Tercet bets against himself, loses $500

[Pendleton]

At what point are you going to concede that he's a decent player?

 

Gets way more attention by sticking to his story, and clearly that's been the motivation here the entire time.

[The Cats Ass]

Maybe Teoscar is a pure LFer at heart. His defense looks better there, and his bat plays better when he's in left.

 

 

I'll take a 1.032 OPS from my LFer anyday.

[The Cats Ass]

Stats for LF... Atleast 110 PAs

 

[burlingtonbandit]

375 babip, 5.6%bb, 31%k, the mirage is strong throughout June..

 

But we should just induct him into the HOF

 

LOL VARIANCE

 

Conveniently leaves out though .303 ISO...

[tercet]

At what point are you going to concede that he's a decent player?

 

Not anytime soon imo, the underlying stats still say he cant keep this up. It's possible he could be a freak of nature and keep up this performance with his underlying stats. At what point will I admit he is a decent hitter? I don't know maybe maybe 750-1000 ABs? Tons of similar free swingers have had success over 500~ABS.

 

Look at Grichuk, he has a better stats line then Teoscar over the last couple weeks, but no way he will keep that up. They are pretty much the same hitter, they can run into random hot streaks when they face a streak of mistake pitches.

[tercet]

Gets way more attention by sticking to his story, and clearly that's been the motivation here the entire time.

 

Naw, I've been right and wrong plenty of times on this forum over the last 11-12 years. I'll own my decision either way.

[tercet]

Conveniently leaves out though .303 ISO...

 

Uhh sure, I don't think I've ever posted ISO before on this forum.

[burlingtonbandit]

Uhh sure, I don't think I've ever posted ISO before on this forum.

 

That explains the lack of baseball knowledge.

[tercet]

That explains the lack of baseball knowledge.

 

Hmm sure?

 

I guess ISO over 350 ABs for one player is more reliable then basic bb/k ratios of thousands of similar free-swinging type baseball hitters.

 

Cmon seriously

[tercet]

I won 12k usd back in April when in Washington, dc for 4 days when the Raptors were in town for the playoffs. Some 40~ year old asian gambler shoved 3000$ at 10/25 with 27 offsuit when I had QQ and I won a 6k pot. Will I win 3k usd every day I play poker? Naw. Will guys go-allin for 3000$ preflop with 27 offsuit every hand in poker? Very rarely

 

Variance is weird, in poker and baseball alike.

 

I'm doing my best to make an educated guess on Teoscar based off of similar type hitters in recent baseball history. I am not as optimistic on him as most.

 

I look forward to what the future brings!

[burlingtonbandit]

Hmm sure?

 

I guess ISO over 350 ABs for one player is more reliable then basic bb/k ratios of thousands of similar free-swinging type baseball hitters.

 

Cmon seriously

 

3 most important ways to measure offensive performance are ISO, BB and K rate. A guy with a great BB and K rate doesn't mean s*** if he hits for zero power.

 

Also no one gives a s*** how much you won in poker. You go out of your way to brag about it, and its annoying AF.

[tercet]

3 most important ways to measure offensive performance are ISO, BB and K rate. A guy with a great BB and K rate doesn't mean s*** if he hits for zero power.

 

Also no one gives a s*** how much you won in poker. You go out of your way to brag about it, and its annoying AF.

 

I'm trying to use analogies because of variance and samples which you don't seem to understand.

 

Teoscar is a flash in the pan, he will more then likely get figured out like every hitter similar to him has in the last 20~ years of his type has.

 

Here is quick filter, since 2000 of similar hitters to Teoscar.

 

BB 4-8, K > 25, PA >= 500

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaderssplits.aspx?splitArr=&strgroup=career&statgroup=2&startDate=2000-3-1&endDate=2018-11-1&filter=BB%25%7Crange%7C0.04%7C0.08,K%25%7Cgt%7C0.25,PA%7Cgt%7C500&position=B&statType=player&autoPt=true&players=&pg=0&pageItems=200&sort=16,1

 

Do you notice the trend? They all regress to the mean, or don't make it past 500 pa since they get figured out.

 

Is it possible that Teoscar could improve his bb/k ratios? Yes!

Is it possible that Teoscar could be better then every type of hitter similiar to him over the last 20 years? Yes!

 

Time will tell!

[tercet]

[TheHurl]

I'll take a $100 wager that Teoscar plays in Japan before he hits his 6 years of service time...if someone gives me 10 to 1 odds.

 

He just screams someone that ends up in Japan.

[tercet]

Weird things happen over small samples..

 

As we say in poker...

 

FISH OH A HEATER!!!!!!!!!

 

[tercet]

I'll take a $100 wager that Teoscar plays in Japan before he hits his 6 years of service time...if someone gives me 10 to 1 odds.

 

He just screams someone that ends up in Japan.

 

Nice bet, maybe some fanboy like BB would give you those odds since he is a bigtime Teoscar fanboy.

 

I'd only give you 1-1 bc that bet is pretty much a lock lol

 

Are you going to Queens Plate next weekend?

[Abomination]

I'll take a $100 wager that Teoscar plays in Japan before he hits his 6 years of service time...if someone gives me 10 to 1 odds.

 

He just screams someone that ends up in Japan.

 

With the MLB returning to play some regular season and exhibition games in Japan, you could win that bet even if Teoscar turns into a baseball god.

[burlingtonbandit]

I'm trying to use analogies because of variance and samples which you don't seem to understand.

 

Teoscar is a flash in the pan, he will more then likely get figured out like every hitter similar to him has in the last 20~ years of his type has.

 

Here is quick filter, since 2000 of similar hitters to Teoscar.

 

BB 4-8, K > 25, PA >= 500

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaderssplits.aspx?splitArr=&strgroup=career&statgroup=2&startDate=2000-3-1&endDate=2018-11-1&filter=BB%25%7Crange%7C0.04%7C0.08,K%25%7Cgt%7C0.25,PA%7Cgt%7C500&position=B&statType=player&autoPt=true&players=&pg=0&pageItems=200&sort=16,1

 

Do you notice the trend? They all regress to the mean, or don't make it past 500 pa since they get figured out.

 

Is it possible that Teoscar could improve his bb/k ratios? Yes!

Is it possible that Teoscar could be better then every type of hitter similiar to him over the last 20 years? Yes!

 

Time will tell!

 

Oh I understand what you are trying to do, just you are going out of your way to bring up your poker winnings into it when you could make a more simple analogy. Same reason you had to show off your seats for the Phillies game.

 

We'll see with Teoscar. If he can keep up his power then pitchers will be more careful which will increase his walk rate, which is why you don't see too many players on that leaderboard. Baseball is all about adjustments so remains to be seen how pitchers adjust and how he adjusts back. The swing is great though, and the power is legit.

[tercet]

Oh I understand what you are trying to do, just you are going out of your way to bring up your poker winnings into it when you could make a more simple analogy. Same reason you had to show off your seats for the Phillies game.

 

We'll see with Teoscar. If he can keep up his power then pitchers will be more careful which will increase his walk rate, which is why you don't see too many players on that leaderboard. Baseball is all about adjustments so remains to be seen how pitchers adjust and how he adjusts back. The swing is great though, and the power is legit.

 

Your a fanboy who doesn't understand variance, sample sizes, etc. I've tried multiple times in this thread over the last couple weeks to explain that to you how that works because with poker analogies having being playing it for over 10 years as it is the same thing as baseball when you look at the data. But you don't want to change (don't worry I was once like you maybe 10 yrs ago with Snider, JPA, Ruiz, Mills, etc).

 

You have to realize that maybe 95% of the time Teoscar is going to finish like everyone else in that leader board, because major league pitchers are good, when your a hacker, very rarely will walk rates just go up 50, 75%, etc. Sure once in a while a JD Martinez exists, but they are very very very rare.

 

I don't doubt he has power as I've said multiple times. But free-swingers/hackers almost never succeed long term vs major league pitching.

[burlingtonbandit]

Your a fanboy who doesn't understand variance, sample sizes, etc. I've tried multiple times in this thread over the last couple weeks to explain that to you how that works because with poker analogies having being playing it for over 10 years as it is the same thing as baseball when you look at the data. But you don't want to change (don't worry I was once like you maybe 10 yrs ago with Snider, JPA, Ruiz, Mills, etc).

 

You have to realize that maybe 95% of the time Teoscar is going to finish like everyone else in that leader board, because major league pitchers are good, when your a hacker, very rarely will walk rates just go up 50, 75%, etc. Sure once in a while a JD Martinez exists, but they are very very very rare.

 

I don't doubt he has power as I've said multiple times. But free-swingers/hackers almost never succeed long term vs major league pitching.

 

Lol I know a lot more about baseball than you. Hell, you didn't even cite ISO when talking about offence. I'm not saying he's the next Barry Bonds, just he's an above average offensive player if he can continue to hit the ball as hard as he does.

[tercet]

Lol I know a lot more about baseball than you. Hell, you didn't even cite ISO when talking about offence. I'm not saying he's the next Barry Bonds, just he's an above average offensive player if he can continue to hit the ball as hard as he does.

 

Sigh, no matter what evidence I show you, your going to be a delusional Teoscar fanboy.

 

First time I've heard the "Hell, you didn't even cite ISO when talking about offence" argument though.

 

No one in 20 years has kept up Teoscar's pace with his perhiperals over his last 300~ PA, but I guess he will be the exception and keep up this pace since your always right BB.

[TheHurl]

Are you going to Queens Plate next weekend?

 

Have not gambled well in 2018 and I'm working on the Saturday, then heading to Ottawa for the FIBA qualifier on Sunday.

[burlingtonbandit]

Sigh, no matter what evidence I show you, your going to be a delusional Teoscar fanboy.

 

First time I've heard the "Hell, you didn't even cite ISO when talking about offence" argument though.

 

No one in 20 years has kept up Teoscar's pace with his perhiperals over his last 300~ PA, but I guess he will be the exception and keep up this pace since your always right BB.

 

Adam Jones has had a pretty good career, Matt Kemp as well. I don't think he'll be anywhere that successful but Nick Castellanos isn't a bad comparison. I think a lot of people would gladly take 12 WAR over the next 6 years from Teoscar.

 

With the Flyball revolution people just don't care about strikeouts as much as they used to.

[John_Havok]

Adam Jones has had a pretty good career, Matt Kemp as well. I don't think he'll be anywhere that successful but Nick Castellanos isn't a bad comparison. I think a lot of people would gladly take 12 WAR over the next 6 years from Teoscar.

 

With the Flyball revolution people just don't care about strikeouts as much as they used to.

 

Getting an MLB regular over half a season, for 17 innings of a reliever via trade is pure piracy any way you look at it. Even if Teoscar puts up 2 WAR this year and never plays again it's worth it.

[burlingtonbandit]

Getting an MLB regular over half a season, for 17 innings of a reliever via trade is pure piracy any way you look at it. Even if Teoscar puts up 2 WAR this year and never plays again it's worth it.

 

Of course, I'm just saying valuing him as an asset from this day forward. With his defense 12 is probably too high.

[tercet]

Holy s*** your learning now and making some sense BB!

 

As I’ve said in the past with some help from BTS the most likely comps are Hunter Renfroe, Adam Duvall once variance evens out. It’s possible he could be a freak of nature and keep up his slg rate, but highly unlikely.

 

Adam Jones and Matt Kemp are more probable then his current pace, but still unlikely in my opinion. He needs to cut his swinging strike to be like them.

[thatoneguy]

Teoscar absolutely ate a probable HOF pitcher in Verlander (in the midst of a fantastic season) for breakfast yesterday. Even for a one game sample size, that was impressive.

[tercet]

Teoscar absolutely ate a probable HOF pitcher in Verlander (in the midst of a fantastic season) for breakfast yesterday. Even for a one game sample size, that was impressive.

 

Yea he turned on some nice fastballs up and away, but he has shown the ability to hit that pitch.

 

If he can learn to be more patient and stop swinging down & away ill buy a Teoscar jersey for BB and get it autographed.

[Krylian]

Teoscar reminds me a little of Joe Carter.

[Terminator]

Teoscar reminds me a little of Joe Carter.

 

That actually sounds about right. Nice 8 year run where he put up close to 2.5 WAR per year is about as good as we can realistically hope for.