Around Baseball 2017

[burlingtonbandit]

We've been through this before. Those are all valid and notable concerns/flaws. If one of Longenhagen/Law just came out and said what you said there, I could reason behind it. Calling him a non prospect because he struckout a few times in the AFL a year and a half ago when they were in attendance is laughable and 100% dismisable.

 

Aren't they calling him a non prospect because of the bat speed?

[King]

Aren't they calling him a non prospect because of the bat speed?

 

Law thinks that Tellez won't be able to handle advanced velocity because he saw him overmatched in the AFL in 2015.

[Dr. Dinger]

We've been through this before. Those are all valid and notable concerns/flaws. If one of Longenhagen/Law just came out and said what you said there, I could reason behind it. Calling him a non prospect because he struckout a few times in the AFL a year and a half ago when they were in attendance is laughable and 100% dismisable.

 

I would be surprised if that's the only thing factoring into Longenhagen's opinion on Tellez. Perhaps he does think Tellez is prospect-ish and he just misspoke. I dunno. KLaw is too opinionated and unwilling to change his mind based on new information, I don't take him that seriously.

 

Funny story about KLaw (and I hope I can tell this story by now/I'm going off memory from a story that was told to me probably 4 years ago while intoxicated) that I heard from a former poster here who worked for the Jays for a time. During the Ricciardi era, when KLaw was his right hand man, KLaw used to either approve of or summarily dismiss a prospect during draft discussions by giving a thumbs up or thumbs down in the war room (think Gladiator). Well, apparently AA and others found this incredibly pretentious and took to calling him Little Caesar.

[Ray]

Anthony Rizzo scouting report from 2011:

 

"He's not Gonzalez, but Rizzo isn't far away from succeeding him as the most dangerous hitter in San Diego's lineup. To do so, he'll have to make adjustments after big league pitchers were able to exploit the length and uppercut in his swing with quality fastballs up in the zone. … He still needs to improve his defensive consistency, however, after committing 30 errors in the last two seasons. He's a below-average runner, as expected for a player his size. … Once he does so, he could develop into a .270 hitter capable of producing 30 homers and a healthy amount of walks on an annual basis."

 

Hmm.....sounds a lot like one of our prospects......

[Dr. Dinger]

K you guys know that 2016 Anthony Rizzo is like a 98th percentile outcome, right? Many, many bat-first prospects flop and are never heard of again.

[TholesWeirdEye]

Stats don't matter, he's too husky to be legit.

 

http://cdn-s3.si.com/s3fs-public/teams/baseball/mlb/players/253221-300x300.png

[BTS]

Law thinks that Tellez won't be able to handle advanced velocity because he saw him overmatched in the AFL in 2015.

 

Longenhagen doesn't think he has the bat speed, and says a lot of scouts feel the same way.

[Dr. Dinger]

Longenhagen doesn't think he has the bat speed, and says a lot of scouts feel the same way.

 

I don't know why you can't just admit the more logical explanation that these prospectors have an irrational hatred specifically for the Blue Jays.

[Ray]

K you guys know that 2016 Anthony Rizzo is like a 98th percentile outcome, right? Many, many bat-first prospects flop and are never heard of again.

 

Of course I'm not expecting him to be Anthony Rizzo. That's totally unrealistic and unfair to Tellez.

 

I'm just providing an example of another guy who scouts felt had the exact same problem as Tellez and turned out fine.

 

If Tellez can be half of Rizzo that'd be a rousing success.

[jaysfan2014]

Jake Diekman done for most of the 2017 season due to surgery--substantial blow to the Rangers bullpen:

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/01/jake-diekman-to-undergo-surgery-miss-significant-portion-of-2017-season.html

[Terminator]

I don't know why you can't just admit the more logical explanation that these prospectors have an irrational hatred specifically for the Blue Jays.

 

There are "circumstances" working against Jays prospects.

[King]

I don't know why you can't just admit the more logical explanation that these prospectors have an irrational hatred specifically for the Blue Jays.

 

Well that's just a ridiculous jump to make. I follow other teams prospects more than the Blue Jays. I could not give less of a s*** about Law or whoever having a hatred for Blue Jays prospects.

[Dr. Dinger]

Jake Diekman done for most of the 2017 season due to surgery--substantial blow to the Rangers bullpen:

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/01/jake-diekman-to-undergo-surgery-miss-significant-portion-of-2017-season.html

 

Oh damn! Sounds like he probably lost a couple feet of guts.

[Krylian]

Well that's just a ridiculous jump to make. I follow other teams prospects more than the Blue Jays. I could not give less of a s*** about Law or whoever having a hatred for Blue Jays prospects.

 

I thought he was being sarcastic.

[King]

I thought he was being sarcastic.

 

It was sarcasm.

[wamco]

Tellez seems to have a good head on his shoulders. Wouldn't surprise me if he shows up to camp down some lbs.

[Laika]

K you guys know that 2016 Anthony Rizzo is like a 98th percentile outcome, right? Many, many bat-first prospects flop and are never heard of again.

 

This is true.

 

Still, I find it hard to believe that someone with a disqualifying lack of bat speed could put together Tellez' 2016 combination of contact, power, and age vs. level goodness. Wow numbers!

 

The kid had the fourth highest qualified ISO in all of AA! And as the 6th youngest player.

 

He basically went stat-for-stat with Cody Bellinger, who everyone creams their pants over.

[Dr. Dinger]

This is true.

 

Still, I find it hard to believe that someone with a disqualifying lack of bat speed could put together Tellez' 2016 combination of contact, power, and age vs. level goodness. Wow numbers!

 

The kid had the fourth highest qualified ISO in all of AA! And as the 6th youngest player.

 

He basically went stat-for-stat with Cody Bellinger, who everyone creams their pants over.

 

Well Cody Bellinger probably has abs and a jawline you can sharpen an axe on.

[Pendleton]

Being fat is a factor. If Tellez is a 100 wRC+ guy in the majors because he lacks the bat speed to hit elite fastballs, then yeah, he is essentially a NP. He can't play anywhere but 1B, and he reportedly is average at best with the glove. I really couldn't tell you if average fastball velo is better in the AFL than it is in AA, but perhaps it is. I wouldn't be so dismissive of reports from these prospect rankers, they watch a lot of MiLB ABs.

 

I was more just being facetious and mocking those who would immediately write him off as a prospect due to body type. Your points are valid for sure.

[Dr. Dinger]

I love how this spun into a 2 page rebuttal of Tellez rather than a celebration of Guerrero being proclaimed an elite prospect.

[Captain Adama]

I love how this spun into a 2 page rebuttal of Tellez rather than a celebration of Guerrero being proclaimed an elite prospect.

 

I'm just curious though, at what point do the numbers speak for themselves? IIRC you want a guy who starts putting up results at a higher level instead of a scout's wet dream. It's not like Tellez is a Kevin Pillar situation either, where he's hitting in a league where he's old enough to be the pitchers dad, Tellez is one of the youngest players in the league and he just threw up a 150 wRC+. After high A, I think it's time that if a guy keeps hitting like Tellez does, you tell those old crusty scouts to shove it and start considering Tellez to be a legit prospect.

[Ray]

Scouts on Tellez:

[Boxcar]

Longenhagen doesn't think he has the bat speed, and says a lot of scouts feel the same way.

 

I've always found this thing amusing. How the f*** can a 60 year old man tell the difference in bat speed between several different guys?

[Laika]

I've always found this thing amusing. How the f*** can a 60 year old man tell the difference in bat speed between several different guys?

 

They think they're seeing something that they aren't. They'll generally look at things like swing path, hitches, etc. and fallaciously infer that a guy has a slow bat.

 

Of course there are players that really do just have bad reflexes, and slower twitch swings. Maybe sometimes this is noticeable. I really doubt it though.

 

Guaranteed, control for absolutely everything else in a blind experiment and some scouts would say David Ortiz has a slow swing.

[Jonn]

I've always found this thing amusing. How the f*** can a 60 year old man tell the difference in bat speed between several different guys?

 

They can hear it.

[Dr. Dinger]

They think they're seeing something that they aren't. They'll generally look at things like swing path, hitches, etc. and fallaciously infer that a guy has a slow bat.

 

Of course there are players that really do just have bad reflexes, and slower twitch swings. Maybe sometimes this is noticeable. I really doubt it though.

 

Guaranteed, control for absolutely everything else in a blind experiment and some scouts would say David Ortiz has a slow swing.

 

My fav is when scouts say that a hitter keeps his bat path in the zone for a long time. That's a good thing, but a slow swing is a bad thing.

[burlingtonbandit]

My fav is when scouts say that a hitter keeps his bat path in the zone for a long time. That's a good thing, but a slow swing is a bad thing.

 

You can have a swing plane that allows your bat to stay in the zone longer without it being a "slow swing"

[Dr. Dinger]

You can have a swing plane that allows your bat to stay in the zone longer without it being a "slow swing"

 

It can be long, but it better not be slow!

[Captain Adama]

It can be long, but it better not be slow!

 

I wonder what a scout's reaction would be to a slow, short swing?

[Captain Adama]

I didn't see this posted but apparently Saunders got 9 million from the Phillies with a second year option.