Offseason Roster Thread 2016-17

[Olerud363]

I seen on mlbtraderumors mailbag the writer was predicting 2-3 yr deal 5-7m for Thames

 

This isn't the same as projected fWar, however maybe useful.

 

Here is a list of position player 2016 fWar staying, and 2016 fWar currently not signed. Have to replace essentially 7 fWar and whatever is lost to regression and aging

 

2016 total 27ish

2017 projected total - ??

 

fWar staying

 

Donaldson - 7.6

Pillar - 3.2

Tulo - 2.8

Travis - 2.5

Martin - 1.9

Barney - 1.5

Carrera - 0.7

 

20.2?

 

fWar not currently signed

 

Edwin - 3.9

Saunders - 1.4

Bautista - 1.4

 

6.7

[Olerud363]

The task is not insurmountable

 

bad luck can hit at any time

good luck can hit at any time

 

can't control luck, so

 

1. calculate fWar (or other metric) lost to free agency, aging, and regression

2. replace it

 

I think 7 is lost to free agency (but could be regained)... what is the expected loss due to aging and regression??

[Brownie19]

Wilner mentioned it, Tim and Sid, McCown Blundell in the morning on 590.

 

Good so nobody important or relevant.

[Brownie19]

Yah cause I'm sure most GM's are pulling up WAR when pulling off a trade..

 

I think my sarcastic meter is broken....

[BTS]

Yah cause I'm sure most GM's are pulling up WAR when pulling off a trade..

 

I'd be shocked if most GMs weren't looking at some proprietary version of WAR. Dave Stewart obviously wasn't, but things have really changed in the last 5-10 years.

[TorontonianJD]

How much of a mouthpiece is Arden Zwelling for Rogers/Shapiro. In this article he pretty much states it as fact that EE will not be back next year.

 

http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/expectations-for-2017-now-fall-on-blue-jays-new-core/

 

Did Rogers/Shapiro tell him to write this so fans are prepared for it?

[fatcowxlive]

Wilner mentioned it, Tim and Sid, McCown Blundell in the morning on 590.

 

Actually everyone at 590 actually except Brunt I think lol

[fatcowxlive]

How much of a mouthpiece is Arden Zwelling for Rogers/Shapiro. In this article he pretty much states it as fact that EE will not be back next year.

 

http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/expectations-for-2017-now-fall-on-blue-jays-new-core/

 

Did Rogers/Shapiro tell him to write this so fans are prepared for it?

 

I think the general consensus is both sluggers aren't coming back

[Frenchsoup]

If this is true, then your giving EE to Boston. A dumb move by Shapiro imo.

[baubau]

If this is true, then your giving EE to Boston. A dumb move by Shapiro imo.

 

Yes, because EE has no free will of his own. Shapiro is just walking around the AL and knocking on doors saying "you guys want EE?".

[Slade]

I can't tell if you guys are being sarcastic or actually want Eric f***ing Thames?

[BTS]

If this is true, then your giving EE to Boston. A dumb move by Shapiro imo.

 

Giving Price to Boston seems to be working out alright.

[burlingtonbandit]

lol does anyone actually think there is a chance EE comes back? Its probably like 5%..

 

He's going to get 80-100 Million and this FO isn't going to spend that money on a 34 year old DH.

[Frenchsoup]

Giving Price to Boston seems to be working out alright.

 

Well that's different and you know that

[WONDERBAT]

lol does anyone actually think there is a chance EE comes back? Its probably like 5%..

 

He's going to get 80-100 Million and this FO isn't going to spend that money on a 34 year old DH.

 

I'll trust whatever the front office chooses to do. I 100% believe EE when he says he wants to stay a Blue Jay and his bat still makes a ton of sense for us. If they don't think he's worth it then by all means let him walk.

 

It's really interesting to see how Shipiro handles this because for the first time he doesn't have a bottom 10 payroll.

[burlingtonbandit]

I'll trust whatever the front office chooses to do. I 100% believe EE when he says he wants to stay a Blue Jay and his bat still makes a ton of sense for us. If they don't think he's worth it then by all means let him walk.

 

It's really interesting to see how Shipiro handles this because for the first time he doesn't have a bottom 10 payroll.

 

Yeah EE wants to stay but so did Price. Whoever offers the most money is where he is going to go.

 

There seems to be this misconception that Shapiro is the one who is making all the baseball decisions. I don't think people realize he just has final say but its Atkins and the other AGMs shaping the club.

[Stangstag]

Well that's different and you know that

 

The only difference is that EE has been here longer. They're profiles are actually quite similar. Wrong side of 30, elite talent, stats are following a declining trend, etc

[Grant77]

Yeah EE wants to stay but so did Price. Whoever offers the most money is where he is going to go.

 

There seems to be this misconception that Shapiro is the one who is making all the baseball decisions. I don't think people realize he just has final say but its Atkins and the other AGMs shaping the club.

 

Weren't you the one that said Cherington was in charge of the minor leagues too? That was a day after Atkins said the exact opposite.

 

Maybe you should quit stating things as fact when you really have no clue.

[Stangstag]

Yeah EE wants to stay but so did Price. Whoever offers the most money is where he is going to go.

 

There seems to be this misconception that Shapiro is the one who is making all the baseball decisions. I don't think people realize he just has final say but its Atkins and the other AGMs shaping the club.

 

Yeah Atkins is the GM. I'm sure its a boardroom style front office with Shapiro as the head, but its up to Atkins to go out and call other GMs/agents to make moves.

[burlingtonbandit]

Weren't you the one that said Cherington was in charge of the minor leagues too? That was a day after Atkins said the exact opposite.

 

Maybe you should quit stating things as fact when you really have no clue.

 

Funny coming from you.

[RealAccountant]

Wilner seems pretty sure they will stretch out Biagini. I hope they keep him with the big league club

[baubau]

The more I think about it, the more I want the Jays to get Chapman. Probably going to get 15+ Mil a year tho. :'(

[RealAccountant]

We couldn't win with Bautista and EE in their primes we won't win with them now.

 

It's time to move on and build a more balanced approach. Two draft picks right there

[Frenchsoup]

The only difference is that EE has been here longer. They're profiles are actually quite similar. Wrong side of 30, elite talent, stats are following a declining trend, etc

 

Well one is a pitcher who got what 8 years? Over 200 million? EE probably max's out a 5/150 million, so if the club doesn't want to have a gaping hole at 1st base/DH and get worse (Boston filling their hole in the meantime), then by all means collect your draft pick Shapiro.

[WONDERBAT]

The more I think about it, the more I want the Jays to get Chapman. Probably going to get 15+ Mil a year tho. :'(

 

$15 million is a steal he's getting at least $20 mil.

[burlingtonbandit]

The more I think about it, the more I want the Jays to get Chapman. Probably going to get 15+ Mil a year tho. :'(

 

I'd rather just sign Cecil for something like 3/25 than spend 100 Million on Chapman.

[Grant77]

Funny coming from you.

 

Do you have proof to support your claim regarding Shapiro? I'm have good reason to be skeptical after you made up stuff about Cherington and stated it as fact.

[Abomination]

I'd rather just sign Cecil for something like 3/25 than spend 100 Million on Chapman.

 

Cecil and Holland together probably come in at less than Chapman will get per year.

[jaysblue]

As good as Chapman is, I can't stomach handing out over a $100 million contract to a reliever.

[jays4life19]

Well one is a pitcher who got what 8 years? Over 200 million? EE probably max's out a 5/150 million, so if the club doesn't want to have a gaping hole at 1st base/DH and get worse (Boston filling their hole in the meantime), then by all means collect your draft pick Shapiro.

 

lol EE is not getting anywhere close to 150 million. And there's plenty of cheaper options to replace EE.