Bold Predictions 2017 Thread...

[Atothe]

Martin, Bautista, Tulo, Happ, Estrada, and Travis are on and off the DL all season

 

Jays are out of it at the break, deal the best player in baseball JD for Austin Meadows

 

Just Austin Meadows or more?

[Jimcanuck]

Just Austin Meadows or more?

 

More? lol

[Abomination]

A Jays pitcher other than Sanchez will win the Cy Young.

Sale will join Price on the TJS list, and the Red Sox will finish last in the division.

Tellez will be our starting 1B / DH by the trade deadline.

The Nats and Mets both fail to make the playoffs.

The Angels will trade Mike Trout.

[Brownie19]

A Jays pitcher other than Sanchez will win the Cy Young.

Sale will join Price on the TJS list, and the Red Sox will finish last in the division.

Tellez will be our starting 1B / DH by the trade deadline.

The Nats and Mets both fail to make the playoffs.

The Angels will trade Mike Trout.

 

This sounds like an amazing year...

[AdamGreenwood]

TJ House cracks the rotation in late May, and delivers 2.5 WAR.

Devon Travis only goes on the DL twice, and plays in over 100 games.

Russel Martin refuses to play for the Jays anymore, unless he can play shortstop once a week.

Bautista poses naked again. This time full frontal. Yay!

The Jays agree to let Kevin Pillar wear a cape, but MLB shuts it down.

Stroman starts dating Rima Fakih.

Sanchez and Stroman get into a physical fight, and Gibbons resolves it by having a dance/rap showdown.

Gibbons is initially fired for falling asleep during the game multiple times, but is reinstated once he reveals he has narcolepsy.

'Ice Cold Beer' guy is re-hired after a personal intervention from Joe Biagini and Jimmy Kimmel.

Josh Donaldson can only play 120 games a year, as he becomes a regular on Vikings.

[TheHurl]

Smoak has a Michael Saunders type 2 seasons in 1. Through May 15th he's looking like an all-star, after that he's looking like Smoak.

Rays enter September leading the division but don't make the playoffs.

Trout plays 130 or more games but doesn't come in the top 5 in fWAR

Stroman receives 2 or more first place Cy votes.

Jays trade for Khris Davis

BJMB membership explodes after a thread makes National News. Tim and Sid join the board and immediately leave after Boxy welcomes them to the board in a way only Boxy can.

Tim Collins gets a save

[John_Havok]

BJMB membership explodes after a thread makes National News.

Tim Collins gets a save

 

I think the save would happen first, then your subsequent arrest for streaking around the RC would be what makes national news.

 

Btw, when this happens, because .... it will.....please have someone follow you around on a bike or something with Ray Stevens, The Streak on fulblast.

[Spanky99]

Smoak has a Michael Saunders type 2 seasons in 1. Through May 15th he's looking like an all-star, after that he's looking like Smoak.

Rays enter September leading the division but don't make the playoffs.

Trout plays 130 or more games but doesn't come in the top 5 in fWAR

Stroman receives 2 or more first place Cy votes.

Jays trade for Khris Davis

BJMB membership explodes after a thread makes National News. Tim and Sid join the board and immediately leave after Boxy welcomes them to the board in a way only Boxy can.

Tim Collins gets a save

 

lol... Boxy is a grump!

[Stangstag]

Smoak has a Michael Saunders type 2 seasons in 1. Through May 15th he's looking like an all-star, after that he's looking like Smoak.

Rays enter September leading the division but don't make the playoffs.

Trout plays 130 or more games but doesn't come in the top 5 in fWAR

Stroman receives 2 or more first place Cy votes.

Jays trade for Khris Davis

BJMB membership explodes after a thread makes National News. Tim and Sid join the board and immediately leave after Boxy welcomes them to the board in a way only Boxy can.

Tim Collins gets a save

 

Blasphemy

[Zaun of the Dead]

stroman has a better season than sanchez

estrada is moved to the bullpen

the politics thread is finally shut down

[Jimcanuck]

the politics thread is finally shut down

 

And Boxy starts a Quran thread 5 minutes later

[Angrioter]

Shapiro traded for Lawrie, 'cause Travis can't stay healthy

[Olerud363]

- Kendrys Morales puts up a 2+ win season on the strength of a wRC+ above 115 and some surprisingly decent innings at 1B

- Devon Travis contributes fewer than 2 wins

- Aaron Sanchez suffers a very serious arm or shoulder injury

- The bullpen is top-5 in baseball and a significant strength all season long

 

None of this is bold at all. No offense.

 

Kendry Morales lifetime 114 wRC+ and just got 1.9 wins in 2015... 2 wins and 115 is like upper average

 

Bold is 140 and 4 wins

 

Travis. 2 wins a year, injured a lot. fewer than 2 wins is like lower average.

 

Negative bold predictions are sad. Travis out for year is negative bold.

 

Aaron Sanchez prediction I guess is negative bold.

[Olerud363]

1. Giancarlo Stanton will finally have a healthy season and will hit 50 home runs.

 

2. Bryce Harper will have a higher WAR than Mike Trout.

 

3. Jose Bautista will have a higher WAR than Edwin Encarnacion.

 

4. Jim and Boxcar will realise that there is a thin line between love and hate and stop constantly insulting each other in the politics thread.

 

These threads always show that the human brain doesn't work. Why are things that happened already bold??

 

Harper had a higher WAR than Trout in 2015

 

Bautista had the same WAR as EE in 2015, 3 higher in 2014.

 

2014-2016 Bautista - 12.2 WAR

2014-2016 EE - 12 WAR

 

Bautista having higher WAR than EE could easily happen. It has happened recently. It could happen again. Not bold.

[Olerud363]

Travis misses half the season with something.

 

Sanchez and Happ regress, Stroman and Liriano improve.

 

Pearce ends up with a higher WAR than Encarnacion (yes I went there!)

 

Morales has a better season than expected (1.5-2.0 WAR).

 

Carrera gets way too many AB's and has an April so awful that he gets demoted.

 

Smoak, see Carrera.

 

Pearce one could be bold. The rest is like... OK that is likely to happen. That has happened.

 

The boards bold rate is like 20% if that. Out of 100 bold predictions 20 are really bold.

[Olerud363]

-Smoak with a wRC north of 100

 

-Donaldson will be beset with nagging hamstring injuries and will have a down year of 30 HR, 100 RBI

 

-Bautista will go back to being a premium offensive player

 

-Happ will s*** the bed

 

-Estrada will be average

 

-Sanchez will dominate

 

-Stroman will be average

 

-Gibby will get fired mid season

 

Smoak had a wRC+ of 108 in 2015.

 

Most of these bold predictions are

 

"what random stat that goes between a and b, and was closer to "a" last year will be closer to "b" this year.

[Olerud363]

Miguel Sano and Stanton help my dynasty team with 100 dingers, and Trea Turner top-5 MVP

 

Dominican guy gets "bold" better than most others.

[Olerud363]

Russell Martin posts a 3.5 win season

 

Tulowitzki hits 30 homers for only the third time in his career

 

Melvin Upton Jr. has a 20-20 season

 

Donaldson has a down year but still posts over 5 WAR.

 

There will be no significant injury to the rotation again (knocks on wood)

 

Steve Pearce plays over 120 games posting > 2.5 wins

 

This answers the question

 

What players will have good seasons by their own standards

 

and

 

What player can have a very good year, even if he regresses a bit.

[Olerud363]

Rowdy Tellez repeats Fred McGriff's 1987 (20 homers, in 290 at bats)

 

Hits one into third deck at Yankee Stadium (harder in new Yankee Stadium).

 

Kevin Pillar repeats his minor league numbers in majors .315 15 homers, .355 on base percentage

 

Marcus Stroman has a season that compares to Halladay's best and sets new Jays win record (23-4 2.28)

[Boxcar]

Pearce one could be bold. The rest is like... OK that is likely to happen. That has happened.

 

The boards bold rate is like 20% if that. Out of 100 bold predictions 20 are really bold.

 

- Kevin Pillar will hit for a 110 wRC+ thanks to him not trying to hit the ball hard all the time

 

- Ryan Goins will continue to be an important cog in the machine and become the starting 2B

 

- Aaron Sanchez will be better than Noah Syndergaard

 

- Justin Smoak will finally realize he plays for the Blue Jays and becomes a 4 WAR player

 

- Roberto Osuna continues his progression and outperforms Aroldis Chapman and Zach Britton as the best closer in the AL.

 

- everyone who chose to leave the Jays this past offseason has a terrible year and a couple of them have career ending injuries.

[BTS]

These threads always show that the human brain doesn't work. Why are things that happened already bold??

 

Harper had a higher WAR than Trout in 2015

 

Bautista had the same WAR as EE in 2015, 3 higher in 2014.

 

2014-2016 Bautista - 12.2 WAR

2014-2016 EE - 12 WAR

 

Bautista having higher WAR than EE could easily happen. It has happened recently. It could happen again. Not bold.

 

It probably says good things about things about the forum that people's idea of bold predictions are things that are unlikely to happen, but still in the range of outcomes that can reasonably be expected.

[Laika]

BOLD prediction: Olerud363 literally dies this year and nobody on the board notices.

[Olerud363]

It probably says good things about things about the forum that people's idea of bold predictions are things that are unlikely to happen, but still in the range of outcomes that can reasonably be expected.

 

Many of the predictions are things that already happened recently.

 

There is huge recency bias, which basically means if it didn't happen in 2016 it is bold for 2017. Smoak had a 100+ OPS as recently as 2015, lifetime he is 95.

 

It's not bold to predict 100+ OPS for Smoak.

 

Bold predictions, should really be things that are unlikely, haven't happened before, and we don't see coming.

 

Devon Travis will be better than Mookie Betts. That's bold,

[Olerud363]

BOLD prediction: Olerud363 literally dies this year and nobody on the board notices.

 

Not really bold. Kind of mean.

 

Still trying to figure if you are really are a smart guy or not. I mean you understand how dumb Grant is, so that is very good. You seem to have a basic understanding of the reproducibility crisis. Good as well.

 

A little too much overconfidence. This is where it gets tricky.

 

a) Like many smart guys (Nox for example) you may understand that you are not really that smart (no one is), however by acting cocky you can play the system (co-orporate promotions and such)

 

or

 

you really think you are that smart, in which case you aren't.

[Olerud363]

BOLD prediction: Olerud363 literally dies this year and nobody on the board notices.

 

Real smart guys, also occasionally get out of the phony "yo-bro" one sentence communication style, which you very much did with your good series of articles on moves that you were advocating.

 

So that is another point in your favor.

[Bobthe4th]

Many of the predictions are things that already happened recently.

 

There is huge recency bias, which basically means if it didn't happen in 2016 it is bold for 2017. Smoak had a 100+ OPS as recently as 2015, lifetime he is 95.

 

It's not bold to predict 100+ OPS for Smoak.

 

Bold predictions, should really be things that are unlikely, haven't happened before, and we don't see coming.

 

Devon Travis will be better than Mookie Betts. That's bold,

 

Relax, this thread is a bit of fun!

 

Technically anything that is less likely to happen is a bold prediction by simply not being the favourite outcome.

[Olerud363]

Relax, this thread is a bit of fun!

 

Technically anything that is less likely to happen is a bold prediction by simply not being the favourite outcome.

 

I am very relaxed.

 

Bold Prediction - Josh Donaldson get 7.2 WAR and comes 3rd in the MVP voting

Bold Prediction - Marcus Stroman progresses and is quite obviously slightly above average with 200 innings 40 walks and a 3.50 ERA

Bold Prediction - Rowdy Tellez hits fairly OK at Buffalo (.290 22 homers, 80 rbis) is called up in September and hits a homer in a game that the Jays win 11-2 (pinch hits for Smoak).

Bold Prediction - Kevin Pillar rebounds to 2015 form and hits .275.

Bold Prediciton - Bautista plays 130 games and flirts with 30 homers again (after only 22 in 2016).

[intentional wok]

San Diego will produce a Cy Young Award contender.

[BTS]

San Diego will produce a Cy Young Award contender.

 

Ban

[intentional wok]

Ban

 

Not bold enough?

San Diego will produce a Cy Young Award contender.