Offseason Roster Thread 2016-17

[TheHurl]

I think Buehrle alone gave us more than everything we traded to the Marlins. Except Desclafani who is now good.

 

*Yunel had to go because he said a bad word.

 

Last time I did a calculation the package sent had netted more fWAR than the Jays got...and the Jays paid a lot more salary.

 

Since the trade Yunel 7.2, Disco 5.2, Hech 1.7, Alvarez 4.2, Marisnick 2.4, Nicolino 0.6. Only Yunel ran out of team control since then. 20.9 fWAR is like $150M for not very much total salary. Only good thing is that likely only Disco will put up much surplus moving forward.

[baubau]

He nets at a zero in his huge splashes. The Florida trade was something like a $120M net value deficit, Donaldson deal and Dickey deal probably wipe each other out.

 

To add, Yan Gomes also provided 7.8 WAR + his pitch framing was elite in 2013/2014, probably ended up at 10+ WAR (my math could be terribly wrong). Even if you add Aviles' -1.5 WAR for CLE, they still come out on top over Esmil Rogers' solid 0.2 WAR for the Jays.

 

Ya I mean, if you average out Heck, Alvarez, Marisnick, Nicolino and Mathis over 4 years, you get like maybe 0.5-1 WAR per year for each guy which is easily replaced by anyone you have in AAA. They're basically just bodies.

 

I don't think simply adding up the total WAR is really representative of the total picture. Yunel had to go though, everyone knew that and he had no value because of it.

 

While the Marlin's also traded Desclafani, he is a solid no. 3 pitcher, already having 3.1 and 2 WAR seasons.

 

I'd say AA lost a lot of players which had high value, more than he gained in his tenure. The rest of "we needed a push" / "he put us over the top" etc. I won't get into.

[KingKat]

Ya I mean, if you average out Heck, Alvarez, Marisnick, Nicolino and Mathis over 4 years, you get like maybe 0.5-1 WAR per year for each guy which is easily replaced by anyone you have in AAA. They're basically just bodies.

 

Replacement level is 0.0 WAR

[TheHurl]

Ya I mean, if you average out Heck, Alvarez, Marisnick, Nicolino and Mathis over 4 years, you get like maybe 0.5-1 WAR per year for each guy which is easily replaced by anyone you have in AAA. They're basically just bodies.

 

I don't think simply adding up the total WAR is really representative of the total picture. Yunel had to go though, everyone knew that and he had no value because of it.

 

Surplus value is just adding WAR/$ calculations and subtracting payroll. Yunel did not have to go if the F.O. played the PR issues correctly. And 2 weeks after he was dealt to the Marlins because he had no value, he was flipped for a guy that has put up $22M in excess value. No one will ever be able to convince me that the Marlins trade was not a horrible poorly thought out trade.

[Governator]

Surplus value is just adding WAR/$ calculations and subtracting payroll. Yunel did not have to go if the F.O. played the PR issues correctly. And 2 weeks after he was dealt to the Marlins because he had no value, he was flipped for a guy that has put up $22M in excess value. No one will ever be able to convince me that the Marlins trade was not a horrible poorly thought out trade.

 

To be just a little more fair, it's easier to analyze this now years later, but at the time Josh Johnson could have been a difference maker for us. Boy was that a disappointment.

[jays4life19]

To be just a little more fair, it's easier to analyze this now years later, but at the time Josh Johnson could have been a difference maker for us. Boy was that a disappointment.

 

He was only under contract for 1 year though and if he has a great/healthy season he would have gotten a huge contract.

[Governator]

He was only under contract for 1 year though and if he has a great/healthy season he would have gotten a huge contract.

 

Well of course, but considering that was a pretty hyped year, a lot of people, myself included hoped he'd help get us to the postseason and with AA running the show could have got an extension if he met expectations.

[jays4life19]

Well of course, but considering that was a pretty hyped year, a lot of people, myself included hoped he'd help get us to the postseason and with AA running the show could have got an extension if he met expectations.

 

I think a major part of the miscalculation was even if he did we were not a good enough team and had like no depth. Thus why they made the Dickey trade.

[burlingtonbandit]

AA is a pretty good executive. If he wasn't the Dodgers wouldn't have hired him. He's got very good negotiating skills and in this day and age its kind of rare to see a GM do everything so that can be pretty valuable.

[SAAviour]

AA ended 22 years of baseball purgatory, for that we should all be thankful....no matter how he did it.

[TheHurl]

To be just a little more fair, it's easier to analyze this now years later, but at the time Josh Johnson could have been a difference maker for us. Boy was that a disappointment.

 

He gave the Jays 4/10's of a win more than I predicted he would. Keep in mind with the Marlins players (and Dickey) projected at about 8 wins it still only brought the Jays up to an 83 or 84 win projection. Even if the best Josh Johnson showed up this was still probably not a team ready for a "difference maker".

[Boxcar]

is steamer even reliable when it comes to players with little track record in the majors? There's probably so much noise in his 2016 numbers

 

No, Steamer is absolutely terrible for projecting prospects.

[Boxcar]

"a bit"

 

It's a bit for Abom. Shoulder injuries are NBD, dawg.

[Governator]

He gave the Jays 4/10's of a win more than I predicted he would. Keep in mind with the Marlins players (and Dickey) projected at about 8 wins it still only brought the Jays up to an 83 or 84 win projection. Even if the best Josh Johnson showed up this was still probably not a team ready for a "difference maker".

 

You predicted JJ would be a replacement player?...

[jaysblue]

You predicted JJ would be a replacement player?...

 

JJ was coming off a 3 win season and it looked like his injuries were behind him after a healthy 2012 season. He posted 5.5 and 5.9 WAR in 2009 and 2010. The guy was a legit NL Cy Young contender during those two seasons. It was a risk that I didn't mind to be honest. If JJ stayed healthy and even matched his 2012 season, and pitching in the AL East, he easily gets a QO from the Jays and signs a big contract as a free agent somewhere, which nets the Jays a draft pick.

 

I understand how the Marlins trade really looks bad, though I can't think of anyone in that deal that I miss other than Anthony DeSclafani. And like I said, if JJ was healthy in 2013, trade looks totally different. The trade set things in motions to put the Jays in "win-now" mode and if it wasn't for that trade you probably don't see the Jays making the postseason in 2015 and 2016.

[KingKat]

The trade set things in motions to put the Jays in "win-now" mode and if it wasn't for that trade you probably don't see the Jays making the postseason in 2015 and 2016.

 

Going into "win now" mode at that point was dumber than dumb. It backed the Jays into a corner where they still had to add. They don't make the Marlins trade and there's no pressure to make the Dickey trade and neither of those trade did anything to help in 2015 and 2016. Certainly much less than another development year for their young pitchers would have.

[metafour]

The biggest problem with the Marlins trade was how much salary we took on. That led to the Dickey trade (his age meant that he'd come cheap for a "Cy Young" pitcher) and later led to the situation wherein we went into a season with Castro/Osuna/Pompey/Norris/Travis ALL being asked to fill major starter roles on a team that was trying to make the playoffs despite all of them being rookies (we had no payroll flexibility to fill all those holes elsewhere).

 

I'm not sure what ownership pressure he felt, but AA really flipped the switch from "building" to "going for it" way too early. Yes it got us into the playoffs, but it created a short window with a team that ultimately had too many holes to actually realistically win a championship.

[LGBJ29]

The biggest problem with the Marlins trade was how much salary we took on. That led to the Dickey trade (his age meant that he'd come cheap for a "Cy Young" pitcher) and later led to the situation wherein we went into a season with Castro/Osuna/Pompey/Norris/Travis ALL being asked to fill major starter roles on a team that was trying to make the playoffs despite all of them being rookies (we had no payroll flexibility to fill all those holes elsewhere).

 

I'm not sure what ownership pressure he felt, but AA really flipped the switch from "building" to "going for it" way too early. Yes it got us into the playoffs, but it created a short window with a team that ultimately had too many holes to actually realistically win a championship.

 

Gonna disagree here. I think the 2015 team was the strongest team in the post season. BABIP bad luck killed us in the championship series, but in no way was it a team with too many holes to realistically win a championship

[Bobthe4th]

Gonna disagree here. I think the 2015 team was the strongest team in the post season. BABIP bad luck killed us in the championship series, but in no way was it a team with too many holes to realistically win a championship

 

I agree, and even if people think we weren't, any team in the playoffs can win it all.

 

On any random day either team can win, even if it's Cubs vs Reds. It's the long season that weeds out the teams with less talent.

[glory]

Yeah I hate AA with a passion but that 2015 team should have won the World Series. The playoffs in baseball are a crap shoot and the Jays fell victim to the BABIP overlords known as the Royals.

[Krylian]

Yeah I hate AA with a passion but that 2015 team should have won the World Series. The playoffs in baseball are a crap shoot and the Jays fell victim to the BABIP overlords known as the Royals.

 

Why with a passion?

[glory]

Why with a passion?

 

Well that was probably too strong. I dislike Alex as a GM but the fan worship the guy has from bandwagon Jays fans turns it into hate for me. The way he built the team in 2013-15 you would think he was as old as Mike Ilitch.

[Brownie19]

I find it difficult to judge a GM without understanding all (or most) the circumstances behind his actions. There was a stark change in AA in 2014, which resulted in him building one of the top teams in baseball in the 2015 season. It wasn't built to be sustainable (which I think is something the naïve casuals don't seem to understand), but jesus, it provided the most entertaining 2 years of baseball I've ever experienced. My son (and likely thousands of kids across Canada) has developed a passion for the game because of the Jays recent success (one I can hope lasts a lifetime).

 

To suggest you hate AA with a passion for his efforts here is one of the most ignorant statements I've ever read.

[glory]

I find it difficult to judge a GM without understanding all (or most) the circumstances behind his actions. There was a stark change in AA in 2014, which resulted in him building one of the top teams in baseball in the 2015 season. It wasn't built to be sustainable (which I think is something the naïve casuals don't seem to understand), but jesus, it provided the most entertaining 2 years of baseball I've ever experienced. My son (and likely thousands of kids across Canada) has developed a passion for the game because of the Jays recent success (one I can hope lasts a lifetime).

 

To suggest you hate AA with a passion for his efforts here is one of the most ignorant statements I've ever read.

 

So let's trade more prospects for Votto then, so that kids everywhere (the same ones who will tune out the moment the team gets old and sucks) can have a memory for a year.

[glory]

Just to be clear, I loved the off-season AA had in 2015 (Donaldson, Travis, Martin, Saunders, etc). I hated 2013-14, and was kind of indifferent to 2010-12 since he was all over the place but at least seemed to have a long-term plan. Where 2015 went to mush was when Stro got hurt and since AA never accumulated any depth it lead to derpy moves left and right until he doubled down mid season.

 

I'm sorry, as nice as those two playoff appearances were (one of which he wasn't even around for), I'm not going to look past how he got there. I want a team that wins every year, or at least has a chance to. Not one that makes the playoffs once and then the GM leaves as a hero so he doesn't have to deal with the backloaded aftermath and detonated upper minors that he created/left behind.

 

Shapiro coming in saved the org.

[TwistedLogic]

The way he built the team in 2013-15 you would think he was as old as Mike Ilitch.

 

I don't really understand this sentiment to be honest. Acquiring Donaldson and Escobar were WAR trades. The Martin signing was heavily influenced by pitch-framing. The Tulowitzki trade had a lot to do with defense. AA's Blue Jays never sought out a superstar big-game closer and relied largely on finessing their bullpen with guys like Janssen, Cecil and Oliver leading the way. Scouts traditionally value the toolsy athletic players (like Anthony Gose) and traditionally underrate the solid contact/discipline guys (like Devon Travis), and AA made that trade the other way around. There wasn't anything necessarily old school about acquiring Estrada for Lind either.

 

Alex Anthopoulos made a lot of good baseball moves.

 

I don't think AA's problem was that he wasn't modern enough. I think his problem was that he enjoyed playing fantasy baseball in the real world and tunneled in on making the biggest possible deals without paying as much attention to what he was giving up as he should have. He'd then burn himself out on making those big moves (all those stories of how little sleep he got) and be too exhausted or disinterested in filling out the bottom 5th of his roster.

 

You don't acquire Tulowitzki and Price one day and then let Valencia go just to hang on to Loup or Colabello the next. As Joe Girardi would say...

 

I was the #1 Alex Anthopoulos fanboy in this fanbase, but I was very excited when Shapiro and Atkins were brought in. I know I said many times that I thought Anthopoulos would work much better in a scouting director/vice-president role, where he could focus on his strengths, continue seeking out his good plays but have at least one door to go through before pulling the trigger. Where the Travis and Estrada-type moves could still push through, and moves like the Marlins and Mets deals would have hopefully gotten veto'd by a better executive like Shapiro.

 

But we all knew Anthopoulos wasn't coming back after that 2016 season, and as much as I'd like to still be witnessing his ridiculous trades (I'm almost certain Joey Votto and Andrew McCutchen would be Blue Jays right now), I think the current establishment is better for the future of the organization.

[TwistedLogic]

(all those stories of how little sleep he got)

 

Just to expand on this a little more, is it just me or does anyone else remember AA looking f***ing terrible after every major trade deadline or winter meeting? I mean he wasn't necessarily in excellent shape as it is, but it feels like every high intensity baseball period would end with AA delivering a press conference with bags under his eyes and his face looking swollen. I'm not going to go looking for a video but I just remember many times where he didn't look healthy.

 

I don't think at any point during this past year Ross Atkins stopped looking like a dapper motherf***er.

 

 

Even if it's just an appearance, I think fans can have a little more faith in a GM that doesn't look like he's going three days without sleeping.

 

Somebody who looks like they might still have some energy left to make the small moves.

 

Side note: I nominate Ross for eligibility in the next Hottest Jays voting.

[Terminator]

Just got an update from The Score app saying the Jays are have been in contact with Saunders still.

[HERPDERP]

1 year 6 mil pls with option year

[Krylian]

Just got an update from The Score app saying the Jays are have been in contact with Saunders still.

 

I'd take 1st half of 2016 Saunders.