

 

"And then suddenly it just clicked," Mike Gonzales said. "I was just in awe the whole time."

[baubau]

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/mlb-draft-rumors-why-one-team-with-a-top-10-pick-might-intentionally-use-it-on-an-unsignable-player/

 

Would be interesting to see if a team would actually punt this year's pick. I don't know why, but this screams Padres or Rockies.

[Slade]

Anyone have access to this? Probably relevant for us, being a data-driven team:

 

 

 

Solid article, it will be really interesting to see which teams pick these guys up.

 

TrackMan Baseball has provided ESPN with tons of data to use on the broadcast of the Major League Baseball draft on Wednesday and Thursday, so you'll see it peppered throughout both visually and verbally. I wanted to take a chance to include lots of those notes you'll see and hear and also throw in a bunch of other stuff, to illustrate the sort of data that until now only teams had in a comprehensive supply.

 

This dataset includes players from junior colleges (about a dozen schools have it), the Cape Cod League and high school (a number of showcases and all-star games were played in front of units), in addition to four-year college players (more than 70 Division I schools pay to have a unit at their stadium). So when I refer to "third best in the draft class," it includes the vast majority of players on my rankings, but not every single one of them. Data is from 2019 unless specifically stated to be from 2020.

 

Pitchers

 

First, some single-event superlatives. Notre Dame RHP Joe Boyle had the fastest recorded pitch at 101.0 mph, and he'll go outside the top few rounds due to command issues. But there's a mess of early-round prospects just behind Boyle on the list: Georgia RHPs Cole Wilcox (99.3) and Emerson Hancock (99.2), along with Oklahoma RHP Cade Cavalli (98.9), Ball State RHP Kyle Nicolas (98.6), and Texas prep RHP Jared Kelley (98.4).

 

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Some names with sleeper arm strength to keep an eye on: Loyola Marymount RHP Nick Frasso (97.5), Vanderbilt RHP Tyler Brown (96.9) and LHP Jake Eder (97.0), along with East Carolina RHP Gavin Williams (98.3).

 

Looking at average velocity and looking for new names would give us more sustained velocity rather than single bullets, and we find Texas prep SS/RHP Masyn Winn (94.7) from his electric outing in October in Jupiter, Florida; Florida prep RH Victor Mederos (94.4); and Southern Miss RHP Gabe Shepard (94.3), mostly from his stellar start in last year's regionals.

 

Some arms that popped up from the 2020-only sample include Minnesota RHP Max Meyer (96.8 average, 99.7 peak), Dallas Baptist LHP Burl Carraway (96.4 average, 99.3 peak), and Louisville RHP Bobby Miller (95.8 average, 98.7 peak).

 

Fastball spin is generally a good thing, but spin axis is very important, so I won't spend too much time on raw average fastball spin rates. Some leaders: New York prep RHP Alex Santos (2612), Tennessee LHP Garrett Crochet (2573), and Vanderbilt RHP Tyler Brown (2548).

 

Brown's velocity, spin rate, college reliever track record and pro starting pitcher traits have lots of similarities to former New York Yankees prospect Chance Adams, which explains why the Yankees are among the clubs rumored to be kicking the tires on Brown for a role change in pro ball in Rounds 3 and 4.

 

Carraway also is at Dallas Baptist currently, and he is third on the 2020 list at 2520 rpm, with an optimized four-seam fastball/curveball repertoire that many clubs covet. I'm also told he learned how to throw a slider (which also grades as plus now) at a DBU camp from Clayton Kershaw, so good luck, hitters.

 

Key 2020 MLB draft details

Shortened to five rounds instead of 40

 

Round 1: June 10, 7 p.m. ET (ESPN); Rounds 2-5: June 11, 5 p.m. ET (ESPN2)

 

Teams can utilize draft money as they choose

 

Teams can sign unlimited number of undrafted players for $20,000

 

Draft pick signing deadline expected to be Aug. 1

 

One more important element of a four-seam, high-spin, up-in-the-zone fastball is the vertical approach angle, which a pitcher wants to be as flat as possible, or the lowest possible number. Essentially, this is measuring the plane as the pitch crosses the plate, from the perspective of the dugout. If all swings have an element of lift, the flattest possible fastball will intersect with that bat path for the least amount of time. Someone like Craig Kimbrel -- not tall, with a lower arm slot, big extension down the mound for a lower release point, high spin and a "rising" four-seam fastball -- is one of the most extreme versions of the ideal way to achieve this.

 

At the top of the 2019 leaderboard here is Oklahoma prep RHP Nate Wohlgemuth (-3.7), Texas prep SS/RHP Masyn Winn (-4.1) and California prep LHP Kyle Harrison (-4.1). Wohlgemuth and Winn both get into the upper-90s at times with their fastball velocity, while Harrison is more of a touch-and-feel, low-90s lefty who likely goes to college baseball. Winn also is considered a better prospect as a shortstop than a pitcher, so you can see why clubs including the Tampa Bay Rays and San Diego Padres are circling him in to get picked in the 20s to 30s overall as a potential two-way pro prospect.

 

On the 2020 data, the -4.0 from Tech RHP Zach Brzykcy -- pronounced BRICK-see, like a character in a Guy Ritchie film, played by Colin Farrell -- stands out, and Brzykcy also averaged 95.1 mph on his heater in 2020, topping at 97.7. Command issues will limit him to the later rounds of this year's draft.

 

Next we move onto average raw curveball spin rate, which is subject to the same spin axis issues of a fastball, but both can be relatively reliably tweaked in player development, and more spin is generally better. The top single spin rate measured was that of Texas Tech RHP Clayton Beeter (3090 peak, 2783 average), which is one big reason why some analysts think his curveball is a true 80 pitch, one of two true 80 breaking balls in the draft, along with Max Meyer's spike-grip slider. The top average spin rate in 2020 is that of Ohio State LHP Seth Lonsway (2844), who had a 65- or 70-grade hammer when I saw him this spring against Georgia Tech.

 

A few sleepers in the 2020 data on their curveballs are Florida State LHP Shane Drohan (2747, was a clear 60- or 65-grade pitch to my eyes in high school), Clemson LHP Sam Weatherly (2692, drawing universal 60+ grades from scouts) and South Carolina RHP Brannon Jordan (2659), who is getting fourth- or fifth-round buzz following a strong spring for the Gamecocks after transferring from a junior college. The top 2019 peak and average exit velocities belongs to Florida prep LHP Mason Miller (2874 average, 3053 peak), who works in the low-90s and has a shot to be picked because of this ultra-high-spin yakker.

 

Lastly, Zach Day at TrackMan Baseball used some of its pitch-grading algorithms, comparable to what clubs use, to offer his top 20 pitchers in the draft based on that data:

 

2020 MLB draft coverage

 

• Kiley McDaniel's MLB mock draft 2.0 »

• Top 150 prospects » | Team guide »

• Redrafting top picks from 2010-2019 »

• Meet MLB draft's man of mystery »

• 'Tork' about to make draft history »

• Gonzales' stats not out of thin air »

More 2020 MLB draft coverage »

 

1. Max Meyer, Minnesota

2. Asa Lacy, Texas A&M

3. Clayton Beeter, Texas Tech

4. Garrett Crochet, Tennessee

5. Emerson Hancock, Georgia

6. Tanner Witt, Texas HS (2759 rpm average, 2990 rpm peak curveball spin rates)

7. Tanner Burns, Auburn

8. Logan Allen, Florida International

9. Reid Detmers, Louisville

10. Mason Erla, Michigan State

11. Bryce Jarvis, Duke

12. Masyn Winn, Texas HS

13. Burl Carraway, Dallas Baptist

14. Christian Chamberlain, Oregon State

15. Slade Cecconi, Miami

16. Brannon Jordan, South Carolina

17. Jared Jones, California HS

18. Mick Abel, Oregon HS

19. Cole Wilcox, Georgia

20. Nate Wohlgemuth, Oklahoma HS

 

Hitters

 

Who wants to see some dingers? The two top single exit velocities measured in 2019 or 2020 come from two potential fourth- or fifth-round picks who are pretty one-dimensional, but draft models love them due to these numbers: Georgia Tech RF Baron Radcliff (116.3 mph) and Florida State RF Elijah Cabell (114.0 mph), both in 2019. The next three after them from 2019 all will likely go in the top 37 picks: North Carolina 1B Aaron Sabato (113.6), Arizona State 1B Spencer Torkelson (112.8) and toolshed Mississippi State SS Jordan Westburg (112.2).

 

Most hyped prospect ever for every team

 

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The top single 2020 exit velocity comes from another later-round prospect in Joey Wiemer (113.8 mph), the tools-over-performance right fielder from Cincinnati. And the third-highest one comes from another lighter performer who has such upside that he might sneak into the second round: Arizona State 3B Gage Workman (112.6 mph).

 

One more single-event leaderboard is for distance, and a lot of the same names pop up, with Radcliff's 471-foot shot ranking as the 2019-20 leader. Some new names that pop up: Arkansas RF Heston Kjerstad (446 feet) and SS Casey Martin (442 feet, which is a somewhat shocking number considering Martin is an 80-grade runner who can play a solid shortstop).

 

The top prep distance is from another draft-model darling -- Canadian left fielder Owen Caissie -- at 428 feet. He will turn 17 on draft day.

 

A more indicative number of overall hitting skill is hard-hit rate, meaning the amount of balls hit over 95 mph among all the balls a prospect has put in play. Sample size is a big issue with these figures, so it means the most in the SEC, where almost the whole league has TrackMan units (that is, almost every swing is captured) and the competition level is the highest.

 

Among SEC performers in 2019 -- because 2020 sample sizes are too small -- the leaders (and everyone above 50%) are Tennessee left fielder Alerick Soularie (64%, projected for the third to fifth rounds); Mississippi State left fielder Tanner Allen (55%, injured but a possible draftee); Vanderbilt infielder Austin Martin (54%, likely to be among the top five picks overall); Mississippi State shortstop Jordan Westburg (54%, a likely first-rounder); Westburg's double-play partner, Justin Foscue (52%, another likely first-rounder); and two more teammates in Arkansas' Heston Kjerstad (52%, first round) and Casey Martin (52%, second round).

 

Some data sleepers from Zach Day: Texas A&M outfielder Zach DeLoach (whom I project going in the second round) and Michigan outfielder Jordan Nwogu (third or fourth round)

[BlueRocky]

Tanner Witt is ridiculous.

 

Thanks for posting Slade, great articles.

 

Pitchers

 

First, some single-event superlatives. Notre Dame RHP Joe Boyle had the fastest recorded pitch at 101.0 mph, and he'll go outside the top few rounds due to command issues. But there's a mess of early-round prospects just behind Boyle on the list: Georgia RHPs Cole Wilcox (99.3) and Emerson Hancock (99.2), along with Oklahoma RHP Cade Cavalli (98.9), Ball State RHP Kyle Nicolas (98.6), and Texas prep RHP Jared Kelley (98.4).

 

Some arms that popped up from the 2020-only sample include Minnesota RHP Max Meyer (96.8 average, 99.7 peak), Dallas Baptist LHP Burl Carraway (96.4 average, 99.3 peak), and Louisville RHP Bobby Miller (95.8 average, 98.7 peak).

 

These readings are pretty consistent to stuff we posted before. But still, seeing a 96.8 avg and 99.7 peak on Meyer is pretty bonkers for his size. He throws harder than Carraway which is a reliever.

 

Next we move onto average raw curveball spin rate, which is subject to the same spin axis issues of a fastball, but both can be relatively reliably tweaked in player development, and more spin is generally better. The top single spin rate measured was that of Texas Tech RHP Clayton Beeter (3090 peak, 2783 average), which is one big reason why some analysts think his curveball is a true 80 pitch, one of two true 80 breaking balls in the draft, along with Max Meyer's spike-grip slider. The top average spin rate in 2020 is that of Ohio State LHP Seth Lonsway (2844), who had a 65- or 70-grade hammer when I saw him this spring against Georgia Tech.

 

I heard Beeter is getting first round traction by teams in the late first round range, not sure he’ll be there at 42.

[Ray]

I generally agree with best player available, but the pitching is so deep in this class that I kind of hope we end up taking an impactful bat 5th (Veen/Gonzales). There will still be plenty of good pitching to pick from in the 2nd round.

[BlueRocky]

Baseball America just opened an usually early 10AM draft chat, fire Carlos your questions here if you’re a subscriber:

 

https://www.baseballamerica.com/chat/?1591706440

 

More BA draft talk:

BlueJayMatt (Toronto): Can you compare Hancock and Meyer for those of us eagerly awaiting to see which one the Jays will pick (assuming Veen is taken). What kind of grades would you put on each for FB, SL/CB, CU, and command?

 

Carlos Collazo: Meyer has a more electric two pitch combo in his fastball and slider, but Hancock has the more traditional complete starter's profile with a deeper pitch mix and better command. We broke down all the tools of the top players in each position group. You can see the righthanders here, and check out each of the specific tool grades for Hancock and Meyer, as well as the other top RHPs: https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/mick-abel-vs-jared-kelley-2020-mlb-draft-prospect-showdown-rhp-rankings/

 

BlueJayMatt (Toronto): Which college starter is most likely to make it to Toronto's pick at 42? Jarvis, Miller, Shuster, Beeter, or Henry?

 

Carlos Collazo: The college starters have been exceptionally difficult to figure out, because there are so many who are thought of in a similar range. I could see all of those guys being gone before the Blue Jays pick there. In fact, in our most recent mock, we have all of those guys off the board before the first comp round ends... It seems reasonable to think one could get there but I couldn't tell you which one is most likely. Jarvis might be the least likely.

 

bobtillman (mass): Is there a limit on how many 20K guys a team can sign? Do they have to stay in their budget allotment?

 

Carlos Collazo: There's no limit to UDFA signees. Teams can sign as many as they like.

 

Andrew Friedman (LA): Why does BA have us taking Tucker in round 1 in Mock 7? We are signing Wilman Diaz as our top International Prospect - a young SS. Seems like we have other needs than a very young SS. Are you thinking because we lost Downs to the Red Sox?

 

Carlos Collazo: I don't think teams draft for need like that in the first round. It wouldn't make much sense at all to do that, particularly when we're talking about teenage players here. A lot changes in five years. Also, you can never have enough shortstops.

 

Roger (Greenville, SC): If a team punts a top 10 pick, who is it, who do they burn the pick on, and does it lead to rule changes down the road? I'd feel terrible for the player.

 

Carlos Collazo: I've been asking around about this rumor after I saw it pop up today. Most of the people who I've spoken with haven't heard about it at all and think it's more smoke than anything. Some have said they've heard it, but I don't feel good enough about the info to mention the team. If a team would actually be punting on the pick it doesn't really matter who the player is. Doing something like this would be a huge slap in the face to your entire scouting staff, the players in the draft class and your fanbase, in my opinion. I'm not convinced at this point it is going to happen or is even real. It seems too outrageous.

 

Lou (MD): If you had a hundred poker chips and were betting: how many chips would you put on Austin Martin/Nick Gonzales/Zac Veen going #2 to the O’s?

 

J.J. Cooper: Hey guys, Carlos tagged me in for a few minutes here. I would go 60 chips on Martin, 30 on Gonzales and 5 on Veen and 5 on the field.

 

drew (Denver): In your opinion, would you rather have Abel or Bitsko? Who do you think has the higher floor/ceiling? Hoping Boston can get one of them.

 

J.J. Cooper: Abel has a lot of the attributes I love to see in a high school pitcher. He's a pitcher who keeps developing velocity with an already demonstrated ability to refine his pitches and a demonstrable work-ethic as a gym-rat (is facility-rat a more accurate term nowadays). I know the track record on HS RHPs in the first round is bad, but if you're going to take one, where teams have gotten into trouble is drafting for present velocity more than projection/pitchability/athleticism. Abel has all three of those attributes (and yes, he does have present velo too).

 

Bob Wagner (Oakland, CA): Could a team sign an undrafted for the obligatory 20K, then place him on active ML roster where he has to be paid at least the minimum salary?

 

J.J. Cooper: There would be a massive MLB investigation immediately, as teams are not allowed to promise a player a spot on the MLB roster at any point in the future as an inducement to sign. Such a move would likely be assumed to be a circumvention of the rules immediately, and then the team would have to prove that somehow this was all above board. If it was proven that such a roster spot had been promised to convince the player to sign, it is likely the MLB team would face significant penalties and potentially the suspension/firing of front office officials. The most significant thing that has come from the recent Astros penalties is the idea that GMs can be held responsible for the actions of their underlings. As I have heard scouts tell me, they have been told by their bosses "I'm not looking to be fired because someone below me wanted to break the rules." That said, it also makes no sense. 40-man roster spots are very valuable. If you like a guy that much, you're WAY better off drafting him in the fifth round and then signing him for $150K rather than wasting a 40-man roster spot for multiple years--remember if you remove him from the 40-man later you could lose him to any other team. I am surprise that as of yet, I have not hear of an MLB team deciding to offer an across the board inducement for all their MiLB players (I suggested a housing stipend). No extra inducements can be given to sign an NDFA, but you can raise what you spend on all MiLB players and then use that as an inducement to convince players to sign since it applies to all players in the organization.

 

Wally (The Green Monster): Tyler Sordestrom to the Red Sox what do I have to do to make it happen?

 

J.J. Cooper: At this moment I think he's off the board before then.

 

Jeff (Sandusky, OH): Who will teams look back on as a mid to late first rounder five years from now and say “damn, we should’ve taken him higher!”?

 

J.J. Cooper: My answer is Tennessee LHP Garrett Crochet. If this had been a normal year and he had gotten 10 starts, I think he could have pitched his way into top five consideration. This isn't a normal year and he threw three innings all spring before the COVID-19 shutdown. Crochet didn't get a chance to show he can start all spring, which was important to answering some team's questions and he had shoulder soreness as well. But if all of that is noise, I think five years from now we could look back and wonder how he didn't go in the top 10 picks in this draft.

 

Owen (NC): Do you envision Jordan Walker and Carson Montgomery getting to campus? What are their numbers and is it unlikely teams will be able to satisfy them?

 

Carlos Collazo: I think there are enough teams who are into Walker's bat/power upside who could take a shot on him. I would imagine it's less likely that Walker gets to school than Montgomery, who I could see blending in a bit more with the prep arms in his range and making it to Florida State. With a deep class of college arms, I wouldn't be surprised to see a ton of really talented prep pitchers make it to campus this year.

 

Seth (Pittsburgh): Is Hancock and a HS player the likely scenario for the Pirates tomorrow?

 

Carlos Collazo: I could see this happening for sure. Hancock is regularly talked about in that range and I think 5-7 is his sweet spot. They are one of several clubs who I would be on the lookout to go for an overslot deal with a high-upside prep in the comp round. They could get their pocket picked by the Orioles, who pick at 30 right in front of them and have the biggest bonus pool, but the Pirates have the 5th most money to spend and should be able to throw some weight around as well.

 

The chat is still on going.

JJ Cooper stepped in for Carlos, now he went for lunch and Carlos is back.

[Boxcar]

But the Cape Cod performance doesn't prove that he's going to be a masher at the MLB level, and his upside is ultimately going to depend on how much power he hits for. No one really questions his ability to hit. It's entirely possible that he really is this elite talent that goes on to become a star player, but his stock has "leveled down" because they've analyzed his swing and looked at the exit velocities...and it doesn't look like teams believe this 5'10 190 pound kid is going to be blasting homeruns against MLB pitching.

 

190 for a guy who is 5'10" is not skinny. Second, I'm confused as to why Gonzales' height matters but Meyer's doesn't. Jose Bautista was a home run king at 6'-0".

Edited June 9, 2020 by Boxcar