General 2019 Blue Jays Discussion Thread

[Brownie19]

Not me. We already have number 3, 4, 5 pitchers in our system. Odorizzi isn't a number 1 or 2 and without those the Jays are a fourth place team. Our Farm is now a bottom half to bottom third system as all the better players are now on the major league roster. So a weak farm, no ace or even a # 2 starter - a bullpen with ONE true shutdown arm we're looking to trade for a middling prospect or two. And basically three players who look like they can be good hitters. I understand signing quality number 3 pitchers to stabilize the rotation but we're not winning jack squat for 3 years so why give up draft pick compensation for 3 losing years?

 

You give up the #2 pick if you're a 95 win team and you think he can put you over the top but throwing away a high pick for a solid #3 - meh.

 

Do you even follow the Blue Jays sir? Our farm system remains very strong.

Edited November 22, 2019 by Brownie19

[AintNoThang]

Olerud363 remains the most underrated poster on this forum.

 

Olerud was an underrated player, but going off this post, he's an overrated poster.

[Ray]

Not me. We already have number 3, 4, 5 pitchers in our system. Odorizzi isn't a number 1 or 2 and without those the Jays are a fourth place team. Our Farm is now a bottom half to bottom third system as all the better players are now on the major league roster. So a weak farm, no ace or even a # 2 starter - a bullpen with ONE true shutdown arm we're looking to trade for a middling prospect or two. And basically three players who look like they can be good hitters. I understand signing quality number 3 pitchers to stabilize the rotation but we're not winning jack squat for 3 years so why give up draft pick compensation for 3 losing years?

 

You give up the #2 pick if you're a 95 win team and you think he can put you over the top but throwing away a high pick for a solid #3 - meh.

 

3 years from now, Cavan, Vlad, Bo, Jansen, etc are all gonna be in their arbitration years. Kinda quells the whole theory of having a "cheap, young, core" when said core is getting expensive.

 

Now is exactly the time to be proactive and add veterans on 2-4 year contracts. There's next to nothing on the books. The depressed free agent market for mid-tier players makes it even more sensible.

[TheHurl]

Back to our conversation about the value of the TV contract. The CFL just re-upped with for $50M a year. CFL average viewership is a right around that of an average Jays season. CFL contract is for 95 games, whereas the Jays is something like 190. Then there are the obvious differences, (Demographics, CFL audience is more spread out, whereas the Jays audience is 65% Ontario...specific days of the week vs everyday of the week) but I think you could safely say that the Jays TV contract is worth about $75M+ a year.

[The Iceman]

3 years from now, Cavan, Vlad, Bo, Jansen, etc are all gonna be in their arbitration years. Kinda quells the whole theory of having a "cheap, young, core" when said core is getting expensive.

 

Now is exactly the time to be proactive and add veterans on 2-4 year contracts. There's next to nothing on the books. The depressed free agent market for mid-tier players makes it even more sensible.[/quote This managements biggest FA deal has been.....Kendry Morales

 

Can't wait for the brilliant thinkers to come up with their next target.

[saskjayfan]

3 years from now, Cavan, Vlad, Bo, Jansen, etc are all gonna be in their arbitration years. Kinda quells the whole theory of having a "cheap, young, core" when said core is getting expensive.

 

Now is exactly the time to be proactive and add veterans on 2-4 year contracts. There's next to nothing on the books. The depressed free agent market for mid-tier players makes it even more sensible.[/quote This managements biggest FA deal has been.....Kendry Morales

 

Can't wait for the brilliant thinkers to come up with their next target.

 

Exactly. As much as it pains me, I actually like Jim's idea to front load contracts. If Wheeler is the guy you want, and I'm not saying he should be and he's going to get 5 and 100 you could offer 30, 25, and 3 at 15. Once the kids start hitting arbitration, you're saving 5 mil a year on Wheeler. Spending 40 or 50 mil on several vets on short term contracts doesn't appeal to me. Sure you can flip them for some sort of prospect, but nothing fantastic. I'd rather sign one or two guys to long term contracts that will make a difference than add a handful of chase andersons.

[Spanky99]

Love this blurb, by a Fantrax fantasy writer...

 

https://www.fantrax.com/news/mlb/fantasy-columns/ynn9xckhk3760kus

 

Third Base

 

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - Breakout

 

Despite not having a spot on the Opening Day roster, Blue Jay's third baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. was a top-50 pick in drafts. Consistently going between fellow third basemen Anthony Rendon and Eugenio Suarez, Guerrero’s season went much differently than his counterparts with a .272/.338/.433 slash line with 15 home runs.

 

The same way we looked at Hoskins and realized he was putting the ball too high in the air, Guerrero hit too many ground balls. While that might not be such a problem for speedier players, Guerrero’s legs aren’t going to be the reason he hits into a good BABIP. The 6.7-degree launch angle gave Guerrero a 49.6% ground ball rate. In 2018, Juan Soto burst onto the scene and hit the ball into the ground 53.7% of the time doing it. So, if you think that a ground ball rate is going to limit Guerrero’s upside going into next season, you might be making a big mistake. Launch angle is something that can be adjusted faster than most metrics. Players know this, coaches know this, and adjustments are made.

 

One thing we do know, Guerrero can hit the ball hard. When looking at batters that hit the ball over 110 mph, Guerrero ranks 14th in baseball with 29 such batted balls. Raise that exit velocity to 115, and he leads all of baseball with eight. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is only 20 years old. With experience and age will come more consistency. Given his pedigree and skill set, I’m banking on breakout sophomore season.

[Barkerfan23]

 

Exactly. As much as it pains me, I actually like Jim's idea to front load contracts. If Wheeler is the guy you want, and I'm not saying he should be and he's going to get 5 and 100 you could offer 30, 25, and 3 at 15. Once the kids start hitting arbitration, you're saving 5 mil a year on Wheeler. Spending 40 or 50 mil on several vets on short term contracts doesn't appeal to me. Sure you can flip them for some sort of prospect, but nothing fantastic. I'd rather sign one or two guys to long term contracts that will make a difference than add a handful of chase andersons.

 

But have you looked at black Friday deals like Jordan Lyles. Listen to Shapiros bot toy Ben Nicholson Smith. He will enlighten you on the great bargains

 

As I see it we have two choices

 

Sign 8 to 10 players like Jaime Garcia for 50 to 60 million. Rehab projects.

 

Or sign 2 really good pitchers

 

Atkins is more qaunatatively driven. 8 is better than 2 therefore it is the better deal. Think about it 8 starters on minor league deals at least two or three will have 2 war seasons and then you can flip them for rule 5 candidates or random 26 year olds in AAA

 

Fun fun fun

[Barkerfan23]

How long before Atkins is on Hoarders talking about how a can of alphabet soup from 1986 is still good

[Grant77]

Can we wait until some of the elite pitchers are actually off the board before criticizing the FO? There's plenty of reason to believe they didn't even think Gibson was an upgrade. I'm sure they know the price tag for all of these guys and have a plan.

[EZe]

Need to be creative with the capital available. Approach Cole with a heavy front loaded long term deal; player opt out after year 2.

[jaysblue]

Need to be creative with the capital available. Approach Cole with a heavy front loaded long term deal; player opt out after year 2.

 

Why would Cole want to come here? Let's be realistic.

[EZe]

Why would Cole want to come here? Let's be realistic.

 

Believe in yourself, believe in your city. Believe in human nature taking the highest AAV and total contract value in history with the ability to go somewhere else after a year and a half.

[Abomination]

Need to be creative with the capital available. Approach Cole with a heavy front loaded long term deal; player opt out after year 2.

 

Why would we give him an opt out after year 2, just when we'd probably need him the most?

[ColdPint]

Why would we give him an opt out after year 2, just when we'd probably need him the most?

 

And why would we allow him to walk after year 2 after getting the benefit of the heavily front loaded contract to go get more elsewhere? That’s the whole point of front loading, so you have financial flexibility in the later years.

[EZe]

Why would we give him an opt out after year 2, just when we'd probably need him the most?

 

1. It could be the only way he'd come here.

2. There's the possibility he enjoys it here and/or the team is competitive.

3. If not, flip the asset for something in return at the higher stakes table.

[Carlos Danger]

1. It could be the only way he'd come here.

2. There's the possibility he enjoys it here and/or the team is competitive.

3. If not, flip the asset for something in return at the higher stakes table.

 

Isn't he a Boras client? I would assume he would have a no trade clause... I don't see that happening with a Boras client and Cole unless the AAV was insanely high..

Edited November 30, 2019 by Carlos Danger

[Jimcanuck]

Cole grew up 5 miles from the Anaheim Angels stadium and the Angels need pitching.

 

Jays would need to outbid the Angels by a fair bit. Highly doubtful.

[Abomination]

1. It could be the only way he'd come here.

2. There's the possibility he enjoys it here and/or the team is competitive.

3. If not, flip the asset for something in return at the higher stakes table.

 

1. Then there's no reason to sign him. It has to work for us too.

2. He'd still opt out and try to re-sign or add additional years or something. Unless he's stinking it up, in which case there'd be no difference.

3. What exactly is the higher stakes table (and I'm assuming by flip you don't mean trade, for obvious reasons).

[Rusty_Savage]

I mean if you wanted to give him an opt out, you could structure the deal like this:

 

Year 1 - $45 million

Year 2 - $25 million

Year 3 - $37.5 million

Year 4 - 37.5 million

Year 5 - $40 million

Year 6 - $30 million

Year 7 - $25 million

 

That's 7/240 and you give him the option to opt out after year 2.

 

But it's not happening

[Jimcanuck]

The other way to approach this is, take the bet that Pearson will be an ace. Jays have plenty of back end options. With this bet, the need is #2, #3 starters.

 

No need for taking on the risk, $$$, and term associated with a Cole.

 

It's making a bet, but not a bad bet to make in the Jays situation. No guarantees in baseball, either that Cole will be an ace when the Jays need him to be one, or that Pearson will develop to a front line starter.

 

Also noting the 1st two years of a Cole contract likely wasted.

[THANOS]

The other way to approach this is, take the bet that Pearson will be an ace. Jays have plenty of back end options. With this bet, the need is #2, #3 starters.

 

No need for taking on the risk, $$$, and term associated with a Cole.

 

It's making a bet, but not a bad bet to make in the Jays situation. No guarantees in baseball, either that Cole will be an ace when the Jays need him to be one, or that Pearson will develop to a front line starter.

 

Also noting the 1st two years of a Cole contract likely wasted.

 

My preferred moves under that assumption is to sign Wheeler and trade for Jon Gray. Then we can hope Gray turns into something similar to Gerrit Cole away from Colorado and their dumb FO and awful pitching conditions.

[Jimcanuck]

My preferred moves under that assumption is to sign Wheeler and trade for Jon Gray. Then we can hope Gray turns into something similar to Gerrit Cole away from Colorado and their dumb FO and awful pitching conditions.

 

Not a bad option at all, front load Wheeler a 4 year guarantee plus 1 club option year, give him 75% of the money in the first two years.

[THANOS]

Not a bad option at all, front load Wheeler a 4 year guarantee plus 1 club option year, give him 75% of the money in the first two years.

 

Great idea!! Love all of that. Would try and extend Gray immediately as well. Easier to extend a 3 WAR pitcher than a 5-6 WAR if he were to hit the rare high outcome of becoming another Cole.

[RobinThicc]

[jays4life19]

Bummer.

[Bobthe4th]

 

This is potentially really bad news. The one thing the front office unquestionably has done well with is drafting.

[glory]

Damn. Sanders leaving is a huge loss. The Jays drafting since he took over has been very good.

[Ray]

Sanders wasn't in the organization in 2016 when we drafted Bichette and Biggio. That's looking like a great draft that could get even better if Zeuch becomes anything.

[Orgfiller]

Good front offices lose/get poached of valuable personnel all the time, this obviously isn't ideal but if the FO is any good then the expectation should be that someone just as valuable will take their place.