Sign Luis Valbuena (NJH #2)

[Laika]

This will be the second of many offseason threads where I'll take a stance and advocate for the Blue Jays to make a specific move.

I may not actually think Toronto should make every move, but I'll lay out the case for it in order to generate discussion.

 

The Blue Jays should sign Luis Valbuena

 

Luis Valbuena will be 31 years old before the 2017 season and he enters free agency for the first time. Last year with the Astros he made $6.1M in his fourth year of arbitration.

 

On their list of top 50 MLB free agents with predictions, MLBTR ranks Valbuena 31st and predicts that he'll sign with the Brewers for two years and $14M total.

 

Last year with Houston Valbuena contributed 2.0 fWAR in just 342 PA. In the last five years between the Cubs and Astros Valbuena has been worth 9.6 total wins in roughly 2076 PA. That averages out to 2.77 fWAR per 600 PA.

 

No team should expect to get that type of production from Valbuena though. The lefty bat has been a platoon player for big chunks of his career and his career wRC+ is 86 against left handed pitching. While his career mark against righties (98 wRC+) does not illustrate a large platoon split, he's simply not (or hasn't been, historically) a good enough hitter to roll out against left handed arms on a starting basis.

 

Valbuena projects to be a league average hitter according to Steamer even though his batting lines in the last three seasons have all been comfortably above average.

 

Valbuena is valuable because of his broad skill-set. He can make contact, walk, hit for power, contribute on both sides of the ball, and contribute to roster flexibility.

 

In the last 3 years his relevant offensive indicators are:

 

Walk rate: 11.5%

Strikeout rate: 21.7%

ISO: .199

BABIP: .278

AVG: .243

OBP: .334

 

Valbuena has become one of the new-age offensive players who clearly understands that driving the ball in the air can be a viable approach at the dish. In terms of ISO in the last three seasons he ranks 53rd in baseball (minimum 800 PA), essentially tied with notable big-bodied sluggers like Mike Napoli and Carlos Santana. What Valbuena does at the dish is very similar to the offensive approached employed by Encarnacion, Bautista, Martin, and Tulowitzki, so he would fit right in with demonstrated team philosophies.

 

On the defensive side of things, Valbuena brings flexibility but he might not be quite as flexible as people think. He only has 15 career innings in the outfield, he hasn't touched shortstop in any meaningful way in over half a decade, he also hasn't played 2B for any meaningful sample since 2010 unless you consider 20 games in 2014 meaningful, and he only has 39 career games at first base all coming the last two seasons with the Astros. Valbuena has been almost exclusively a third baseman since 2012; he has 432 games started at 3B in the last five seasons and only 58 at other positions (1B and 2B.)

 

Valbuena's career UZR/150 at 3B is 3.6. Toronto clearly doesn't need a third baseman unless a disaster happens.

His mark at 2B is -5.4, but small sample size and the passage of time make that number almost meaningless.

I'm sure Valbuena can play 1B just fine but if he's going to fit on the Blue Jays roster then he probably needs to be able to cover 2B at least in a part-time or backup role and he needs to be able to play LF well enough to fill a platoon role. Whether or not he can actually do those things is hard for me to answer. It's a question for the scouting department.

 

But even if Valbuena gets a lot of his PA as a DH/1B he could be an asset for the Blue Jays. This is especially true if he is coupled with the acquisition of a strong RHB platoon partner, such as Steve Pearce. You can do A LOT worse than a Valbuena/Pearce platoon at DH (and arguably, it's hard to do much better.) In the last three years Valbuena has been a bit of a slugger; he's not a player that necessarily needs to be on the field in order to be valuable in the sense of WAR.

 

If you can sign a guy who has averaged 2.77 WAR per 600 PA in the last five years to a two-year contract for $7M AAV, then you should probably go ahead and do it if there's any feasible way to work him into the lineup. I think there is a feasible way. He's a good hitter and it really seems like he's figured out this baseball thing, at least on the hitting side. Sign him.

[Dr. Dinger]

Didn't we already have him once?

[Laika]

Yup.

 

November 26, 2011: Purchased by the Toronto Blue Jays from the Cleveland Indians.

April 4, 2012: Selected off waivers by the Chicago Cubs from the Toronto Blue Jays.

 

Really needed to get Omar Vizquel onto the roster.

[Dr. Dinger]

Oh that's so weird. I thought I remembered him playing a few games for us. Maybe just Spring Training games.

[Brownie19]

I approve this message

[Jonn]

Oh Valbuena Valbuena Valbuena

[Maahfaace]

I enjoy reading stuff like this, nice work NJH and keep it up, the board could use more of this.

[Angrioter]

NJH our new GM

[Slade]

A's will sign this guy to be their full time third baseman.

[Laika]

A's will sign this guy to be their full time third baseman.

 

Ryon Healy

[KingKat]

I enjoy reading stuff like this, nice work NJH and keep it up, the board could use more of this.

 

These would have made excellent posts if the blog was still active.

[Terminator]

Oh Valbuena Valbuena Valbuena

 

Are you referring to this classic?

[Terminator]

Oh that's so weird. I thought I remembered him playing a few games for us. Maybe just Spring Training games.

 

Wow yeah I almost swore he appeared in some games for us too.

[Laika]

I'm surprised we haven't signed this guy yet. I think he has the best combo of hitting, positional flexibility, upside and affordability among all remaining FAs.

 

If he's going to end up in Toronto it might be a signing that happens later in the offseason. I'm sure Valbuena's preference right now is a guaranteed starting gig, at 3B in a perfect world. Toronto can only really offer rotational playing time between 1B, DH, maybe LF, and backing up 2B and 3B.