General 2019 Blue Jays Discussion Thread

[DCP]

I like how the BJs are approaching the game. Hitting the other way, bunting, taking more pitches. At the beginning of the season I was very worried that the team would be historically poor at the plate, but things have turned around. This team may surprise!

[BTS]

I took a look at Aaron Sanchez's batted ball stats this morning expecting to see a bunch of soft contact that would help explain the big difference between his ERA and xFIP. Most of it is luck, because nobody is going to make a 5.15 xFIP work, but I expected a lot of soft contact that would explain the difference at least in part. Among 334 qualified pitchers (25+ batted ball events), he:

 

- has the 79th-highest average exit velocity (90.2)

- he's 118th highest in exit velocity on FB/LD (93.9) and 89th highest on ground balls (87.3)

- he has the 67th-highest percentage of batted balls being hit at 95+ (43.2%)

- he's 201st-highest in barrels/batted ball event (this isn't bad)

 

Posting because I was legit surprised at how mediocre the contact profile is given the difference between his ERA and xFIP. People are hitting the ball harder off him than they do against most of the league.

 

He's not really doing anything that you'd like to see a starting pitcher do right now, aside from an above-average GB rate (which does limit the barrels against to a slightly better than average rate):

- his K-rate is below average

- he has the second-highest walk rate in the league among qualified starters

- when hitters make contact, they hit the ball harder than they do against most pitchers

 

I wonder how he'd do in a role where's only asked to go a max of 3-4 innings. I have no idea if this is true or not, but he seems to fare quite well early in starts and then fall apart by inning 5 or 6.

[Boxcar]

I like how the BJs are approaching the game. Hitting the other way, bunting, taking more pitches. At the beginning of the season I was very worried that the team would be historically poor at the plate, but things have turned around. This team may surprise!

 

The Jays were above average offensively last year. Not sure why you'd expect them to be historically poor given it's pretty much the same cast of characters this time around.

 

The actual reason they are winning is the pitching, but sure, bunts and slap hits are paving the way.

[Brownie19]

The Jays were above average offensively last year. Not sure why you'd expect them to be historically poor given it's pretty much the same cast of characters this time around.

 

The actual reason they are winning is the pitching, but sure, bunts and slap hits are paving the way.

 

Wrong Boxy. If everyone hit like Sogard - we'd be unstoppable.

[Brownie19]

I took a look at Aaron Sanchez's batted ball stats this morning expecting to see a bunch of soft contact that would help explain the big difference between his ERA and xFIP. Most of it is luck, because nobody is going to make a 5.15 xFIP work, but I expected a lot of soft contact that would explain the difference at least in part. Among 334 qualified pitchers (25+ batted ball events), he:

 

- has the 79th-highest average exit velocity (90.2)

- he's 118th highest in exit velocity on FB/LD (93.9) and 89th highest on ground balls (87.3)

- he has the 67th-highest percentage of batted balls being hit at 95+ (43.2%)

- he's 201st-highest in barrels/batted ball event (this isn't bad)

 

Posting because I was legit surprised at how mediocre the contact profile is given the difference between his ERA and xFIP. People are hitting the ball harder off him than they do against most of the league.

 

He's not really doing anything that you'd like to see a starting pitcher do right now, aside from an above-average GB rate (which does limit the barrels against to a slightly better than average rate):

- his K-rate is below average

- he has the second-highest walk rate in the league among qualified starters

- when hitters make contact, they hit the ball harder than they do against most pitchers

 

I wonder how he'd do in a role where's only asked to go a max of 3-4 innings. I have no idea if this is true or not, but he seems to fare quite well early in starts and then fall apart by inning 5 or 6.

 

Interesting. Can you compare that to his 2016 results now?

[BTS]

Interesting. Can you compare that to his 2016 results now?

 

Surprisingly, it was more of the same story. Of 629 qualified pitchers:

 

- 85th-highst average EV

- 114th-highest % of batted balls hit 95+

- 317th-highest barrels/batted ball event

 

So lots of loud contact, but GB tendencies result in an average-ish number of barrels.

 

2019 - 223rd out of 261 in xwOBA (0.375)

2016 - 286th out of 587 in xwOBA (0.319)

 

I think the difference in xwOBA between the two years is mostly driven by his much better walk and ground ball rates in 2016. The contact quality is pretty similar.

 

Maybe we've been too quick to call contact-management one of his skills? It is, after all, only ~500 innings of ERA lower than the estimators. If he's managing contact better than most pitchers, I have no idea where that's coming through in the data.

 

I'm very surprised by the 2016 data especially.

[Jimcanuck]

5 and 80 is is recency bias? Stroman is on pace to win the Cy Young. If I was going off recency bias I would have put an AAV of 30 mil on the guy.

 

You can't ignore the start of the season either. Stroman is throwing less 2 seamers and is still growing as a pitcher. The kid put up a 3.4 win season in 130 innings. He had a full season's putting up 3.4 and 3.2 wins and last year he battled with injuries. If we can't pay Stroman 80 over 5 we're never going to get even a second tier free agent let alone a top tier free agent. Toronto like many markets is already at a market plus 10% for premium free agents, because they want to play elsewhere.

 

You sign him if a reasonable deal can be had, trade him if not.

 

You said he's a 3.5+ WAR pitcher when he has never exceeded that in his 6 seasons. A nice April does not eclipse 6 seasons of data.

[DCP]

I didn't write that I expected them to be poor at hitting, I was just observing how poorly they started the season.

[DCP]

One has to divorce the man from the results, I guess. Sure, the economy seems to be OK, but he is such a low life....

[Bobthe4th]

You sign him if a reasonable deal can be had, trade him if not.

 

You said he's a 3.5+ WAR pitcher when he has never exceeded that in his 6 seasons. A nice April does not eclipse 6 seasons of data.

 

You fail to mention that his 6 seasons only include 2 full seasons.

 

He’s put up 3.4 and 3.2 in full seasons, with 3.4 and 1.4 in half seasons (his first and his injury plagued last). Then he has 2 partial seasons (injury and then this one).

 

3.5+ is perfectly reasonable to expect (fitness permitting) based on his track record.

[Jimcanuck]

You fail to mention that his 6 seasons only include 2 full seasons.

 

He’s put up 3.4 and 3.2 in full seasons, with 3.4 and 1.4 in half seasons (his first and his injury plagued last). Then he has 2 partial seasons (injury and then this one).

 

3.5+ is perfectly reasonable to expect (fitness permitting) based on his track record.

 

No need to mention his injury record. Injuries are baked into the results. Some players, and pitchers in particular, are more susceptible to injury than others.

 

Stroman is capable of 3.5+, no question and will likely exceed it once or twice. But to expect 3.5+ WAR going forward is incorrect.

[Bobthe4th]

No need to mention his injury record. Injuries are baked into the results. Some players, and pitchers in particular, are more susceptible to injury than others.

 

Stroman is capable of 3.5+, no question and will likely exceed it once or twice. But to expect 3.5+ WAR going forward is incorrect.

 

All pitchers are susceptible to injury. Your original comment appeared to be suggesting that he was incapable of exceeding 3.5, which is obviously bollocks.

[Jimcanuck]

All pitchers are susceptible to injury. Your original comment appeared to be suggesting that he was incapable of exceeding 3.5, which is obviously bollocks.

 

I took issue with saskjaysfan in his original comment "I think stroman is a 3.5+ win pitcher" which is not supported by the data.

 

No need to misinterpret what I wrote in a clearly negative way.

[Boxcar]

My two favourite dummies are fighting

 

Careful Jim, you might end up on Bob's IL, assuming he hasn't hit the limit.

[Terminator]

Any word on who is going to take over the 5th starter spot? Haven't needed one since Shoemaker went down.

[Pendleton]

Any word on who is going to take over the 5th starter spot? Haven't needed one since Shoemaker went down.

 

Opener + Gaviglio piggyback?

[Terminator]

Opener + Gaviglio piggyback?

 

Yeah I was thinking Pannone could get involved in that somehow too. Try and line it up so he's facing the other teams lefties.

[BTS]

Any word on who is going to take over the 5th starter spot? Haven't needed one since Shoemaker went down.

 

Honestly, it should be Waguespack. Richard won't be ready. SRF and Paulino have been bad in AAA. Murphy is still in AA. Gaviglio is legit mowing people down in the pen and we should proabbly see how long that can last. Only other option is Pannone.

[Abomination]

Where exactly are those reports? You have a link?

 

I don't remember where it was. It might have been a Sportsnet article or video. It was last fall or early offseason.

[Deadpool]

I don't remember where it was. It might have been a Sportsnet article or video. It was last fall or early offseason.

 

Just to confirm, I do remember this article existing, Abom isn't pulling this out of his ass.

[Brownie19]

Honestly, it should be Waguespack. Richard won't be ready. SRF and Paulino have been bad in AAA. Murphy is still in AA. Gaviglio is legit mowing people down in the pen and we should proabbly see how long that can last. Only other option is Pannone.

 

Our AAA pitchers have been awful. 4 pitchers have combined for over 41 innings with an ERA over 11! (SRF and Danny Barnes are 2 of the 4)

 

I've never really heard of Dusty Isaacs, but he's been great this year (13 2/3 innings, 5 hits allowed, 2 BB, 19 K). Looks like he's always missed bats, but struggled with control. Hopefully he's found something.

[Spanky99]

Last night on MLB NOW... Ken Rosenthal said "I believe... *pauses* actually I've been told the Jays will be trading Stroman/Sanchez/Smoak amongst others for additional pieces before the deadline to get players that coincide with Vladdy's timeline, amongst Biggio and Bichette, etc"

 

Here's a neat graph...

 

 

 

Follow-up...

 

https://www.mlb.com/news/vladimir-guerrero-jr-seeing-few-good-pitches

Edited April 30, 2019 by Spanky99

[saskjayfan]

You sign him if a reasonable deal can be had, trade him if not.

 

You said he's a 3.5+ WAR pitcher when he has never exceeded that in his 6 seasons. A nice April does not eclipse 6 seasons of data.

 

So he put up a 3.3 WAR in the 2 full seasons he played. I'm making the assessment that he is improving as a pitcher as good pitchers often do when they figure things out and enter their prime. At the end of the season when Stroman has put a good season, good luck in extending him when you offer him 3 years 33 mil for his free agent years. If Stroman isn't a 3.5 win pitcher, would you like to put a friendly wager on whether Stroman puts up 4.5 FWAR season or not. That should be easy money for you.

[The Iceman]

Last night on MLB NOW... Ken Rosenthal said "I believe... *pauses* actually I've been told the Jays will be trading Stroman/Sanchez/Smoak amongst others for additional pieces before the deadline to get players that coincide with Vladdy's timeline, amongst Biggio and Bichette, etc"

 

Here's a neat graph...

 

 

 

Follow-up...

 

https://www.mlb.com/news/vladimir-guerrero-jr-seeing-few-good-pitches

 

 

Tell Rosenthal Sanchez is 26 and Biggio is 24 and are on the same time line

[P2F]

Tell Rosenthal Sanchez is 26 and Biggio is 24 and are on the same time line

 

How are they on the same timeline? Sanchez has one more year of control left after this season and Biggio has seven...

[Spanky99]

How are they on the same timeline? Sanchez has one more year of control left after this season and Biggio has seven...

 

Not to mention Rosenthal's just passing along info he's received from someone in the org.

[Spanky99]

Tell Rosenthal Sanchez is 26 and Biggio is 24 and are on the same time line

 

[jmomcc]

I’m guessing Sanchez, Stroman, smoak are available for arms who are closeish. I wonder who we could get?

 

What teams need arms and what teams would be in for smoak?

 

I see a lot of looking at prospect lists of random teams in my future lol.

[L54]

So he put up a 3.3 WAR in the 2 full seasons he played. I'm making the assessment that he is improving as a pitcher as good pitchers often do when they figure things out and enter their prime. At the end of the season when Stroman has put a good season, good luck in extending him when you offer him 3 years 33 mil for his free agent years. If Stroman isn't a 3.5 win pitcher, would you like to put a friendly wager on whether Stroman puts up 4.5 FWAR season or not. That should be easy money for you.

 

Okay you made some good points earlier but now you're just giving off the feeling that you're butt hurt Jim doesn't agree with you.

[BTS]

Is Stroman improving? He's traded some fastballs for sliders and some groundballs for strikeouts and walks, but the current version hasn't actually been better than the comfortably above-average Stroman we've seen since 2014. He's good now. He's always been good.