Toronto Blue Jays Rebuilding Thread

[Jimcanuck]

If they could get him to sign a 5 year contract....it could be possible

 

So.... a contending window built around Donaldson?

 

I hate the idea of 'building around X player'. Isn't the better approach to build a strong farm system and have 1 or 2 players ready for MLB each year? With that approach there is no window, no building around a player or players, just a sustainable good team that every now and then will be strong contenders or win the WS.

[Orgfiller]

So.... a contending window built around Donaldson?

 

I hate the idea of 'building around X player'. Isn't the better approach to build a strong farm system and have 1 or 2 players ready for MLB each year? With that approach there is no window, no building around a player or players, just a sustainable good team that every now and then will be strong contenders or win the WS.

 

It shouldn't really be either or, but the chances that any prospect in baseball - let alone in our own farm system - becomes as good as Josh Donaldson, are slim to none. When you have a player that good, you build around them if the possibility exists. Building around a player that good does not mean you ignore your farm system, on the contrary, you try to construct a sustainable model of success in which talent is continually being added to the team, be it from your farm system or outside the organization.

[Daniel Labude]

So.... a contending window built around Donaldson?

 

I hate the idea of 'building around X player'. Isn't the better approach to build a strong farm system and have 1 or 2 players ready for MLB each year? With that approach there is no window, no building around a player or players, just a sustainable good team that every now and then will be strong contenders or win the WS.

 

I think we have the pieces to trade that could have us contending in a year or two, so if Donaldson signed an extension we could still contend and build up the farm, so we have sustainable success even without Donaldson eventually

[Terminator]

It shouldn't really be either or, but the chances that any prospect in baseball - let alone in our own farm system - becomes as good as Josh Donaldson, are slim to none. When you have a player that good, you build around them if the possibility exists. Building around a player that good does not mean you ignore your farm system, on the contrary, you try to construct a sustainable model of success in which talent is continually being added to the team, be it from your farm system or outside the organization.

 

What you say makes sense but said player is signed for this year and next then he's gone. Hard to build around a guy like that with that little team control. I'd explore an extension but trading him has to be considered.

[Brownie19]

It shouldn't really be either or, but the chances that any prospect in baseball - let alone in our own farm system - becomes as good as Josh Donaldson, are slim to none. When you have a player that good, you build around them if the possibility exists. Building around a player that good does not mean you ignore your farm system, on the contrary, you try to construct a sustainable model of success in which talent is continually being added to the team, be it from your farm system or outside the organization.

 

I think you're overplaying the past. Steamers projects JD as a 5.2 WAR player this year and we can only assume it will continue to decrease in 2018 and beyond. If you're signing him to a $200M player, you're paying for his decline and "building" around a depreciating asset, who, moving forward, may not be the superstar he once was. That's what the Angels did went they signed Pujols and Hamilton.

[TorontonianJD]

Am I the only one who doesn't see JD getting $200m? Between his age and nagging injuries I don't see it happening.

[Terminator]

Am I the only one who doesn't see JD getting $200m? Between his age and nagging injuries I don't see it happening.

 

Isn't this the first time in his career that he's hit the DL?

[Orgfiller]

I think you're overplaying the past. Steamers projects JD as a 5.2 WAR player this year and we can only assume it will continue to decrease in 2018 and beyond. If you're signing him to a $200M player, you're paying for his decline and "building" around a depreciating asset, who, moving forward, may not be the superstar he once was. That's what the Angels did went they signed Pujols and Hamilton.

 

You say this as if him being projected for 5 WAR is nothing. Only a handful of players reach that mark in a season, and few are projected to perform at that level. I think barring any aggravations of current injuries or the emergence of new ones (entirely possible and should be factored in), JD is probably a true talent 4 win player if not better for some years to come. Decline is obviously to be expected for a player his age, but it won't be so precipitous that he's a sunk cost. Remember we had Bautista throughout pretty much the same stage and that turned out pretty well for us.

 

My point is simply that if you have a chance to retain a player this good at a non-exorbitant cost, you do so and figure out the rest later.

 

I don't think anyone saw Pujols falling off a cliff the way that he did (unless you believe the age rumours are true), and Hamilton was a pretty risky player himself. And yes, I do understand the risk of signing a player in his decline phase to a longterm deal, that's definitely a huge consideration to take if/when we decide whether we want to keep JD when his team control with the Blue Jays runs out.

[metafour]

So.... a contending window built around Donaldson?

 

I hate the idea of 'building around X player'. Isn't the better approach to build a strong farm system and have 1 or 2 players ready for MLB each year? With that approach there is no window, no building around a player or players, just a sustainable good team that every now and then will be strong contenders or win the WS.

 

Yup. The entire notion of "building around a player" in baseball is absurd. This isn't like basketball or football wherein you can get one player that alone automatically puts you into playoff contention (like a star QB, or a superstar player in the NBA). One player in baseball doesn't mean s***, even a player like Donaldson. The question therefore becomes whether or not you can build a NEW worthwhile core that includes Donaldson and contend before he declines to the point wherein you would have been better off just trading him and getting younger players that fit better from a timeline perspective. To me, if you are talking retooling, it makes much more sense to sell high on Donaldson and let someone else worry about paying him $200 million or whatever for his decline years while stockpiling youth that will in theory allow you a much longer period of production. This is actually the situation that AA ran into as he was "rebuilding" but then had Bautista and Encarnacion blow up, at which point he felt pressure to win right away with those two which led to a bunch of haphazard moves to "build around them" (some of which worked well, others which didn't work quite as well). It worked in launching us into the playoffs, but the end result was a very short window as Bautista and Encarnacion were both already well past 30...just like Donaldson is now. The other option at the time would have been to sell Bautista and Encarnacion for ransom at their peak value and supplement what we already had in the minors with several other elite prospects. If you think about it, we could be sitting with Syndergaard/Sanchez/Stroman/Osuna/d'Arnaud/etc. with god knows what else we could have received in prospective trades for Bautista/EE. Would we have two ALCS appearances by 2017? Maybe not, but we'd be in a position for much more prolonged contention. I think we're at the same crossroads again, and I don't want to get into a scenario wherein we're taking a huge risk in giving Donaldson a huge contract and then forced to scramble around to "build around him" because he's already 32+ with only a few years of production left.

[Orgfiller]

What you say makes sense but said player is signed for this year and next then he's gone. Hard to build around a guy like that with that little team control. I'd explore an extension but trading him has to be considered.

 

Oh I agree. My general point across these two threads is that you either try your hardest to compete while we have him, if the team believes the roster is capable enough, or if possible we sign him to a reasonable extension and make use of having an elite player on the roster for a number of years.

[Jimcanuck]

You sign a guy like Donaldson to get you over the hump when the club is already good with several cost controlled good regulars.

 

Signing Donaldson and then trying to build a contender around him is absurb. He alone is going to take a big juicy bite out of payroll. Unless there are a number of prospects that will be ready early in the Donaldson extension, it is an absurd idea to 'build around him'.

[BTS]

You sign a guy like Donaldson to get you over the hump when the club is already good with several cost controlled good regulars.

 

Signing Donaldson and then trying to build a contender around him is absurb. He alone is going to take a big juicy bite out of payroll. Unless there are a number of prospects that will be ready early in the Donaldson extension, it is an absurd idea to 'build around him'.

 

Yeah. There's not much here to build around if we're talking 2018 and beyond. Donaldson at 30M per year, Travis (who might suck), Pillar (defense only CF), and three pitchers 3 years from free agency.

[burlingtonbandit]

Did anyone listen to Shapiro on ATL? If you haven't I would listen to it as he talks for 45 Min about all sorts of topics. One of the interesting things he said was when building a team ideally want a good mix of young players coming into the league, veterans in their prime and older veterans but not too much of all 3. And that is the mix you want when you have sustained contention.

 

Another interesting thing which I agree with is, small market clubs won't be able or at least have a very difficult time to field have a sustained winner and basically will have to have cycles in order to compete.

[glory]

You sign a guy like Donaldson to get you over the hump when the club is already good with several cost controlled good regulars.

 

Signing Donaldson and then trying to build a contender around him is absurb. He alone is going to take a big juicy bite out of payroll. Unless there are a number of prospects that will be ready early in the Donaldson extension, it is an absurd idea to 'build around him'.

 

Agree. Signing Donaldson to an extension now when the 2017 team looks old/bad, and the team's best prospects are still a few years away from reaching the majors is a huge risk with minimal reward. As great as he is, he's only going to get worse and more expensive from here on out, and we don't really know how long he will be elite or stay as injury free as he has prior to this season. On top of that, we don't know how many years it will take for the team's young players to not only reach the Majors but become good mlb players on top of that. It's either trade him for a ransom now and build towards a few years down the road, or try to re-sign him and watch him for another 5-7 years during his declining years on a team that likely won't be good enough around him.

 

If the Jays had a great farm system and the 2017 team looked ready for a WS run, then I'm down for a JD extension. Based on what the team and situation looks like now, it would be better off to move on, and that sucks because I'd love to see JD retire as a Jay. That reality just doesn't jive with where the team is right now.

[saskjayfan]

Yeah. There's not much here to build around if we're talking 2018 and beyond. Donaldson at 30M per year, Travis (who might suck), Pillar (defense only CF), and three pitchers 3 years from free agency.

 

There are no players in the minors that might be good...Alford, srf, greene, vladdy, bichette, urena, tellez, pentecost, harris....none of these guys will have an impact?

[BTS]

There are no players in the minors that might be good...Alford, srf, greene, vladdy, bichette, urena, tellez, pentecost, harris....none of these guys will have an impact?

 

Is it really necessary that any post about the lack of young above average talent on the MLB roster contain an asterisk stating that, as with all 30 clubs, the farm might yield some good players?

[Brownie19]

There are no players in the minors that might be good...Alford, srf, greene, vladdy, bichette, urena, tellez, pentecost, harris....none of these guys will have an impact?

 

In all likelihood - we'll be luck if 1-2 are impact players and if 4-5 have legit MLB careers.

[Dick_Pole]

I think my comment was the one that opened up the whole rat's nest about building around Donaldson. I just used that as a comparison where I would rather build around his window as the Jays have done when he first landed on their doorstep rather than planning to build around an 18 year old player and hope he blossoms 3 years from now. Whether the Jays' drafting, trading and player development decisions result in a young crop of MLB-ready players by 2019 is a different argument than the one I was responding to.

[Caper]

Yeah, I don't want to go back to the days of the team being mediocre. Of just missing out on a wild card birth. I'd rather they rebuild, especially since they have so much trouble attracting free agents, and the team isn't getting any younger.

 

Two points. 1) Big free agent signings over, what seems the last decade have been almost all been instant regret signings. Who have we missed out on? Panda Bear? Albert Pujols? David Price? Prince Fielder? Josh Hamilton? Jose Reyes? The list goes on and on. Personally I think it's a blessing we don't attract the big name free agents.

2) I think teams are stating to realize the first point. So if the Jays want to be that dumb team in the future, they probably can be.

[Bobthe4th]

In all likelihood - we'll be luck if 1-2 are impact players and if 4-5 have legit MLB careers.

 

If we're lucky Gurriel, Alford, Tellez and SRF could all replace gaps on the roster as early as next year.

 

Of course any or all of them may bust, but the same is true for any prospects we'd get if we blow up the roster.

[Farm]

If we're lucky Gurriel, Alford, Tellez and SRF could all replace gaps on the roster as early as next year.

 

Of course any or all of them may bust, but the same is true for any prospects we'd get if we blow up the roster.

 

But we would have more shots if we did blow up the roster. Which is the whole point of it.

[Bobthe4th]

But we would have more shots if we did blow up the roster. Which is the whole point of it.

 

It's not the whole point though. If you believe there is no chance of playoffs either this year or next year, then yes you may as well trade everyone you can, and hope enough prospects come through (including ones you've acquired) so that we can compete again in 2020 and beyond. In that scenario you're only really wasting the 2019 season, in exchange for a bigger chance of succeeding in the future.

 

However, even if you think this season is already a write off (and IMO it's still too early for that), next season isn't a write off until we see if any of the existing prospects make it, and people like Travis and Pearce can be counted on. So for me, right now, it's not worth writing off 2018 and 2019 by trading everyone.

[glory]

I think my comment was the one that opened up the whole rat's nest about building around Donaldson. I just used that as a comparison where I would rather build around his window as the Jays have done when he first landed on their doorstep rather than planning to build around an 18 year old player and hope he blossoms 3 years from now. Whether the Jays' drafting, trading and player development decisions result in a young crop of MLB-ready players by 2019 is a different argument than the one I was responding to.

 

No it isn't. I made a general statement saying let's not waste Guerrero's prime years by not rebuilding/staying mediocre, which you somehow took as building around an 18 year old in A-ball. No one ever said "trade Donaldson and build around Vlad". That's absurd. My point was trade Donaldson, rebuild, and then by the time Vlad comes up they'll be in a position to have players around the same age as him (from a development standpoint) that they can build around. Whether he actually becomes as good as he's capable of is a totally separate discussion, but that should be the goal. Create the next wave of young talent.

 

You created a strawman based on my Guerrero comment, and then got called out for your absurd notion of "building around Donaldson" (this is not basketball, you can't build around one player to begin with). metafor's point pretty much nails the "window period" argument. That's what got AA in trouble. Let's not revisit that model of team building. Instead of scrambling to make the playoffs in the year JD has left, why not try to create something more sustainable over a longer period of time, even if it means some short-term hiccups? It's common sense.

[Farm]

It's not the whole point though. If you believe there is no chance of playoffs either this year or next year, then yes you may as well trade everyone you can, and hope enough prospects come through (including ones you've acquired) so that we can compete again in 2020 and beyond. In that scenario you're only really wasting the 2019 season, in exchange for a bigger chance of succeeding in the future.

 

However, even if you think this season is already a write off (and IMO it's still too early for that), next season isn't a write off until we see if any of the existing prospects make it, and people like Travis and Pearce can be counted on. So for me, right now, it's not worth writing off 2018 and 2019 by trading everyone.

 

Realistically, 2-10 with Donaldson, Sanchez, and Happ all injured really does mean that 2017 is almost worth being written off.

 

Next season is not a write off. But with an aging core, decisions have to be made because their values decrease with time. By all means, you can wait until next year. But in all likelihood, they will end up being even worse players with lower values. And that's why tough decisions need to be made earlier than that.

[Bobthe4th]

Realistically, 2-10 with Donaldson, Sanchez, and Happ all injured really does mean that 2017 is almost worth being written off.

 

There are 150 games left.

 

Next season is not a write off. But with an aging core, decisions have to be made because their values decrease with time. By all means, you can wait until next year. But in all likelihood, they will end up being even worse players with lower values. And that's why tough decisions need to be made earlier than that.

 

Yeah I agree with you on the principle and would in theory support trading (for example) Tulo. But my main point is that the "core" is not just old players who will only get worse. There's lots of quality players that I'm optimistic about for at least the next few years.

 

It's just too early to know for certain which is why we're having this debate.

[glory]

If Tulo and Martin are traded, the value the Jays receive back will be pretty minor, if anything at all. Martin is unmovable with his contract, and Tulo is still a good player but not what he used to be (plus he has a ntc). At this rate the team might be better off keeping them even if they do rebuild since there is no SS or catcher ready to take over for them, and some vetrin leaders around a young team might help in development.

 

The players the jays would have to move are Donaldson, Estrada, Liriano, Happ...and if you want to include young guys, then Pillar and Osuna as well. That's where there will be value coming back to varying degrees. I doubt they will move Sanchez and Stroman yet unless they want to completely bottom out.

[Bobthe4th]

If Tulo and Martin are traded, the value the Jays receive back will be pretty minor, if anything at all. Martin is unmovable with his contract, and Tulo is still a good player but not what he used to be (plus he has a ntc). At this rate the team might be better off keeping them even if they do rebuild since there is no SS or catcher ready to take over for them, and some vetrin leaders around a young team might help in development.

 

The players the jays would have to move are Donaldson, Estrada, Liriano, Happ...and if you want to include young guys, then Pillar and Osuna as well. That's where there will be value coming back to varying degrees. I doubt they will move Sanchez and Stroman yet unless they want to completely bottom out.

 

I think Tulo could still be traded at the end of this year and bring back something worthwhile IF he has a OK to good year with the bat, AND we take on salary in return. Maybe a team with an overpaid OF who wants an experienced middle infielder would be a fit. Gurriel (if he doesn't end up in the outfield) or Urena would be potential candidates for internal replacements.

[TorontonianJD]

Tulo will have to approve any trade because he has a full NTC. Could see him saying no to many, many teams. Plus he and his wife bought a house in Toronto this past fall.

[glory]

Tulo will have to approve any trade because he has a full NTC. Could see him saying no to many, many teams. Plus he and his wife bought a house in Toronto this past fall.

 

He also seems like the type who 1) hates being traded, and 2) doesn't mind being in a rebuilding situation (he seemed to like Colorado and helping the younger talent). Even if the Jays are stuck with him in a rebuilding phase, he might help the young players out.

[Bobthe4th]

He also seems like the type who 1) hates being traded, and 2) doesn't mind being in a rebuilding situation (he seemed to like Colorado and helping the younger talent). Even if the Jays are stuck with him in a rebuilding phase, he might help the young players out.

 

Well he was annoyed at Colorado that they traded him with no notice, when they previously, repeatedly, told him that they wouldn't do that. I think if he was involved and kept up to date he'd potentially be open to a trade that works for him.