Rangers vs Jays ALDS Discussion

[fatcowxlive]

Wanna hear the real Joke.

 

Texas was 36-11 in 1 run games

 

You missed the real real joke

 

Texas has a +8 run differential.

[jaysfan2014]

We played 16 games against Yankees/O's/Red Sox in Sept/Oct. Rangers played 18 of their last 21 games against sub .500 teams and last 15 in a row.

 

And didn't even do a good job of it either--for the season, Rangers were 35-36 vs. <.500 teams. Not to mention the sub .500 record vs. the AL East that cannot be overlooked. Heck, they couldn't even beat Tampa! I just can't the Rangers managing well vs. the Blue Jays..

[Governator]

And didn't even do a good job of it either--for the season, Rangers were 35-36 vs. <.500 teams. Not to mention the sub .500 record vs. the AL East that cannot be overlooked. Heck, they couldn't even beat Tampa! I just can't the Rangers managing well vs. the Blue Jays..

 

We couldn't beat Tampa either mind you...

[jaysfan2014]

You missed the real real joke

 

Texas has a +8 run differential.

 

With a -8 run differential post All-Star Break and a negative run differential after the trade deadline. Can't get away with this against the AL East.

[Terminator]

The Rangers aren't a better team than the Blue Jays. Worse on offense, defense and the rotation isn't as good although that can be mitigated if they are able to throw Hamels and Darvish a total of 4 times in a 5 game series which they could do simply by throwing Hamels Game 1 and then again on 3 days rest in Game 4. Darvish would be able to pitch on normal rest in Games 2 and 5. Rangers bullpen is better but the metrics don't really like them.

 

But even though the Jays are better that barely matters in a single playoff series, especially when it's just 5 games.

[jaysfan2014]

We couldn't beat Tampa either mind you...

 

True. But for a 95 win team, the Rangers should be feasting on bad teams.. not getting beaten by them.

[HERPDERP]

I don't know guys why we should be getting revenge on Odor. The sweetest revenge is beating them again in the ALDS.

 

Odor can keep punching us and Bush can keep throwing at us. But if we beat them, they got nothing on us. We can always get retribution during the regular season, just not now.

[BTS]

I'm curious about how Texas arranges their rotation.

 

Thursday - Hamels

Friday - Darvish

Sunday - Lewis/Holland/Perez

Monday - ???

Wednesday - ???

 

They pretty much have to use Hamels on Monday on 3 days rest, because that sets Darvish up for game 5 on regular rest. Would Bannister consider using a gas can for game 4 and Hamels for game 5?

[BTS]

True. But for a 95 win team, the Rangers should be feasting on bad teams.. not getting beaten by them.

 

I don't understand why you'd focus on this when they absolutely dominated teams that were above 0.500. Is that less telling than a 0.500 record against sub-0.500 teams? I don't think there's any information be gleaned from the distribution of their wins, but your homer level has gone from its annoying baseline to off the charts.

[Orgfiller]

I'm curious about how Texas arranges their rotation.

 

Thursday - Hamels

Friday - Darvish

Sunday - Lewis/Holland/Perez

Monday - ???

Wednesday - ???

 

They pretty much have to use Hamels on Monday on 3 days rest, because that sets Darvish up for game 5 on regular rest. Would Bannister consider using a gas can for game 4 and Hamels for game 5?

 

I feel like there's this notion that Hamels is better or has more vetrin presents than Darvish, which would be very good for the Jays if this makes the Rangers use two junky starters instead of 4/5 from their good ones.

[BTS]

I feel like there's this notion that Hamels is better or has more vetrin presents than Darvish, which would be very good for the Jays.

 

I think the current arrangement hints at them using Hamels and Darvish twice. They're probably reluctant to use Darvish on 3 days rest, but starting with Hamels allows them to get two starts from each, with Hamels and his rubber arm the only one of the two to go on short rest.

 

Or maybe they'll start Perez and Holland again and we can all laugh!

[King]

These playoffs are going to be awesome. Love all the series. Dodgers vs nats, Indians vs Red Sox, Mets/Giants vs Cubs. And Jays vs Rangers.

[fatcowxlive]

I don't understand why you'd focus on this when they absolutely dominated teams that were above 0.500. Is that less telling than a 0.500 record against sub-0.500 teams? I don't think there's any information be gleaned from the distribution of their wins, but your homer level has gone from its annoying baseline to off the charts.

 

Their pythag W/L record pins them at a mediocre 82-80. We're at 91-71. They're bottom half in both Offensive and Pitching WAR, and have a +8 RD. They're playing on luck, has there been a team in MLB history with a better record in 1 run games? This is worse than KC level BS, the numbers say we should handle them easy.

[Orgfiller]

I think the current arrangement hints at them using Hamels and Darvish twice. They're probably reluctant to use Darvish on 3 days rest, but starting with Hamels allows them to get two starts from each, with Hamels and his rubber arm the only one fo the two to go on short rest.

 

Or maybe they'll start Perez and Holland again and we can all laugh!

 

Yeah that would be the optimal way for them to go. But who knows, teams make puzzling decisions sometimes, even in the playoffs.

[West Texas Forever]

I really hope Jose just puts everything aside and Donaldson keeps his cool too and just beat the Rangers via the scoreboard, block out the head games and win.

[Orgfiller]

Their pythag W/L record pins them at a mediocre 82-80. We're at 91-71. They're bottom half in both Offensive and Pitching WAR, and have a +8 RD. They're playing on luck, has there been a team in MLB history with a better record in 1 run games? This is worse than KC level BS, the numbers say we should handle them easy.

 

Again, they weren't the same team in the first half as they were in the second half. The addition of Lucroy, Beltran and Darvish - along with a resurgent Carlos Gomez - while removing Prince Fielder is a huge boost. Their offense should be expected to be much better than it was early in the season.

[BTS]

Their pythag W/L record pins them at a mediocre 82-80. We're at 91-71. They're bottom half in both Offensive and Pitching WAR, and have a +8 RD. They're playing on luck, has there been a team in MLB history with a better record in 1 run games? This is worse than KC level BS, the numbers say we should handle them easy.

 

I don't really care what their pythag is, that's not a team anyone can expect to 'handle easily'. Their run differential was hurt by a lot of things:

 

- Fielder playing most of the season with a bad neck

- Choo being out most of the year

- Darvish being out most of the year

- Lewis, Holland, Perez, Griffin et all gas canning it up

 

Now Fielder is gone, Choo and Darvish are back, and only one gas can will likely pitch in the series. Also, they've added Lucroy, Belltran, Gomez, and Jeffress. They're going to throw all star caliber starters out there in 4 of 5 games, and the only weak spot in their lineup is 1B: they're at least average in the other 8 spots.

 

Looking at their pythag and determining that they should be easy to beat is really, really lazy.

[jaysguy44]

Anyone know how our guys fare when it comes to fscing Hamel, Darvish, Lewis, Holland, and Perez?

[flafson]

We should try to rest Sanchez IMO, don't let him pitch more than once in the ALDS unless it's game 5.

[LGBJ29]

Hamels doesn't scare me all that much really. Yeah, I know he's pitched us tough in the past.

 

3.98 FIP/3.85 xFIP on the year

4.62/4.09 in his last 6 starts.

 

We tend to hit lefties better than righties. That being said Wade Miley shut us down, but its not like we're facing Kershaw. Could be worse

[RealAccountant]

Lots of respect being thrown around for Hamels. Old man Cole ain't what he used to be

[RealAccountant]

Wow odor hit 33 bombs?

 

Time to get a steroid check

[Dick_Pole]

http://www.baseball-reference.com/games/head2head.cgi?teams=TEX&from=2016&to=2016&submit=Submit

 

So we can stop talking about Texas dominating who and what. They dominated Houston and to a lesser extent Seattle and that's about it. 5-2 against Cleveland as well but 7 games is not a lot to go on.

[Dick_Pole]

That's the s***** thing about playoffs for us, our deep starting pitching depth doesn't mean much. If you have two great pitchers you should be okay.

 

Understand your point but I disagree this time around. That deep starting rotation is going to be a huge boost to the BP. It already paid off huge just last night. That depth also guarantees Dickey won't even see the ball. It also means anyone outside of Osuna (knock on wood), Biagini, Cecil and Grilli won't see the ball unless it's garbage time in a blowout or a 14 inning game.

[fatcowxlive]

Again, they weren't the same team in the first half as they were in the second half. The addition of Lucroy, Beltran and Darvish - along with a resurgent Carlos Gomez - while removing Prince Fielder is a huge boost. Their offense should be expected to be much better than it was early in the season.

 

I don't really care what their pythag is, that's not a team anyone can expect to 'handle easily'. Their run differential was hurt by a lot of things:

 

- Fielder playing most of the season with a bad neck

- Choo being out most of the year

- Darvish being out most of the year

- Lewis, Holland, Perez, Griffin et all gas canning it up

 

Now Fielder is gone, Choo and Darvish are back, and only one gas can will likely pitch in the series. Also, they've added Lucroy, Belltran, Gomez, and Jeffress. They're going to throw all star caliber starters out there in 4 of 5 games, and the only weak spot in their lineup is 1B: they're at least average in the other 8 spots.

 

Looking at their pythag and determining that they should be easy to beat is really, really lazy.

 

Okay. Lets look at from August on then. Record is 33-23. -1 RD in that span. Pythag pins them at slightly below .500 in that same span. According to Fangraphs' offensive WAR in those months we're looking at 7.0 for the Rangers and 6.4 for us. Pitching WAR, 5.8 for the rangers and 7.5 for us.

 

As for starters, Darvish is dominant and in his first 100 IP he's looked like his old self. But that's it. Once again going back to the #s, Stroman Happ and Estrada have all faired better than Hamels has (took Sanchez out because he'd be in the higher category with Darvish). Not to mention they have to go with Perez at best for game 3 and who ever we duel from the other 3 starters I mentioned we should be winning that. So even if they decide to go Hamels-Darvish-Perez-Hamels-Darvish, head to head pitching we have 3/5 matchups on lock on paper, even if we decide to use Sanchez once ala: Happ-Sanchez-Estrada-Stroman-Happ

[BTS]

Okay. Lets look at from August on then. Record is 33-23. -1 RD in that span. Pythag pins them at slightly below .500 in that same span. According to Fangraphs' offensive WAR in those months we're looking at 7.0 for the Rangers and 6.4 for us. Pitching WAR, 5.8 for the rangers and 7.5 for us.

 

As for starters, Darvish is dominant and in his first 100 IP he's looked like his old self. But that's it. Once again going back to the #s, Stroman Happ and Estrada have all faired better than Hamels has (took Sanchez out because he'd be in the higher category with Darvish). Not to mention they have to go with Perez at best for game 3 and who ever we duel from the other 3 starters I mentioned we should be winning that. So even if they decide to go Hamels-Darvish-Perez-Hamels-Darvish, head to head pitching we have 3/5 matchups on lock on paper, even if we decide to use Sanchez once ala: Happ-Sanchez-Estrada-Stroman-Happ

 

your dumn

[Jonn]

Wow odor hit 33 bombs?

 

Time to get a steroid check

 

Why is suprising? He has electric bat speed and he hits left-handed right into the Jet Stream at that stadium. He could be a 30 homerun guy every year in that park. He swings at everything. So his approach will likely have to change if he wants to have long term success. I just hope we don't challenge him on the inner half.

[Governator]

Wow odor hit 33 bombs?

 

Time to get a steroid check

 

 

Bulked up to step in to Bautista.

 

 

Odor hit 33HR, 14SB and all it's good for is a 106 wRC+ lol... He has the worst BB% in MLB @ 3.0%.

[Dr. Dinger]

http://www.baseball-reference.com/games/head2head.cgi?teams=TEX&from=2016&to=2016&submit=Submit

 

So we can stop talking about Texas dominating who and what. They dominated Houston and to a lesser extent Seattle and that's about it. 5-2 against Cleveland as well but 7 games is not a lot to go on.

 

Why even bother looking this up? You're lumping in a team that has no Darvish, Lucroy, or Beltran with a team that has all 3 and more. Might as well be two completely different teams. Your sample is meaningless.

[fatcowxlive]

your dumn

 

lol yeah ok, I don't know how you guys think Texas is dominant at all, we're at the same level if not better than them