Around Baseball 2019

[glory]

Gray to the Reds (+ extension) is a done deal.

 

Shed Long going to the M's (because DiPoto is bored).

 

Josh Stowers + a comp pick in the 30's going to the Yankees.

[Orgfiller]

I like this deal a lot more for the Reds with the extension being announced. The Yankees basically gain two comp. round picks in Stowers and the 30s pick, which is much better than they would make out losing Gray to free agency, and the Mariners inexplicably come out of nowhere to gain a 50 FV prospect with Cano and Jean Segura gone. I gotta say, I kind of like it for all teams involved.

 

The Reds are also acquiring intriguing generic Yankees SP prospect Reiver Sanmartin, very nice.

[TheHurl]

That sounds like Bret Sayre.

 

He hates pitchers even more than I do.

[TheHurl]

I like this deal a lot more for the Reds with the extension being announced. The Yankees basically gain two comp. round picks in Stowers and the 30s pick, which is much better than they would make out losing Gray to free agency, and the Mariners inexplicably come out of nowhere to gain a 50 FV prospect with Cano and Jean Segura gone. I gotta say, I kind of like it for all teams involved.

 

The Reds are also acquiring intriguing generic Yankees SP prospect Reiver Sanmartin, very nice.

 

Reds had a glut of infielders ahead of Long and now he goes to Seattle where he has Dee Gordon, Negron and Timmy Lopes in line for time at 2B...so I assume the Mariners will move him to LF.

[Boxcar]

Guess the prospect expert who wrote this in November:

 

Paddack sure came back into dynasty consciousness quickly. Don’t let the stats fool you; he’s pretty unlikely to be more than a solid SP4 in a solid pitcher’s park. But he’s pretty close to the majors at this point and given his age, the Padres won’t hold him down for long in 2019 if there’s an opening and he’s upright. Don’t expect more than 2018 Mike Fiers and you may not be disappointed.

 

[Boxcar]

Reds had a glut of infielders ahead of Long and now he goes to Seattle where he has Dee Gordon, Negron and Timmy Lopes in line for time at 2B...so I assume the Mariners will move him to LF.

 

Shed Long to f***ing Seattle.

 

Ughhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh

[BTS]

That sounds like Bret Sayre.

 

You got it!

[Orgfiller]

Reds had a glut of infielders ahead of Long and now he goes to Seattle where he has Dee Gordon, Negron and Timmy Lopes in line for time at 2B...so I assume the Mariners will move him to LF.

 

Lmao

[Slade]

Cashman just doesn't lose, a 1st round pick and and two decent prospects for a guy that New York didn't even want.

[Ray]

Cashman just doesn't lose, a 1st round pick and and two decent prospects for a guy that New York didn't even want.

 

The Yankees only end up getting a comp pick and Josh Stowers. Shed Long is going to Seatle.

 

I actually think the Reds came out ahead here. Sonny Gray is not as bad as he was last year, and they got him signed to a 4 year deal too.

[glory]

I agree everyone got a good deal here. Reds get four years of Gray at a good price, Yankees get a lotto ticket and a draft pick in the 30's for a player they didn't even want, and the M's get a good IF prospect. Seems like everyone wins.

[Boxcar]

I agree everyone got a good deal here. Reds get four years of Gray at a good price, Yankees get a lotto ticket and a draft pick in the 30's for a player they didn't even want, and the M's get a good IF prospect. Seems like everyone wins.

 

Everyone but Sonny Gray because a) he has to play for the Reds for the next 4 years and in a more literal sense he doesn't win because he suxxxxxxxx

[glory]

Everyone but Sonny Gray because a) he has to play for the Reds for the next 4 years and in a more literal sense he doesn't win because he suxxxxxxxx

 

Well I don't necessarily agree with anything the Reds have done this winter. They won't be contending any time soon. But from a value standpoint, getting Gray at 4/38 is a good contract assuming he resembles anything close to what he was prior to 2018. They obviously believe he can.

 

I'd rate the winners as Yankees (for getting what they did for a player they pretty much told everyone they weren't keeping), M's, and Reds in that order, but I think everyone got what they wanted. The Reds obviously took the biggest risk so they have the most to lose.

[Ray]

2019 Orioles ZIPS projections: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2019-zips-projections-baltimore-orioles/

[BTS]

How does Asdrubal Cabrera, coming off a 2.7 fWAR season and projected to be at least average again next year, only get 3.5M?

 

I would have been content with him getting like 2/15 from Shatkins.

[glory]

How does Asdrubal Cabrera, coming off a 2.7 fWAR season and projected to be at least average again next year, only get 3.5M?

 

I would have been content with him getting like 2/15 from Shatkins.

 

Now we know why Aledmys only got Thornton back.

[Terminator]

How does Asdrubal Cabrera, coming off a 2.7 fWAR season and projected to be at least average again next year, only get 3.5M?

 

I would have been content with him getting like 2/15 from Shatkins.

 

Yeah for sure. Would love to see the Jays make a play for a guy like Marwin G now or something if UT guys are this cheap.

[BTS]

Now we know why Aledmys only got Thornton back.

 

Yeah, good point. I'll be a bit annoyed if the team doesn't add an MLB infielder at these rates. There isn't an excuse for being terrible anymore when average MLB players are available for <5M on 1-year deals.

[Terminator]

Yeah, good point. I'll be a bit annoyed if the team doesn't add an MLB infielder at these rates. There isn't an excuse for being terrible anymore when average MLB players are available for <5M on 1-year deals.

 

Right now the winner of the Sogard/Urena ST battle is likely making the team and will end up with way more PAs than they should. It makes a lot of sense to make a play for Marwin, Josh Harrison, Derek Dietrech or someone else like that if it's only going to cost the team a 1 year deal.

[glory]

Yeah don’t think the Jays want anyone long term who will block any of their infielders, hence why Sogard was signed.

[Ray]

Nick Markakis back to ATL on a $6M deal.

 

Really don't get why they're not adding more to the team. I doubt they make the playoffs as is.

[jaysblue]

How does Asdrubal Cabrera, coming off a 2.7 fWAR season and projected to be at least average again next year, only get 3.5M?

 

I would have been content with him getting like 2/15 from Shatkins.

 

Unbelievable! I can't believe it. For sure he could have got like $7-8M on a one-year deal at the very least.

[Slade]

Nick Markakis back to ATL on a $6M deal.

 

Really don't get why they're not adding more to the team. I doubt they make the playoffs as is.

 

Other than more bullpen help, what more do they need? Donaldson will be a huge addition to that lineup if he stays healthy and they have a lot more young players coming.

 

Marwin Gonzalez might be a good fit but still can't see him making a huge difference.

[43211234]

Nick Markakis back to ATL on a $6M deal.

 

Really don't get why they're not adding more to the team. I doubt they make the playoffs as is.

 

I wonder if there are still enough dinosaurs around in ~10 years that he gets some HOF votes if he makes it to 3000 hits. Very possible for him to get there. At 2237 now at age 35.

[Krylian]

I wonder if there are still enough dinosaurs around in ~10 years that he gets some HOF votes if he makes it to 3000 hits. Very possible for him to get there. At 2237 now at age 35.

 

I'd be pretty surprised if he could manage 3000. At 2237, the production has to stay pretty high and he needs to stay healthy for quite a few more years. At 35 now, is that likely?

[Brownie19]

I wonder if there are still enough dinosaurs around in ~10 years that he gets some HOF votes if he makes it to 3000 hits. Very possible for him to get there. At 2237 now at age 35.

 

I mean anything is possible now that Baines got in, but he's probably going to finish his career with 33-35 career WAR.

[Brownie19]

How does Asdrubal Cabrera, coming off a 2.7 fWAR season and projected to be at least average again next year, only get 3.5M?

 

I would have been content with him getting like 2/15 from Shatkins.

 

Teams must be well ahead of fans/analysts in terms of their valuations. $/WAR dropping big time?

 

an infielder who's turning 34 and likely to give you 1.5 - 2 WAR simply isn't worth much at all these days for whatever reason.

[glory]

Teams must be well ahead of fans/analysts in terms of their valuations. $/WAR dropping big time?

 

Yeah, I think that has to change. No way 1 WAR = ~$8m anymore. You can get 1 WAR players practically on minor league deals nowadays. No one values them.

[Terminator]

I wonder if there are still enough dinosaurs around in ~10 years that he gets some HOF votes if he makes it to 3000 hits. Very possible for him to get there. At 2237 now at age 35.

 

Bill James has some formula that gives Markakis a 41% chance to make it to 3000 although he said by eyeballing it he would put the percentage much lower.

 

His contract situation is going to play a factor. If he had some fat deal in place that guaranteed him PT he'd have a better shot but in today's market one bad year at this point and hes signing minor league deals.

[Ray]

Other than more bullpen help, what more do they need? Donaldson will be a huge addition to that lineup if he stays healthy and they have a lot more young players coming.

 

Marwin Gonzalez might be a good fit but still can't see him making a huge difference.

 

It's more that they could've done better than Markakis in RF, who drastically overachieved last season. He doesn't really move the needle. Use that $6M towards someone who'll make a difference, like AJ Pollock.