Jays sign Morales 3 years 33M

[Brownie19]

you are wrong that clutch is not a skill, you are born with it. You cant learn it. It is the ability to rise to the occasion, the opportunity, instead of getting nervous and either trying too hard or getting so confused that you cant concentrate.

Good closers are very good examples of clutch pitchers.

Pat Tabler had the ability to hit +.500 with the bases loaded.

Molitor, Carter, JB, George Bell, Alomar could all get hits when the game was on the line.

There is a very noticeable trait about HOF batters, they all could hit in the clutch.

 

Go look at those player stats and explain why one season they hit .350 with RISP and .200 the next. You're going to lose this debate.

[Grant77]

After sleeping on this, I hate the 3rd year of this deal. Don't like the idea of committing long term to a guy who has no defensive or speed impact, that's in his mid 30s already.

 

I absolutely agree. I would rather see us wait him out a bit more, given the abundance of options on the market. This deal would look better if we struck out on more interesting targets and signed him in a month.

[G-Snarls]

After sleeping on this, I hate the 3rd year of this deal. Don't like the idea of committing long term to a guy who has no defensive or speed impact, that's in his mid 30s already, who really is only an average, maybe slightly above average bat.

 

Which do you dislike more - year 3 for Morales or years 4 and 5 for Edwin (if it takes 5)

[G-Snarls]

I absolutely agree. I would rather see us wait him out a bit more, given the abundance of options on the market. This deal would look better if we struck out on more interesting targets and signed him in a month.

 

It doesn't always work like that though and we don't know what goes on behind closed doors

 

For all we know Edwin has told them no way he signs here for what the Jays are willing to offer, Beltran's agent won't even return our calls and Morales said the Royals are offering the same deal and they have to decide within 24 hours or he'll sign there

 

I made all that up but hopefully it makes the point

[Mittens87]

Too much luck in baseball for it to take clutch too seriously. Down by 1 in the 9th if Donaldson hits a hard line drive and the 3rd baseman makes a diving play it's not clutch, but if it gets by him it is?

[SweetSmellingChacin]

Which do you dislike more - year 3 for Morales or years 4 and 5 for Edwin (if it takes 5)

 

I'd dislike Edwin's 5th year the worst for sure.

[Brownie19]

you are wrong that clutch is not a skill, you are born with it. You cant learn it. It is the ability to rise to the occasion, the opportunity, instead of getting nervous and either trying too hard or getting so confused that you cant concentrate.

Good closers are very good examples of clutch pitchers.

Pat Tabler had the ability to hit +.500 with the bases loaded.

Molitor, Carter, JB, George Bell, Alomar could all get hits when the game was on the line.

There is a very noticeable trait about HOF batters, they all could hit in the clutch.

 

I bet you think Joe Carter was a good hitter too

[Mittens87]

I bet you think Joe Carter was a good hitter too

 

A couple big hits will stick in people mind not the other 10 times they didn't come through before that. I think basketball you could put a bit more stock in clutch shots late in the game

 

Ortiz has actually been below the average of his career in clutch situations.

[Grant77]

It doesn't always work like that though and we don't know what goes on behind closed doors

 

For all we know Edwin has told them no way he signs here for what the Jays are willing to offer, Beltran's agent won't even entertain any offers from the Jays and Morales said the Royals are offering the same deal and they have to decide within 24 hours or he'll take their offer

 

I made all that up but hopefully it makes the point

 

Those are fair points, but Edwin and Beltran are far from the only options. There's Holliday, Moss, Napoli, Thames, Bautista, Saunders, and more.

 

If Morales is giving us an ultimatum at this point in the offseason then we should have called his bluff in my opinion.

 

I understand jumping on pitching if you see a decent deal, but patient teams are rewarded in a rich market for DH- type bats. You'll see a team or two get nice bargains on the bats I mentioned, I'm almost certain.

[Maico450]

Go look at those player stats and explain why one season they hit .350 with RISP and .200 the next. You're going to lose this debate.

Take a look at Saunders career. He has never hit in clutch situations, hence he has never had many season rbi,s.

Smoak, same thing. poor clutch, poor rbi,s every year.

Great hitters control the situation. fowling off pitches until they get one they like, taking advantage of pitchers mistakes,

hitting to defensive weaknesses, sure there is some luck involved, but are good hitters lucky, and poor hitters unlucky?

Don't think so.

[G-Snarls]

I understand jumping on pitching if you see a decent deal, but patient teams are rewarded in a rich market for DH- type bats. You'll see a team or two get nice bargains on the bats I mentioned, I'm almost certain.

 

I'm sure that's true

 

1 or 2 of those guys could easily still be looking for a job come February and have to accept a 1 year deal

[G-Snarls]

Is Maico450 just trolling or...

[Mittens87]

Take a look at Saunders career. He has never hit in clutch situations, hence he has never had many season rbi,s.

Smoak, same thing. poor clutch, poor rbi,s every year.

Great hitters control the situation. fowling off pitches until they get one they like, taking advantage of pitchers mistakes,

hitting to defensive weaknesses, sure there is some luck involved, but are good hitters lucky, and poor hitters unlucky?

Don't think so.

 

The view is skewed because they generally don't hit anyway. A .300 career batter will be bound to have some of those hits count more than someone like smoak. Smoak was very clutch in Texas, against Minnesota too.

 

So good clutch hitters don't try as hard in lower leverage spots ?

[BTS]

you are wrong that clutch is not a skill, you are born with it. You cant learn it. It is the ability to rise to the occasion, the opportunity, instead of getting nervous and either trying too hard or getting so confused that you cant concentrate.

Good closers are very good examples of clutch pitchers.

Pat Tabler had the ability to hit +.500 with the bases loaded.

Molitor, Carter, JB, George Bell, Alomar could all get hits when the game was on the line.

There is a very noticeable trait about HOF batters, they all could hit in the clutch.

 

Clutch score measures a player's performance in high-leverage situations vs. their own performance in context-neutral situations. A positive score means they were better in the clutch, a score close to 0 means they performed the same in high leverage situations as in context neutral situations, and a negative score means they were poor in the clutch. The guys you list:

 

Joe Carter = -2.07

Paul Molitor = 2.77

Jose Bautista = -3.95

George Bell = -4.00

Roberto Alomar = 2.36

 

So five players you that perceived as being clutch were on the whole bad in clutch situations in their careers. You perceive them as being clutch because they were good hitters (except Carter), and thus had a lot of hits, including at important times. You remember the big hits and forget the times they failed in big situations.

[G-Snarls]

Paul Molitor was so good

[G-Snarls]

Pat Tabler had the ability to hit +.500 with the bases loaded

 

How many plate appearances did Tabby have with the bases loaded

 

I just have to know

[jays_fever]

How many plate appearances did Tabby have with the bases loaded

 

I just have to know

 

42. Only struck out twice though which is really impressive.

[G-Snarls]

42. Only struck out twice though which is really impressive.

 

Super clutch

[KingKat]

Is Maico450 just trolling or...

 

My guess is probably not. I think nearly every baseball fan thought like he does at some point (except for maybe some really young fans who grew up after Sabermetrics went mainstream). Hopefully, he realizes that this question has been thoroughly researched and won't keep doubling down. I get that players aren't robots. I get that they get nervous or whatnot but ultimately the stats show that this doesn't affect their performance nearly as much as one might think. It probably affects it some but overall it's negligible, as has been demonstrated time and time again players tend over time to perform to their overall abilities and close the gap between their clutch and non-clutch numbers.

Edited November 14, 2016 by KingKat

[wamco]

That being said there are certainly players on the team , even if similar offensive caliber, that I want up with the game on the line and others I don't.

[Rusty_Savage]

Morales numbers will improve at Rogers Centre. His floor for all of next season is 30 HR.

 

It Wednesday, Gary

[43211234]

Hopefully this signing works out as well or maybe even better than the Franklin Morales signing!

[Brownie19]

Clutch score measures a player's performance in high-leverage situations vs. their own performance in context-neutral situations. A positive score means they were better in the clutch, a score close to 0 means they performed the same in high leverage situations as in context neutral situations, and a negative score means they were poor in the clutch. The guys you list:

 

Joe Carter = -2.07

Paul Molitor = 2.77

Jose Bautista = -3.95

George Bell = -4.00

Roberto Alomar = 2.36

 

So five players you that perceived as being clutch were on the whole bad in clutch situations in their careers. You perceive them as being clutch because they were good hitters (except Carter), and thus had a lot of hits, including at important times. You remember the big hits and forget the times they failed in big situations.

 

What is Morales at for a clutch rating? He legit seems clutch

[RealAccountant]

Hopefully this signing works out as well or maybe even better than the Franklin Morales signing!

 

There is no way for this signing to be a net positive. Morales is not going to be with 4 WAR as a dh over 3 years

 

He was last in terms of DH value last year

[wamco]

It's almost like there is more to baseball than WAR.

[Spanky99]

Spanky, give your head a shake.....

 

lol... so you believe in "Clutch".

 

K...........

[o2cui2i]

for all the clutch comments, what are pat Tabler's numbers with bases loaded? lol god like?

[jays_fever]

for all the clutch comments, what are pat Tabler's numbers with bases loaded? lol god like?

 

Im not going to look them up again but he never struck out and hit a truckload of singles.

[Grant77]

for all the clutch comments, what are pat Tabler's numbers with bases loaded? lol god like?

 

God like is a fair description. It wouldn't surprise me if he was one of the best ever (min 100 PA), but I really don't know.

 

Nobody on: .261/.324/.353 (2267 PA)

 

RISP: .317/.388/.442 (1294 PA)

 

Bases loaded: .484/.505/.693 (109 PA)

[Maico450]

God like is a fair description. It wouldn't surprise me if he was one of the best ever (min 100 PA), but I really don't know.

 

Nobody on: .261/.324/.353 (2267 PA)

 

RISP: .317/.388/.442 (1294 PA)

 

Bases loaded: .484/.505/.693 (109 PA)

 

I rest my case.