Lourdes Gurriel Jr Discussion

[John_Havok]

Well the O-Contact is fine, 70% is around Mike Trout's career average, the O-Swing for sure needs to drop a lot. He swings and misses at exactly a league average rate so that's fine, but would likely go down if he stopped swinging at pitches outside the zone.

 

Generally speaking, taking a generational talent's 1 number and saying that another guy has that same similar number doesn't mean it will also work for him.

[Orgfiller]

Generally speaking, taking a generational talent's 1 number and saying that another guy has that same similar number doesn't mean it will also work for him.

 

I was just pointing out that his contact rate on those pitches is fine, plenty of good hitters are around ~70%, on the other hand the majority of elite hitters have low O-swing rates.

[Grant77]

I think there's more potential in Gurriel's bat than he is getting credit for. At age 24 and in only his second year in NA, he's absolutely crushing the ball. His LD% and contact profile are excellent and I think he can maintain a high BABIP because of it. There's still plenty of time for him to refine his approach and I think we'll see better results in 2019.

 

As for his defense, I think we've seen enough to say that he isn't a shortstop. I think he can be decent at 2B with more time, however.

 

I'm fine rolling with Diaz, Travis, and Gurriel in the middle infield next year. They have been the least of our problems.

[Grant77]

Since everyone loves my comps, he's got a reasonably similar profile to Howie Kendrick and Starlin Castro if the defense can be average at 2B. They both carried a 5% walk rate and moderate power, but still provide plenty of value.

[Terminator]

If you think above avg regular is his realistic ceiling (say, 75th percentile outcome) then what the heck is his upper ceiling? You think he could possibly be a STAR? There are a bunch of holes in his game.

 

I'm just spitballing but if we put actual numbers to it I see what you are saying.

 

So an above average regular would be what, 2.5 WAR? What would a star be? I think he's probably like a 50% probability to be a 1.5 to 2 WAR player. He hits the ball hard and showed massive amounts of improvement from year 1 to year 2. I think he can improve even more.

[Grant77]

I'm just spitballing but if we put actual numbers to it I see what you are saying.

 

So an above average regular would be what, 2.5 WAR? What would a star be? I think he's probably like a 50% probability to be a 1.5 to 2 WAR player. He hits the ball hard and showed massive amounts of improvement from year 1 to year 2. I think he can improve even more.

 

He's already doing that right now if you give him 600 PA. Any improvement, presumably on defense and maybe a few more walks, would make him above average.

[tercet]

He's already doing that right now if you give him 600 PA. Any improvement, presumably on defense and maybe a few more walks, would make him above average.

 

Grant you have been around on this forum for nearly 10 years, you should be smart enough at this point to not make such stupid predictions that are 99.99% going to be wrong.

[tercet]

April 1st - June 30th - 71PA, 222/243/361 - 63wrc+

 

July 1st - July 31st - 73PA, 423/438/648 -200wrc+

 

August 1st - Present - 54PA, 188/241/208 - 23wrc+

[Jimcanuck]

April 1st - June 30th - 71PA, 222/243/361 - 63wrc+

 

July 1st - July 31st - 73PA, 423/438/648 -200wrc+

 

August 1st - Present - 54PA, 188/241/208 - 23wrc+

 

And?

 

SSS applies

[Grant77]

Grant you have been around on this forum for nearly 10 years, you should be smart enough at this point to not make such stupid predictions that are 99.99% going to be wrong.

 

It's well over 10 years now, I started in 2005.

 

I never made any predictions in that particular post, just a comment on his current level of play. Are you seriously giving me a 54 PA sample to prove that he sucks?

[tercet]

He's been a terrible hitter his entire MILB career and 2/3 of his MLB career, to go along with being a terrible defender the entire time.

 

Just use some common sense, cmon..

[Grant77]

He's been a terrible hitter his entire MILB career and 2/3 of his MLB career, to go along with being a terrible defender the entire time.

 

Just use some common sense, cmon..

 

A career that spans less than 2 seasons. Common sense involves looking at his major league numbers as a whole without subdividing them into random splits and removing the good parts.

[bones10]

He's been a terrible hitter his entire MILB career and 2/3 of his MLB career, to go along with being a terrible defender the entire time.

 

Just use some common sense, cmon..

 

Gurriel is literally a 40 fv prospect why do you pick on these guys hahaha.

 

hes doing objectively well through his 50 games of his career.

[John_Havok]

Gurriel is literally a 40 fv prospect why do you pick on these guys hahaha.

 

hes doing objectively well through his 50 games of his career.

 

If you haven't figured out that tercet likes to pick very obviously flawed players and project them to fail, which would be correct like 90% of the time, while at the same time inventing a narrative from everyone else that the same player is obviously an all-star so he can somehow be seen as a know-all prophet while evryone else is just a cheerleading muppet, then you haven't read enough if his posts.

 

He also doesn't understand babip, variance, or sample size.

[bones10]

If you haven't figured out that tercet likes to pick very obviously flawed players and project them to fail, which would be correct like 90% of the time, while at the same time inventing a narrative from everyone else that the same player is obviously an all-star so he can somehow be seen as a know-all prophet while evryone else is just a cheerleading muppet, then you haven't read enough if his posts.

 

He also doesn't understand babip, variance, or sample size.

 

That's pretty intelligent trolling though, unless of courses hes not actually trolling and is just narccistic *******. Tough to say, mostly fun to read though.

 

I've also seen you, or someone else call him about this before, and he offered no reply or poor reply that I can remember which should give everyone a hint into his motivations here.

[John_Havok]

That's pretty intelligent trolling though, unless of courses hes not actually trolling and is just narccistic *******. Tough to say, mostly fun to read though.

 

I've also seen you, or someone else call him about this before, and he offered no reply or poor reply that I can remember which should give everyone a hint into his motivations here.

 

Narcissistic ******* pretty much covers it.

[TheOutsider]

Statcast loves Gurriel!

 

- Average exit velocity of 90.5mph, where MLB average this year is 87.3

- Batted Ball profile is quite good and balanced, fewer weak groundballs (Topped) than average and average amount of balls popped up. More balls hit with extra-base velo/trajectory than average.

- Average whiffs, 23.5% which is 0.4% below MLB average.

 

The above amounted to (before yesterday's game, I think) a .352 XWOBA, which would rank him below Altuve, Torres and Baez as 2B, but roughly equal to Zobrist, LeMahieu, Lowrie and Descalso and quite a bit higher than the vast majority of middle infielders, obviously.

 

Everyone can see that Gurriel has flaws in his game, but an ability to make hard contact is definitely not one of them.

[Agk47]

A career that spans less than 2 seasons. Common sense involves looking at his major league numbers as a whole without subdividing them into random splits and removing the good parts.

 

I think it’s fair to say he has a tone of natural ability; he is a gifted athletic.

 

Whether it’s because he is a bit raw or just rusty and behind the curve due to multiple extended layoffs; the results haven’t quite been there yet.

 

Very Tim Beckham-ish but stronger and probably more “toolsy”.

[wilko]

>

[Boxcar]

Statcast loves Gurriel!

 

- Average exit velocity of 90.5mph, where MLB average this year is 87.3

- Batted Ball profile is quite good and balanced, fewer weak groundballs (Topped) than average and average amount of balls popped up. More balls hit with extra-base velo/trajectory than average.

- Average whiffs, 23.5% which is 0.4% below MLB average.

 

The above amounted to (before yesterday's game, I think) a .352 XWOBA, which would rank him below Altuve, Torres and Baez as 2B, but roughly equal to Zobrist, LeMahieu, Lowrie and Descalso and quite a bit higher than the vast majority of middle infielders, obviously.

 

Everyone can see that Gurriel has flaws in his game, but an ability to make hard contact is definitely not one of them.

 

Love seems like a strong word.

[TheOutsider]

Love seems like a strong word.

 

Not a native speaker and I don't know how Canadians use their adjectives, but based on what I see on TV and such, Americans love their hyperboles. I feel like saying 'Statcast likes Gurriel' would be more appropriate if Statcast thought he was a league average hitter, but he's quite a bit above that...

[tercet]

Thanks for all of the love JH, I see you've gone full on spanky/burlingtonbandit at this point.

 

But what is the admiration with VGJ?

[L54]

Thanks for all of the love JH, I see you've gone full on spanky/burlingtonbandit at this point.

 

But what is the admiration with VGJ?

 

Did you mix up elite Toronto Blue Jay prospects??

[tercet]

Yep, too many long nights with poker...

[tercet]

Also LOL LGJ hitting 227/278/295 since coming back from the DL and Buck/Tabby thinking he is a good player since he had two bunt singles the last two games.

 

Chris Leroux calling him a young skinny A-Rod toolol

[Boxcar]

*Gurribabip

[tercet]

Yea poor Gurribabip will be stuck in AAA for several years like Rusney Castillo.

[Jimcanuck]

Hey tercet, are we going to do this for every guy that comes up from the minors?

[Boxcar]

Hey tercet, are we going to do this for every guy that comes up from the minors?

 

I don't think he has the balls to do this with Vlad, but maybe Bo Bichette.

[tercet]

Hey tercet, are we going to do this for every guy that comes up from the minors?

 

Naw, just the ones that are destined to suck despite putting up random godly unsustainable streaks to start their mlb career (TH, SRF, LGJ).

 

I didn't hate on Borucki or DJ this year though, tercet approved!