MLB 2020 Draft

[Brownie19]

It looks like Ginn is going to end up at the end of the 1st round...

[metafour]

Robert Hassell has received some Drew Waters comps - I wouldn't be mad at all if we popped him at #5 underslot, not that it looks like thats an option off of what we've been told.

[Slade]

I'm kinda hoping for a Groshans type of pick where we all flip out because it wasn't any of the names we discussed prior to the draft, and then we all look stupid when it turns out to be one of the better picks in the draft.

 

To be fair Groshans was connected to us predraft. That is usually why I want to hear what Keith Law says about us in his mock drafts his info has proven accurate for several years now.

 

Even the mock he just posted falls a lot in line with the quotes that I've heard from Shane Farrell about taking risks later in the draft.

 

I think if Veen is on the board for us he is probably our guy and if he is gone Meyer is our guy.

[metafour]

In before we take Tyler Soderstrom.

[BlueRocky]

A summary of the recent mock drafts, for others just catching up to all the mocks:

 

Keith Law is saying college guy and leaning towards pitching. Baseball America has been mixed, mocking us with both arms like Lacy, Hancock, also citing Meyer. While also mentioning Gonzales, and Veen in previous mocks.

 

Pipeline (Callis & Mayo) have cited Zac Veen + College Pitching if not available. Fangraphs (Longenhagen) has echoed the Zac Veen or college pitching sentiment with Max Meyer as the front runner, Jim Callis also believes the Jays are more enamored with Meyers than Hancock. Mason McRae from FutureBlueJays / Prospect365 is really high on Emerson Hancock and mocked him to us on several occasions.

 

 

 

If the Orioles or Royals take Zac Veen, it basically comes down to Gonzales, Hancock, or Meyer.

 

If you asked me two months ago, this would just be a dream scenario. I thought neither Gonzales and Hancock would even be on the table at #5. Now we’re choosing between Gonzales, Hancock, and Meyers as legit options, but that’s assuming the Orioles or Royals cockblock our pick. So the Blue Jays are in a pretty solid position either way. But I admit I’m higher on these three guys than most people.

 

I think Gonzales is a legit 60 hit / 60 power guy with plus plate discipline. If his hitting translates to the minors, that’s a top 20 prospect like a Carter Kieboom, Gavin Lux, or Keston Hiura. So the question becomes if you believe in that bat or not.

 

Both Hancock and Meyer have frontline potential. Do you want a FB/CU guy with bigger frame, better control, developing stuff and more pitchability?

 

Or a pitching analytics darling with nasty spin rate, movement, FB/SL guy that touches 101 mph with a mind bending slider that touches 93 mph? His tools are loud while being uber athletic and can hit a bit as an outfielder, but has smaller frame.

 

I don’t think you can go wrong here without the benefit of hindsight. The FB/SL guy seems like a bit of a risk as his effectiveness is directly tied to his velocity and stuff. But the ceiling is otherworldly and stuff is loud, it’s easier to dream on it.

 

Where as the FB/CU guy with pitchability can fall back on control, and has already learned to pitch without velo as he was never a flamethrower back in high school. Now that he’s hitting 96-98 in games, changeup is already plus, he just needs the benefit of time and experience to refine the secondaries. The frame is also ideal at 6-4, 215.

 

The options are great in either scenarios and it would be fun to follow the Blue Jays farm system watching a guy like Hancock or Meyer move up the ladder with Manoah, Simeon, Kloff, Kendall, and Pardinho. The pitching won’t arrive tomorrow, but the future rotation has become a lot deeper in just a few drafts.

 

Apologies for long rant.

Edited June 4, 2020 by BlueRocky

[Bturn2210]

A summary of the recent mock drafts, for others just catching up to all the mocks:

 

Keith Law is saying college guy and leaning towards pitching. Baseball America has been mixed, mocking us with both arms like Lacy, Hancock, also citing Meyer. While also mentioning Gonzales, and Veen in previous mocks.

 

Pipeline (Callis & Mayo) have cited Zac Veen + College Pitching if not available. Fangraphs (Longenhagen) has echoed the Zac Veen or college pitching sentiment with Max Meyer as the front runner, Jim Callis also believes the Jays are more enamored with Meyers than Hancock. Mason McRae from FutureBlueJays / Prospect365 is really high on Emerson Hancock and mocked him to us on several occasions.

 

 

 

If the Orioles or Royals take Zac Veen, it basically comes down to Gonzales, Hancock, or Meyer.

 

If you asked me two months ago, this would just be a dream scenario. I thought neither Gonzales and Hancock would even be on the table at #5. Now we’re choosing between Gonzales, Hancock, and Meyers as legit options, but that’s assuming the Orioles or Royals cockblock our pick. So the Blue Jays are in a pretty solid position either way. But I admit I’m higher on these three guys than most people.

 

I think Gonzales is a legit 60 hit / 60 power guy with plus plate discipline. If his hitting translates to the minors, that’s a top 20 prospect like a Carter Kieboom, Gavin Lux, or Keston Hiura. So the question becomes if you believe in that bat or not.

 

Both Hancock and Meyer have frontline potential. Do you want a FB/CU guy with bigger frame, better control, developing stuff and more pitchability?

 

Or a pitching analytics darling with nasty spin rate, movement, FB/SL guy that touches 101 mph with a mind bending slider that touches 93 mph? His tools are loud while being uber athletic and can hit a bit as an outfielder, but has smaller frame.

 

I don’t think you can go wrong here without the benefit of hindsight. The FB/SL guy seems like a bit of a risk as his effectiveness is directly tied to his velocity and stuff. But the ceiling is otherworldly and stuff is loud, it’s easier to dream on it.

 

Where as the FB/CU guy with pitchability can fall back on control, and has already learned to pitch without velo as he was never a flamethrower back in high school. Now that he’s hitting 96-98 in games, changeup is already plus, he just needs the benefit of time and experience to refine the secondaries. The frame is also ideal at 6-4, 215.

 

The options are great in either scenarios and it would be fun to follow the Blue Jays farm system watching a guy like Hancock or Meyer move up the ladder with Manoah, Simeon, Kloff, Kendall, and Pardinho. The pitching won’t arrive tomorrow, but the future rotation has become a lot deeper in just a few drafts.

 

Apologies for long rant.

 

no need to apologize, I enjoyed this post. I'd definitely be happy with Hancock, Meyer, or Gonzalez..wish June 10th would hurry up!

[Boxcar]

I feel like Hancock is being underrated for stupid reasons, so, with the caveat that I don't know anything and will be ambivalent towards whoever they go with, Gonzales and Hancock seem like the clear cut two best choices at 5.

[Brownie19]

BR - don't you ever apologize for your posts ever again you beautiful bastard!

[Slade]

I don't read MLBpipeline a lot but they've been doing some pieces on scouts with some notables for us. Matt Bishoff is a guy I have been following since we picked up Bichette, he's lead a ton of our best signings out of Florida. I like hearing Veen connected with us cause it probably means that Bishoff likes him a lot.

 

Gives a bit of insight to what these guys prioritize and value when setting up their boards.

 

https://www.mlb.com/news/blue-jays-scout-on-bo-bichette - Matt Bishoff

 

https://www.mlb.com/news/blue-jays-scout-andrew-tinnish - Andrew Tinnish

 

https://www.mlb.com/news/blue-jays-scout-jamie-lehman - Jamie Lehman

 

 

Also Jonathan Mayo did his latest mock.

 

https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-mock-draft-june-3

 

5. Blue Jays: Max Meyer, RHP, Minnesota

This could come down to more of a certainty with the college arm in Meyer or the upside of Veen’s bat.

[Brownie19]

I feel like Hancock is being underrated for stupid reasons, so, with the caveat that I don't know anything and will be ambivalent towards whoever they go with, Gonzales and Hancock seem like the clear cut two best choices at 5.

 

I agree on Hancock. I read in a mock yesterday how he was shaping up to be one of the best 1-1 picks in awhile after his 2019 season. That's high praise that now seems to be overshadowed by like 4 starts in 2020. The big unknown seems to be the report on his health, with some concern as to why he was shut down last year and was slow out of the gate this year. If teams get that information and it suggests a clean bill of health - he seems like an upside pick.

[P2F]

I agree on Hancock. I read in a mock yesterday how he was shaping up to be one of the best 1-1 picks in awhile after his 2019 season. That's high praise that now seems to be overshadowed by like 4 starts in 2020. The big unknown seems to be the report on his health, with some concern as to why he was shut down last year and was slow out of the gate this year. If teams get that information and it suggests a clean bill of health - he seems like an upside pick.

 

Funnily enough, his 'mediocre' start has been so widely overblown by his 'just okay' 3.75 ERA. I mean, he had 11.33 K/BB in the 4 starts. 34 K, 3 BB in 24 IP. That's utterly dominant.

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=hancoc000eme

[Brownie19]

Funnily enough, his 'mediocre' start has been so widely overblown by his 'just okay' 3.75 ERA. I mean, he had 11.33 K/BB in the 4 starts. 34 K, 3 BB in 24 IP. That's utterly dominant.

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=hancoc000eme

 

I hear you man. I have to imagine it's the health concerns - and not the SSS 2020 results that are impacting the slide? Might be some of the analytics on his spin rates and such too? Might be teams over thinking it.

[metafour]

Its analytics w/ Hancock. He doesn't fit some of the current pitching models. Teams don't appear to like RHP who rely on a changeup over a breaking ball as much anymore; and Hancock also throws more of a 2-seam fastball with lower spin than the "rising" fastball that models are advocating.

[Brownie19]

Its analytics w/ Hancock. He doesn't fit some of the current pitching models. Teams don't appear to like RHP who rely on a changeup over a breaking ball as much anymore; and Hancock also throws more of a 2-seam fastball with lower spin than the "rising" fastball that models are advocating.

 

this seems most plausible - and I mean - we can almost see those results (TJ Zeuch)

[P2F]

[Ray]

Almost a surety that we'll be able to get one of Veen, Meyer, or Gonzalez, and I'd personally prefer them in that order.

 

Although to be fair, even if this front office goes way off the board, I think they deserve a benefit of the doubt. Their drafting has been mostly fantastic. Logan Warmoth is looking like the biggest dud they've drafted. Other than that, Pearson, Groshans, Manoah seem like strong picks. I know people are down on TJ Zeuch here, but even he made the majors which is more than can be said for the rest of the 2016 1st rounders.

[BlueRocky]

Funnily enough, his 'mediocre' start has been so widely overblown by his 'just okay' 3.75 ERA. I mean, he had 11.33 K/BB in the 4 starts. 34 K, 3 BB in 24 IP. That's utterly dominant.

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=hancoc000eme

I hear you man. I have to imagine it's the health concerns - and not the SSS 2020 results that are impacting the slide? Might be some of the analytics on his spin rates and such too? Might be teams over thinking it.

 

The first four games Georgia didn’t face any particularly great competition, and sources closes to the team said Hancock was basically treating it like spring training while working on his breaking stuff, not leaning heavily on his plus changeup. I guess when the season is only 4 starts, things get blown way out.

 

The models like the spin rate and movement guys, but I also like the FB/CU with control guys. It tells me the guy is a pitcher and executing pitches, not just blowing stuff past guys. The makeup and mental aspect is so important to pitching and can’t be quantified by graphs and videos, that’s why teams have scouts and cross checkers scouting these kids in person and talking to the players, their coaches, their teammates, families, etc. That’s the stuff we don’t hear about and don’t show up on mock drafts.

 

And let’s not forget Hancock’s slider is actually pretty good, there’s a mix of 55 and 60 grades on it, and I’ve seen him use it effectively for Ks. His curve is an average pitch with potential, both pitches were developed with coaches at Georgia using rapsodo and edgertronic tech, he didn’t have those weapons refined coming out of HS. And his 6-4 frame really started to fill out in 2019, there’s still potential there.

Edited June 4, 2020 by BlueRocky

[Jimcanuck]

From what I've read the concern on Hancock is health and not the SSS 2020 performance. But then, is there really a reason to have more or less concern about Hancock's arm compared to any other pitcher in the draft? An arm can be f'ed up at any time.

 

I recall health concerns about Mize were floating round prior to the 2018 draft.

[Carlos Danger]

So, I lived in Port Orange, FL for apprx 18 yrs, all my buddies graduated from Spruce Creek High. I have a lot of friends who's kids go there now or have just graduated.

 

I sent a bunch of messages a while back trying to get the inside scoop on Zac. Is the dude a winner, attitude, his makeup, etc.

 

Carlos Danger is convinced that the Blue Jays should target Zac Veen as their #1 choice. Unfortunately, I don't think he will make it to them. However, if he does, take him!!

 

Now, that is for the Blue Jays.

 

In my Fantasy leagues I have the #1 pick in one league and #3 in another. I tend to shy away from High School players in Fantasy. However, for the Blue Jays, DO IT if you can!!

Edited June 4, 2020 by Carlos Danger

[glory]

I'm falling for the Veen hype. The video put me over the top. Between that and the fact that pitchers are risky as hell, I am on Team Veen.

[BlueRocky]

From what I've read the concern on Hancock is health and not the SSS 2020 performance. But then, is there really a reason to have more or less concern about Hancock's arm compared to any other pitcher in the draft? An arm can be f'ed up at any time.

 

I recall health concerns about Mize were floating round prior to the 2018 draft.

 

Hancock missed time last season from a lat injury, but he came back near the end. His injury was @ April-May 2019, and he only missed like 2-3 starts. The medicals shouldn’t be too out of the ordinary.

Edited June 4, 2020 by BlueRocky

[Ray]

Also seems to fit the model for recent prep position players. Hit first, high barrel%, and big exit velo. Not too dissimilar to Groshans and Bichette. Kind of reminds me of Kelenic coming out of the draft, but with more power and size.

[Orgfiller]

 

Man, that is one rich high school academy.

[jays4life19]

I'm still firmly on the NGonzo train. I watched a 1 min youtube video on him in December and was convinced he was the man for the Jays and i'm not about to change my mind now.

 

Gonzales4life19

[BlueRocky]

I'm falling for the Veen hype. The video put me over the top. Between that and the fact that pitchers are risky as hell, I am on Team Veen.

 

I’ve been on team Zac Veen for more than a month. But I won’t be upset if we end up with Gonzales, Meyers, or Hancock. If Austin Martin falls to us that would be perfect too.

[Jimcanuck]

I’ve been on team Zac Veen for more than a month. But I won’t be upset if we end up with Gonzales, Meyers, or Hancock. If Austin Martin falls to us that would be perfect too.

 

I would explode.

[Slade]

I’ve been on team Zac Veen for more than a month. But I won’t be upset if we end up with Gonzales, Meyers, or Hancock. If Austin Martin falls to us that would be perfect too.

 

What a dream scenario would that be if Austin Martin fell to us! I'm in the same thinking, Veen would be great but not going to be disappointed with the above college guys. I think I would be disappointed with a Demeters pick though.

[Carlos Danger]

I would explode.

 

Like jizz all over your computer screen? Explode in glee, projectile diarrhea? How would you explode?

[LGBJ29]

I’ve been on team Zac Veen for more than a month. But I won’t be upset if we end up with Gonzales, Meyers, or Hancock. If Austin Martin falls to us that would be perfect too.

 

Agreed, there's no bad pick out of that bunch, its a great crop. I would be underwhelmed if they reach a bit and take Detmers but I'd give them the benefit of the doubt. He's still solid just not as flashy.

[Brownie19]

Veen's pretty confident to say he's been compared to Bellinger and then say he doesn't play the game to be average like him.