April Postmortem: The Cases For and Against a Teardown

[Terminator]

What could they realistically get though? Red Sox could trade Devers and a couple other prospects, is that enough? You're going to have Frazier and Moustakas on the market as well and the number of competing teams with a need for 3rd base is very small.

 

Might make more sense to hold on to him.

 

Devers, Groome and another prospect/piece would be quite the haul. The Mets could offer up Conforto and others. I think the package would be quite large. Frazier and Moustakas don't matter at all compared to Donaldson. Total zeros compared to him. Donaldson is a top 3 player and two postseasons runs with him is extremely valuable. MVP-caliber players rarely hit the market. When was the last time?

[BTS]

Devers, Groome and another prospect/piece would be quite the haul. The Mets could offer up Conforto and others. I think the package would be quite large. Frazier and Moustakas don't matter at all compared to Donaldson. Total zeros compared to him.

 

Time is probably running out on getting Conforto from the Mets for JD. They seem to be realizing that he's actually good.

[metafour]

I'd dangle Donaldson and Estrada to Houston if it came down to trading Donaldson. Bregman/Tucker/Whitley/Martes etc. are all there. Donaldson would be a luxury for them but they do need starters, which is why I see if I can swing a combo deal with Estrada thrown in as well

[Terminator]

I'd dangle Donaldson and Estrada to Houston if it came down to trading Donaldson. Bregman/Tucker/Whitley/Martes etc. are all there. Donaldson would be a luxury for them but they do need starters, which is why I see if I can swing a combo deal with Estrada thrown in as well

 

That's a great idea. Dangle a starter along with Donaldson to maximize impact. We could even cover portions of the salary rest of the season.

[Laika]

What could they realistically get though? Red Sox could trade Devers and a couple other prospects, is that enough? You're going to have Frazier and Moustakas on the market as well and the number of competing teams with a need for 3rd base is very small.

 

Might make more sense to hold on to him.

 

Haha, seriously?

 

If Mike Trout was available would you turn up your nose because Toronto has Pillar?

[FrozenRopes]

Haha, seriously?

 

If Mike Trout was available would you turn up your nose because Toronto has Pillar?

 

What does Mike Trout get in his next contract? 10 yrs at 35 million per?

[Jimcanuck]

There is little to no benefit in trading Donaldson, Happ et al. now versus July.

 

No one has suggested making trades now. Make calls ie. "What would it take to get Martes and Tucker?" though.

[Bobthe4th]

Haha, seriously?

 

If Mike Trout was available would you turn up your nose because Toronto has Pillar?

 

I think his point is that if it was Donaldson or nothing, a team that needs a 3B might be more tempted to overpay, and/or an auction occur if more than one team is involved.

 

If there are decent players available for a lot less, teams may be more likely to settle for a lesser player, than giving up more assets than they want to.

[BigCecil]

Always looks a hell of a lot worse than it is when its all going to s*** like it did in April. Pearce, Morales, Travis and Jose are going to hot at some point. I expect Osuna to start throwing better. Pillar is the only one over achieving raking a 135 wRC+ right now. Can probably say the same about Smoak. The other bats should more than make up for their regression. I still think Pearce and Morales will end up with big years in the RC. April was a lost month.

 

Tulo and Martin are older players making more than they should at this point on long term deals, but still are solid contributors. Obviously we need Sanchez and Happ back but it was always unlikely the black swan event on rotation health/performance in 2016 would be repeated. Liriano has become an essential piece this year.

 

Stay the course and build around a solid, albeit aging, nucleus. The whole country is behind this team and there is a lot of momentum. I'd love to see that sustained to some degree, even though a WC is highly unlikely at this point.

[TBJ12]

That's a great idea. Dangle a starter along with Donaldson to maximize impact. We could even cover portions of the salary rest of the season.

 

They could deal Estarda at the deadline and resign him in the offseason. Same could be said for Liriano. It's unusual to have starters who really want to be in Toronto, may as well take advantage while you can. If Martin stays hot it wouldn't​ be hard to him either, but I'm not a fan of that at all.

 

Edit: just realized how disappointed I'd be to see Estrada go. I love watching the guy do his thing.

Edited May 1, 2017 by TBJ12

[saskjayfan]

They could deal Estarda at the deadline and resign him in the offseason. Same could be said for Liriano. It's unusual to have starters who really want to be in Toronto, may as well take advantage while you can. If Martin stays hot it wouldn't​ be hard to him either, but I'm not a fan of that at all.

 

Edit: just realized how disappointed I'd be to see Estrada go. I love watching the guy do his thing.

 

I think they could get a lot more than people think for estrada. He's got ice in his veins. With the 2.5ish ERA he's put up in the post season the last 2 years, a team that is really going for it might overpay on a relative basis for his rental.

[Captain Adama]

I think they could get a lot more than people think for estrada. He's got ice in his veins. With the 2.5ish ERA he's put up in the post season the last 2 years, a team that is really going for it might overpay on a relative basis for his rental.

 

I really doubt that 40 innings of Estrada's career is going to add much sway in terms of value for teams that are looking for a rental pitcher.

[Terminator]

Are Estrada or Liriano worth QOs?

[Laika]

Are Estrada or Liriano worth QOs?

 

Estrada yes, unless something unexpected happens. He's been a stud for 2+ years now.

Liriano... maybe. He is getting paid $13M this year and it feels like a really good contract. Maybe need to judge the whole market and figure out his likelihood of accepting and what the team would even prefer.

[Laika]

Hopefully that can extend Estrada again.

[Terminator]

Estrada yes, unless something unexpected happens. He's been a stud for 2+ years now.

Liriano... maybe. He is getting paid $13M this year and it feels like a really good contract. Maybe need to judge the whole market and figure out his likelihood of accepting and what the team would even prefer.

 

That's what I think. I also think there would be a good chance of both accepting it too given their age and the unlikelihood of them reaching multi-year deals with a pick attached to them.

[z3r0s]

Its an interesting situation for both. If you want to take a run at next year, do you hold on to them and try and QC them, or do you try and deal them with the intention of going for them in free agency. No certainty in either course of action. It would suck to lose both for picks tho.

[Laika]

That's what I think. I also think there would be a good chance of both accepting it too given their age and the unlikelihood of them reaching multi-year deals with a pick attached to them.

 

Remember there is a new CBA now:

 

• The qualifying offer will continue to exist, but it's going to look much different starting next off-season. Teams will no longer have to surrender first-round picks to sign players who declined qualifying offers; instead, teams will give up third rounders if they're under the luxury tax or second and fifth rounders if they're over.

[Brownie19]

Always looks a hell of a lot worse than it is when its all going to s*** like it did in April. Pearce, Morales, Travis and Jose are going to hot at some point. I expect Osuna to start throwing better. Pillar is the only one over achieving raking a 135 wRC+ right now. Can probably say the same about Smoak. The other bats should more than make up for their regression. I still think Pearce and Morales will end up with big years in the RC. April was a lost month.

 

Tulo and Martin are older players making more than they should at this point on long term deals, but still are solid contributors. Obviously we need Sanchez and Happ back but it was always unlikely the black swan event on rotation health/performance in 2016 would be repeated. Liriano has become an essential piece this year.

 

Stay the course and build around a solid, albeit aging, nucleus. The whole country is behind this team and there is a lot of momentum. I'd love to see that sustained to some degree, even though a WC is highly unlikely at this point.

 

 

Do we still think this is true? Attendance at the 2nd home game was down like 17K if I remember correctly. Are TV ratings still at the level they were at last year?

 

I certainly get the general impression that most bandwagon fans - and a lot of die hard fans have already written this season off.

[burlingtonbandit]

Haha, seriously?

 

If Mike Trout was available would you turn up your nose because Toronto has Pillar?

 

Of course not but its going to be a factor into the acquisition cost. If the Red Sox are up 4 Games in the division on July 25th and they can get Moustakas for a C prospect or have to give up Devers ++ to get Donaldson even though JD is the best player doesn't mean he's going to get a haul.

 

3rd base is different than a SP or even OFer where you can just move a CF to LF. You could move a 3rd baseman to 1st base or DH but thats about it.

[Terminator]

Remember there is a new CBA now:

 

How do you think that will affect free agent signings? Will teams even give a s***? I guess if giving up a first rounder was worth about 8+ million or so then what is a 2nd and a 5th or a 3rd worth? Maybe a couple of million?

[Bobthe4th]

How do you think that will affect free agent signings? Will teams even give a s***? I guess if giving up a first rounder was worth about 8+ million or so then what is a 2nd and a 5th or a 3rd worth? Maybe a couple of million?

 

Arguably the bigger impact is that a player who's already had a QO in his career cannot be offered another one (irrespective of whether they accepted it or not).

 

Estrada was offered one in 2015 so can't be offered another.

[Bobthe4th]

And apparently Liriano had a QO when he was with the Pirates - so he's out too.

[wk680]

I really doubt that 40 innings of Estrada's career is going to add much sway in terms of value for teams that are looking for a rental pitcher.

 

Postseason pitching results:

Kershaw: 89.0 ip, 1.157 WHIP, 4.55 ERA

Price: 66.2 ip, 1.230 WHIP, 5.54 ERA

Estrada: 47.2 ip, 0.839 WHIP, 2.64 ERA

 

In that context, along with solid regular season results from 2015 to date, Estrada probably looks pretty good to a contender looking for another starter at the trade deadline.

[Laika]

How do you think that will affect free agent signings? Will teams even give a s***? I guess if giving up a first rounder was worth about 8+ million or so then what is a 2nd and a 5th or a 3rd worth? Maybe a couple of million?

 

It will affect the market a lot. I don't think the draft pick attachment will significantly depress any free agent's value from now on.

 

A first rounder is something like 8+, but perhaps a lot more for some teams and certainly for mid-round picks rather than picks at the end of the round.

 

But the average WAR by draft pick is a hockey stick graph, right. So the drop off is sharp. A second rounder might be like, 2.5-4 million. A third might be 2.5 and under, something like that. By the fifth round the dollar value is negligible.

And besides the money there is a different psychological impact. A team can give up their 3rd rounder and still have 2+ picks before that. It's way different than the idea of giving up your top draft pick, right?

[Terminator]

It will affect the market a lot. I don't think the draft pick attachment will significantly depress any free agent's value from now on.

 

A first rounder is something like 8+, but perhaps a lot more for some teams and certainly for mid-round picks rather than picks at the end of the round.

 

But the average WAR by draft pick is a hockey stick graph, right. So the drop off is sharp. A second rounder might be like, 2.5-4 million. A third might be 2.5 and under, something like that.

 

And besides the money there is a different psychological impact. A team can give up their 3rd rounder and still have 2+ picks before that. It's way different than the idea of giving up your top draft pick, right?

 

Yeah I think some teams will probably just ignore it altogether. Others will factor it in but it's a lot different than giving up a first. Much better for the players. I'm glad it's been revamped like this.

[burlingtonbandit]

Arguably the bigger impact is that a player who's already had a QO in his career cannot be offered another one (irrespective of whether they accepted it or not).

 

Estrada was offered one in 2015 so can't be offered another.

 

Was he officially offered one or was the thought he was going to be offered one so that is why he signed the deal? I can't remember the specifics of it.

[Bobthe4th]

Was he officially offered one or was the thought he was going to be offered one so that is why he signed the deal? I can't remember the specifics of it.

 

Yeah, a QO was made, he had a week to decide and in that time agreed his current contract.

[GD]

How do you think that will affect free agent signings? Will teams even give a s***? I guess if giving up a first rounder was worth about 8+ million or so then what is a 2nd and a 5th or a 3rd worth? Maybe a couple of million?

 

Here's the draft value article:

 

http://www.breakingblue.ca/2014/03/12/the-value-of-draft-picks/

 

A 2nd is worth a little over half a mil, a 3rd is worth a few mil, a 5th is negligible from a mil. So teams will probably be paying anywhere between $3m to $7m, as opposed to the $10-20m they've been paying recently. Should see QOs declined way more and those guys get signed, I'd think.

[Terminator]

Here's the draft value article:

 

http://www.breakingblue.ca/2014/03/12/the-value-of-draft-picks/

 

A 2nd is worth a little over half a mil, a 3rd is worth a few mil, a 5th is negligible from a mil. So teams will probably be paying anywhere between $3m to $7m, as opposed to the $10-20m they've been paying recently. Should see QOs declined way more and those guys get signed, I'd think.

 

Thanks for the article but what?