We are in year 4 of the Shatkins era. How much time do you give them?

[Terminator]

Probably going to finish 4th for the 3rd year in a row after the WC appearance in '16. Cleared pretty much all the of the payroll off the books but for the Grichuk extension. Cultivated a consensus Top 3 Farm system but one that is highlighted by a generational talent that they inherited from the previous regime.

 

How long of a leash do you give Shatkins? If we aren't contending by which year, when would you pull the plug?

[Krylian]

I don't expect this team to sniff .500 until 2021 at best.

[jmomcc]

I would give them a pretty long leash because they didn't really get to start the rebuild until 2018 and weren't allowed to tear it down when they could have got maximum value. I also kind of see the sense in the decisions they make in terms of the guys they are making bets on. I also find the idea of the cleveland way (where they seemed to make a habit of getting pop up international guys and could develop pitching) being applied to a larger market. So, I lean favorable anyway. I'd give them a few more years.

[BTS]

Assuming Vlad is mashing, I'll be annoyed if they're not 0.500 in 2020 and legit good in 2021. I'll also be annoyed if they end up selling Smoak, Stroman, and Giles at the deadline, because I think that pretty much means they're punting 2020. We're seeing this year what it looks like when you make no effort to roster decent vets, and it isn't pretty:

 

SRF - sucks

Pannone - looked good for awhile, but actually still really sucks

Luciano - expected to suck, and sucks

Drury - shows potential, but in the present still sucks

Hernandez - sucks

McKinney - sucks to the extent that he somehow has zero redeeming qualities

Gurriel - sucked, got demoted because he went full Russ Adams

Alford - didn't make the team, and really sucks so it's a good thing

 

Of the 10 or so kids who we wanted to see play, it's just been Tellez (who looks like a 1-win DH) and Thornton (looks like a legit mid-rotation SP) who have been enjoyable to watch.

 

I don't buy in to the idea that you need to go scorched earth on the MLB squad to rebuild. There will always be chances for talented kids in AAA to earn a spot on the MLB roster. Trading all of the good vets and entering 2020 with a $75M team of Vlad, Biggio, and 15 Billy McKinneys and Teoscar Hernandezs with the odd vet thrown in would be a disaster.

[Terminator]

I voted 2021. They don't have to make the playoffs but I want to see a solid team on the field. That gives them two more trade deadlines and two more offseasons to simply field a solid team. I think that's pretty fair.

[Terminator]

Assuming Vlad is mashing, I'll be annoyed if they're not 0.500 in 2020 and legit good in 2021. I'll also be annoyed if they end up selling Smoak, Stroman, and Giles at the deadline, because I think that pretty much means they're punting 2020. We're seeing this year what it looks like when you make no effort to roster decent vets, and it isn't pretty:

 

SRF - sucks

Pannone - looked good for awhile, but actually still really sucks

Luciano - expected to suck, and sucks

Drury - shows potential, but in the present still sucks

Hernandez - sucks

McKinney - sucks to the extent that he somehow has zero redeeming qualities

Gurriel - sucked, got demoted because he went full Russ Adams

Alford - didn't make the team, and really sucks so it's a good thing

 

Of the 10 or so kids who we wanted to see play, it's just been Tellez (who looks like a 1-win DH) and Thornton (looks like a legit mid-rotation SP) who have been enjoyable to watch.

 

I don't buy in to the idea that you need to go scorched earth on the MLB squad to rebuild. There will always be chances for talented kids in AAA to earn a spot on the MLB roster. Trading all of the good vets and entering 2020 with a $75M team of Vlad, Biggio, and 15 Billy McKinneys and Teoscar Hernandezs with the odd vet thrown in would be a disaster.

 

Well said! Slightly surprised to see your timeline placed this soon but I'm in agreement. One year of scorched earth (which is this year), .500 next year, and then legit good in 2021.

[Terminator]

I don't expect this team to sniff .500 until 2021 at best.

 

I hope they are sniffing it next year.

[BTS]

Well said! Slightly surprised to see your timeline placed this soon but I'm in agreement. One year of scorched earth (which is this year), .500 next year, and then legit good in 2021.

 

I realize I'm ranting at this point, but I really hate everyone who whines in March that vets are making the team because 'they just want to watch the kids play'. You know who, by and large, have made this team completely unwatchable? The kids. Some of the most entertaining players to watch? Giles, Stro, Shoemaker, Smoak, Galvis, and Sogard. There is absolutely nothing entertaining about watching a team of bad young players get overmatched at the MLB level as the losses pile up.

[jmomcc]

I realize I'm ranting at this point, but I really hate everyone who whines in March that vets are making the team because 'they just want to watch the kids play'? You know who, by and large, have made this team completely unwatchable? The kids. Some of the most entertaining players to watch? Giles, Stro, Shoemaker, Smoak, Galvis, and Sogard. There is absolutely nothing entertaining about watching a team of bad young players get overmatched at the MLB level as the losses pile up.

 

A rebuilding process isn't supposed to be entertaining. It's supposed to be pretty s***** and you half check out until they are good again. Only maniacs are watching these games at all.

 

I totally agree on the 'let the kids play' thing. These games are basically free. There is no expectation to win. Anyone who is marginal but could be a guy under the best case scenario should play, any vet who will have trade value should play and kids who might be on the next good team should play. The only guy who I thought was a waste of time was Sogard.. but now he turns out to be the second coming of Ted Williams so maybe he is tradeable.

[Terminator]

I realize I'm ranting at this point, but I really hate everyone who whines in March that vets are making the team because 'they just want to watch the kids play'? You know who, by and large, have made this team completely unwatchable? The kids. Some of the most entertaining players to watch? Giles, Stro, Shoemaker, Smoak, Galvis, and Sogard. There is absolutely nothing entertaining about watching a team of bad young players get overmatched at the MLB level as the losses pile up.

 

Yeah for sure. Plus, the market was so down there were definitely deals to be had. A better SP instead of Richard, another late inning reliever, and an OF would have done wonders for the team instead of cheaping out on all three positions.

 

As for the vets we currently have that you mentioned in your previous post: I'd try like hell to extend Stroman and Giles on team friendly deals right now. Our rotation and bullpen suck and we don't have a ton in the pipeline. Plus, both guys are young enough that a 3 to 4 year extension should lock them up for their prime years and give us the chance to be decent while the Vlad, Bo, Jansen, Biggio, Pearson core enters into their prime. Smoak I could go either way. He's solid but he's entering his decline years and guys like him are pretty cheap in FA. That said, he probably doesn't net much in a trade anyway. He'd probably sign a 1 or 2 year extension for peanuts again after seeing this market.

[Pendleton]

If we don't start to see some positive signs by next season, I don't think the leash would be long heading into 2021 Edited May 7, 2019 by Pendleton

[Terminator]

A rebuilding process isn't supposed to be entertaining. It's supposed to be pretty s***** and you half check out until they are good again. Only maniacs are watching these games at all.

 

I totally agree on the 'let the kids play' thing. These games are basically free. There is no expectation to win. Anyone who is marginal but could be a guy under the best case scenario should play, any vet who will have trade value should play and kids who might be on the next good team should play. The only guy who I thought was a waste of time was Sogard.. but now he turns out to be the second coming of Ted Williams so maybe he is tradeable.

 

I'll give them this year but there's no reason to have to go through this again. See what slop among the Teoscars and Gurriel's of the team sticks, at this point it doesn't look like much is going to, and then plug the holes accordingly next year with reasonable FA deals.

[jmomcc]

I'll give them this year but there's no reason to have to go through this again. See what slop among the Teoscars and Gurriel's of the team sticks, at this point it doesn't look like much is going to, and then plug the holes accordingly next year with reasonable FA deals.

 

Are these free agents still going to be good when we are expected to be good? Otherwise, I'd rather just cycle through some more slop and see what cheap gems can be had.

 

It obviously depends on the free agents of course.

[Bobthe4th]

I realize I'm ranting at this point, but I really hate everyone who whines in March that vets are making the team because 'they just want to watch the kids play'? You know who, by and large, have made this team completely unwatchable? The kids. Some of the most entertaining players to watch? Giles, Stro, Shoemaker, Smoak, Galvis, and Sogard. There is absolutely nothing entertaining about watching a team of bad young players get overmatched at the MLB level as the losses pile up.

 

TBF what's even worse is watching s*** like Brito and Hanson. Sogard is the same category of player but he has been really good so far - it's not going to last though and we all know it.

 

At least if a prospect catches lightning in a bottle, you can dream about them sticking. I see this year as all about working out who can be a contributor in the years to come, so those 3 players are a waste of time IMO. Even if Sogard somehow keeps up his level of play (he won't) we're not going to trade him for anything significant.

 

The other players you mentioned are different because they are all pretty good (Smoak / Galvis / Shoemaker) to very good (Giles / maybe Stroman) and I agree that scorched earth and trade everyone isn't necessary or even the optimum tactic.

[glory]

Rogers will force them to win either in 2020 or 2021. No way they let the attendance decline even further.

 

I'm with BTS. I was all for letting the young kids play, but as the off season played out, we saw good players get traded for nothing, free agents who wanted more than the damn minimum sitting out, etc. The Jays could have easily improved the big league roster with cheap vets without sacrificing the farm system. Maybe you don't give 500 plate appearances to Tesocar, Drury, McKinney, etc, in that scenario, but boo freakin hoo. I'm also in the minority who thinks the extension to Grichuk was too soon, and he's not good enough to warrant it, but I was proven wrong with Smoak so hopefully that ends up being the case here as well.

 

I'll let them try to win with Vlad. By the end of 2025, this team better than at least 2 playoff appearances, if not more.

[P2F]

I realize I'm ranting at this point, but I really hate everyone who whines in March that vets are making the team because 'they just want to watch the kids play'. You know who, by and large, have made this team completely unwatchable? The kids. Some of the most entertaining players to watch? Giles, Stro, Shoemaker, Smoak, Galvis, and Sogard. There is absolutely nothing entertaining about watching a team of bad young players get overmatched at the MLB level as the losses pile up.

 

This perfectly summarizes my feelings on this matter.

[Bobthe4th]

I'll give them this year but there's no reason to have to go through this again. See what slop among the Teoscars and Gurriel's of the team sticks, at this point it doesn't look like much is going to, and then plug the holes accordingly next year with reasonable FA deals.

 

That's not quite true though. We all assume people like Jansen and Vlad will be good, but we're going to need at least a few other prospects to show signs of life this year otherwise there are too many holes IMO. Hopefully we can get a few long term assets out of people like Tellez, Merryweather, Biggio, Hernandez, Gurriel, Bichette, even Pompey.

[Pendleton]

I realize I'm ranting at this point, but I really hate everyone who whines in March that vets are making the team because 'they just want to watch the kids play'. You know who, by and large, have made this team completely unwatchable? The kids. Some of the most entertaining players to watch? Giles, Stro, Shoemaker, Smoak, Galvis, and Sogard. There is absolutely nothing entertaining about watching a team of bad young players get overmatched at the MLB level as the losses pile up.

 

Plus given the way free agency has been trending, it wouldn't have been tough to put together a much more competitive roster without breaking the bank.

[BTS]

I'll give them this year but there's no reason to have to go through this again. See what slop among the Teoscars and Gurriel's of the team sticks, at this point it doesn't look like much is going to, and then plug the holes accordingly next year with reasonable FA deals.

 

If everything we've seen this year holds (with, I'm assuming, Jansen and Vlad turning it around), next year's team should look something like:

 

C - Jansen

1B - Smoak

2B - Biggio

3B - Vlad

SS - Galvis

CF - Grichuk

LF - ???

RF - ???

DH - Tellez

Bench - Maile, Gurriel

 

SP - Stroman

SP -

SP -

SP - Thornton

SP - Shoemaker

 

With a loaded farm, and tons of payroll space, that's a team you add to, and not with Clayton Richards and Socrates Britos. See if Bumgarner, Cole, Keuchel or Strasburg will take your money. Take a look at Puig, Ozuna, And JDM for the OF.

 

Even it's only a 0.500 team in 2020, you still have an army of prospects knocking on the door, with guys like Bichette and Pearson maybe ready to help in 2020 and waves coming after them.

[Terminator]

That's not quite true though. We all assume people like Jansen and Vlad will be good, but we're going to need at least a few other prospects to show signs of life this year otherwise there are too many holes IMO. Hopefully we can get a few long term assets out of people like Tellez, Merryweather, Biggio, Hernandez, Gurriel, Bichette, even Pompey.

 

f*** that. We could have done it this year. Keep Pillar, bring in a better SP than dumpster diving for Richard and bring in a better late inning reliever than Bud Norris. That replaces like 3 negative WAR or so with like 4 to 5 positive WAR. We probably get close to like 78-80 wins instead of 70.

[jmomcc]

Rogers will force them to win either in 2020 or 2021. No way they let the attendance decline even further.

 

I'm with BTS. I was all for letting the young kids play, but as the off season played out, we saw good players get traded for nothing, free agents who wanted more than the damn minimum sitting out, etc. The Jays could have easily improved the big league roster with cheap vets without sacrificing the farm system. Maybe you don't give 500 plate appearances to Tesocar, Drury, McKinney, etc, in that scenario, but boo freakin hoo. I'm also in the minority who thinks the extension to Grichuk was too soon, and he's not good enough to warrant it, but I was proven wrong with Smoak so hopefully that ends up being the case here as well.

 

I'll let them try to win with Vlad. By the end of 2025, this team better than at least 2 playoff appearances, if not more.

 

What's the point of signing decent vets on free agent contracts though? Is it just to make watching the jays this season more fun?

 

I'd guess letting guys like Teoscar and Drury play (and whoever fits that bill next year) is more likely to lead to winning teams when we plan to be good. One hit gives you a cost controlled regular. Also, the good thing about letting these guys play is that a whole season gives you plenty of sample size to cut bait, and give new guys a chance, thus increasing the chances of landing one or two cost controlled regulars.

 

I'll be pissed if they sacrifice that to be slightly better in the short term.

[DigitalRock]

A couple more years but def some questionable moves so far.

[Olerud363]

I realize I'm ranting at this point, but I really hate everyone who whines in March that vets are making the team because 'they just want to watch the kids play'. You know who, by and large, have made this team completely unwatchable? The kids. Some of the most entertaining players to watch? Giles, Stro, Shoemaker, Smoak, Galvis, and Sogard. There is absolutely nothing entertaining about watching a team of bad young players get overmatched at the MLB level as the losses pile up.

 

I can't ever remember a group of young players collectively playing this bad. I don't know what to make of it. This wave of young players consists of Guerrero, Bichette, Biggio, Jansen, Tellez, Gurriel, McKinney, Hernandez and Alford.

 

Let's say the following happens.

 

a) Guerrero and Jansen reverse their small sample size disaster and are 92% of what we expect.

Bichette and Biggio get off on the right foot

c) Tellez stays steady

d) Out of Gurriel, McKinney and Hernandez, someone becomes slightly below average (like a .270 .310 .430 hitter).

e) forget Alford, Todd was right.

 

If the above happen all of sudden that's an enjoyable young team.

[BTS]

What's the point of signing decent vets on free agent contracts though? Is it just to make watching the jays this season more fun?

 

I'd guess letting guys like Teoscar and Drury play (and whoever fits that bill next year) is more likely to lead to winning teams when we plan to be good. One hit gives you a cost controlled regular. Also, the good thing about letting these guys play is that a whole season gives you plenty of sample size to cut bait, and give new guys a chance, thus increasing the chances of landing one or two cost controlled regulars.

 

I'll be pissed if they sacrifice that to be slightly better in the short term.

 

I just disagree with the premise that anything is sacrificed by adding a few decent vets. If the team had signed, say, Brantley and Morton and kept Pillar, what's the downside? We'd have seen niether of Brito and Hanson, and probably not signed Buchholz.

[jmomcc]

I can't ever remember a group of young players collectively playing this bad. I don't know what to make of it. This wave of young players consists of Guerrero, Bichette, Biggio, Jansen, Tellez, Gurriel, McKinney, Hernandez and Alford.

 

Let's say the following happens.

 

a) Guerrero and Jansen reverse their small sample size disaster and are 92% of what we expect.

Bichette and Biggio get off on the right foot

c) Tellez stays steady

d) Out of Gurriel, McKinney and Hernandez, someone becomes slightly below average (like a .270 .310 .430 hitter).

e) forget Alford, Todd was right.

 

If the above happen all of sudden that's an enjoyable young team.

 

I have to see 20 more games of Vlad and Jansen hitting ground balls and I'm going to start blaming our new hitting coach.. lol. I know that's crazy but Jansen looks so different its worrisome.

[jmomcc]

I just disagree with the premise that anything is sacrificed by adding a few decent vets. If the team had signed, say, Brantley and Morton and kept Pillar, what's the downside? We'd have seen niether of Brito and Hanson, and probably not signed Buchholz.

 

You lose the ability to give all those plate appearances to marginal dudes and thus make a decision on them and decide if they could be a regular. It's a real low key thing but I think its useful in terms of winning down the road. I think you could do what you are saying but it's not as optimal imo.

[Bobthe4th]

f*** that. We could have done it this year. Keep Pillar, bring in a better SP than dumpster diving for Richard and bring in a better late inning reliever than Bud Norris. That replaces like 3 negative WAR or so with like 4 to 5 positive WAR. We probably get close to like 78-80 wins instead of 70.

 

I don't think that's true, but even if it was - I don't see the point of acquiring multiple vets to try to get a better chance of .500. This season developing our own prospects is more important IMO. If none (or hardly any of them) develop then I don't see the problem with trying the same strategy again next year with the addition of whatever prospects we get from trading Giles / Smoak.

 

We are not a good team, and until some of the prospects become good players then signing a handful of vets isn't going to make us into contenders.

[BlueRocky]

Record and standings are meaningless numbers during a rebuild, but this team need to be more watchable next year.

If we see waves of young players on their way up, and I expect the core is being added to without solely relying on bargain basement offseason deals, and the likes of Brito/Hanson types taking all the playing time. Then those are good signs next offseason.

 

They might not win 81 games in 2020, but please make it more watchable. When I rather turn on the Lansing Lugnuts or Buffalo Bisons after work and there’s a Blue Jays game recorded on my PVR that’s an issue.

 

The Tampa Bay Rays are an example of how you can make smart trades, call up young players, move the old guys off the ledger without turning into a dumpster fire for 5 seasons. This should be at least an 80 win team by 2021, but I would give until 2022 before reconsidering the Shatkins management regime simply because I have no idea where the future pitching is going to come from.

 

They have to solve the pitching issue. If guys like Stro-chez or Giles refuse to extend on reasonable deals they have to acquire meaningful assets for them and not let their value rot. I’m not saying trade all the vets, but when your biggest need is young pitching, yet your only valuable trade chips are also pitchers in their prime entering last year of arbitration, they’re stuck between a rock and a hard place. They will have to get creative.

 

The payroll also needs to be supportive during this rebuild. In this current market, it’s not too hard to get quality vets to complement the core without spending ridiculous money. I hope that remains the case and Rogers open their wallet in 2021-2022.

[BTS]

You lose the ability to give all those plate appearances to marginal dudes and thus make a decision on them and decide if they could be a regular. It's a real low key thing but I think its useful in terms of winning down the road. I think you could do what you are saying but it's not as optimal imo.

 

We're already cycling through a dozen replacement-level players. The idea that adding 3 good players in the offseason would have been bad because we'd have 3 fewer spots to devote to replacement level players doesn't make much sense to me. If Charlie Morton is here instead of Clay Buchholz and the team sees an intriguing arm on the waiver they want to look at, they just option Pannone. Or option Mayza. Or DFA Law. Intriguing OF hits the wire and Brantley is here instead of Brito? Option McKinney or Hernandez.

[Dick_Pole]

For those who are on the prospect bandwagon, which one of the team's non-prospects would have been blocked by good veteran players? That good players other than Guerrero aren't even up yet. This is just filler. This team has a distinct 1977 feel to it that could have been totally avoidable.

 

The argument about a free season to suck all you want is asinine. Every loss, every bad season, the franchise takes a credibility hit.