Toronto Blue Jays Rebuilding Thread

[burlingtonbandit]

I can see NJH's logic only because trading JD now would be selling very low and the Jays won't be getting the types of prospects they need in return for him. The question is how will his value look in the winter? If he has a great second half, then that would help, but if not, then what can the Jays realistically trade? I mean, other than the young pitching, they have nothing to trade. It's actually worse than being just old. They are old and have no value.

 

I can see the logic in keeping JD and giving this group one more shot but only if they can't get appropriate value for him now. Seriously, a fire sale with nothing to trade isn't really all that enticing. We ain't getting what the White Sox got in return for their guys.

 

Stroman and Osuna likely get those types of returns. It is quite comical how bad everyone has been, even Sanchez doesn't really have much trade value ATM given the blister issue.

[wk680]

I can see NJH's logic only because trading JD now would be selling very low and the Jays won't be getting the types of prospects they need in return for him. The question is how will his value look in the winter? If he has a great second half, then that would help, but if not, then what can the Jays realistically trade? I mean, other than the young pitching, they have nothing to trade. It's actually worse than being just old. They are old and have no value.

 

I can see the logic in keeping JD and giving this group one more shot but only if they can't get appropriate value for him now. Seriously, a fire sale with nothing to trade isn't really all that enticing. We ain't getting what the White Sox got in return for their guys.

 

In other words the Jays may be in about the same sorry state as the Phillies from a few years back ? Maybe we at least have a better head start on rebuilding the farm than they did when their old team hit the wall.

[burlingtonbandit]

In other words the Jays may be in about the same sorry state as the Phillies from a few years back ? Maybe we at least have a better head start on rebuilding the farm than they did when their old team hit the wall.

 

The Jays system is in a lot better shape than the Phillies was.

[Terminator]

This is what nobody gets. Unless the rebuild idiots want to dump Stroman, Sanchez, and Osuna while they're at it?

 

Then the next window becomes like 2021 at the earliest. Woooo

 

This is what I've been saying. We won't get s*** for any of our impending FAs. Donaldson would be selling low. Happ and Smoak could be traded but what we they get us? I doubt that much. A true rebuild involves Sanchez, Stroman and Osuna and this team would suck dick moving forward if we did that.

 

We've got a ton of money coming off the books this year. Retool and try again. If it doesn't work then the 2018 deadline we can sell.

[Slade]

Yea selling on Stroman, Sanchez and Osuna is dumb. I was thinking they would get a good haul for Happ but with the state of the rotation I don't think you can trade him.

[admin]

There are like TEN players on this team right now that have been unexpectedly bad, and could reasonably be expected to regress upwards in 2018.

 

Some of you guys are f***ing embarrassingly stupid. Borderline intellectual functioning. Get a new hobby. The CFL needs fans.

 

Who are these ten we're talking about?

[wk680]

Who are these ten we're talking about?

 

I think ten is a pretty high number. Of those who are under contract/control for 2018, you might expect more from Donaldson, Tulo, Happ, Morales, Pillar (needs a defensive bounce back), Travis (can he stay off the DL?), and Sanchez (is this blister thing ever going to clear up?). Pearce (currently 108 wRC+ and -0.1 fWAR) needs to play 1B/DH or his offensive contributions are negated by his poor LF play. Bautista (96 wRC+ and +0.2 fWAR) could be more productive but could just as easily continue to lose value at his advanced age. Martin is actually having a decent season, and at his age is unlikely to do much more.

[burlingtonbandit]

I think ten is a pretty high number. Of those who are under contract/control for 2018, you might expect more from Donaldson, Tulo, Happ, Morales, Pillar (needs a defensive bounce back), Travis (can he stay off the DL?), and Sanchez (is this blister thing ever going to clear up?). Pearce (currently 108 wRC+ and -0.1 fWAR) needs to play 1B/DH or his offensive contributions are negated by his poor LF play. Bautista (96 wRC+ and +0.2 fWAR) could be more productive but could just as easily continue to lose value at his advanced age. Martin is actually having a decent season, and at his age is unlikely to do much more.

 

Its interesting because Pillar is up to 11 DRS on the year which is second among CF in all of baseball. His defense the first couple of months he looked a little slower but he's been really good lately. Now his UZR paints him more as being closer to average so that's why his WAR total isn't as high.

[KingKat]

Yea selling on Stroman, Sanchez and Osuna is dumb. I was thinking they would get a good haul for Happ but with the state of the rotation I don't think you can trade him.

 

I'd dangle Osuna just because of some of the crazy returns that relievers sometimes bring. It might be worth pulling the trigger if it brings some talent that can contribute shortly. I also have this fanciful notion that Conner Greene (a prospect I've s*** on quite a bit) might be a wicked closer.

[KingKat]

I think ten is a pretty high number. Of those who are under contract/control for 2018, you might expect more from Donaldson, Tulo, Happ, Morales, Pillar (needs a defensive bounce back), Travis (can he stay off the DL?), and Sanchez (is this blister thing ever going to clear up?). Pearce (currently 108 wRC+ and -0.1 fWAR) needs to play 1B/DH or his offensive contributions are negated by his poor LF play. Bautista (96 wRC+ and +0.2 fWAR) could be more productive but could just as easily continue to lose value at his advanced age. Martin is actually having a decent season, and at his age is unlikely to do much more.

 

I woudn't include Bautista. Do you really want to accept his option in order to find out if he can bounce back? I think you have to consider him gone in which case it's a moot point whether he does or doesn't.

[THANOS]

I'd dangle Osuna just because of some of the crazy returns that relievers sometimes bring. It might be worth pulling the trigger if it brings some talent that can contribute shortly. I also have this fanciful notion that Conner Greene (a prospect I've s*** on quite a bit) might be a wicked closer.

 

He could be, but Conner Greene can't miss bats. He doesn't really have a 2nd plus pitch. But who knows, his MILB K/9 is even worse than Sanchez' (who was actually not that bad).

[Laika]

Who are these ten we're talking about?

 

Obviously specific players are debatable but the general trend certainly isn't.

 

Unexpectedly bad or hurt, under control next year

Donaldson

Pearce

Tulo

Travis

Pillar

Morales

Sanchez

 

Not under control in 2018 but could be back, could be better

Bautista

Estrada

Liriano

 

Could have really contributed, f***ed by injuries:

Alford

Pompey

 

Also Grilli and Howell... but reasonable people expected them to not be very good. Hoped they would be, but I don't think there was much expectation.

 

On the flip side, the team has like, three or four good surprises and only of them (Smoak) isn't a stupid reliever.

[Spanky99]

There are like TEN players on this team right now that have been unexpectedly bad, and could reasonably be expected to regress upwards in 2018.

 

Some of you guys are f***ing embarrassingly stupid. Borderline intellectual functioning. Get a new hobby. The CFL needs fans.

 

ROFLCOPTER!

[Dick_Pole]

In other words the Jays may be in about the same sorry state as the Phillies from a few years back ? Maybe we at least have a better head start on rebuilding the farm than they did when their old team hit the wall.

 

The Phillies had multiple very bad contracts. It's not hard to imagine that the Jays can get better production in 2018 from the $45M+ paid to Estrada, Bautista and Liriano this year, including raises to the players they want to keep.

 

Out of all the rebuild vs. go for it debates I haven't heard anyone bring up the fact that the FO has a lot of payroll flexibility to work with next year. Which means they have a lot of room for creative ways to rebuild this team.

[admin]

You said bad years not so much hurt. But even still:

 

Obviously specific players are debatable but the general trend certainly isn't.

 

Unexpectedly bad or hurt, under control next year

Donaldson - Agree.

Pearce - He has one combined season of good baseball in his career and is 35 next year. Would it be that surprising if it doesn't get much better?

Tulo - He's into this third season as a Jay putting up terrible numbers. Sure it makes no sense, but would you be surprised if next year was similar as these three?

Travis - Hurt, exception.

Pillar - Do you think he'll be a 4WAR player again?

Morales - Agree. You'd hope.

Sanchez - Hurt, exception.

 

Not under control in 2018 but could be back, could be better

Bautista - He's 37 next year, what do you think he has left?

Estrada - Possibly, though his ERA has always been better than what he actually was.

Liriano - I've always been a fan but at this point, same with Grilli, you can't count on these guys.

 

Could have really contributed, f***ed by injuries:

Alford

Pompey

 

Also Grilli and Howell... but reasonable people expected them to not be very good. Hoped they would be, but I don't think there was much expectation.

 

On the flip side, the team has like, three or four good surprises and only of them (Smoak) isn't a stupid reliever.

 

Call me embarrassingly stupid but that's a lot of guys with the odds agains them to turn it around next year. I think we can be a decent team but there's jus too many holes and hopes for too many aging, injury prone, meh guys to turn it around to be a top team.

[AdamGreenwood]

I mean,

 

At this point, we're a fringe contender, that falls apart with any injuries because we have no depth in our system.

 

Options are:

 

a) Keep all our aging and last-year-of contract players so we can have our 5% chance of making the playoffs.

Trade off our minor league future, so we can have a 10% chance of making the playoffs.

c) Actually get some value out of guys like Donaldson, by trading them for prospects (aka White Sox) before they're worth nothing.

[Laika]

Call me embarrassingly stupid

 

sure

[Laika]

I mean,

 

At this point, we're a fringe contender, that falls apart with any injuries because we have no depth in our system.

 

Options are:

 

a) Keep all our aging and last-year-of contract players so we can have our 5% chance of making the playoffs.

Trade off our minor league future, so we can have a 10% chance of making the playoffs.

c) Actually get some value out of guys like Donaldson, by trading them for prospects (aka White Sox) before they're worth nothing.

 

Can just as easily trade Donaldson in the middle of 2018

[Jimcanuck]

Can just as easily trade Donaldson in the middle of 2018

 

He has more value now.

 

Truth is, the competition is getting better while the Jays are treading water for the next few years.

 

I appreciate your optimism though.

[Laika]

I appreciate your optimism though.

 

I'm a rationalist, not an optimist.

 

For most of these old players I'm just looking at their production this year vs. their current rest-of-season projections... and the projections are significantly better.

 

I prefer that ^ approach to hand-wavy pseudo-arguments like "he's old so he's probably done".

 

I don't think there's even a good trade market for Donaldson right now and he's clearly playing with a somewhat serious injury.

[Farm]

Obviously specific players are debatable but the general trend certainly isn't.

 

Unexpectedly bad or hurt, under control next year

Donaldson

Pearce

Tulo

Travis

Pillar

Morales

Sanchez

 

The thing is most of the guys here are so old that even if I give you the positive regression without any argument, the regression itself may very well be offset by age-related decline. Now I doubt anybody would want to trade Travis or Sanchez due to injury troubles wrecking their value.

 

Pillar may very well be the ideal piece to let go -- defensive decline should be more drastic, sudden, and start at an earlier age. If Tulo or Morales can get you anything of value then I don't see why you would want to keep them. As for Pearce and Donaldson, PERHAPS you may be underestimating the additional value that having these players (especially Donaldson) for an additional playoff run that teams may be willing to offer.

[Jimcanuck]

I'm a rationalist, not an optimist.

 

For most of these old players I'm just looking at their production this year vs. their current rest-of-season projections... and the projections are significantly better.

 

I prefer that ^ approach to hand-wavy pseudo-arguments like "he's old so he's probably done".

 

I don't think there's even a good trade market for Donaldson right now and he's clearly playing with a somewhat serious injury.

 

The longer the Jays wait before making moves, the deeper the hole they are in.

[Krylian]

The longer the Jays wait before making moves, the deeper the hole they are in.

 

It's always better to sell a year too early than a year too late. I think they're already too late on several pieces.

[Laika]

The longer the Jays wait before making moves, the deeper the hole they are in.

 

Toronto is already in year ~three of their Shlieffen Plan. Retreat isn't really an option.

[Omar]

Toronto is already in year ~three of their Shlieffen Plan. Retreat isn't really an option.

 

Just for that I'm going to avail myself a Von Clauswitz quote in relation to Gibbys on field strategy.

[Krylian]

Toronto is already in year ~three of their Shlieffen Plan. Retreat isn't really an option.

 

Retreat is always an option. It's like pushing half your chips in and then the river card gets turned and you know you're f***ed. You can always fold and spend the next several hands trying to rebuild your chips count, rather than going all in when you pretty much know you have a losing hand.

 

The only debate that remains is, does this team have a losing hand. I think they do... Many don't yet. I hope I'm proven wrong.

[Terminator]

Retreat is always an option. It's like pushing half your chips in and then the river card gets turned and you know you're f***ed. You can always fold and spend the next several hands trying to rebuild your chips count, rather than going all in when you pretty much know you have a losing hand.

 

The only debate that remains is, does this team have a losing hand. I think they do... Many don't yet. I hope I'm proven wrong.

 

So who would you trade right now then? This is when the rebuilding argument starts to make less sense.

[Krylian]

So who would you trade right now then?

 

That's the problem. The guys you want to trade got old fast, are not performing, and are expensive... The guys that you can move easily are young and cheap, and you want to try and build around. I understand that they're f***ed.

 

But what I don't want to see is adding multiple year contacts to try and make a run in 2018.

 

My hope is that they can dump expiring contracts, listen on Happ, Donaldson, Pillar... See if anyone will give you a good return if you eat salary (off-season might be better for Donaldson)... And sign some short term deals on players that might be looking to rebuild their value. I'd listen on Stroman as well... But they would need to knock my socks off.

[burlingtonbandit]

Can just as easily trade Donaldson in the middle of 2018

 

But then you are getting 50 Cents on the Dollar since he's a rental bat. Also who knows Machado might be on the market then too just making things worse.

 

Given the 3B landscape you probably aren't getting what you would want back for Donaldson at any time.

[Terminator]

But then you are getting 50 Cents on the Dollar since he's a rental bat. Also who knows Machado might be on the market then too just making things worse.

 

Given the 3B landscape you probably aren't getting what you would want back for Donaldson at any time.

 

If Donaldson bounces back next year he probably fetches more at the 2018 deadline than he does this deadline. Trading him now is both selling low and throwing in the towel on 2018.