General 2019 Blue Jays Discussion Thread

[tbad]

Uhhhhhhhhh

[keggy]

Well - he was coming off seasons of 3.0, 2.2, 1.5 and 2.1 WAR and entering his prime (ages 28-30). I suspect there were positive signs of a potential breakout (3-4 WAR player) and they wanted to lock him up before that happened - recognizing if the breakout doesn't happen, then he should remain a 2 WAR player, which isn't so awful for $11M per.

 

If I were to guess, the probabilities were likely:

 

Breakout - 20%

Maintain Current - 70%

Pumpkin - 10%

 

In 2019 - we got the f***ing pumpkin guys. Does that make this move a bad decision? I'd argue it doesn't - it's just bad results. His GB% is up a bit this year and for some reason the power is gone (otherwise, most of the #'s all look the same). I'd suspect there's a pretty high chance he can make adjustments and return to the 2 WAR level next year - albeit his breakout chances have diminished.

 

There are a lot of crucial details you're sweeping under the rug in this analysis.

 

First, Grichuk is almost certainly in his prime or starting his decline. Age 27-32 hasn't been considered prime years since the steroid era.

 

Second, the most egregious part of the signing was that they bought out his arbitration years to pay him that contract. As such the optimistic dollars per WAR valuations are inflated. And perhaps more importantly than the dollar cost was the fact that we gave up a huge amount of flexibility, leverage, and risk management. If he didn't sign the extension, we could easily bring him back after this down year for a bargain in arbitration, or even non-tender him and resign him as an even cheaper free agent. Or at the most extreme cut him completely to extract value from the extra roster spot. Now we're stuck.

 

Finally, your outcome probabilities severely underestimate the risk associated with a player with Grichuk's batting profile. His quality of contact was good at the time, but as the Morales signing demonstrated to us directly, hard hit % doesn't guarantee a breakout. But far more important to his projections is his abysmal K-BB numbers. There are very few players who can sustain success with numbers that extreme, and he's just a handful of extra strikeouts or fewer walks away from becoming unplayable. You make it sound like Grichuk sucking is a freak outcome, but in reality his profile is one of the riskiest you can find.

 

This was another example of the front office bidding against themselves for a profile they liked. The reasonable AAV mitigates some of the negative value, but this was not a good signing that didn't work out. This was a questionable signing that may work out but hasn't so far.

[G-Snarls]

For those of us who haven't been watching...

 

Who among the pitchers the Jays have used are looking like legitimate starting rotation options for next year?

[Grant77]

For those of us who haven't been watching...

 

Who among the pitchers the Jays have used are looking like legitimate starting rotation options for next year?

 

I think that Trent Thornton deserves more time in the rotation. He's held his own as a rookie and has the stuff to be better.

 

I don't mind Jacob Waguespack as a bulk pitcher. Zeuch and SRF could join him in this category but we can't really say right now.

 

Matt Shoemaker and Ryan Borucki have been good for us but they both have serious injuries so we'll see.

 

Suffice to say we need at least 2 good pitching additions.

[BigCecil]

I have to think it was all about locking him up before he was worth a lot more. Maybe that breakout % was higher in their minds (30%?). No idea. Twins locked up Max Kepler before this year's breakout and I bet everything thinks they are brilliant for it. The probabilities for Kepler were probably very similar to those of Grichuk. That doesn't make Minnesota's FO brilliant and Toronto's stupid.

 

I did not say Toronto FO was stupid as evidenced by Grichuk ext. Can’t we even discuss the merits of deals without going to extreme. I understand what their rationale likely was. It’s kind of obvious. It was questionable and so I’m raising the question. They made a similar move with Smoak although not as long term and at the time I questioned it. Turned out to be decent value. That’s what we do here. We debate and discuss these things. Sometimes moves work out and sometimes they don’t. I’m not one to ping pong into pendulum determinations of brilliance or stupidity based on one deal.

[SaskJaysFan_2]

I did not say Toronto FO was stupid as evidenced by Grichuk ext. Can’t we even discuss the merits of deals without going to extreme. I understand what their rationale likely was. It’s kind of obvious. It was questionable and so I’m raising the question. They made a similar move with Smoak although not as long term and at the time I questioned it. Turned out to be decent value. That’s what we do here. We debate and discuss these things. Sometimes moves work out and sometimes they don’t. I’m not one to ping pong into pendulum determinations of brilliance or stupidity based on one deal.

 

I think we'll see a > 2 WAR season from Grichuk next season. It's what my sports gut is telling me.

[Spanky99]

I think we'll see a > 2 WAR season from Grichuk next season. It's what my sports gut is telling me.

 

One would hope, his pre all-star stats are getting old hat.

[Daniel Labude]

For those of us who haven't been watching...

 

Who among the pitchers the Jays have used are looking like legitimate starting rotation options for next year?

 

No one is the easy answer

[saskjayfan]

I think we'll see a > 2 WAR season from Grichuk next season. It's what my sports gut is telling me.

 

my sport gut says <2 but I do think he'll be north of 1 win.

[DigitalRock]

Same old Rowdy.

[DigitalRock]

They look like they don't want to be there today.

[Spanky99]

Same old Rowdy.

 

They look like they don't want to be there today.

 

lol

[Jonn]

Is this dude watching Jays in 30 thinking the game is live or something lol.

[Abomination]

Is this dude watching Jays in 30 thinking the game is live or something lol.

 

Must be.

[DigitalRock]

lol

 

Did my big words confuse you dummy? That's unfortunate.

[Rusty_Savage]

Did my big words confuse you dummy? That's unfortunate.

 

You realize the game your watching is taped from last night, right?

[Spanky99]

You realize the game your watching is taped from last night, right?

 

Damn man, lol. I had em all riped up.

[DigitalRock]

You realize the game your watching is taped from last night, right?

 

Drugs and alcohol...my bad

[THANOS]

http://jaysfromthecouch.com/2019/09/09/blue-jays-randal-grichuk-his-shrinking-strikeout-rate/

 

I wonder if Grichuk is sacrificing power/hard hit rate for more contact?

[Stangstag]

I think that Trent Thornton deserves more time in the rotation. He's held his own as a rookie and has the stuff to be better.

 

I don't mind Jacob Waguespack as a bulk pitcher. Zeuch and SRF could join him in this category but we can't really say right now.

 

Matt Shoemaker and Ryan Borucki have been good for us but they both have serious injuries so we'll see.

 

Suffice to say we need at least 2 good pitching additions.

 

Kay? I see him being in the rotation most of next year

[DigitalRock]

http://jaysfromthecouch.com/2019/09/09/blue-jays-randal-grichuk-his-shrinking-strikeout-rate/

 

I wonder if Grichuk is sacrificing power/hard hit rate for more contact?

 

Problem with Grichuk is he is not that good.

[glory]

http://jaysfromthecouch.com/2019/09/09/blue-jays-randal-grichuk-his-shrinking-strikeout-rate/

 

I wonder if Grichuk is sacrificing power/hard hit rate for more contact?

 

I don't know why they'd intentionally have Grichuk stop doing the one thing he's good at in order to improve a weakness he has very little chance of ever improving on. Smoak was able to draw walks even when he sucked as a hitter. Grichuk is not going to go from a 5% walk rate to 10-12%. That's not the type of player he is. Just let him barrel the ball, hit it hard, strike out 30% of the time, go on his usual July/Aug hot streak, and live with the 2 WAR that comes with it. I mean I respect the fact that they invested $50mil in him so they are trying to make him the best player he could be, but he's not that guy. Someone like Derek Fisher who walks a lot already is more likely to benefit from this sort of adjustment.

[Barkerfan23]

46

 

Numbers of times Teoscar Hernandez has struck out in his last 95 at bats

 

Barker pulled no punches, Low baseball IQ, makes mistakes, not much of a Centre Fielder,

 

"In my opinion he is not on this team this year, he'd have to hit 40 homeruns a year to be a factor"

[Barkerfan23]

"I dont know how you can look like this in 2020. I dont know how you can turn this into a competing team in 2020."

 

"I dont think they can score more runs."

[Deadpool]

46

 

Numbers of times Teoscar Hernandez has struck out in his last 95 at bats

 

Barker pulled no punches, Low baseball IQ, makes mistakes, not much of a Centre Fielder,

 

"In my opinion he is not on this team this year, he'd have to hit 40 homeruns a year to be a factor"

 

Teo has put up 1.2 more WAR this season than Kevin Barker had his whole career.

[Barkerfan23]

Barker also suggested that he has seen enough of Rowdy. Rowdy cant hit the ball away, Cant hit the ball up. Thinks he would already adjusted if he was capable of it.

[Barkerfan23]

Teo has put up 1.2 more WAR this season than Kevin Barker had his whole career.

 

He is striking out 34% of times on the season and has put up a measly 0.5 WAR in 400 plate appearances.

[Deadpool]

He is striking out 34% of times on the season and has put up a measly 0.5 WAR in 400 plate appearances.

 

Okay, but Barker is an idiot who was terrible at baseball and nobody should listen to about anything 'cause his opinions are generally terrible, so here were are..

[Boxcar]

Okay, but Barker is an idiot who was terrible at baseball and nobody should listen to about anything 'cause his opinions are generally terrible, so here were are..

 

Guys on the fan apparently don't think the team has any chance of competing before 2030.

[gruber92]

Looks like Alford has fallen out of management's interest regarding next year's roster. Davis and Fisher get the starts tonight again. Well, at least they're giving Davis a look, who imo would provide more value than McKinney or Fisher. Davis could possibly be a viable fourth outfielder behind Gurriel, Grichuk and a free agent signing next year.