General 2019 Blue Jays Discussion Thread

[Ray]

The fact that people use the 5 years argument to criticize the Grichuk extension is also completely asinine given that it also covered this season and his next arb season. It’s essentially a 3 year extension for $27M with how the deal is structured. We’re paying him more up front the first 2 seasons where we have nothing on the books and hoping he makes improvements that stick. What exactly is Grichuks contract hindering right now? Absolutely nothing.

 

And even if he’s the exact same player, there absolutely is room for a 2 WAR corner OF on a championship team.

[Terminator]

The fact that people use the 5 years argument to criticize the Grichuk extension is also completely asinine given that it also covered this season and his next arb season. It’s essentially a 3 year extension for $27M with how the deal is structured. We’re paying him more up front the first 2 seasons where we have nothing on the books and hoping he makes improvements that stick. What exactly is Grichuks contract hindering right now? Absolutely nothing.

 

And even if he’s the exact same player, there absolutely is room for a 2 WAR corner OF on a championship team.

 

Ah ok, so it covered 2 years of his arb and 3 of FA? That's a lot better. That said he's looking like a non-tender candidate right now. Hopefully he shakes off his slow start (which he usually does by now) soon.

[L54]

I don't see Bregman. They are very different players.

 

If you're gonna go the perennial MVP route, Kris Bryant seems a lot better.

 

It’s a comp based on objective data Boxy. Those were the names that were left. Those were the results.

 

Kris Bryant’s O-Swing% is 28%. They are very different players

[glory]

Ahhhh, here goes. You have been very consistent about your view on Grichuk's extension. THAT'S THE POINT. You've been repeating it in multiple threads for what feels like 4 or 5 weeks now. "You know, this FO is s*** - I mean just look at that stupid Grichuk extension".

 

FWIW, Grichuk has average 2.175 WAR per year over the past 4. I'll round that to 2.2 (because it helps my argument). There were 117 offensive players in baseball last year who posted 2.2 WAR or higher. That's 3.8 per team (which I'll round to 4 to even things out) and thus 5ToolPhenom's suggestion you don't want him in your lineup 2 years from now when he's in the middle of his prime is pretty insane. To suggest a '2 win' player is overpaid at $10M per season is pretty questionable as is, but to suggest no one of that talent level gets paid that much anymore is simply incorrect. He's a quick list of some 2019 FA signees who are still relatively young and have averaged about 2 WAR in previous years (ie, have some decent track record):

 

Moustakas - $10M

W.Ramos - $8.45M

DJ LeMahieu - $12M

J. Scoop - $8.5M

 

If you want to question the length of the deal - be my guest. We have to assume the FO thought there was a decent chance that once comfortable in TO and possibly with some maturity and improvement (as he enters his prime years) that instead of a 2 WAR player - he could be a 3 WAR player (much like Steven Piscotty was last year). There were just 68 offensive players who posted 3 WAR or higher last year (2.26 per team). That player, locked in at $10M per season is incredible value. To add to that - given his base running, solid defense and versatility - he comes with a pretty high floor.

 

It's not difficult to see how the team would evaluate the potential outcomes and the probabilities of each outcome and land on the decision to extend him. Will it work out? Maybe - maybe not. If the math suggests this extension works out (or provides excess value) 80% of the time, with a 40% change it produces a significant amount of excess value....is it fair to s*** on the FO when the outcome unfortunately falls into the 20% chance? I say it's not. Likewise, if the numbers suggest there's a 25% change this extension works out and a 5% change it produces a significant amount of excess value....is it fair to praise them when it works out? I say it's not.

 

I mean if you want to s*** on their projection and evaluation process - by all means do that; however, you (and I) probably know next to nothing about it, so how the F do you form an opinion?

 

In general, we all need to stop pretending we understand the evaluations, projections and probabilities. But one thing is for sure - we should stop reemphasizing our opinion over and over again (for 4 or 5 weeks) like it's the only answer, when in fact, we have no f***ing idea.

 

You just made my argument for me. The players you mentioned (and I have a few more) signed short term deals, or even one year deals, because of how 1-2 WAR players are valued in the current market place. No one is questioning Grichuk making $5m this year and whatever he would have made in arb next year. It's the fact that they felt the need to sign him for 5 years, which lead to $50+ mil in commitment when players like him are simply not valued anymore. Jarrod Dyson put up a 5 WAR over a two year stretch in 2016-17 and got 2/7.5. Jose Iglesias coming off a 2.5 WAR at age 28 got a minor league deal. Now you can nitpick age, whether WAR is derived from D or offence, and all that, which is fine, but fact is players better than Grichuk in value are not getting long term big money deals in free agency. Give me a choice between Schoop and Grichuk at the same price and I'll take Schoop easily, but when one costs 1/8 and the other 5/53? They are the same freakin' age and one plays the infield! Come on.

 

Don't know what to say, put me on ignore if I mention Grichuk too much. I honestly have no idea how you think I post about him every week or whatever. Spoiler: I'm going to mention him and his s***** contract again some time between now and the next 4 years, so it won't stop. You chose to focus on that part rather than the Stroman/Giles part. That's on you. I literally mentioned him in one line to compare it to the lack of extension with Stroman and Giles. I'm not obsessed with it as you seem to think.

Edited June 19, 2019 by glory

[SaskJaysFan_2]

Ahhhh, here goes. You have been very consistent about your view on Grichuk's extension. THAT'S THE POINT. You've been repeating it in multiple threads for what feels like 4 or 5 weeks now. "You know, this FO is s*** - I mean just look at that stupid Grichuk extension".

 

FWIW, Grichuk has average 2.175 WAR per year over the past 4. I'll round that to 2.2 (because it helps my argument). There were 117 offensive players in baseball last year who posted 2.2 WAR or higher. That's 3.8 per team (which I'll round to 4 to even things out) and thus 5ToolPhenom's suggestion you don't want him in your lineup 2 years from now when he's in the middle of his prime is pretty insane. To suggest a '2 win' player is overpaid at $10M per season is pretty questionable as is, but to suggest no one of that talent level gets paid that much anymore is simply incorrect. He's a quick list of some 2019 FA signees who are still relatively young and have averaged about 2 WAR in previous years (ie, have some decent track record):

 

Moustakas - $10M

W.Ramos - $8.45M

DJ LeMahieu - $12M

J. Scoop - $8.5M

 

If you want to question the length of the deal - be my guest. We have to assume the FO thought there was a decent chance that once comfortable in TO and possibly with some maturity and improvement (as he enters his prime years) that instead of a 2 WAR player - he could be a 3 WAR player (much like Steven Piscotty was last year). There were just 68 offensive players who posted 3 WAR or higher last year (2.26 per team). That player, locked in at $10M per season is incredible value. To add to that - given his base running, solid defense and versatility - he comes with a pretty high floor.

 

It's not difficult to see how the team would evaluate the potential outcomes and the probabilities of each outcome and land on the decision to extend him. Will it work out? Maybe - maybe not. If the math suggests this extension works out (or provides excess value) 80% of the time, with a 40% change it produces a significant amount of excess value....is it fair to s*** on the FO when the outcome unfortunately falls into the 20% chance? I say it's not. Likewise, if the numbers suggest there's a 25% change this extension works out and a 5% change it produces a significant amount of excess value....is it fair to praise them when it works out? I say it's not.

 

I mean if you want to s*** on their projection and evaluation process - by all means do that; however, you (and I) probably know next to nothing about it, so how the F do you form an opinion?

 

In general, we all need to stop pretending we understand the evaluations, projections and probabilities. But one thing is for sure - we should stop reemphasizing our opinion over and over again (for 4 or 5 weeks) like it's the only answer, when in fact, we have no f***ing idea.

 

This is a really great, toughtful, post. Thank you.

 

I will also add, nothing empirical, but the notion that Grichuk may be the type of player who thrives when there are some really solid players in the batting lineup. I just feel that he would exceed expectations on a good team.

[wamco]

Or just got through the arb process worth him, giving you 2 more seasons to evaluate him. I didn’t smell breakout with him b4 the season. Seems like he is who he is at this point. That said, the contract isn’t crazy

[5ToolPhenom]

At 10 million, why?

 

One dimensional, grip it rip it guys like Grichuk are a dime a dozen. Why commit that many years and money to him?

[Brownie19]

Or just got through the arb process worth him, giving you 2 more seasons to evaluate him. I didn’t smell breakout with him b4 the season. Seems like he is who he is at this point. That said, the contract isn’t crazy

 

Did you smell a breakout for Max Kepler? did you like that extension when it was announced?

[L54]

Did you smell a breakout for Max Kepler? did you like that extension when it was announced?

 

Kepler was a pretty obvious breakout candidate

[glory]

Kepler had a 11.6 BB% and 15.7 K% last year with 20 home runs. He just had a really low BABIP (.236). I'll take someone with that profile (high walk, low/medium K, developing power) any day of the week over a 5 BB% and 30 K% like Grichuk normally has.

 

If Grichuk breaks out any time within the next 4 years it will be because he got the walks up and K's down. Either that or they keep him in RF all season and maybe his defensive value can compensate for his average bat (this might be more realistic).

[DigitalRock]

I don't see Bregman. They are very different players.

 

If you're gonna go the perennial MVP route, Kris Bryant seems a lot better.

 

Don't you mean Bergaman?

[Olerud363]

(fake) Keith Law update

 

When I told you Fernando Tatis JR. was the top prospect in baseball did you believe me?? Do you believe me now??

 

People call me arrogant, but that's ridiculous. The fact that anybody had Vladimir Guerrero ahead of Tatis was sheer stupidity on their part. If people don't have common sense they deserve to be called out. On one hand you had a fat, out of shape, man-child, and on the other hand a professional athlete. They've both played about 40 games in the majors now, and it has unfolded exactly as I told you it would. Tatis already has 2 fWAR, while Guerrero is struggling to break even. Tatis is a guy who will routinely challenge 10 WAR moving forward, while Guerrero will struggle to hit 5.

 

Beyond defense and baserunning anybody should of been able to see Tatis was the better hitter despite the minor league numbers. People focused too much on Tatis' strikeouts. May I remind you that Mike Trout struck out 180+ times his first MVP year. Like Trout, Tatis has +++ bat speed, Guerrero is a notch below that. In the majors that becomes obvious as Guerrero is struggling to pull the ball with authority (6/7 homeruns are to center, while it's all grounders on the pull side), while Tatis is aiming for light towers down the left field line.

 

It floors me that the industry did not see the obvious. That's their blind spot. Not mine. Am I special for making the right call?? No. I just did my job while others were out to lunch. As I mentioned before switch the fathers and you get an idea of what the sons will do. Not to say Vlad will have a Tatis SR. career. If healthy he'll have Tatis' best year several times. He'll be a top 5 first basemen. Tatis JR wil have Vlad SR stats and top flight defense at short. He'll be a top 5 overall.

[wamco]

Did you smell a breakout for Max Kepler? did you like that extension when it was announced?

 

Yes, I drafted him a year earlier in fantasy

[Olerud363]

On a serious note a quick glance at fan graphs indicates Tatis and Guerrero are neck in neck in batted ball and surprisingly close in defense. The fact that Tatis is hitting .330 and Guerrero .255 is basically luck (5 singles fall in for Tatis, and 5 hit a glove for Vlad).

 

As much as I complain about Vlad it's not like Tatis is doing anything that much better just (as far as I can tell) seems to have had better batted ball luck. In fact the defense between the two is surprisingly close (Vlad -1, Tatis +1 on fangraphs).

 

This is actually important if this trend holds. While Vlad has made some silly errors, and a couple of mental lapses, he seems to be surprisingly athletic and has made some tough plays. He doesn't have to be a star on defense to provide huge value.

 

Guys like Cabrerra and Prince Fielder have huge negative defensive value. Like -10 to -20 on fangraphs, which takes a win or two of their WAR. If Vlad can break even on defense (as an average 3rd basemen, or perhaps a ++ first basemen) that would add a win or two to his totals.

[BlueRocky]

We already know Vlad’s exit velos are elite. When that hit tool starts to adjust to the majors the ceiling is a 40+ HR bat that hits .330. Bats like that don’t come everyday. He has potential to put up franchise record numbers. That’s saying a lot cuz we’ve had some damn good hitters in the past.

 

They’re both great prospects and I’m just happy with what we have with Vlad. And if Bo Bichette is anything close to Tatis we will be just fine.

[Ex Player]

We already know Vlad’s exit velos are elite. When that hit tool starts to adjust to the majors the ceiling is a 40+ HR bat that hits .330. Bats like that don’t come everyday. He has potential to put up franchise record numbers. That’s saying a lot cuz we’ve had some damn good hitters in the past.

 

They’re both great prospects and I’m just happy with what we have with Vlad. And if Bo Bichette is anything close to Tatis we will be just fine

We need pitching though

[Barkerfan23]

We need pitching though

 

I think locking up Stroman is going to be worth it, especially given this regime's trade history.

[Ray]

We need pitching though

 

I really don't get this argument when it comes up over and over. Like yeah, of course the pitching is bad right now, but our future rotation doesn't have to be home grown top to bottom. In all likelihood, a good chunk of the rotation in our eventual playoff runs are probably not even in the organization right now.

 

Astros fans in 2014 were probably thinking their eventual championship rotation was going to consist of Mark Appel, Joe Musgrove, Francis Martes, and Michael Feliz. Instead they got Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole.

[Ray]

I think locking up Stroman is going to be worth it, especially given this regime's trade history.

 

Depends on the price. I would not go higher than 5 years $65M. Chances are Stroman is asking for more than that.

[tbad]

WTF is going on with Sogard... career high 3 HR before this year... he's 33 and already has 7 through less than half of a season.

[Abomination]

WTF is going on with Sogard... career high 3 HR before this year... he's 33 and already has 7 through less than half of a season.

 

Harder bats, harder balls, and pitchers who care more about velocity than location.

[tbad]

Harder bats, harder balls, and pitchers who care more about velocity than location.

 

I'd say more park factor + gungho approach at the plate - dude's career was nearly over, he's going all in on the swings and it's working.

[glory]

I wonder if there is a trade out there where Stroman can be dealt for a P already in the bigs, similar to the Rays trading Archer and getting Glasnow. It would have to be buying low on a P who is struggling or in the pen since a team is not going to worsen their rotation to add Stroman. Only pitcher I can think of is Josh James, but no idea if Houston would move him or not (plus add prospects on top of that).

[Abomination]

I wonder if there is a trade out there where Stroman can be dealt for a P already in the bigs, similar to the Rays trading Archer and getting Glasnow. It would have to be buying low on a P who is struggling or in the pen since a team is not going to worsen their rotation to add Stroman. Only pitcher I can think of is Josh James, but no idea if Houston would move him or not (plus add prospects on top of that).

 

Urias seems like an obvious one to me.

[Jimcanuck]

WTF is going on with Sogard... career high 3 HR before this year... he's 33 and already has 7 through less than half of a season.

 

Scutaro breakout

[tbad]

Scutaro breakout

 

Scutaro was so amazing here... nice flashbacks

[Jimcanuck]

Scutaro was so amazing here... nice flashbacks

 

Scutaro was replacement level until coming to the Jays at age 33. Sogard same age.

[tbad]

Before

 

44PA 0HR 6.8%BB 27%K 42wRC+ 0%HR/FB (43% FB) 21%Hard 62%Z-Swing 14%SwStr

 

After (recall)

 

96PA 8HR 7.3%BB 24%K 167wRC+ 26.7%HR/FB (46% FB) 46%Hard 65%Z-Swing 14%SwStr

 

This tells me he's just making better contact and way more of his fly balls are leaving the yard. Nothing else is statistically different (small sample alert).

 

Edit: And for that Tercet nut job... his BABIP is reasonable before/after (.250/.333 respectively).

[Terminator]

[gruber92]

WTF is going on with Sogard... career high 3 HR before this year... he's 33 and already has 7 through less than half of a season.

 

The 7 HR is a bit surprising but playing in the AL EAST is a lot friendlier than the AL WEST. For example, the HR he hit tonight probably gets caught on the track in the night air of Oakland.