Offseason Roster Thread

[Spanky99]

Yes, plus the team very likely doesn't have a choice unless getting pitchers in return.

 

I mean, trading Stroman away simply because of character flaws is dumb, and this is coming from someone who WANTS to see Stroman traded away because of his irritating character flaws.

 

lol

[Spanky99]

posturing!

 

 

you crack me up bud

[Ray]

Anibal Sanchez would be a good fit for a bottom of the rotation starter.

[Spanky99]

Sanchez and Smoak for Gray and something. Smoak is instantly an upgrade at 1B for them, while Sanchez either becomes a buy low rotation option or reliever for them. Jays get three years of control on a good starter who might benefit from a change of scenery. Use the money saved to sign Kikuchi.

 

I meant to say this yesterday, this a really good idea. If that were a possible outcome I'd be ecstatic.

[Spanky99]

MLBTR on our Offseason Outlook...

 

Offseason Outlook: Toronto Blue Jays

By Mark Polishuk | November 8, 2018 at 6:57pm CDT

 

MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams. Click here to read the other entries in this series.

 

The youth movement is on in Toronto, as the Blue Jays will look to continue trading veterans and picking up controllable pieces for the future.

 

Guaranteed Contracts

 

Troy Tulowitzki, SS: $38MM through 2020 (includes $4MM buyout of $15MM club option for 2021)

Russell Martin, C: $20MM through 2019

Lourdes Gurriel Jr., IF/OF: $17.4MM through 2023

Kendrys Morales, DH: $12MM through 2019

Justin Smoak, 1B: $8MM through 2019 (Jays exercised club option)

Arbitration Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

 

Marcus Stroman – $7.2MM

Ken Giles – $6.6MM

Yangervis Solarte – $5.9MM (Jays retain control even through Solarte’s $5.5MM club option wasn’t exercised)

Kevin Pillar – $5.3MM

Randal Grichuk – $4.8MM

Aaron Sanchez – $3.8MM

Devon Travis – $2.4MM

Ryan Tepera – $1.7MM

Brandon Drury – $1.4MM

Joe Biagini – $1.0MM

Non-tender candidates: Solarte, Pillar

Free Agents

 

Marco Estrada, Tyler Clippard, Jake Petricka

[Toronto Blue Jays Depth Chart; Blue Jays Payroll Overview]

 

It’s pretty unlikely that any player the Blue Jays acquire this winter will have as much impact on the franchise as Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who is expected to make his long-awaited MLB debut sometime early in 2019. The precise timing isn’t yet known, but there’s no question the club will wait until it is no longer possible for Guerrero to achieve a full year of MLB service time. The consensus top prospect in the sport, Guerrero represents the next generation of Jays baseball, when he and a host of other intriguing youngsters from Toronto’s farm system will theoretically become the core of the Jays’ next contending team.

 

Until those prospects arrive and develop, however, the Jays will spend their time (perhaps the next two seasons, as per GM Ross Atkins’ rough timeframe) figuring out who will be playing alongside them. The club already began dealing some of its veterans once it faded out of contention last season, and it’s safe to assume the Blue Jays will be open to moving any and all remaining established names to make way for younger talent.

 

Since the Jays currently have a lot of options for both the infield and outfield spots, Atkins has already said that the team will prioritize moving some of its excess position players to add pitching. The rotation is perhaps the biggest concern heading into 2019, as the Jays are poised to deploy a highly uncertain starting five. Marcus Stroman and Aaron Sanchez are still in the mix. Otherwise, the unit is slated to be made up of largely untested hurlers — Ryan Borucki, and then some combination of Sean Reid-Foley, Sam Gaviglio, Thomas Pannone, and perhaps Jon Harris or Jacob Waguespack.

 

Stroman received trade interest last summer, even while in the midst of a down year that saw the right-hander post a 5.54 ERA over 102 1/3 IP while battling shoulder and blister issues. The Jays would be selling low on Stroman if they dealt him this offseason, and are perhaps more likely to explore a trade (if at all) during the season, provided the righty is healthy and showing some of his 2017 form. Sanchez is an even greater longshot to be moved, as his stock has fallen after pitching only 141 innings total in 2017-18 due to persistent finger, nail, and blister problems.

 

Given that even the veteran names in the rotation aren’t certainties, Toronto will look at adding at least one experienced arm on a short-term contract, similar to their signing of Jaime Garcia last winter (obviously with better results, the team hopes). Ervin Santana, Josh Tomlin, Drew Pomeranz, or Martin Perez are a few bounce-back candidates that could conceivably fit as targets on one-year deals, not to mention a familiar face like Marco Estrada, though Estrada’s own struggles in 2018 may lead the Blue Jays to pursue someone with more upside.

 

If the Jays looked at pitchers beyond one-year commitments, another old friend like J.A. Happ could be a possibility, should Happ value a familiar environment over a chance to compete for the playoffs in 2019. Pitchers like Anibal Sanchez, Gio Gonzalez, or Lance Lynn could fit. Looking to the future a bit, the Jays could consider Garrett Richards, who will miss 2019 recovering from Tommy John surgery but should be ready for 2020 when Toronto is a step closer to contention. Getting even more creative with their starters, the Jays could potentially even use an “opener” for one of the rotation spots, though that is far from a certainty.

 

Any veteran starter the Jays acquire, of course, could also become a trade candidate at the deadline, and the same goes for any reliever the team might pick up. The Blue Jays have signed and then flipped a number of inexpensive free agent relievers over the last two offseasons (Seunghwan Oh, Joe Smith, John Axford), so expect them to target similar bullpen arms this winter. In terms of in-house relievers that could be traded, incumbent closer Ken Giles is the biggest name, though he might be another player who the Jays wait to properly shop until he improves his value during the season. Giles posted a 4.65 ERA over 50 1/3 total innings with the Astros and Blue Jays in 2018, with some excellent peripherals (9.5 K/9, 7.57 K/BB rate) but also very poor numbers when not pitching in save situations.

 

The question of “when should an asset be traded?” will certainly linger over Toronto’s offseason, particularly in the wake of the relative lack of return the Jays received for Josh Donaldson last summer, when the former MVP could’ve netted much more prior to his injury-riddled 2018 season. The Jays obviously aren’t going to rush to move a player purely as a reaction to Donaldson’s situation, though selling high on a few players now would make sense given the Blue Jays’ projected timeframe for contention.

 

Randal Grichuk, for instance, played quite well in his first year in Toronto, though he might not be part of the team’s future since he is eligible for free agency after the 2020 season. Justin Smoak is only under contract through 2019, so it might make sense for the Jays to deal him this winter and create room to give Rowdy Tellez a longer look at first base. Teoscar Hernandez offers five years of control and a lot of power, though his high strikeout totals and near-unplayable outfield glove could make him someone the Jays see as less of a long-term roster piece and more as someone to be dealt in a package for a true long-term asset.

 

Of course, the Jays would undoubtedly be much more open to dealing Troy Tulowitzki, Kendrys Morales, or Russell Martin, though these high-priced veterans are each more or less immovable. Morales rebounded from a poor 2017 to post above-average hitting numbers (112 OPS+, 108 wRC+) last year, but it would take more than decent numbers to drum up much trade interest in a DH-only player with a $12MM salary.

 

Martin has at least a little theoretical trade value, perhaps in a swap of bad contracts with a team that needs a catcher, though even that scenario could be hampered by a larger-than-usual number of decent veteran catchers available in free agency. Danny Jansen is slated for the bulk of catching duties for the Jays next season, leaving Martin as a well-paid backup and veteran mentor to Jansen, Luke Maile, and Reese McGuire (plus maybe some backup infield duty).

 

After missing all of the 2018 season due to heel injuries, Tulowitzki has no trade value whatsoever, and it remains to be seen exactly what the Jays will do with Tulowitzki if he is able to take the field come Opening Day. The shortstop doesn’t appear open to a position switch, and while Lourdes Gurriel Jr. can play several positions around the diamond, the Jays are obviously interested in giving Gurriel more time at shortstop given his status as a franchise building block. One answer could be to deploy Gurriel at third base until Guerrero is promoted, giving the Jays a few weeks to see if Tulowitzki can still contribute, but there is simply so much uncertainty around Tulowitzki’s health that the Blue Jays will consider anything they can get from him in 2019 as a bonus.

 

With Gurriel penciled in at shortstop, Aledmys Diaz or Brandon Drury are the favorites to be the pre-Guerrero third baseman, and both players should also vie for playing time with Devon Travis at second base. Travis stayed healthy in 2018 but wasn’t very productive, while Drury only played 26 MLB games last season. The Jays would be selling low on either, and could just keep everyone around to compete for the job in the short-term while keeping second base warm for prospects Bo Bichette or Cavan Biggio (or maybe even Gurriel, depending on who ends up playing where in the future). Toronto already declined a club option on Yangervis Solarte and will likely part ways with him, given their other infield options.

 

More trade possibilities abound in the outfield, as any of Grichuk, Hernandez, or Kevin Pillar could be playing elsewhere on Opening Day. Pillar’s elite center field glove showed some decline last season, dropping to a negative value (-2) in Defensive Runs Saved with only slightly positive grades from UZR/150 (+2.5) and Statcast’s Outs Above Average (+1). Pillar has never been a productive hitter, so if he isn’t offering excellent defense, he doesn’t bring much to the table as an everyday player. At a projected $5.3MM arbitration salary, a case can be made for Pillar as a non-tender candidate, with some combination of Grichuk, Anthony Alford or Billy McKinney then handling center field. That said, it’s also quite possible that another club would like to take a shot on Pillar at that price, particularly since he has another season of arb eligibility remaining. He’s also a candidate to stay and play in hopes that he’ll be of interest at the trade deadline.

 

Though the Jays have just under $113MM in payroll commitments in 2019, that number drops to under $21MM the following year, and Gurriel is the only player under contract beyond the 2020 season. This opens up more trade possibilities for the team, as Toronto could absorb a large salary from another team in order to also acquire some prospects or MLB-ready talents.

 

There’s really no shortage of what the Blue Jays “could” do this winter now that the rebuild is fully on, though it’s probably safer to expect a few deals and modest free agent signings (like last offseason) rather than a huge overhaul. As noted, the Jays have so many possible trade candidates still looking to rebuild value (Stroman, Sanchez, Giles, Travis, Pillar) that much of the real heavy lifting on the trade front might not take place until the middle of the 2019 season.

 

The Jays have already made one intriguing move this winter, however, in hiring Charlie Montoyo as the team’s new manager. Montoyo is a well-respected baseball man with 22 years of experience in the Rays organization as a minor league manager and a coach on the Major League staff, though he has no prior ties to either the Jays, Atkins, or team president Mark Shapiro. This makes Montoyo a completely fresh voice within the dugout, and thus perhaps a fitting choice to steward the Blue Jays into their new era.

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/11/offseason-outlook-toronto-blue-jays-10.html

[Boxcar]

I don't understand why you'd move Diaz off short for Gurriel. Makes no sense at all.

[Todd]

I still think the jays could and should take at least four or five

players off the teams 40 man roster.

[Slade]

I still think the jays could and should take at least four or five

players off the teams 40 man roster.

 

 

Easily.

 

Smith Jr

Pompey

Travis

Solarte

Maile

Leiter Jr.

Pillar

Davis

[Terminator]

What the hell are we going to do with Tulo? Let's assume he can play 100 games next year. I highly doubt he can play SS anymore. If we traded Smoak could we see him play some 1B? Pretty bad bat for 1B. Nomar did that late in his career.

[BTS]

What the hell are we going to do with Tulo? Let's assume he can play 100 games next year. I highly doubt he can play SS anymore. If we traded Smoak could we see him play some 1B? Pretty bad bat for 1B. Nomar did that late in his career.

 

Just two years and 38M left on his deal. If he's no longer able to play short at an acceptable rate I think you just send him home.

[Laika]

A Hall of Fame career ruined by the Toronto Blue Jays. The organization should be ashamed.

[Spanky99]

Just two years and 38M left on his deal. If he's no longer able to play short at an acceptable rate I think you just send him home.

 

He's said if he doesn't play SS, he'd go home, lol.

[glory]

Saw a video the other day where Trollosi was interviewing Atkins, and when asked about Vlad’s arrival time, Atkins said he thinks they can field a good infield already while only mentioning Drury, Gurriel, and Diaz by name. It was only after specifically being asked about Tulo that Atkins even talked about him.

 

I think the Jays will move on somehow. I don’t think they have any interest in playing him.

[Spanky99]

By Gregor Chisholm MLB.com @gregorMLB

1:22 PM EST

 

TORONTO -- The market for free-agent starters likely won't be settled any time soon, and that's one reason the Blue Jays are expected to spend the early stages of the offseason scouring for trades.

 

Toronto won't be in the mix for the top group of starters reportedly on the block. Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, Madison Bumgarner, James Paxton and others of similar pedigree don't seem like realistic candidates, but a secondary tier will undoubtedly emerge in the coming weeks.

 

Pitchers with one year of control remaining -- such as New York's Sonny Gray and Pittsburgh's Ivan Nova -- could be of interest. Arizona's Robbie Ray is another possibility, while some of the bounce-back candidates include Kansas City's Danny Duffy and Tyler Chatwood of the Cubs.

 

The Blue Jays have the flexibility required to be creative. They have the available resources to add a starter through free agency, the depth in the Minor Leagues to facilitate a deal and some intriguing pieces -- particularly in the infield -- at the big league level who could be shopped to fill areas of need.

 

With the annual Winter Meetings less than a month away, here's a closer look at what the Blue Jays have to offer up:

 

 

IF Aledmys Diaz

 

The Blue Jays bought low on Diaz last offseason when they acquired him for Minor League outfielder J.B. Woodman. Injuries to Troy Tulowitzki and Josh Donaldson opened the door for Diaz to play more often than expected, and he responded with a career-high 18 home runs in 422 at-bats. Diaz also proved capable of handling shortstop and third base, and there's little doubt he could handle second in a pinch as well. The 28-year-old Diaz regained value this year, and he's not eligible for free agency until after the 2022 season. Toronto has too many infielders, so something has to give.

 

2B Devon Travis

 

Travis' 2018 season was a bit of a mixed bag. The big positive was that Travis stayed healthy for the first time in his career, and he appeared in 103 games despite a lengthy stint in the Minors. The downside is that Travis underperformed with the bat and slashed .232/.275/.381. That's not going to get it done, but this is the same player who posted at least a .785 OPS in back-to-back seasons in '15-16. Other teams might be looking to buy low, and while Travis might not net much of a return on his own, he could be packaged with others.

 

IF/OF Brandon Drury

 

On the surface, it would be unusual for the Blue Jays to shop Drury just a few months after acquiring him from the Yankees. The 26-year-old remains under club control for the next three years, so he's an option for the present and the future. There are a lot of reasons to keep him, but Drury's versatility might be a luxury the Blue Jays don't need. Toronto is flush with options around the infield, and Drury is exactly the type of player that contending teams love to have. If a reliable arm with similar control is offered up for Drury, it would be hard for the Blue Jays to say no.

 

RHP Marcus Stroman or Aaron Sanchez

 

It might seem counterintuitive to acquire pitching by dealing away one of the only high-ceiling arms left, but Toronto needs to be open-minded. Stroman and Sanchez have just two years of control remaining, and their timelines don't match up with that of the rebuilding Blue Jays. Despite all of that, a trade this offseason seems somewhat unrealistic because both pitchers are coming off injury-plagued seasons and their values have taken a hit. Expect Toronto to shop these two next summer, and when it eventually happens, young controllable pitching will be the ideal return.

 

Prospect capital

 

The Blue Jays have a slew of prospects who are eligible for next month's Rule 5 Draft. The only way to guarantee protection is by placing them on the 40-man roster, but with four current vacancies, there won't be enough room for everyone. Outfielder Forrest Wall and right-handed pitchers Jacob Waguespack, Hector Perez, Jordan Romano, Jon Harris, Patrick Murphy, Yennsy Diaz and Jackson McClelland are some of the names who fall into this category. One option is packaging a couple of these prospects along with a higher-ranked player in the search for big league pitching.

[Dick_Pole]

Diaz is the best trade target by far out of the ones listed. Good player with control and versatility. The other players are more or less just seat-fillers until the young guys are ready. They actually fit well with the team's longer term strategy as lesser players with less control.

 

It's a shame because Diaz would be the perfect back up IF on a good team with no holes. But this team has a lack of pitching which takes priority over having a good backup IF in 2021.

[Slade]

What the hell are we going to do with Tulo? Let's assume he can play 100 games next year. I highly doubt he can play SS anymore. If we traded Smoak could we see him play some 1B? Pretty bad bat for 1B. Nomar did that late in his career.

 

I mean if he can't play next year, you just eat the money and move on or try to trade him for someone else's problem contract. We're rebuilding so not really as big as an issue people are making it out to be.

[Dick_Pole]

I mean if he can't play next year, you just eat the money and move on or try to trade him for someone else's problem contract. We're rebuilding so not really as big as an issue people are making it out to be.

 

There's gotta be an equivalently bad contract for a SP out there where at least someone can eat innings on this team rather than juggle Tulo with the other IF options. How's Ian Kennedy doing?

[Abomination]

How's Ian Kennedy doing?

 

Last year he succeeded in stinking it up without eating innings.

[Jimcanuck]

Cant see Drury being moved. He'll have every opportunity to justify the Happ deal to the casuals.

 

Diaz, pillar, smoak, giles, could be moved from the big league team, guys like kevin smith, biggio potential milb movers. For pitching, of course.

[Spanky99]

Cant see Drury being moved. He'll have every opportunity to justify the Happ deal to the casuals.

 

Diaz, pillar, smoak, giles, could be moved from the big league team, guys like kevin smith, biggio potential milb movers. For pitching, of course.

 

Why?

[Spanky99]

Last year he succeeded in stinking it up without eating innings.

 

I think that went over your head lad. There's plenty of guys that can soak up innings in a trade where it matches, plus MLB innings can be bought at worst in early February.

[glory]

There’s no way Drury is the long term 3b even if he hits well for 3 weeks before Vlad comes up so unless they plan to use him primarily at 2b I’m not sure where the fit is. Maybe 1B if he actually learns how to hit? Having guys who can play multiple spots is a luxury but they have to hit enough.

[Terminator]

There’s no way Drury is the long term 3b even if he hits well for 3 weeks before Vlad comes up so unless they plan to use him primarily at 2b I’m not sure where the fit is. Maybe 1B if he actually learns how to hit? Having guys who can play multiple spots is a luxury but they have to hit enough.

 

I think his best position is 2B. It's the one spot where his bat actually looks enticing even if he doesn't show a ton of improvement and from what little defensive metrics he has it appears to be his best position (for whatever that's worth).

 

I'm not high on him at all though. Ideally he's a bench guy who finds 400 ABs sprinkled across 2B/3B/LF and maybe even some 1B with most of those coming from 2B and 3B where his bat actually plays some.

 

He's not a bad guy to have around though given his versatility and the non-zero chance he has to turn into a regular. Seems like we have a whole team's worth of those guys right now and it will be fun to see who can play themselves into something that sticks long term.

[Spanky99]

There’s no way Drury is the long term 3b even if he hits well for 3 weeks before Vlad comes up so unless they plan to use him primarily at 2b I’m not sure where the fit is. Maybe 1B if he actually learns how to hit? Having guys who can play multiple spots is a luxury but they have to hit enough.

 

What does that tell you?

[Abomination]

I think that went over your head lad. There's plenty of guys that can soak up innings in a trade where it matches, plus MLB innings can be bought at worst in early February.

 

Maybe, I'm really tired. I mean, we could probably trade him for a Homer Bailey type too, but honestly I'd rather Tulo in that exchange.

[Spanky99]

Maybe, I'm really tired. I mean, we could probably trade him for a Homer Bailey type too, but honestly I'd rather Tulo in that exchange.

 

So would I, we'll see. If he's healthy who knows.

[P2F]

Please trade for Robbie Ray.

[BTS]

Tulo + his 2021 buyout money for Wei-yin Chen?

[glory]

Tulo + his 2021 buyout money for Wei-yin Chen?

 

This is the type of trade that would make sense. Chen gives the Jays a bottom of rotation option (or long man) and Tulo would probably agree to the trade just so he can play SS on grass. All Atkins has to say is "you won't be starting at short" and I'm sure he'll waive his NTC to play anywhere.

[Jimcanuck]

Why?

 

Have to give up something to get something. If the braves come calling with surplus pitchers to deal, want giles+, you work something out