Current Roster's Contending Window - Assuming Bautista and Encarnacion re-signed?

[Candide]

simple question - no hard salary cap in baseball. assume that Rogers forks over the dough to keep EE and Jose to 4 year deals. What is this current roster's contending window?

 

I'm going to go with 2-4 years. EE/Jose/Tulo/Martin age by a year, but Donaldson is still in his peak. Travis, Sanchez, Osuna, and Stroman get one more year under their belt. Replenish the bullpen and find a few utility bats to replace Saunders. Free up a bit of cash from Dickey and retool. Boston and New York will become tougher opponents next season, Tampa is still several years away from being a threat, and Baltimore likely will repeat performance next season (possibly slight regression). Still good enough to challenge for a WC, which as we've seen this season, is enough as post-season is a completely different ballgame.

 

Thoughts? or should the Jays blow it up and try to free themselves of potential albatross deals come 2018 or 2019 (i.e. Martin, Tulo, EE, Bautista)

[Krylian]

I'd look to bring EE back under the right term. I'd bring Bats back but a 1 + an option kind of deal. If not, let him go and find another corner outfield replacement with more sound defence. Saunders can take a walk... Unless he comes back on the cheap. Ideally, if Bats comes back he's your DH and you find 2 other bodies for the corner outfield spots.

[RealAccountant]

If you keep the current core together and add bullpen help you likely can compete for a championship in the next 2 years as well

[Governator]

I'd rather try to get younger and cheaper. We don't need a window, start building around the younger guys like Sanchez, Stroman, Osuna, Travis

 

Bautista is an interesting one, it's historically tough to cash in as a DH but that's how he'll be viewed going forward. I think he might sign a 1 year deal to try and rebuild some value. Accepting a QO isn't even out of the realm of possibility at this point so I think the Jays have a good chance to have him back as their DH. I'd rather try to acquire a younger guy like Puig for RF and if we can land Bautista cheap for a DH bat then great. I don't think we'll sign EE.

[Angrioter]

Dalton Pompey is our own version of Tyler Nyquin and his .999 Babip

[glory]

If both agree two year deals, then I'd give both high AAV's and be ok with it.

 

But Edwin's going to want more years than that. Bautista might take two if his market is down but I'm not sure it will be.

[BlueRocky]

The window of this core would close pretty quickly. We're the oldest team in baseball while the redsox and yankees (and their 'unlimited payroll') have a crap ton of young stars emerging.

 

Our farm system is depleted and just starting to rebuild.

 

They need to upgrade the roster if Rogers wants to extend this window and cash in.

An elite left handed bat, relievers, and an outfielder is a good start

[admin]

It's a pretty tough situation. We have young stud rotation anchored by Stroman and Sanchez, and possibly SRF in a year. That alone gives you a pretty good team. Then our offense is all aging, EE, Bau, Martin, Tulo, with Donaldson more than likely gone. I don't even know how to handle it, but you look what guys like Chapman got at the deadline, and this team could really have a nice turnover. I'm sure Shapiro wants a sustainable winning team, so we'll see how they handle it. I'm sure there are goin to be mad people either way.

[Olerud363]

I'd rather try to get younger and cheaper. We don't need a window, start building around the younger guys like Sanchez, Stroman, Osuna, Travis

 

Bautista is an interesting one, it's historically tough to cash in as a DH but that's how he'll be viewed going forward. I think he might sign a 1 year deal to try and rebuild some value. Accepting a QO isn't even out of the realm of possibility at this point so I think the Jays have a good chance to have him back as their DH. I'd rather try to acquire a younger guy like Puig for RF and if we can land Bautista cheap for a DH bat then great. I don't think we'll sign EE.

 

Bautista didn't even make the Jays top 10 in WAR... EE is probably as valuable as Tulo, Sanchez, Pillar, Osuna, Travis moving forward... I know it is hard to believe but EE is declining, Strikeout rate and OPS relative to league were down this year.

 

Bautista and EE have been great for the franchise... but going forward they are not the same players they were looking back. So basically losing them is not going to torpedo the Jays win total.

[Candide]

I think there are two main things that I take away from this.

 

Re-sign EE and Bautista, keeps the window open for 2 years possibly (but no guarantee as Boston and New York have very good young talent with extra cash to spend). After that, expected decline with a lot of unmovable salary.

 

Let EE and Bautista walk, possibly Tulo, Donaldson, and Martin within the next 1-2 seasons. Recoup the comp picks and haul from trades to build a sustainable winning team by 2019 or 2020. Between 2017 and 2019, there will be massive outrage even if I'm inclined to believe that this is best mid-to-long term vision for the team. Will Shartkins and Rogers be able to withstand the fan outrage? I don't think Shartkins have a problem with it and could probably use Gibby as a scapegoat for a year to buy time; but if EE/Jose are gone this winter and this team wins 70 games next season, I except fan attendance to drop to the mid-tier of the AL pack by the all-star break. My facebook feed is going nuts for the Jays right now...like they were with the Raptors two years ago and last spring. Even without the aspect of seasonality, I think once the Leafs start better this year and perhaps even make the playoffs in 2017-2018, people will redirect their focus and energies there. I would even venture to say the buzz this winter will be around the Leafs even if the Raptors win the Atlantic division again, and people will hop on the Raptors bandwagon after the Leafs season is over - assuming that the Raptors make the 2nd round in the playoffs.

 

No idea how much Rogers is valuing the attendance and ratings for the Jays these past couple of years. From a revenue and brand perspective, it's certainly not insignificant...

[glory]

Has Rogers ever meddled with the Jays? Godfrey did based on things I've read but it appears AA had free reign under Beeston and I don't see why it would be any different with Shapiro and Atkins. I don't think Rogers will force them to do anything as far as Bautista and Edwin.

 

It will come down to whether the front office can sign them to deals they are comfortable with. If they can't, then both will be gone and the FO will find replacements. Anything beyond two years for either player would be a mistake imo. Team needs to get younger and more upside. You don't pay big money for a player's decline.

[Candide]

Has Rogers ever meddled with the Jays? Godfrey did based on things I've read but it appears AA had free reign under Beeston and I don't see why it would be any different with Shapiro and Atkins. I don't think Rogers will force them to do anything as far as Bautista and Edwin.

 

It will come down to whether the front office can sign them to deals they are comfortable with. If they can't, then both will be gone and the FO will find replacements. Anything beyond two years for either player would be a mistake imo. Team needs to get younger and more upside. You don't pay big money for a player's decline.

 

i read an ESPN simulation/article somewhere of how teams would perform if they kept their original players. one of the things that AA did well was he was able to get premium talent for below market-value. guys like Bautista, EE, Donaldson, Travis. the problem is that a lot of this was evened out by trades that didn't exactly work out (i.e. Marlins, Dickey, Price, etc.). And he did this with great farm players. I don't get the sense that Shartkins operate in this fashion and prefer to get undervalued assets through FA while developing home grown talent. This takes much longer to develop but is arguably more sustainable. I'd say that if EE/Jose are gone, they need to try to flip Martin, Tulo, and perhaps even Donaldson for as many assets as possible. Unless I'm missing something, there's no way a retool is possible. I just don't see how they're going to replace 60+ HRs, 150-200 RBIs, or 5-8 WAR on the FA market this summer. And any trades for Puig or Votto is counterproductive as that would cost a boatload of assets without much more than what Jose/EE could offer for the next couple of seasons.

[BTS]

Going forward, the far more impactful question is regarding Donaldson. He has two years of team control left, and the team might be best deciding now if they're comfortable extending him for $250M. If not, they have to start looking at trade possibilities.

[Plat]

They are going to piss alot of fans off if they don't resign EE, especially with his current performance in this postseason....they better resign him.

[BTS]

They are going to piss alot of fans off if they don't resign EE, especially with his current performance in this postseason....they better resign him.

 

Meh. They pissed a lot of fans off when they didn't re-sign Price. No nobody gives a s***.

[Governator]

Going forward, the far more impactful question is regarding Donaldson. He has two years of team control left, and the team might be best deciding now if they're comfortable extending him for $250M. If not, they have to start looking at trade possibilities.

 

Yep that's a tough one to deal with. I'm on the JD bandwagon though and would totally be paying large to keep him. If he's one of our only veteran positional player in a few years I'd be good with that leadership. Plus seeing him in a Yankees uniform would be ball crushing.

[BTS]

Yep that's a tough one to deal with. I'm on the JD bandwagon though and would totally be paying large to keep him. If he's one of our only veteran positional player in a few years I'd be good with that leadership. Plus seeing him in a Yankees uniform would be ball crushing.

 

I think an 8/240 deal this offseason would be easily defensible from the FO. I have no idea if that's something they'd even entertain though.

[Dr Negative]

I don't think we should just assume that the Red Sox will be as good next year, they are losing Ortiz, Hanley is infamous for up-and-down seasons and presumably at some point Pedroia will stop playing like the first ballot HoFer that he is.

[Governator]

I think an 8/240 deal this offseason would be easily defensible from the FO. I have no idea if that's something they'd even entertain though.

 

Doesn't seem likely but I'll hope for it. Then Toronto fans explode asking "why didn't EE get paid then" wah wah.

[Candide]

Meh. They pissed a lot of fans off when they didn't re-sign Price. No nobody gives a s***.

 

agreed. it's not about the player, it's about winning. as attached people are to EE/Jose, no one will care if this team is back in the playoffs next year. issue is that without those two guys, the Jays will probably win 75 games max next season. no FA signing or trades (without depleting the farm) will get this team back to the playoffs next season. most non hardcore fans will be outraged and it'll show in the attendance and TV ratings. i'm looking at my facebook feed with friends posting about the Jays. out of the 100 or so posters, i'd say that about 7 or 8 of them will actually follow this team if they finish 4th or 5th in the standings next season.

[Governator]

agreed. it's not about the player, it's about winning. as attached people are to EE/Jose, no one will care if this team is back in the playoffs next year. issue is that without those two guys, the Jays will probably win 75 games max next season. no FA signing or trades (without depleting the farm) will get this team back to the playoffs next season. most non hardcore fans will be outraged and it'll show in the attendance and TV ratings. i'm looking at my facebook feed with friends posting about the Jays. out of the 100 or so posters, i'd say that about 7 or 8 of them will actually follow this team if they finish 4th or 5th in the standings next season.

 

 

You are heavily overvaluing these guys.

[Candide]

You are heavily overvaluing these guys.

 

really? Jose/EE/Saunders had a collective WAR of about 8 this year. Jose had an injury-riddled year, offset by Saunders overachieving and EE likely to repeat his production next year, especially if he becomes the full-time 1B. Add a slightly better season from Stroman and Travis and deduct those gains from a declining Tulo and Martin, plus the likelihood that Happ overachieved this year, and I still think this team wins roughly 70 games next year without any upgrades and losing Jose/EE.

[Governator]

really? Jose/EE/Saunders had a collective WAR of about 8 this year. Jose had an injury-riddled year, offset by Saunders overachieving and EE likely to repeat his production next year, especially if he becomes the full-time 1B. Add a slightly better season from Stroman and Travis and deduct those gains from a declining Tulo and Martin, plus the likelihood that Happ overachieved this year, and I still think this team wins roughly 70 games next year without any upgrades and losing Jose/EE.

 

 

Why would there be no moves to replace Saunders/EE/JB? That's nonsensical.

 

JB put up 1.5 WAR this year and we did just fine... Ryan Goins put up 1.5 WAR last year...

 

Here's an option, sign Josh Reddick for cheap and platoon him with Upton as the lefty bat. JB is replaced for like $5MM. Probably get more WAR out of RF then we did this year.

[Plat]

Meh. They pissed a lot of fans off when they didn't re-sign Price. No nobody gives a s***.

 

Difference is Price was really just here for half of a season while EE has been a cornerstone for the Jays for about 5 years now, so the fans are more emotionally attached to EE than they were to Price. Plus EE puts up monster stats in the regular season AND postseason...Price is known playoffs choker.

 

If they don't re-sign EE they WILL piss off a ton of fans, especially with how he is playing right now when the games matter.

[Daniel Labude]

Resign Edwin, trade for Votto, Pompey gets his second chance, sign/trade for another OF and reload the pen. We are set for 2-4 years where even if the offense drops a tad the pitching should be great enough to carry us.

[JoeCarter]

I think an 8/240 deal this offseason would be easily defensible from the FO. I have no idea if that's something they'd even entertain though.

 

8/240 feels kinda gross. JD's a very unique candidate, having broken out so "late", so not hitting unrestricted FA until age 33. Rather absurd to have gotten him in his prime for so cheap:

2015 (age 29) : $4.3M (8.7 WAR)

2016 (30): $11.7M (7.6 WAR)

2017 (31): $17M (est 7 WAR)

2018 (32): Arb - let's assume $20M (est 6 WAR)

 

Barring injury, we'll have gotten like 29+ WAR for ~$53M. Just crazy.

 

But I'm not a fan of paying for past performance, which is too bad for JD. I'm assuming your "8/240" contemplated buying out the 2 remaining arb years in '17 and '18...otherwise it would be absurd: we can't sign a guy through his age-40 season, we just can't. I'd like to see how this offseason shakes out w/ Jose + EE, take the temperature of next year's team, and if things don't look promising, we really should see what the trade market is for JD...the return we'd got for 1.5 season would dwarf what we'd got for a 2-month rental at the '18 deadline.

[Krylian]

agreed. it's not about the player, it's about winning. as attached people are to EE/Jose, no one will care if this team is back in the playoffs next year. issue is that without those two guys, the Jays will probably win 75 games max next season. no FA signing or trades (without depleting the farm) will get this team back to the playoffs next season. most non hardcore fans will be outraged and it'll show in the attendance and TV ratings. i'm looking at my facebook feed with friends posting about the Jays. out of the 100 or so posters, i'd say that about 7 or 8 of them will actually follow this team if they finish 4th or 5th in the standings next season.

 

So those guys would result in 15 more wins than whoever replaces them? I think you need to step back and think again.

[Candide]

So those guys would result in 15 more wins than whoever replaces them? I think you need to step back and think again.

 

no, i mean more so with the fact that I think re-signing Jose/EE alone this team will likely win 83-85 games next season without upgrades in other areas (i.e. left field, utility, bullpen, possibly a #4-5 starter) because I think Happ over-performed and Tulo/Martin will likely decline. re-signing Jose/EE will yield collective diminishing returns starting as early as next season, but losing both will almost certainly guarantee a non-playoff finish, especially as the Red Sox and Yankees have young talent that is getting better - and they have flexibility in their budget. I'm not advocating re-signing Jose and/or EE per se, I'm simply acknowledging that not re-signing them will almost certainly guarantee missing the playoffs unless equal talent is acquired through trade (I don't see any FA options this offseason).

[jays_fever]

Josh Reddick seems to be the consensus among the board for who they want to replace Bautista.

 

Just from a fanbase level though I hope they just overpay Edwin into staying. Smart hitter and just a awesome dude to root for.

[Candide]

Why would there be no moves to replace Saunders/EE/JB? That's nonsensical.

 

JB put up 1.5 WAR this year and we did just fine... Ryan Goins put up 1.5 WAR last year...

 

Here's an option, sign Josh Reddick for cheap and platoon him with Upton as the lefty bat. JB is replaced for like $5MM. Probably get more WAR out of RF then we did this year.

 

Why do you think Josh Reddick would come cheap? How cheap are we talking about here? He put up an offensive WAR of 3.5-4 in pitcher-friendly parks, is 29 years of age, and could possibly be overvalued in a market where there isn't much hitting to go around. He can't hit left handed pitching but his historical numbers weren't as atrocious as they were this season.