Jays sign Morales 3 years 33M

[Governator]

Any guesses on what the best offer was?

 

1 year, 17.2MM

[BigBounceyBlueBalls]

It was actually close to 5M Toronto was responsible for over 2016 and 2017. They just elected to put it all on the 2016 books.

 

Awesome, trade him to a small market team for no cost to them, bullpen help or better prospect for us, all good! Win win

[Jimcanuck]

With the salary room freed up, wouldn't be surprised if a few more Liriano type moves happen, where an overpaid player and a couple of blue chip prospects come to the org

[BTS]

 

Sure sounds like this move signifies that the book is closed on Edwin.

[UWHabs]

Any guesses on what the best offer was?

 

My guess is we weren't willing to offer the 5th year, so probably maxed out around 4/80 or 4/90, while he's still holding out for 5/100 or 5/110.

[jerb]

It doesn't sound like Shi Davidi thinks Edwin is coming back: http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/blue-jays-begin-lineup-retooling-effort-morales-signing/

 

The Toronto Blue Jays began retooling their lineup by reaching agreement on a $33-million, three-year contract with Kendrys Morales pending a physical, a move that that essentially parts ways with Edwin Encarnacion and sets up Justin Smoak to see plenty of action at first base.

[Candy Maldonado]

It doesn't sound like Shi Davidi thinks Edwin is coming back: http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/blue-jays-begin-lineup-retooling-effort-morales-signing/

 

eww

[jays4life19]

Barf @ "plenty of action for Smoak at first base"

[Krylian]

Well... If this $160m payroll is true that's been floated out there (and I have no doubt that it isn't), and our new 1B/DH combo is Smoak and Morales... That leaves a lot of cash to finish off the OF and bring in a couple of BP arms.

[saskjayfan]

Cheap bastards

[Gary]

1 year, 17.2MM

lol

[King]

lol

Wow!

[wamco]

I think this FO also values the theory that a bird in hand is better than two in the bush. Especially when you've got a lot of holes to fill. You wait around for better options or even the perfect option and sometimes they can all dry up. Last year they struck early by signing Happ.

 

Speaking of bushes and holes to fill, my buddy banged Dave bush's sister.

[Laika]

On Morales' poor baserunning....

 

The way Fangraphs BsR works is that the run value of each base running event is summed up as the season goes along. For example, if a player is on second base and the batter hits a single, the baserunner is graded based on how often the average player scores in that particular situation. Morales scores less often from second on singles, advances to third from first less often on singles, scores less often on doubles, etc.

 

On a team like the Royals poor baserunning value is magnified because the Royals rely heavily on small-ball. They plunk singles for days, try to advance runners and keep the line moving, bunt, and when they get "the big hit" it's more than likely a double.

 

Toronto doesn't play like this. If Morales is on first base and Tulo or Martin swing for the downs with success then his baserunning is irrelevant. Morales' baserunning will be irrelevant on the Blue Jays a lot more often than it was on the Royals. So, don't expect his BsR to be as bad. But I can't quantify how much better it should be.

 

And on park factors....

 

Be careful when you say that Morales should be a better player because the Rogers Centre is a hitters park. It's true that his offensive numbers will be (or should be) better, but that probably won't make his hitting worth any more. That's not how park factors work. You would only expect him to actually be worth more if he has a certain skill-set that is specifically and personally catered to the environment.

[TBJ12]

Solid deal. Morales at $11M makes more sense than EE at $25M.

[jays4life19]

On Morales' poor baserunning....

 

The way Fangraphs BsR works is that the run value of each base running event is summed up as the season goes along. For example, if a player is on second base and the batter hits a single, the baserunner is graded based on how often the average player scores in that particular situation. Morales scores less often from second on singles, advances to third from first less often on singles, scores less often on doubles, etc.

 

On a team like the Royals poor baserunning value is magnified because the Royals rely heavily on small-ball. They plunk singles for days, try to advance runners and keep the line moving, bunt, and when they get "the big hit" it's more than likely a double.

 

Toronto doesn't play like this. If Morales is on first base and Tulo or Martin swing for the downs with success then his baserunning is irrelevant. Morales' baserunning will be irrelevant on the Blue Jays a lot more often than it was on the Royals. So, don't expect his BsR to be as bad. But I can't quantify how much better it should be.

 

And on park factors....

 

Be careful when you say that Morales should be a better player because the Rogers Centre is a hitters park. It's true that his offensive numbers will be (or should be) better, but that probably won't make his hitting worth any more. That's not how park factors work. You would only expect him to actually be worth more if he has a certain skill-set that is specifically and personally catered to the environment.

 

Like being a fly ball hitter and hitting in Toronto and not KC?

[Abomination]

On Morales' poor baserunning....

 

The way Fangraphs BsR works is that the run value of each base running event is summed up as the season goes along. For example, if a player is on second base and the batter hits a single, the baserunner is graded based on how often the average player scores in that particular situation. Morales scores less often from second on singles, advances to third from first less often on singles, scores less often on doubles, etc.

 

On a team like the Royals poor baserunning value is magnified because the Royals rely heavily on small-ball. They plunk singles for days, try to advance runners and keep the line moving, bunt, and when they get "the big hit" it's more than likely a double.

 

Toronto doesn't play like this. If Morales is on first base and Tulo or Martin swing for the downs with success then his baserunning is irrelevant. Morales' baserunning will be irrelevant on the Blue Jays a lot more often than it was on the Royals. So, don't expect his BsR to be as bad. But I can't quantify how much better it should be.

 

And on park factors....

 

Be careful when you say that Morales should be a better player because the Rogers Centre is a hitters park. It's true that his offensive numbers will be (or should be) better, but that probably won't make his hitting worth any more. That's not how park factors work. You would only expect him to actually be worth more if he has a certain skill-set that is specifically and personally catered to the environment.

 

It's "Lawrie broke WAR" issues all over again.

[Laika]

Like being a fly ball hitter and hitting in Toronto and not KC?

 

Morales was 69th (nice) out of 131 qualified players in FB% in the last two years.

 

He does not seem like an extreme FB hitter.

 

But yeah. Possibly.

[BTS]

On Morales' poor baserunning....

 

The way Fangraphs BsR works is that the run value of each base running event is summed up as the season goes along. For example, if a player is on second base and the batter hits a single, the baserunner is graded based on how often the average player scores in that particular situation. Morales scores less often from second on singles, advances to third from first less often on singles, scores less often on doubles, etc.

 

On a team like the Royals poor baserunning value is magnified because the Royals rely heavily on small-ball. They plunk singles for days, try to advance runners and keep the line moving, bunt, and when they get "the big hit" it's more than likely a double.

 

Toronto doesn't play like this. If Morales is on first base and Tulo or Martin swing for the downs with success then his baserunning is irrelevant. Morales' baserunning will be irrelevant on the Blue Jays a lot more often than it was on the Royals. So, don't expect his BsR to be as bad. But I can't quantify how much better it should be.

 

And on park factors....

 

Be careful when you say that Morales should be a better player because the Rogers Centre is a hitters park. It's true that his offensive numbers will be (or should be) better, but that probably won't make his hitting worth any more. That's not how park factors work. You would only expect him to actually be worth more if he has a certain skill-set that is specifically and personally catered to the environment.

 

Regarding the park, I think if you have a situation where a park is not known as a run suppressing environment, but does suppress homeruns (like Kauffman), a player who relies on the HR, like Morales, is ill-suited to the environment, and you might project a small wRC+ bump if that player moves to a similar offensive environment that yields homers. From what I understand, park-adjusted metrics really just use dirty math based on the overall run environment.

[Gary]

Remember when he shattered his leg celebrating a HR on home plate?

[Spanky99]

 

Daren Willman Verified account

‏@darenw

Kendrys Morales 2016 spray chart at Rogers Centre.

https://t.co/fTklShQtE0

 

Wowzers!

[Laika]

Regarding the park, I think if you have a situation where a park is not known as a run suppressing environment, but does suppress homeruns (like Kauffman), a player who relies on the HR, like Morales, is ill-suited to the environment, and you might project a small wRC+ bump if that player moves to a similar offensive environment that yields homers. From what I understand, park-adjusted metrics really just use dirty math based on the overall run environment.

 

It's possible but even then you're talking about marginal, almost irrelevant gains. I don't think Morales is that reliant on the home run. Last year (2015) he had 41 doubles. He's always struck me as more of a "pure" hitter, batting average and bat-to-ball line drive hitter than a big fly ball slug monster.

[BTS]

It's possible but even then you're talking about marginal, almost irrelevant gains. I don't think Morales is that reliant on the home run. Last year (2015) he had 41 doubles. He's always struck me as more of a "pure" hitter, batting average and bat-to-ball line drive hitter than a big fly ball slug monster.

 

Those small gains might make all the difference though. Maybe internal metrics like him a hair better than Steamer does. And they think he's a couple runs better on the bases here than in KC for the reasons you state. And they like that he's proven to be comfortable DHing. Add it all together, and they think he's closer to a 2-win guy than a 1-win guy, and they pull the trigger. Would be interesting to see where exactly their internal projections differ from his 2016 and Steamer projections.

[Spanky99]

There's a few guys on the comments saying he was offered 4/80, if EE really did turn that down, I'm disappointed. He really isn't worth more than that, that's on the high end. Take the pick and move on. *Don't know their sources*

[Omar]

They got Morales, going to get Reddick or Fowler i think, another arm for the pen and then will sit tight. Thats how i see Shatkins rolling.

[rydermike]

Morales can probably expect about 10% more home runs or so based upon park factor alone? (I'm just eyeballing park factors don't take it to the bank.)

 

So an extra 3 home runs

[Gary]

They got Morales, going to get Reddick i think, another arm for the pen and then will sit tight. Thats how i see Shatkins rolling.

The machine will keep on rolling. The Jays rebuild starts when JD's contract expires.

[Gary]

So an extra 3 home runs

 

Based on the spray chart, it'll be 7-8 extra HR.

[Spanky99]

So an extra 3 home runs

 

Spray chart above says much different. FWIW.

[rydermike]

Based on the spray chart, it'll be 7-8 extra HR.

 

Half my post somehow got deleted when I typing. I was joking that 10% of 30 HRs is only 3 extra home runs