Around Baseball 2018

[Bobthe4th]

Top 25 FA's according to Duquette...

 

https://www.mlb.com/news/ranking-top-2018-19-free-agents/c-294514102?tid=282421090

 

Donaldson sneaks in at 23rd, this season has probably cost him millions.

[Boxcar]

God bless you, Ray

 

f*** you Spanky

[Boxcar]

Damn that's a lot of intriguing names. This is the year to splurge. And hopefully to splooge.

[Spanky__99]

God bless you, Ray

 

f*** you Spanky

 

.

[Brownie19]

Top 25 FA's according to Duquette...

 

https://www.mlb.com/news/ranking-top-2018-19-free-agents/c-294514102?tid=282421090

 

Donaldson sneaks in at 23rd, this season has probably cost him millions.

 

http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/mlb/83462/2/top-111-free-agents

 

JD is 5th on this list!

[Brownie19]

Damn that's a lot of intriguing names. This is the year to splurge. And hopefully to splooge.

 

I was thinking the same thing. This sure seems like the best FA crop in recent years no?

Edited October 31, 2018 by Brownie19

[Dr. Dinger]

I would offer Bryce Harper 10 years, $350 million. Gladly. Front-loaded, preferably. Even with a very conservative projection and factoring in no WAR inflation over time, it would be easy to get surplus value on that sort of deal, to say nothing of the rabid fan response and surge in ticket sales that a signing like this would initiative.

 

[TABLE=width: 565]

[TR]

[TD]Year[/TD]

[TD]Age[/TD]

[TD]pWAR[/TD]

[TD]WAR$[/TD]

[TD]Salary[/TD]

[TD]Surplus Val[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]2019[/TD]

[TD]26[/TD]

[TD]4.5[/TD]

[TD]$45,000,000[/TD]

[TD]$40,000,000[/TD]

[TD]$5,000,000[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]2020[/TD]

[TD]27[/TD]

[TD]4.5[/TD]

[TD]$45,000,000[/TD]

[TD]$40,000,000[/TD]

[TD]$5,000,000[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]2021[/TD]

[TD]28[/TD]

[TD]4.5[/TD]

[TD]$45,000,000[/TD]

[TD]$40,000,000[/TD]

[TD]$5,000,000[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]2022[/TD]

[TD]29[/TD]

[TD]4.5[/TD]

[TD]$45,000,000[/TD]

[TD]$35,000,000[/TD]

[TD]$10,000,000[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]2023[/TD]

[TD]30[/TD]

[TD]4.5[/TD]

[TD]$45,000,000[/TD]

[TD]$35,000,000[/TD]

[TD]$10,000,000[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]2024[/TD]

[TD]31[/TD]

[TD]4[/TD]

[TD]$40,000,000[/TD]

[TD]$35,000,000[/TD]

[TD]$5,000,000[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]2025[/TD]

[TD]32[/TD]

[TD]3.5[/TD]

[TD]$35,000,000[/TD]

[TD]$35,000,000[/TD]

[TD]$0[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]2026[/TD]

[TD]33[/TD]

[TD]3[/TD]

[TD]$30,000,000[/TD]

[TD]$30,000,000[/TD]

[TD]$0[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]2027[/TD]

[TD]34[/TD]

[TD]2.5[/TD]

[TD]$25,000,000[/TD]

[TD]$30,000,000[/TD]

[TD]-$5,000,000[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]2028[/TD]

[TD]35[/TD]

[TD]2[/TD]

[TD]$20,000,000[/TD]

[TD]$30,000,000[/TD]

[TD]-$10,000,000[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]Totals[/TD]

[TD]-[/TD]

[TD]37.5[/TD]

[TD]$375,000,000[/TD]

[TD]$350,000,000[/TD]

[TD]$25,000,000[/TD]

[/TR]

[/TABLE]

[Orgfiller]

I wonder how much 2-3 years of Andrew McCutchen would cost. We could really use some stability in the outfield to go along with Grichuk and hopefully not Pillar.

[Laika]

I wonder how much 2-3 years of Andrew McCutchen would cost. We could really use some stability in the outfield to go along with Grichuk and hopefully not Pillar.

 

Really good question and hard to guess. Could be surprisingly low or surprisingly high!

[Ray]

How much is Michael Brantley projected to get? I would love to get him. With our outfield being a strikeout parade between Grichuk and Teoscar, a high-contact/OBP lefty would be a great fit.

[L54]

Seems more likely the Jays sign Lonnie Chisenhall than any of these bigger name OF’s

[P2F]

Nationals are reportedly finalizing a deal with Trevor Rosenthal.

[Bobthe4th]

I would offer Bryce Harper 10 years, $350 million. Gladly. Front-loaded, preferably. Even with a very conservative projection and factoring in no WAR inflation over time, it would be easy to get surplus value on that sort of deal, to say nothing of the rabid fan response and surge in ticket sales that a signing like this would initiative.

 

[TABLE=width: 565]

[TR]

[TD]Year[/TD]

[TD]Age[/TD]

[TD]pWAR[/TD]

[TD]WAR$[/TD]

[TD]Salary[/TD]

[TD]Surplus Val[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]2019[/TD]

[TD]26[/TD]

[TD]4.5[/TD]

[TD]$45,000,000[/TD]

[TD]$40,000,000[/TD]

[TD]$5,000,000[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]2020[/TD]

[TD]27[/TD]

[TD]4.5[/TD]

[TD]$45,000,000[/TD]

[TD]$40,000,000[/TD]

[TD]$5,000,000[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]2021[/TD]

[TD]28[/TD]

[TD]4.5[/TD]

[TD]$45,000,000[/TD]

[TD]$40,000,000[/TD]

[TD]$5,000,000[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]2022[/TD]

[TD]29[/TD]

[TD]4.5[/TD]

[TD]$45,000,000[/TD]

[TD]$35,000,000[/TD]

[TD]$10,000,000[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]2023[/TD]

[TD]30[/TD]

[TD]4.5[/TD]

[TD]$45,000,000[/TD]

[TD]$35,000,000[/TD]

[TD]$10,000,000[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]2024[/TD]

[TD]31[/TD]

[TD]4[/TD]

[TD]$40,000,000[/TD]

[TD]$35,000,000[/TD]

[TD]$5,000,000[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]2025[/TD]

[TD]32[/TD]

[TD]3.5[/TD]

[TD]$35,000,000[/TD]

[TD]$35,000,000[/TD]

[TD]$0[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]2026[/TD]

[TD]33[/TD]

[TD]3[/TD]

[TD]$30,000,000[/TD]

[TD]$30,000,000[/TD]

[TD]$0[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]2027[/TD]

[TD]34[/TD]

[TD]2.5[/TD]

[TD]$25,000,000[/TD]

[TD]$30,000,000[/TD]

[TD]-$5,000,000[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]2028[/TD]

[TD]35[/TD]

[TD]2[/TD]

[TD]$20,000,000[/TD]

[TD]$30,000,000[/TD]

[TD]-$10,000,000[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]Totals[/TD]

[TD]-[/TD]

[TD]37.5[/TD]

[TD]$375,000,000[/TD]

[TD]$350,000,000[/TD]

[TD]$25,000,000[/TD]

[/TR]

[/TABLE]

 

FWIW Harper only had a WAR of 3.5 this season. IMO he'll bounce back next year in the right situation but it's still a bit concerning.

[glory]

One of Brantley, Cutch, or Pollock would be nice, but not expecting a big OF signing.

[z3r0s]

FWIW Harper only had a WAR of 3.5 this season. IMO he'll bounce back next year in the right situation but it's still a bit concerning.

 

Harper was so bad in the field this year it looks like it really affected his overall value. He's never been that kind of bad.

He's a weird animal. The highs are super high. The lows are... still pretty good. He's anything consistent tho.

[Dr. Dinger]

FWIW Harper only had a WAR of 3.5 this season. IMO he'll bounce back next year in the right situation but it's still a bit concerning.

 

He also has a 9.3 WAR season in the bank and hasn't hit his physical peak. I'd argue those WAR projections are conservative, but unless he misses 50 games a season over the life of the contract, you'll be fine either way.

[Bobthe4th]

Harper was so bad in the field this year it looks like it really affected his overall value. He's never been that kind of bad.

He's a weird animal. The highs are super high. The lows are... still pretty good. He's anything consistent tho.

 

Yeah it’s really weird, alternates seasons between superstar level and just a good player. Potentially a sign he might struggle when he loses athleticism in his 30’s? Who knows. Maybe a new team could help him with consistency.

[Dick_Pole]

One of Brantley, Cutch, or Pollock would be nice, but not expecting a big OF signing.

 

Yeah. I know you're supposed to pick up WAR wherever you can, but this is really a team that should focus any FA dollars on pitching if there is any hope at all of competing next year. If the team has a choice between paying Brantley and paying Keuchel, I choose Keuchel.

[Jimcanuck]

I would offer Bryce Harper 10 years, $350 million. Gladly. Front-loaded, preferably. Even with a very conservative projection and factoring in no WAR inflation over time, it would be easy to get surplus value on that sort of deal, to say nothing of the rabid fan response and surge in ticket sales that a signing like this would initiative.

 

[TABLE=width: 565]

[TR]

[TD]Year[/TD]

[TD]Age[/TD]

[TD]pWAR[/TD]

[TD]WAR$[/TD]

[TD]Salary[/TD]

[TD]Surplus Val[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]2019[/TD]

[TD]26[/TD]

[TD]4.5[/TD]

[TD]$45,000,000[/TD]

[TD]$40,000,000[/TD]

[TD]$5,000,000[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]2020[/TD]

[TD]27[/TD]

[TD]4.5[/TD]

[TD]$45,000,000[/TD]

[TD]$40,000,000[/TD]

[TD]$5,000,000[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]2021[/TD]

[TD]28[/TD]

[TD]4.5[/TD]

[TD]$45,000,000[/TD]

[TD]$40,000,000[/TD]

[TD]$5,000,000[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]2022[/TD]

[TD]29[/TD]

[TD]4.5[/TD]

[TD]$45,000,000[/TD]

[TD]$35,000,000[/TD]

[TD]$10,000,000[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]2023[/TD]

[TD]30[/TD]

[TD]4.5[/TD]

[TD]$45,000,000[/TD]

[TD]$35,000,000[/TD]

[TD]$10,000,000[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]2024[/TD]

[TD]31[/TD]

[TD]4[/TD]

[TD]$40,000,000[/TD]

[TD]$35,000,000[/TD]

[TD]$5,000,000[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]2025[/TD]

[TD]32[/TD]

[TD]3.5[/TD]

[TD]$35,000,000[/TD]

[TD]$35,000,000[/TD]

[TD]$0[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]2026[/TD]

[TD]33[/TD]

[TD]3[/TD]

[TD]$30,000,000[/TD]

[TD]$30,000,000[/TD]

[TD]$0[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]2027[/TD]

[TD]34[/TD]

[TD]2.5[/TD]

[TD]$25,000,000[/TD]

[TD]$30,000,000[/TD]

[TD]-$5,000,000[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]2028[/TD]

[TD]35[/TD]

[TD]2[/TD]

[TD]$20,000,000[/TD]

[TD]$30,000,000[/TD]

[TD]-$10,000,000[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]Totals[/TD]

[TD]-[/TD]

[TD]37.5[/TD]

[TD]$375,000,000[/TD]

[TD]$350,000,000[/TD]

[TD]$25,000,000[/TD]

[/TR]

[/TABLE]

 

Problem is the first years of the deal will likely be wasted, the Jays simply will not be good enough. Of course one never knows, but realistically.....

 

The time to spend big is likely after 2020 season, for whoever is the Harper type available at that time

[Dr. Dinger]

Problem is the first years of the deal will likely be wasted, the Jays simply will not be good enough. Of course one never knows, but realistically.....

 

The time to spend big is likely after 2020 season, for whoever is the Harper type available at that time

 

Harper is going to be good for another 10 years, I fail to see the issue.

[Jimcanuck]

Harper is going to be good for another 10 years, I fail to see the issue.

 

No issue, just not a good business move.

[Boxcar]

Problem is the first years of the deal will likely be wasted, the Jays simply will not be good enough. Of course one never knows, but realistically.....

 

The time to spend big is likely after 2020 season, for whoever is the Harper type available at that time

 

I also think it's a good idea to just let this incredible crop of FAs fall to the wayside because it's like 1 or 2 years until the Jays are good. That would only be 8 or 9 years of Harper's deal that would be useful!

[Abomination]

He also has a 9.3 WAR season in the bank and hasn't hit his physical peak. I'd argue those WAR projections are conservative, but unless he misses 50 games a season over the life of the contract, you'll be fine either way.

 

I'd love to know if the big defensive decline is an aberration or the new norm. That said, this seems like a decent year to go after a big bat, with next offseason a good one for picking up an ace.

 

Dozier is interesting this offseason, coming off that bad second half. He doesn't fit our needs, but I feel like someone is going to get a bargain there.

[TheHurl]

I also think it's a good idea to just let this incredible crop of FAs fall to the wayside because it's like 1 or 2 years until the Jays are good. That would only be 8 or 9 years of Harper's deal that would be useful!

 

Yeah either getting in early on one of the mid-tier guys or at least being active in offers to the top guys, this is the year where I actually advocate free agency as a way to build

[glory]

As much as I like Shatkins, I don't think there's any chance they use free agency right now unless they get a reasonable mid-tier player (think Happ three years ago). Shapiro has openly said he hates free agency, and the Jays will have to grossly overpay to add a top free agent. I don't see this front office doing it.

[Jonn]

As much as I like Shatkins, I don't think there's any chance they use free agency right now unless they get a reasonable mid-tier player (think Happ three years ago). Shapiro has openly said he hates free agency, and the Jays will have to grossly overpay to add a top free agent. I don't see this front office doing it.

 

Atkins already stated at the end of the year press conference that he doesn't expect the team to be active in free agency. Will probably just add some veteran starting depth and relievers. Looking at a veteran Outfielder like McCutchen sounds like a good idea.

[Spanky__99]

Atkins already stated at the end of the year press conference that he doesn't expect the team to be active in free agency. Will probably just add some veteran starting depth and relievers. Looking at a veteran Outfielder like McCutchen sounds like a good idea.

 

No one listens, just their plans.

[glory]

Atkins already stated at the end of the year press conference that he doesn't expect the team to be active in free agency. Will probably just add some veteran starting depth and relievers. Looking at a veteran Outfielder like McCutchen sounds like a good idea.

 

I'm just guessing but I think they'll be active in free agency either next winter (if Rogers pushes for it) or more likely the winter before the 2021 season. I think they want to integrate as many young players as possible and then make the free agent splash(es) to supplement them. Similar to what the Cubs did with Lester prior to 2015. The team is not there yet.

 

I wouldn't mind adding a top free agent if the price/term is right, but not expecting it this winter.

[Spanky__99]

I'm just guessing but I think they'll be active in free agency either next winter (if Rogers pushes for it) or more likely the winter before the 2021 season. I think they want to integrate as many young players as possible and then make the free agent splash(es) to supplement them. Similar to what the Cubs did with Lester prior to 2015. The team is not there yet.

 

I wouldn't mind adding a top free agent if the price/term is right, but not expecting it this winter.

 

A bit this year... but yeah, next year and beyond... or really? Jokes guyzzzzzz

 

Yet, I'd love It.

Edited November 1, 2018 by Spanky99

[TheHurl]

Trevor Bauer is 100% right in his Pinetar Quest 2018. He's making a big deal about this and I hope MLB takes his claims seriously.

 

They need to either regulate a product to use to enhance grip (which wouldn't matter at all if everyone used the same substance), or enforce the current rules they have now. "We are aware some pitchers are using it but we aren't going to enforce it" is the stupidest f***ing mindset.