Donaldson Aug 31 Trade Thread

[Spanky99]

Just making the joke that if we didn’t get what we got, and had only received a bag of trash, then we still would have done better than what the Indians got.

 

I see, dude's still a great player. Only Lindor showed up.

[G-Snarls]

I see, dude's still a great player. Only Lindor showed up.

 

Jose Ramirez, Edwin Encarnacion, Josh Donaldson combined 2 for 32 with 11 strikeouts for the series

 

Ouch

[Spanky99]

Jose Ramirez, Edwin Encarnacion, Josh Donaldson combined 2 for 32 with 11 strikeouts for the series

 

Ouch

 

Yeah, they certainly shoulder the blame as does the entire pitching staff, save for Carrasco and Clevinger. They were blown away in all facets of the game, and they're one of the best teams in the League. SSS and all, the Astros were incredible.

[Dr. Dinger]

This whole "comp picks are statistically worthless" argument doesn't hold a lot of water for me. Carter Kieboom was a comp pick, Dakota Hudson was a comp pick. Nate Pearson, Mike Soroka, Christin Stewart, Ryan Mountcastle, Austin Riley, Justus Sheffield, Michael Kopech, Jack Flaherty, all of these guys were comp picks, and that's just in the last few seasons. And that doesn't even include notable prospects picked after the comp round, like Bo Bichette, Alex Verdugo, Sean Reid-Foley, Brent Honeywell, Scott Kingery, Harrison Bader, Paul DeJong, Jesus Luzardo, Bryse Wilson, Cavan Biggio, etc etc etc. Again, I'm only going back to 2015 here. There are absolutely plenty of good prospects who can be drafted in the comp round or later, especially by an astute front office such as ours. Each of those guys is considerably more valuable than Merryweather as an asset. If Atkins feels that Merryweather is a diamond in the rough, that's fine, I certainly don't know better than him. But to say that comp picks are worthless is categorically false.

[Spanky99]

This whole "comp picks are statistically worthless" argument doesn't hold a lot of water for me. Carter Kieboom was a comp pick, Dakota Hudson was a comp pick. Nate Pearson, Mike Soroka, Christin Stewart, Ryan Mountcastle, Austin Riley, Justus Sheffield, Michael Kopech, Jack Flaherty, all of these guys were comp picks, and that's just in the last few seasons. And that doesn't even include notable prospects picked after the comp round, like Bo Bichette, Alex Verdugo, Sean Reid-Foley, Brent Honeywell, Scott Kingery, Harrison Bader, Paul DeJong, Jesus Luzardo, Bryse Wilson, Cavan Biggio, etc etc etc. Again, I'm only going back to 2015 here. There are absolutely plenty of good prospects who can be drafted in the comp round or later, especially by an astute front office such as ours. Each of those guys is considerably more valuable than Merryweather as an asset. If Atkins feels that Merryweather is a diamond in the rough, that's fine, I certainly don't know better than him. But to say that comp picks are worthless is categorically false.

 

Ross Atkins said himself that the player acquired was worth more than what they thought of the compensatory pick value, no one's saying the comp pick is useless. I was on team QO, since the trade I've not minded the return of Merryweather, imo.

[glory]

This whole "comp picks are statistically worthless" argument doesn't hold a lot of water for me. Carter Kieboom was a comp pick, Dakota Hudson was a comp pick. Nate Pearson, Mike Soroka, Christin Stewart, Ryan Mountcastle, Austin Riley, Justus Sheffield, Michael Kopech, Jack Flaherty, all of these guys were comp picks, and that's just in the last few seasons. And that doesn't even include notable prospects picked after the comp round, like Bo Bichette, Alex Verdugo, Sean Reid-Foley, Brent Honeywell, Scott Kingery, Harrison Bader, Paul DeJong, Jesus Luzardo, Bryse Wilson, Cavan Biggio, etc etc etc. Again, I'm only going back to 2015 here. There are absolutely plenty of good prospects who can be drafted in the comp round or later, especially by an astute front office such as ours. Each of those guys is considerably more valuable than Merryweather as an asset. If Atkins feels that Merryweather is a diamond in the rough, that's fine, I certainly don't know better than him. But to say that comp picks are worthless is categorically false.

 

None of that matters if JD accepts the qualifying offer. I think that was the whole point of the trade. They did not want him back in 2019, and it was looking like that was the only option if they gave him the QO.

[Spanky99]

None of that matters if JD accepts the qualifying offer. I think that was the whole point of the trade. They did not want him back in 2019, and it was looking like that was the only option if they gave him the QO.

 

They wouldn't just a make a trade unless they believe he's worth more than that pick, if he accepts he accepts, no big deal, now you hope for the bounceback and worth much more by early July? Meh...

[G-Snarls]

They wouldn't just a make a trade unless they believe he's worth more than that pick, if he accepts he accepts, no big deal, now you hope for the bounceback and worth much more by early July? Meh...

 

Yeah

 

I woukd have not minded Donaldson accepting rhe qualifying offer

 

Would have made the team better next year and he might have increased his trade value too if you then dealt him mid season

 

That said he probably would have tuned it down just like eveyone else, rightly or wrongly

[Laika]

This whole "comp picks are statistically worthless" argument doesn't hold a lot of water for me. Carter Kieboom was a comp pick, Dakota Hudson was a comp pick. Nate Pearson, Mike Soroka, Christin Stewart, Ryan Mountcastle, Austin Riley, Justus Sheffield, Michael Kopech, Jack Flaherty, all of these guys were comp picks, and that's just in the last few seasons. And that doesn't even include notable prospects picked after the comp round, like Bo Bichette, Alex Verdugo, Sean Reid-Foley, Brent Honeywell, Scott Kingery, Harrison Bader, Paul DeJong, Jesus Luzardo, Bryse Wilson, Cavan Biggio, etc etc etc. Again, I'm only going back to 2015 here. There are absolutely plenty of good prospects who can be drafted in the comp round or later, especially by an astute front office such as ours. Each of those guys is considerably more valuable than Merryweather as an asset. If Atkins feels that Merryweather is a diamond in the rough, that's fine, I certainly don't know better than him. But to say that comp picks are worthless is categorically false.

 

The worth of a compensation pick is a math question, not a question to be answered from a rough cross-section of anecdotes.

[glory]

The worth of a compensation pick is a math question, not a question to be answered from a rough cross-section of anecdotes.

 

Yeah there is a dollar value attached to the comp pick. Don't know the exact number, but I'm confident that Merryweather is worth more than that. Remember this pick is after the 2nd round, not the 1st. We are talking about a pick in the 75 to 80 range.

[Boxcar]

This whole "comp picks are statistically worthless" argument doesn't hold a lot of water for me. Carter Kieboom was a comp pick, Dakota Hudson was a comp pick. Nate Pearson, Mike Soroka, Christin Stewart, Ryan Mountcastle, Austin Riley, Justus Sheffield, Michael Kopech, Jack Flaherty, all of these guys were comp picks, and that's just in the last few seasons. And that doesn't even include notable prospects picked after the comp round, like Bo Bichette, Alex Verdugo, Sean Reid-Foley, Brent Honeywell, Scott Kingery, Harrison Bader, Paul DeJong, Jesus Luzardo, Bryse Wilson, Cavan Biggio, etc etc etc. Again, I'm only going back to 2015 here. There are absolutely plenty of good prospects who can be drafted in the comp round or later, especially by an astute front office such as ours. Each of those guys is considerably more valuable than Merryweather as an asset. If Atkins feels that Merryweather is a diamond in the rough, that's fine, I certainly don't know better than him. But to say that comp picks are worthless is categorically false.

 

I don't get it. Were you not listening when John went though this?

[Dr. Dinger]

The worth of a compensation pick is a math question, not a question to be answered from a rough cross-section of anecdotes.

 

That's black and white thinking. Not all draft classes are equal, nor can we be certain of Merryweather's projection.

[Dr. Dinger]

I don't get it. Were you not listening when John went though this?

 

John who?

[John_Havok]

Exactly.

 

There are always examples of guys who get picked in the 70-80 range that will end up being outliers and actually become good players.

 

The odds of that though are really low.

 

The odds of Merryweather outperforming whomever the Jays hypothetically picked in that range next year is quite a bit higher.

[Jimcanuck]

We are positive a pitcher that will be 27 1/2 years old when making his MLB debut, after recovering for over a year from TJS, has more value than a 75-80 range MiLB pick?

 

The question has to be solidly in the grey zone, there is no clear answer.

 

What may have swung it for the Jays was the possibility of JD accepting the QO, and based on what they know of his injury risk, concern of another lost season.

[John_Havok]

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/38198/prospectus-feature-draft-value-calculator/

[Dr. Dinger]

We are positive a pitcher that will be 27 1/2 years old when making his MLB debut, after recovering for over a year from TJS, has more value than a 75-80 range MiLB pick?

 

The question has to be solidly in the grey zone, there is no clear answer.

 

What may have swung it for the Jays was the possibility of JD accepting the QO, and based on what they know of his injury risk, concern of another lost season.

 

Agreed with all of this. It seems to me like the FO (for whatever reason) had salary/Donaldson specific concerns that coerced them to go this route. I don't think this is a simple case of Merryweather being valued more highly than a comp pick, especially since Merryweather projects to be essentially nothing. It's pretty clear that the Jays didn't want to risk Donaldson accepting the QO. I'll just have to accept that they have good information to have made that decision, since I personally wouldn't have had a problem with Donaldson on a one year deal at all.

[TheHurl]

What may have swung it for the Jays was the possibility of JD accepting the QO, and based on what they know of his injury risk, concern of another lost season.

 

And a clear broken relationship. When you are trying to get an entire organization to buy into your systems, and your best player won't follow...it sends a bad message.

[BTS]

At the End of the day in the past couple seasons with Shapiro and Atkins running the show, we've watched superstars Edwin, Bautista, Donaldson, AND Osuna leave the jays in one form or another and all the Jays have to show for it thus far is Morales, Giles and some,most likely, mediocre at-best starter. When Tulo shows up to ST, he's gonna look around and wonder WTH happened to the team. And he's the next one up lol not that he meant much other than last bit of 15 and 16 season. Just imagine if the Jays didn't have Vladdy to look forward to. Ouch.

 

So it goes when the team was relying on a bunch of 30-somethings with nothing in the upper minors to replace them. Hopefully we never see a team assembled like that again.

[John_Havok]

At the End of the day in the past couple seasons with Shapiro and Atkins running the show, we've watched superstars Edwin, Bautista, Donaldson, AND Osuna leave the jays in one form or another and all the Jays have to show for it thus far is Morales, Giles and some,most likely, mediocre at-best starter. When Tulo shows up to ST, he's gonna look around and wonder WTH happened to the team. And he's the next one up lol not that he meant much other than last bit of 15 and 16 season. Just imagine if the Jays didn't have Vladdy to look forward to. Ouch.

 

If all you see is Morales, Giles and Merryweather, you're not looking very hard

[Orgfiller]

It's too bad we couldn't retain superstars Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion while they were still very clearly in their prime.

[metafour]

we've watched superstars Edwin, Bautista, Donaldson, AND Osuna leave the jays in one form or another

 

Your definition of "superstar" is quite interesting considering that....

 

Encarnacion: 3.3 WAR total over 2 seasons since leaving.

Bautista: 1 WAR on three different teams in one season since leaving.

Donaldson: Missed a full season of games over the past two seasons, unlikely to play at a "superstar" level again given his age and mounting injuries.

Osuna: Shipped out on entirely non-baseball related terms. The only guy on your list who is actually likely to continue playing at an elite level, but he's still a f***ing reliever you dolt. A closer can not and is not a "superstar" player LOL.

[P2F]

There is nothing quite like a metafour mic drop post.

[glory]

Combined WAR of JD, Bautista, Edwin, Tulo, and Martin:

 

2015: 24.3

2016: 17.9

2017: 9.0

2018: 3.9

 

If only Shapiro extended these guys to long-term deals, or doubled down to add more expensive vets at the expense of prospects. Then we'd be in much better shape.

[Grant77]

So it goes when the team was relying on a bunch of 30-somethings with nothing in the upper minors to replace them. Hopefully we never see a team assembled like that again.

 

Back to back trips to the ALCS really sucked, I agree.

[Brownie19]

Back to back trips to the ALCS really sucked, I agree.

 

leave it to Grant to miss the obvious point.

[Krylian]

They didn't sell the farm in the previous 20 years and had no playoff appearances. There are pros and cons on both sides

[SaskJaysFan_2]

Combined WAR of JD, Bautista, Edwin, Tulo, and Martin:

 

2015: 24.3

2016: 17.9

2017: 9.0

2018: 3.9

 

If only Shapiro extended these guys to long-term deals, or doubled down to add more expensive vets at the expense of prospects. Then we'd be in much better shape.

 

I would love to have a $150M Jose Bautista deal at the moment. I think we all do.

[G-Snarls]

Combined WAR of JD, Bautista, Edwin, Tulo, and Martin:

 

2015: 24.3

2016: 17.9

2017: 9.0

2018: 3.9

 

If only Shapiro extended these guys to long-term deals, or doubled down to add more expensive vets at the expense of prospects. Then we'd be in much better shape.

 

Awesome awesome post. Just awesome.

 

A smart FO saw this decline coming from miles away.

 

(serious post by me acknowledging the excellence of both the serious part of the poster's post and the excellent use of sarcasm in the last line)

[G-Snarls]

I would love to have a $150M Jose Bautista deal at the moment. I think we all do.

 

Yeah. To pay him back for all his underpaid superstar years.

 

(sarcastic post to match the original poster's sarcasm)