Around Baseball 2017

[Dr. Dinger]

WTH are the Rays smoking here?

[Dr. Dinger]

Matt Andriese owners rejoice!

[King]

Dipoto is playing fantasy baseball IRL

[Ray]

Dipoto basically trained to be a GM in OOTP.

[Laika]

WTH are the Rays smoking here?

 

It was said back in October that they would probably trade Smyly to keep team salary down.

 

Carlos Vargas was a 2015 bonus baby (1.5M or something.) It's possible that the Rays are "on" him early similar to Adames.

[Terminator]

Not great either. Felix is trash now, Iwakuma is a creaky old SP3, Smyly isn't built to last, Gallardo is complete garbage. Paxton good but not reliable.

 

Yeah it's definitely a weakness of the team. They should be a strong WC contender next year though.

[Laika]

You don't think that's Wild Card-contender good?

 

FWIW, Rays' staff is now Archer, Odorizzi, Cobb, Snell... Andriese? Honeywell?

 

Oh I think they'll contend for a wild card spot, but that's not saying too much with the two wild card system.

 

The Rays rotation is vastly superior and they have arguably the best minor league SP depth in baseball. It almost makes me embarrassed to be a Jays fan, comparing.

[Brownie19]

stat-scouting - Carlos Vargas is an interesting prospect. High BB%, low K%. His numbers were dragged down by a low BABIP last year.

[P2F]

There go my chances of getting Vargas at 103 in the LOD NPD.

 

Damn you, Rays.

[King]

Tampa Bay Rays ‏@RaysBaseball 4m4 minutes ago

The #Rays have also claimed OF Jason Coats off waivers from the #WhiteSox and designated RHP Dylan Floro for assignment.

[Ray]

I think when it's all said and done, the Rays will make out like bandits in this deal. I really like Mallex Smith. Yarbarough and Vargas are good lottery tickets.

[Orgfiller]

Felix, Iwakuma, Smyly, Paxton, Gallardo. Not bad. Missing the WC by two games seems to have really stung for Seattle. There were some really inopportune bounces against the Mariners in that elimination game against Oakland.

 

It's a great rotation 2-3 years ago, but most of those guys carry huge red flags now.

[Laika]

stat-scouting - Carlos Vargas is an interesting prospect. High BB%, low K%. His numbers were dragged down by a low BABIP last year.

 

BB and K rates basically don't matter in rookie ball

[Abomination]

WTH are the Rays smoking here?

 

I'm very happy to see Smyly go to Seattle (fantasy sports reasons), but imo if they Rays are going to trade someone like him they should be looking for less volume and more quality.

[Spanky__99]

 

classic rays

 

Holy f***!

[jerb]

 

Jesse Sanchez Verified account

‏@JesseSanchezMLB

Source: Santiago Casilla deal with A's is done. Two-year deal for $11 million. He can make up to $3 million more in performance bonuses.

[Spanky__99]

 

Jesse Sanchez Verified account

‏@JesseSanchezMLB

Source: Santiago Casilla deal with A's is done. Two-year deal for $11 million. He can make up to $3 million more in performance bonuses.

 

Figured that'd get done today. Another good deal by the A's. Seems like the LHRP's are much more expensive.

[Abomination]

 

Jesse Sanchez Verified account

‏@JesseSanchezMLB

Source: Santiago Casilla deal with A's is done. Two-year deal for $11 million. He can make up to $3 million more in performance bonuses.

 

I wonder if the A's will try to cash in on Doolittle now?

[Spanky__99]

I wonder if the A's will try to cash in on Doolittle now?

 

Nats...

[Ray]

Speaking of, I wonder what type return we could get for Osuna at this point. Not advocating trading him. He's the only truly elite arm in the pen. But a 21-year closer who throws 98 mph fastballs in this market is worth a pretty penny. Like would a team like the Nats who desperately need a closer and are going all in trade Robles+ for him.

[burlingtonbandit]

Speaking of, I wonder what type return we could get for Osuna at this point. Not advocating trading him. He's the only truly elite arm in the pen. But a 21-year closer who throws 98 mph fastballs in this market is worth a pretty penny. Like would a team like the Nats who desperately need a closer and are going all in trade Robles+ for him.

 

Maybe they trade him after seeing how ugly his form on the leg press was...

[Rusty_Savage]

Maybe they trade him after seeing how ugly his form on the leg press was...

 

Or just how ugly he is

[HERPDERP]

Maybe they trade him after seeing how ugly his form on the leg press was...

 

made me cringe.

 

0 rep

 

0 rep

 

0 rep

 

he should get on Sanchez' program

[Brownie19]

I love how he has an 11 year old kid as his spotter.

[Brownie19]

BB and K rates basically don't matter in rookie ball

 

Isn't that one of the things people are impressed about with Vlad Jr.?

 

Perhaps that's just the people who aren't as smart as NJH (such as me).

[Laika]

Isn't that one of the things people are impressed about with Vlad Jr.?

 

Perhaps that's just the people who aren't as smart as NJH (such as me).

 

Sorry, I just realized that I misspoke.

 

IIRC - BB% in the low minors is irrelevant to essentially irrelevant in projecting hitting prospects.

K% does carry significance.

 

I think the biggest takeaway here is that walk rate doesn’t matter very much at the lower levels of the minors. In fact, it’s not predictive at all for players in rookie ball or Low-A. And even as high as Double-A, a one percent change in strikeout rate affects a player’s projection by about 1.5 times as much as a one percent change in walk rate.

 

Intuitively, this makes sense. A hitter doesn’t need to be particularly good at hitting to run a high walk rate in the low minors, as pitchers at these levels often have little idea where the ball’s going. As a result, batters can get away with taking an ultra-passive approach in the hopes they’ll see four balls before they see three strikes. That strategy might work in Rookie ball or A-ball, but it can lose its effectiveness in the upper levels, where pitchers have a better handle on their control.

 

To be clear, this isn’t to say that a high-walk prospect is no more likely to make it than a low-walk prospect. Walk rate generally correlates with future success, but only because it’s collinear with ISO. Simply put, players who hit for power also tend to walk a lot, but it’s the power–rather than the walks–that predicts big league performance.

[Brownie19]

Sorry, I just realized that I misspoke.

 

IIRC - BB% in the low minors is irrelevant to essentially irrelevant in projecting hitting prospects.

K% does carry significance.

 

I appreciate being corrected. The best part of this board is learning from those who are wiser than I.

[TheHurl]

I'm very happy to see Smyly go to Seattle (fantasy sports reasons), but imo if they Rays are going to trade someone like him they should be looking for less volume and more quality.

 

isn't Tampa more of a pitchers park than Seattle these days? I think it suppresses HR's more.

[Abomination]

isn't Tampa more of a pitchers park than Seattle these days? I think it suppresses HR's more.

 

They seem pretty similar. As a destination for him to go to (and it sounds like he was going SOMEWHERE), it's a pretty good spot. Could have been a little better, but could have been much, much worse.

[TheHurl]

They seem pretty similar. As a destination for him to go to (and it sounds like he was going SOMEWHERE), it's a pretty good spot. Could have been a little better, but could have been much, much worse.

 

His cutter was absolutely s*** last year. Will be interesting to see if Seattle has him abandon it.