Should Osuna Start in 2017?

[BTS]

I'm still hesitant to assume that Morrow would put up 2+ WPA seasons on a regular basis. Brett Cecil was great this year and put up a negative 2 mark. A lot of it is managerial style and luck in my opinion. I think we made the best decision in making him a starter.

 

I wouldn't assume that either. I'm not sure that there's any one metric that does a good job capturing the value of a very good reliever. fWAR isn't sufficient for the reasons I've stated. RA-9 WAR has its own issues, and WPA relies too much on context. I'm comfortable saying that I think Morrow was less valuable than his fWAR indicates, and that I think he would have been a very good reliever, and that I think very good relievers are undervalued by fWAR. I'm not saying it was a mistake that he was used as a starter, but I think it's possible that he would have added more value in relief (probable was too strong, and relies too much on subjective preferences in evaluating how valuable a pitcher is).

 

You mentioned Cecil earlier. Two people could go on for pages debating whether or not he would have been more valuable as a starter, and both could make valid and convincing arguments. In the end the decision was fine, and it might at the same time have cut into his value to the team.

[Atothe]

He's very overrated as a relief pitcher, at the very least move him while he has high value.

[ChrisS]

He's very overrated as a relief pitcher, at the very least move him while he has high value.

 

Very overrated? Explain? Please provide evidence. Top 10 closer this year and he is making 520K.

 

21 years old, 17.1 innings in the post season. 1.04 ERA

[Krylian]

Only team I could see it working for and might actually do it would be the Rays but they would need to trade Archer. SP love routines so they would hate that setup plus if you have only one club using the strategy the SP on that team lose value league wide in FA and trades.

 

Basically you would need all of baseball to adapt.

 

If it worked and TBay had success, teams would consider adapting... Just like the Royals with their pen. Got real cool, real fast to get a dominant pen.

 

I know this is different as it's a complete paradigm shift, but winning makes people open their eyes.

[TraviscantplayD]

Given how valuable relievers are now I'm surprised people are still asking the question to move him to the rotation. He probably has more trade value as a top 5-10 reliever than a number 3/4 starter.

 

Lol. In no way is he a top 10 reliever. Maybe top 30

[ChrisS]

Lol. In no way is he a top 10 reliever. Maybe top 30

He isn't "maybe top 30". He was the 15th best reliever in MLB this season by WAR

[Boxcar]

Lol. In no way is he a top 10 reliever. Maybe top 30

 

He's definitely top tier, very little question about that, and he could still get better.

[Pendleton]

Lol. In no way is he a top 10 reliever. Maybe top 30

 

20+ relievers who you think are better - go!

[TraviscantplayD]

I'm not gonna look thru every roster to find 20 but just between Orioles and Indians. There's an easy 4 right there. Then u got Betances, Davis, Kimbrel, Herrera. Those are just some of the obivious AL ones.

Don't get me wrong. He's been good, just not elite quality.

[metafour]

Kimbrel is not better than Osuna.

[burlingtonbandit]

I'm not gonna look thru every roster to find 20 but just between Orioles and Indians. There's an easy 4 right there. Then u got Betances, Davis, Kimbrel, Herrera. Those are just some of the obivious AL ones.

Don't get me wrong. He's been good, just not elite quality.

 

Don't forget the 10 innings in the postseason in which he didn't give up a run. He's not in the same tier as Miller, Chapman Janssen but he's in the next one. I don't think you can say Cody Allen is way ahead of him.

[ChrisS]

I'm not gonna look thru every roster to find 20 but just between Orioles and Indians. There's an easy 4 right there. Then u got Betances, Davis, Kimbrel, Herrera. Those are just some of the obivious AL ones.

Don't get me wrong. He's been good, just not elite quality.

176 relievers pitched 40 or more innings this year and Osuna is ranked 15th in WAR.

That's what, 92nd percentile? Sounds like elite to me.

[GD]

176 relievers pitched 40 or more innings this year and Osuna is ranked 15th in WAR.

That's what, 92nd percentile? Sounds like elite to me.

 

Lol, what? WAR is accumulated. Why are you setting a GP minimum on it?

 

"334 players had 450 PA this year, and ___'s ranked 10th in HR."

[Bobthe4th]

Lol, what? WAR is accumulated. Why are you setting a GP minimum on it?

 

"334 players had 450 PA this year, and ___'s ranked 10th in HR."

 

He's using 40 innings as a reference point to show the number of relievers who had a significant impact on their teams, so that he can show Osuna is in the top 10%.

 

Puts it in context saying 15th out of 176, rather than just saying 15th.

[ChrisS]

He's using 40 innings as a reference point to show the number of relievers who had a significant impact on their teams, so that he can show Osuna is in the top 10%.

 

Puts it in context saying 15th out of 176, rather than just saying 15th.

Exactly, I could use 10 innings but that wouldn't be fair because no chance any pitcher with 10 innings could accumulate enough WAR to make a valid comparison to be considered elite.

[Rusty_Savage]

Is WAR really the best way to evaluate a relief pitcher?

[Spanky99]

Is WAR really the best way to evaluate a relief pitcher?

 

Meh... it gives you a basic idea, but looking at SIERA/xFIP/WPA and RE24 would be more information/beneficial.

[BTS]

Is WAR really the best way to evaluate a relief pitcher?

 

It's a terrible way to evaluate a relief pitcher.

[Krylian]

Saves is the only way to truly evaluate a reliever.

[Laika]

It's a terrible way to evaluate a relief pitcher.

 

This is extremely wrong.

 

WAR is a very good way to evaluate relief pitchers.

 

There may be better ways to look at relievers that pitch in a lot of high leverage situations.

 

Check your statistical privilege man

[glory]

Why do we think he'd explode? Because he had TJ once?

 

His career high in innings was this season, all as a reliever (74 regular season innings, 9 more in the playoffs). The most he threw in the minors in a single season was 43. He has had TJ and now a shoulder issue crept up in the playoffs (may not be serious but something to keep an eye on). I just don't see how he can throw 100-150+ innings as a starter next season.

 

I think the argument of starter vs. reliever in terms of workload is definitely arguable until more data is put into it (especially with Gibbons using relievers so recklessly), but Osuna is a different case for me. Mechanics don't look great, injury history, and lack of innings. Bad combination for a starter.

 

He's already a pretty damn good reliever so just hope he has four more good seasons left in him and let him walk after that, or trade him before that.

[jays4life19]

20+ relievers who you think are better - go!

 

1. Andrew Miller

2. Kenley Jansen

3. Zach Britton

4. Edwin Diaz

5. Dellin Betances

6. Aroldis Chapman

7. Shawn Kelley

8. Seung Hwan Oh

9. Michael Feliz

10.Kelvin Herrera

11. Ken Giles

12. Addison Reed

13. Alex Colome

14.Hector Rondon

15. Will Harris

16.Dan Otero

17.Nate Jones

18. Luke Gregerson

19.Tyler Thornburg

20.Michael Lorenzen

 

See what i did there? lol

[GD]

20 is a weird cutoff point as elite. It should be like, 6 or 7. Max.

[BTS]

We're really debating whether Osuna is a top-20 reliever? I think the list of guys who are clearly better is Britton, Miller, Chapman, Betances, and Jansen.

[GD]

We're really debating whether Osuna is a top-20 reliever? I think the list of guys who are clearly better is Britton, Miller, Chapman, Betances, and Jansen.

 

Diaz, Kimbrel. Then there's a few guys in Osuna's tier who Osuna is probably better than but it's too close to definitively say.

 

Which isn't a slight to Osuna. He's awesome. Just shouldn't get carried away.

[Governator]

Diaz, Kimbrel. Then there's a few guys in Osuna's tier who Osuna is probably better than but it's too close to definitively say.

 

Which isn't a slight to Osuna. He's awesome. Just shouldn't get carried away.

 

well he's also just a kid still

[BTS]

Diaz, Kimbrel. Then there's a few guys in Osuna's tier who Osuna is probably better than but it's too close to definitively say.

 

Which isn't a slight to Osuna. He's awesome. Just shouldn't get carried away.

 

Not sure either of those are clearly better right now. Probably Diaz, but I'd like to see more than 50 innings from him.

[GD]

well he's also just a kid still

 

Do we think he's gonna get much better? Not that he needs to, lol.

 

Meh, who cares. I hate these debates. He's ours and it's great.

[Governator]

Do we think he's gonna get much better? Not that he needs to, lol.

 

Meh, who cares. I hate these debates. He's ours and it's great.

 

well he could still get stronger, wouldn't surprise me if he's throwing 100 in due time.

[GD]

well he could still get stronger, wouldn't surprise me if he's throwing 100 in due time.

 

Lol c'mon, a.) that doesn't have impact on who's better rn and b.) Who gives a s*** if he does? Appreciate what we have man.