Trade for Andrew McCutchen (NJH #7)

[Dr. Dinger]

Can I propose a deal?

 

To Jays: Andrew McCutchen

 

To Pirates: Jose Quintana (who they apparently want)

 

To ChiSox: Anthony Alford, Sean Reid-Foley, Tyler Glasnow

[Brownie19]

Can I propose a deal?

 

To Jays: Andrew McCutchen

 

To Pirates: Jose Quintana (who they apparently want)

 

To ChiSox: Anthony Alford, Sean Reid-Foley, Tyler Glasnow

 

Interesting - although I suspect Pittsburgh could create a package based around Glasnow and a couple lesser prospects to land Quintana, while dealing McCutchen separately for a better haul.

[burlingtonbandit]

Can I propose a deal?

 

To Jays: Andrew McCutchen

 

To Pirates: Jose Quintana (who they apparently want)

 

To ChiSox: Anthony Alford, Sean Reid-Foley, Tyler Glasnow

 

I don't even think the Jays FO does that.

[Brownie19]

There's a story on the Score app "6 bold trades we want to see this offseason"

 

It suggests McCutchen to Toronto - noting they may have to give up major-league, long-term controllable pieces like Dalton Pompey and Joe Biagini. Where the F do we sign up for that?

 

It also suggests Profar for Puig....which actually makes a lot of sense. Odd article.

[crmr]

Can I propose a deal?

 

To Jays: Andrew McCutchen

 

To Pirates: Jose Quintana (who they apparently want)

 

To ChiSox: Anthony Alford, Sean Reid-Foley, Tyler Glasnow

 

I know you used to argue that Travis Snider was 100% going to be perennial all-star even though it was clear he didn't quite have it, but how do the Jays end up with McCutchen for two midpack prospects? No way does Pittsburgh make this deal.

[Orgfiller]

Can I propose a deal?

 

To Jays: Andrew McCutchen

 

To Pirates: Jose Quintana (who they apparently want)

 

To ChiSox: Anthony Alford, Sean Reid-Foley, Tyler Glasnow

 

I'd say the Pirates do a hard pass on that. McCutchen AND Glasnow for Quintana? No thanks. I'd say the Jays only paying Alford and SRF for Cutch is a steal, and the White Sox do really well here as well. Quintana is excellent and very cheap, but I don't think there's any way the Pirates accept this.

[Dr. Dinger]

Quintana is much better than Cutch, not to mention cheaper, younger and under contract longer.

[BTS]

I know you used to argue that Travis Snider was 100% going to be perennial all-star even though it was clear he didn't quite have it, but how do the Jays end up with McCutchen for two midpack prospects? No way does Pittsburgh make this deal.

 

Didn't we just have an exchange where you were complaining that the dialogue on this site is generally bad and tends to be unnecessarily confrontational? Why respond to something intended as a conversation starter with what amounts to "lol you were so wrong 8 years ago"?

[Bobthe4th]

Didn't we just have an exchange where you were complaining that the dialogue on this site is generally bad and tends to be unnecessarily confrontational? Why respond to something intended as a conversation starter with what amounts to "lol you were so wrong 8 years ago"?

 

A bit random wasn't it!

[crmr]

Didn't we just have an exchange where you were complaining that the dialogue on this site is generally bad and tends to be unnecessarily confrontational? Why respond to something intended as a conversation starter with what amounts to "lol you were so wrong 8 years ago"?

 

This particular one I can't resist. Largely because he couldn't even entertain the idea that Snider may not be good. And, if it were 8 years ago I'd let it slide, but I'm pretty sure it was 4-5 years ago.

 

I also gave my point later in the post to be fair, so I kept it going.

[Dr. Dinger]

I know you used to argue that Travis Snider was 100% going to be perennial all-star even though it was clear he didn't quite have it, but how do the Jays end up with McCutchen for two midpack prospects? No way does Pittsburgh make this deal.

 

Alford and SRF are Top 100 prospects. The Pirates won't deal Meadows to get Quintana.

[Dr. Dinger]

This particular one I can't resist. Largely because he couldn't even entertain the idea that Snider may not be good. And, if it were 8 years ago I'd let it slide, but I'm pretty sure it was 4-5 years ago.

 

I also gave my point later in the post to be fair, so I kept it going.

 

I dont know you, but thanks for obsessing over and paraphrasing something I wrote on the internet a decade ago.

[crmr]

I dont know you, but thanks for obsessing over something I wrote on the internet a decade ago.

 

You were so sure entering 2011 (I'm pretty sure), that Snider was going to be a perennial all-star, even saying someone would be dumb for not seeing it. It's hard to forget something like that!

 

Good try saying it was a decade ago though, my poitn was you took a while to update your information, not that your information was initially wrong (which would have been reasonable)

[Orgfiller]

Quintana is much better than Cutch, not to mention cheaper, younger and under contract longer.

Quintana has only had one season where he was more valuable than McCutchen, that was last season, obviously the reason why Cutch's value isn't at his usual superstar value, Quintana is by no stretch "much better" unless you think the former will stick around as a sub 1 win player going forward. The latter also happens to be a pitcher, those guys are much bigger risks than a hitter like McCutchen who's never been injury prone throughout his career and still projects to be an above-average player next season with potential for much higher. If this was Quintana for McCutchen + minor prospect(s)/average MLB regular then it might be fair, but Tyler Glasnow is a top 10 prospect in baseball with big upside, and is under control for a long time. No way I would add him to that deal, and I don't think the Pirates would either.

[Dr. Dinger]

I'm struggling to see the relevance of your point, if you have one.

[crmr]

I'm struggling to see the relevance of your point, if you have one.

 

My point is when you make posts that come across with certainty, such as "Quintana is much better than Cutch" one should read it more as "I think Quintana is much better than Cutch, but like you I really have no idea, and have a history of being wrong"

[Dr. Dinger]

Quintana has only had one season where he was more valuable than McCutchen, that was last season, obviously the reason why Cutch's value isn't at his usual superstar value, Quintana is by no stretch "much better" unless you think the former will stick around as a sub 1 win player going forward. The latter also happens to be a pitcher, those guys are much bigger risks than a hitter like McCutchen who's never been injury prone throughout his career and still projects to be an above-average player next season with potential for much higher. If this was Quintana for McCutchen + minor prospect(s)/average MLB regular then it might be fair, but Tyler Glasnow is a top 10 prospect in baseball with big upside, and is under control for a long time. No way I would add him to that deal, and I don't think the Pirates would either.

 

Quintana is under control for twice as long, likely to produce more WAR, and allows them to save payroll while also handing the reins to Meadows, who at this point is probably as good as McCutchen. A lot of people also think Glasnow is a reliever.

[Dr. Dinger]

My point is when you make posts that come across with certainty, such as "Quintana is much better than Cutch" one should read it more as "I think Quintana is much better than Cutch, but like you I really have no idea, and have a history of being wrong"

 

Quintana had 5x as much WAR this year and is 3 years younger. You are wildly overrating Cutch's present trade value. It's considerably less than Adam Eaton.

[crmr]

Quintana had 5x as much WAR this year and is 3 years younger.

 

Over how many years? I assume you don't mean one, because it would probably be ill-advised to base everything on the last year

[Orgfiller]

Quintana had 5x as much WAR this year and is 3 years younger. You are wildly overrating Cutch's present trade value. It's considerably less than Adam Eaton.

 

Um, he's like 2.5 years younger.

[crmr]

Um, he's like 2.5 years younger.

 

He just keeps cherry picking stats, can't really have a discussion about it.

 

I think you're right, Pittsburgh doesn't like that deal at all.

[Dr. Dinger]

Um, he's like 2.5 years younger.

 

That seems like an awfully pedantic correction, but ok.

[crmr]

As an interesting thinking point:

 

http://cdn.fangraphs.com/blogs/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/Pitcher_Curves_All_BIP1.png

 

What happens when Quintana's velocity takes a turn for the worse? He's hitting the dropoff point for velo

[Orgfiller]

Quintana is under control for twice as long, likely to produce more WAR, and allows them to save payroll while also handing the reins to Meadows, who at this point is probably as good as McCutchen. A lot of people also think Glasnow is a reliever.

 

I'm not disputing Quintana's value, he's a very good pitcher with an extremely team-friendly deal. I think you're undervaluing McCutchen a lot based on one admittedly worrisome down year. He was still a top 5 player in baseball for the 5 previous seasons or so, which is why the projections still have him as a 3.5 win player going into next season. He's still only 30, sure he's no longer in his prime, but that doesn't mean we should just discount him as a very good player going forward. I don't think you can just say that Meadows is probably as good at this point, unless you believe that 1) McCutchen is done as an above-average player, 2) Meadows is really good and should be expected to be at least 3 wins next season (highly improbable for any prospect, not to mention one which hasn't garnered nearly as much prospect hype as others). Also, just because some people believe that Glasnow is a reliever, the Pirates not withstanding, doesn't mean they should sell him as one when industry consensus is that he's a top 10 prospect with top of the rotation upside.

[Orgfiller]

That seems like an awfully pedantic correction, but ok.

 

You originally said 4 years, it's not a small difference to point out. Quintana is still a starter and his risk is therefore higher than a position player.

[Dr. Dinger]

I'm not disputing Quintana's value, he's a very good pitcher with an extremely team-friendly deal. I think you're undervaluing McCutchen a lot based on one admittedly worrisome down year. He was still a top 5 player in baseball for the 5 previous seasons or so, which is why the projections still have him as a 3.5 win player going into next season. He's still only 30, sure he's no longer in his prime, but that doesn't mean we should just discount him as a very good player going forward. I don't think you can just say that Meadows is probably as good at this point, unless you believe that 1) McCutchen is done as an above-average player, 2) Meadows is really good and should be expected to be at least 3 wins next season (highly improbable for any prospect, not to mention one which hasn't garnered nearly as much prospect hype as others). Also, just because some people believe that Glasnow is a reliever, the Pirates not withstanding, doesn't mean they should sell him as one when industry consensus is that he's a top 10 prospect with top of the rotation upside.

 

I think Cutch is maybe a 3-4 win player now, but probably not. His defense is bad and his speed and batting average have collapsed. In my opinion the difference between 4 years of Quintana at his salary and 2 years of Cutch at his salary is worth a prospect like Glasnow, you are free to disagree. Quintana's projected value is exceptional and McCutchen could easily be a $0 asset now.

[Dr. Dinger]

You originally said 4 years, it's not a small difference to point out. Quintana is still a starter and his risk is therefore higher than a position player.

 

Read your own quote before you post.

[BTS]

Glad to finally have you aboard the Quintana hype train dinger. It's a thoroughly unsexy but incredibly efficient ride!

[Dr. Dinger]

Glad to finally have you aboard the Quintana hype train dinger. It's a thoroughly unsexy but incredibly efficient ride!

 

He's boring AF to me but could provide 15+ WAR on a bargain basement contract. Tons of surplus value, whereas Cutch's value completely tanked. They want Quintana, clearly, but they aren't getting him with Glasnow alone and they won't trade Meadows. They're also cash strapped. Trading Cutch in a 3-way for Quintana makes sense, but clearly they would need to add a piece.

[Orgfiller]

Read your own quote before you post.

 

http://i.imgur.com/1MekRSd.jpg

 

This is what I was replying to. I didn't notice you had edited your post by then. They'll still be playing their respective age 30 and 28 seasons, it's not a huge difference and again accounting for the fact that Quintana is more likely to miss an extended period of time.