Vlad Jr. - A Pre-Debut Extension

[Muck Bartinez]

Vlad Jr. - A Pre-Debut Extension

 

I was thinking about this last night with the topic of Morales being trash and how to get more out of the roster. It's become pretty obvious to everyone that he's basically a sunk cost and is costing the team money, wins, and flexibility. I feel it's becoming increasingly obvious that Vlad is basically MLB-ready, despite his age and lack of professional experience. There's probably no one that would argue that the Jays would be better off with Vlad in and Morales out, if things like money and service time are disregarded.

 

In order for it to make sense for the Jays to bring up Vladdy, I think there would have to be some sort of extension in place in order to make sure his call-up wouldn't cost the Jays a year or two of team control. But what would that even begin to look like?

 

Scott Kingery and Jon Singleton are the only two players to ever sign an extension with zero days of service time. I don't think the Singleton example applies here, as he signed a very team-friendly (or so it seemed at the time) 5 year, $10M in order to avoid a marijuana suspension. The Scott Kingery example is a good place to start.

 

According to this article, the extension is for 6 years and $24M, and then 3 team options that brings the total to $65M ($41M for the 1st 3 FA years). This seems like a good framework to work from.

 

At the time of his callup, Kingery was the number 35 overall prospect. Vlad is clearly a top 3, and with Acuna graduated he's probably 1 or 2. So with that in mind, I've got some questions:

 

1. What would you be comfortable with giving Vlad? Does his body type/defensive skill scare you off at all?

 

2. Do you think Vlad would be open to something like this? On one hand, he probably doesn't care as much about money since he came from an MLB family, and might only just want to play in the bigs as soon as possible. On the other hand, since his family doesn't need the immediate payout, he might be more willing to wait and not give up any of his FA years.

 

For the record, I'd start with 6 years, $42M, with 3 team options at $15M, $20M, $25M and see what he says.

[Dr. Dinger]

I've been saying this for a couple weeks now and it makes sense for both parties. Vlad could be in the big leagues tomorrow and have financial security while providing the opportunity for substantial surplus value for what we know is an extremely frugal Front Office. Getting team options for 3 of his FA years is a bit of a pipe dream, but it's nice to reach for the stars. I don't think there's any question that he can be an above average MLB hitter right away.

[z3r0s]

This is fun to think about. He's not a finished product, so the team would be justified keeping him in the AA most of the season, starting him in AAA next year and calling him up mid-year. The team doesn't want to 'waste' controllable years while he is developing. Offering a guaranteed deal of some magnitude is a risk to the MLB club in terms of potential career derailing injury. I don't think you are far off with what an extension would have to look like, with multiple option years. I don't know about the dollars, but its fun to think about.

 

The motivation is also interesting to think about. Like you say, he could be swayed by the opportunity to debut a year and a half quicker.

[Dr. Dinger]

This is fun to think about. He's not a finished product, so the team would be justified keeping him in the AA most of the season, starting him in AAA next year and calling him up mid-year. The team doesn't want to 'waste' controllable years while he is developing. Offering a guaranteed deal of some magnitude is a risk to the MLB club in terms of potential career derailing injury. I don't think you are far off with what an extension would have to look like, with multiple option years. I don't know about the dollars, but its fun to think about.

 

The motivation is also interesting to think about. Like you say, he could be swayed by the opportunity to debut a year and a half quicker.

 

FWIW, Vlad has repeatedly stated that his goal is to be in the majors before his 20th birthday.

[GoldBull]

I've been saying this for a couple weeks now and it makes sense for both parties. Vlad could be in the big leagues tomorrow and have financial security while providing the opportunity for substantial surplus value for what we know is an extremely frugal Front Office. Getting team options for 3 of his FA years is a bit of a pipe dream, but it's nice to reach for the stars. I don't think there's any question that he can be an above average MLB hitter right away.

 

From Vlad’s end, an extension also makes sense as it probably gets him to his “FA years” a year earlier.

 

Assuming no extension, we would probably start Vlad’s clock in mid-April 2019. I think that this gets him to FA by 2026.

 

Signing him to an extension now gets him to his FA years in 2025 - 1 year earlier.

 

From his point of view, I think that three years’ worth of options should only be thought of as two additional year under contract, making it more appealing.

[King]

This is fun to think about. He's not a finished product, so the team would be justified keeping him in the AA most of the season, starting him in AAA next year and calling him up mid-year. The team doesn't want to 'waste' controllable years while he is developing. Offering a guaranteed deal of some magnitude is a risk to the MLB club in terms of potential career derailing injury. I don't think you are far off with what an extension would have to look like, with multiple option years. I don't know about the dollars, but its fun to think about.

 

The motivation is also interesting to think about. Like you say, he could be swayed by the opportunity to debut a year and a half quicker.

I find it hard to justify keeping a 19 year old with a 200 wRC+ in the upper levels of the minors for another season and a half worth of PAs.

[AledmysDiaz]

Man what an international signing.

[Dr. Dinger]

Remember how Mark Shapiro gave Alex Anthopoulos a dressing down for mortgaging the future of the franchise in the Tulowitzki and David Price trades, but then it turned out that Shapiro inherited the best prospect in baseball from AA?

[z3r0s]

I find it hard to justify keeping a 19 year old with a 200 wRC+ in the upper levels of the minors for another season and a half worth of PAs.

 

defense is a thing as well tho. I'm not arguing its the right course, but it certainly could be justified.

[Spanky99]

I've been saying this for a couple weeks now and it makes sense for both parties. Vlad could be in the big leagues tomorrow and have financial security while providing the opportunity for substantial surplus value for what we know is an extremely frugal Front Office. Getting team options for 3 of his FA years is a bit of a pipe dream, but it's nice to reach for the stars. I don't think there's any question that he can be an above average MLB hitter right away.

 

Yeah, I've been saying the same thing since the Kingery deal, would love to sign him to a guaranteed contract.

[King]

defense is a thing as well tho. I'm not arguing its the right course, but it certainly could be justified.

lol

[Dr. Dinger]

defense is a thing as well tho. I'm not arguing its the right course, but it certainly could be justified.

 

It's probably a good idea to rotate Vlad and Donaldson through DH and 1B opportunities as well, if the team decides to pursue this option. It would provide more defensive flexibility than Morales, to say the least.

[Bobthe4th]

I think Vlad has the self confidence to turn down any contract offer that potentially delays free agency, and back himself to force the Jays to call him up.

 

If he gets a September call up this year and succeeds, and JD either leaves or becomes more of a DH due to injuries, then Vlad is going to be starting 3B in 2019 once a few weeks service time delays are done. That's probably better for his development then calling him up now - his bat seems ready but extra time in the field can only be a bonus.

[z3r0s]

lol

 

If you don't think there is a justification for holding back an uber prospect to hone in his defense, then you don't know baseball. We've seen this plenty of times in the history of the game.

 

Its not even that hard to justify. You could bring up someone to (presumably mash) as a 1B/DH, or you could try to develop him as a passable 3B and have a monster on your hands.

[King]

If you don't think there is a justification for holding back an uber prospect to hone in his defense, then you don't know baseball. We've seen this plenty of times in the history of the game.

 

Its not even that hard to justify. You could bring up someone to (presumably mash) as a 1B/DH, or you could try to develop him as a passable 3B and have a monster on your hands.

Yeah lets keep an uber prospect down for another year and a half to work on his defense. Holy f***, stop, please. Development at the major league level is a thing.

[burlingtonbandit]

I think any contract would have to blow past extensions out of the water. Vladdy doesn't need the $ as much because of his father but you could sell him on getting to the Majors faster.

 

I'd even offer him $60 Million/6 years with two club options at $20M and $25M.

[z3r0s]

Yeah lets keep an uber prospect down for another year and a half to work on his defense. Holy f***, stop, please. Development at the major league level is a thing.

 

you actually listening to what I say King? I'm not arguing they do this. I'm arguing that it is JUSTIFIABLE to do so, which helps give you leverage if you are trying to sell an extension. And it IS justifiable, as we have seen things like this throughout baseball history.

[Dr. Dinger]

you actually listening to what I say King? I'm not arguing they do this. I'm arguing that it is JUSTIFIABLE to do so, which helps give you leverage if you are trying to sell an extension. And it IS justifiable, as we have seen things like this throughout baseball history.

 

There is no possible way for Vlad to get promoted before September except via an extension, and he should know that. He could take money right now and be a full-time major leaguer, otherwise he'll have to wait another full year to get the permanent call. A year is a long time. He could take the extension and still hit free agency around age 27/28 and get another massive windfall, so it's a very real possibility that he'd consider it.

[Pendleton]

Pretty sure Vlad is already giving everyone a pre debut extension

[Bobthe4th]

There is no possible way for Vlad to get promoted before September except via an extension, and he should know that. He could take money right now and be a full-time major leaguer, otherwise he'll have to wait another full year to get the permanent call. A year is a long time. He could take the extension and still hit free agency around age 27/28 and get another massive windfall, so it's a very real possibility that he'd consider it.

 

If the Jays said sign an extension and we'll call you up now, wouldn't that cause issues with the Union?

[BTS]

Remember how Mark Shapiro gave Alex Anthopoulos a dressing down for mortgaging the future of the franchise in the Tulowitzki and David Price trades, but then it turned out that Shapiro inherited the best prospect in baseball from AA?

 

* 2nd best prospect in baseball.

[Dr. Dinger]

* 2nd best prospect in baseball.

 

Wrong. He was 2nd best; now he's the best.

[z3r0s]

Pretty sure Vlad is already giving everyone a pre debut extension

 

legit lol'd

[Dr. Dinger]

If the Jays said sign an extension and we'll call you up now, wouldn't that cause issues with the Union?

 

If anything the MLBPA would probably be more upset with Vlad for selling his FA years.

[BTS]

Wrong. He was 2nd best; now he's the best.

 

OK fine.

[z3r0s]

If the Jays said sign an extension and we'll call you up now, wouldn't that cause issues with the Union?

 

this is basically what happened with Kingery and Singleton is it not?

[Laika]

It's too pie-in-the-sky the dream about getting team options or any type of extension that would extend team control by a few years.

 

If his agent is any good, the only thing he should agree to is a deal that only covers what his arbitration years would currently cover. Vladdy could potentially be a FA for his age 26 season (if he's up in 2018 or breaks with the team in 2019) or his age 27 season (if he debuts a few weeks into 2019) - the Machado/Harper timeline. If he reaches anything approaching his ceiling then he could be looking at the biggest contract in baseball history when he's 26 or 27. Moving his free agency back at all will f*** with that significantly.

 

So here's the actual fun question - would you offer him a MEGA extension right now? A 12 or 14 year deal. Forget about the cute little Kingery template for now, which is only really on the table if Vladdy's representation is soft. What about guaranteeing something like:

 

$1M

$1.5

$2

$6

$12

$20

$25

$30

$30

$30

$30

$30

$30

$30

 

Negatives: Guaranteeing $277.5M to a teenager!!!

Negatives: You'd have to worry if it would f*** with his mental state / development / motivation.

Pros: Controlling Vladdy through his age ~32 season (or whatever) - all of his prime years, probably.

Pros: You bet Baltimore and Washington wished they had this type of deal with Harper or Machado years ago.

Pros: If he hits his ceiling, $30M will probably be under his market value as an elite player.

[Bobthe4th]

It's too pie-in-the-sky the dream about getting team options or any type of extension that would extend team control by a few years.

 

If his agent is any good, the only thing he should agree to is a deal that only covers what his arbitration years would currently cover. Vladdy could potentially be a FA for his age 26 season (if he's up in 2018 or breaks with the team in 2019) or his age 27 season (if he debuts a few weeks into 2019) - the Machado/Harper timeline. If he reaches anything approaching his ceiling then he could be looking at the biggest contract in baseball history when he's 26 or 27. Moving his free agency back at all will f*** with that significantly.

 

So here's the actual fun question - would you offer him a MEGA extension right now? A 12 or 14 year deal. Forget about the cute little Kingery template for now, which is only really on the table if Vladdy's representation is soft. What about guaranteeing something like:

 

$1M

$1.5

$2

$6

$12

$20

$25

$30

$30

$30

$30

$30

$30

$30

 

Negatives: Guaranteeing $277.5M to a teenager!!!

Negatives: You'd have to worry if it would f*** with his mental state / development / motivation.

Pros: Controlling Vladdy through his age ~32 season (or whatever) - all of his prime years, probably.

Pros: You bet Baltimore and Washington wished they had this type of deal with Harper or Machado years ago.

Pros: If he hits his ceiling, $30M will probably be under his market value as an elite player.

 

Definitely not, that would be insane. Vlad can still bust (or eat his way out of the league).

[Spanky99]

If the Jays said sign an extension and we'll call you up now, wouldn't that cause issues with the Union?

 

Meh, that's what the Phillies did with Kingery... I think it's a + for both sides. Here's an article about your question on the matter in relation to the Kingery contract.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/scott-kingery-and-the-problem-of-the-prisoners-dilemma/

[Bobthe4th]

this is basically what happened with Kingery and Singleton is it not?

 

Yeah - and the Jays aren't going to be blatantly open about negotiations (i.e. don't sign and we make you wait a year).

 

Kingery had already made the opening day roster before signing his extension, but no doubt that was part of the negotiations.