Should we extend Dickey?

[burlingtonbandit]

Yan Gomes was the perfect kind of guy as the backup catcher (before his breakout, or the last year or so). Could play multiple positions with average or better defense, along with catcher. He could have been basically the Zobrist of the catching and corner infield world.

 

Yan Gomes has been flat out horrible the last 2 years. That contract looks really bad now.

[ChrisS]

Dickey has been pretty consistent, but his age is going to catch up to him very soon, maybe not next year, but there's a good chance it will. He's going to be 42 this year. I'll take the odds of him pitching poorly next year rather than signing him and hoping he can continue doing what he's been doing.

Doubt his age will catch up to him so fast. Being a knuckleballer he could probably pitch another 5 years, although his effectiveness would be in question.

Biggest problem with Dickey is Thole. Out of 67 catchers with a least 60 PA, he is 2nd last in BA and 3rd last in WRC+. Thats not good enough for a contender.

[BigBounceyBlueBalls]

TURN THE PAGE !!!!

 

Thank you Dick, but bye bye!!!

[Spanky99]

2 yrs for the Dick at 18-20 million is a steal... send it.

[Cyborg]

There's a price for anything. I would want Thole gone and Dickey for around $6-$8M to work out of pen and then spot start or fill in when injuries hit.

 

Sanchez

Stroman

Estrada

Hutch

Happ

 

Osuna

Grilli

Loup

Barnes?

Biagini?

Schultz?

Dickey

[Spanky99]

There's a price for anything. I would want Thole gone and Dickey for around $6-$8M to work out of pen and then spot start or fill in when injuries hit.

 

Sanchez

Stroman

Estrada

Hutch

Happ

 

Osuna

Grilli

Loup

Barnes?

Biagini?

Schultz?

Dickey

 

Not a bad idea... would he take that role?

[burlingtonbandit]

Not a bad idea... would he take that role?

 

Not for 8 Million he isn't. Some team out there will offer him 12-14 Million to be a starter. Dickey probably prefers to pitch in the NL anyway.

[crazy47larry]

assuming the term is short (1-2 years) the o/u for me is $10m per season. happ just signed for $12m per season. estrada just signed for $13m per season. paying dickey $10m makes sense in that scenario. i know we got good deals with those 2 but i dont think dickey can expect us to pay him on par with that pair. he's older and less successful. thats just bad business. someone else surely will though.

[admin]

If past knuckleballers are any guide, there's no reason to be all that concerned on a short term deal. His velocity hasn't dropped at all and he's as healthy as anyone.

 

I'm not saying he will fall off, but chances go up every year (obviously). I'd rather not go into a season paying him a bunch of money and 30 games in we're scrambling for a replacement.

[Jonn]

Not for 8 Million he isn't. Some team out there will offer him 12-14 Million to be a starter. Dickey probably prefers to pitch in the NL anyway.

 

So offer him a qualifying offer and be satisfied with whatever he chooses.

[burlingtonbandit]

So offer him a qualifying offer and be satisfied with whatever he chooses.

 

Yeah but then you are paying close to 17 Million for him and get screwed if he takes it (which he would). No team is going to give up a draft pick to sign Dickey for 1 year.

[L54]

Please do not offer Dickey a QO.

[Dick_Pole]

I think people are looking at this in a vacuum. Spending $10M on Dickey means spending $10M less elsewhere next year. I'm more bullish on Hutchison than the average poster but I don't think the downgrade will be nearly as severe (if there is even a downgrade) than, say, having to replace Encarnacion's bat or Saunders' contribution from this year. This team is blessed to be fairly solid with its pitching staff going into next spring training. With a limited budget, spend on shoring up the position players first. If that massively fails, then sure, bring in Dickey to improve the team by any means necessary and maybe trade one of the other starting pitchers to fill the holes in the outfield. As implied by the back-and-forth in this thread, Dickey is not such a slam dunk player to be re-signed that he should be considered a top priority.

 

 

The Thole apologist reasoning ITT is unacceptable. A fangraphs check of all catchers with a minimum 40 PA has Thole tied for 60th at -0.3 WAR. +0.2 WAR catchers rank 36-42. So the difference between a good back up catcher and a bad one is 0.5 WAR at the all-star break. Not huge, but not insignificant either. I'm with BTS on this one, it's an easy place to improve. Whatever knuckleball effect there is is completely negated by having to carry Thole on the team, assuming this front office has also been brainwashed by Thole's agent into thinking he, and only he can catch Dickey's damn pitch.

[Jimcanuck]

I'm not saying he will fall off, but chances go up every year (obviously). I'd rather not go into a season paying him a bunch of money and 30 games in we're scrambling for a replacement.

 

Dickey is probably the lowest risk of the 5 starters for scrambling to happen.

[Jonn]

Yeah but then you are paying close to 17 Million for him and get screwed if he takes it (which he would). No team is going to give up a draft pick to sign Dickey for 1 year.

 

Considering we know exactly what we're getting with Dickey its not an end of the world scenario. We know we won't be involved much in the free agent market outside of our own free agents. And if we lose Edwin and Bautista I expect Shatkins to look at platoon options and low risk bullpen help.

 

People here are apparently not interested in the likes of Dexter Fowler and Josh Reddick so getting a guy like Melvin Upton Jr at the deadline with Padres eating some salary next year will flll atleast one of our holes. He can play all OF positions. Enough power for either corner and can run. The beauty of it all he won't cost a s*** load and the Padres want to move him and will fly under the radar while teams chase Pomeranz and Myers.

[Brownie19]

I think people are looking at this in a vacuum. Spending $10M on Dickey means spending $10M less elsewhere next year. I'm more bullish on Hutchison than the average poster but I don't think the downgrade will be nearly as severe (if there is even a downgrade) than, say, having to replace Encarnacion's bat or Saunders' contribution from this year. This team is blessed to be fairly solid with its pitching staff going into next spring training. With a limited budget, spend on shoring up the position players first. If that massively fails, then sure, bring in Dickey to improve the team by any means necessary and maybe trade one of the other starting pitchers to fill the holes in the outfield. As implied by the back-and-forth in this thread, Dickey is not such a slam dunk player to be re-signed that he should be considered a top priority.

 

 

The Thole apologist reasoning ITT is unacceptable. A fangraphs check of all catchers with a minimum 40 PA has Thole tied for 60th at -0.3 WAR. +0.2 WAR catchers rank 36-42. So the difference between a good back up catcher and a bad one is 0.5 WAR at the all-star break. Not huge, but not insignificant either. I'm with BTS on this one, it's an easy place to improve. Whatever knuckleball effect there is is completely negated by having to carry Thole on the team, assuming this front office has also been brainwashed by Thole's agent into thinking he, and only he can catch Dickey's damn pitch.

 

I think I fall into this camp. Provided our 4 other starters head into the offseason healthy, I think you let Hutch replace Dickey, use the $ elsewhere, while making it a priority to stock up on 6th, 7th and 8th starters.....as if we lose Dickey, we're going to be thin in terms of starter depth.

[Grant77]

I think people are looking at this in a vacuum. Spending $10M on Dickey means spending $10M less elsewhere next year. I'm more bullish on Hutchison than the average poster but I don't think the downgrade will be nearly as severe (if there is even a downgrade) than, say, having to replace Encarnacion's bat or Saunders' contribution from this year. This team is blessed to be fairly solid with its pitching staff going into next spring training. With a limited budget, spend on shoring up the position players first. If that massively fails, then sure, bring in Dickey to improve the team by any means necessary and maybe trade one of the other starting pitchers to fill the holes in the outfield. As implied by the back-and-forth in this thread, Dickey is not such a slam dunk player to be re-signed that he should be considered a top priority.

 

 

The Thole apologist reasoning ITT is unacceptable. A fangraphs check of all catchers with a minimum 40 PA has Thole tied for 60th at -0.3 WAR. +0.2 WAR catchers rank 36-42. So the difference between a good back up catcher and a bad one is 0.5 WAR at the all-star break. Not huge, but not insignificant either. I'm with BTS on this one, it's an easy place to improve. Whatever knuckleball effect there is is completely negated by having to carry Thole on the team, assuming this front office has also been brainwashed by Thole's agent into thinking he, and only he can catch Dickey's damn pitch.

 

It's wrong to think of this as Dickey vs. Hutchison. It's amazing how fast a lucky half season can make people ignorant of injuries. An extension would be about Dickey vs. Scott Diamond. I'd like to see the team continue adding viable starters even if we extend him and have 6.

 

Also, your average backup catcher is replacement level (0 WAR, no surprise). You're exaggerating the gap quite a bit. Hell, give Thole a normal BABIP and he IS average

[BTS]

It's wrong to think of this as Dickey vs. Hutchison. It's amazing how fast a lucky half season can make people ignorant of injuries. An extension would be about Dickey vs. Scott Diamond. I'd like to see the team continue adding viable starters even if we extend him and have 6.

 

Also, your average backup catcher is replacement level (0 WAR, no surprise). You're exaggerating the gap quite a bit. Hell, give Thole a normal BABIP and he IS average

 

I don't think you just assume that you can't do better than Josh Thole as a backup C. This offseason, guys like Hundley, Castro, and Suzuki will all sign for <5M to backup, and are objectively better than Thole. All project at 0.5-0.7 runs above replacement over 200PA. Thole projects at around 0.3 to 0.5 runs below replacement.

 

That's like a 1-win swing for less than a 4M investment, and a lot more than that if Martin goes down for an extended period.

[BTS]

I mean, Josh Thole is terrible. Since coming here he has a 45 wRC+ and -1.1 fWAR in 152 games. He's played in parts of 4 seasons and has never had a positive fWAR. His Steamer600 is 9 runs below replacement. ZiPS has him at around -1.5 wins/600.

 

There are valid reasons for wanting Dickey, but "meh it's unreasonable to expect better than Thole as your backup catcher" is not one of those reasons.

[Dick_Pole]

It's wrong to think of this as Dickey vs. Hutchison. It's amazing how fast a lucky half season can make people ignorant of injuries. An extension would be about Dickey vs. Scott Diamond. I'd like to see the team continue adding viable starters even if we extend him and have 6.

 

Also, your average backup catcher is replacement level (0 WAR, no surprise). You're exaggerating the gap quite a bit. Hell, give Thole a normal BABIP and he IS average

 

I understand what you're saying except:

 

1. This assumes any thoughts of converting Osuna to a starter are officially dead.

2. You're not describing the base case. You're describing an injury scenario case. If all three of EE, JB and MS leave, the base case scenario is Pompey or Lake or whatever the front office can pick off the free agent market to replace them. Ensuring they re-sign those guys or find other productive hitters to replace them trumps the Dickey to Diamond comparison.

[Frenchsoup]

QO is an easy move at this point.

[BTS]

QO is an easy move at this point.

 

I don't think so. Paying a player 16-17M when you could have had him for 8-10 is pretty bad business.

[fatcowxlive]

What you suggest makes perfect baseball sense.

 

But,

 

I watch baseball for fun. I watch more Jays games than any other team. I hate watching Dickey, and I hate watching Thole. I hope he finishes his career in San Diego and is never seen on my TV again.

 

What?????? You watch baseball for fun and you legit watch lots of Jays games???!!!?!

 

As for me I completely agree with you. Dickey, as much as he's hated, has been great for his price and a lock for 200+ IP of 4-4.5 ERA ball, so basically your permenant 4/5 pitcher. I think he'd be a cheap option to have and his arm isn't going to stop for at least 3 more years.

 

But my opinion stays the same when we first got him: knuckleballers suck and they're boring to watch. The fact that we have Thole taking up space is even worse. A guy like Ubaldo, as s*** as he is, is more interesting to watch because of his explosiveness and movement. A knuckleballer is just really boring to watch

[BTS]

What?????? You watch baseball for fun and you legit watch lots of Jays games???!!!?!

 

As for me I completely agree with you. Dickey, as much as he's hated, has been great for his price and a lock for 200+ IP of 4-4.5 ERA ball, so basically your permenant 4/5 pitcher. I think he'd be a cheap option to have and his arm isn't going to stop for at least 3 more years.

 

But my opinion stays the same when we first got him: knuckleballers suck and they're boring to watch. The fact that we have Thole taking up space is even worse. A guy like Ubaldo, as s*** as he is, is more interesting to watch because of his explosiveness and movement. A knuckleballer is just really boring to watch

 

They're worse than boring - all the passed balls ad wild pitches aggressively ruin my enjoyment of the game. It's just sloppy, ugly baseball.

[Dr. Dinger]

They're worse than boring - all the passed balls ad wild pitches aggressively ruin my enjoyment of the game. It's just sloppy, ugly baseball.

 

*flashback to JP Arencibia catching Dickey on opening day 2014*

[Brownie19]

I don't think so. Paying a player 16-17M when you could have had him for 8-10 is pretty bad business.

 

That's if the market for him is $8-10M....if it's actually $12-14M, then there might be a cost/benefit case to be made. $2-3M overpay vs. possibility of a comp pick.

[Dr. Dinger]

That's if the market for him is $8-10M....if it's actually $12-14M, then there might be a cost/benefit case to be made. $2-3M overpay vs. possibility of a comp pick.

 

Dude, there's not going to be a comp pick for Dickey. You gotta let go of that dream.

[Brownie19]

It's wrong to think of this as Dickey vs. Hutchison. It's amazing how fast a lucky half season can make people ignorant of injuries. An extension would be about Dickey vs. Scott Diamond. I'd like to see the team continue adding viable starters even if we extend him and have 6.

 

Also, your average backup catcher is replacement level (0 WAR, no surprise). You're exaggerating the gap quite a bit. Hell, give Thole a normal BABIP and he IS average

 

I think you have to ask yourself if leaving Hutch in AAA for another season is a proper use of assets. Unfortunately, the Jays don't really have any in-house replacements for the 6th and 7th starter roles unless SRF or Greene really move; however, I still think our best asset management would be to let Hutch replace Dickey, find some veteran AAA arms and use the $10-12M to help replace Bats, EE, Saunders (as we don't really have any in-house replacements for them unless Pompey gets his head out of the clouds).

 

Christ the lack of a farm system is going to bite us in the ass next year...

[Brownie19]

Dude, there's not going to be a comp pick for Dickey. You gotta let go of that dream.

 

Dave Stewart is still a major league GM. There is rampant stupidity throughout ML baseball. Until that changes - my dream shall live!!! In all seriousness though - if Dickey has a big second half (which he typically does), the dream becomes a lot more plausible....those numbers over the past year are hard to argue with.

[Grant77]

I think you have to ask yourself if leaving Hutch in AAA for another season is a proper use of assets. Unfortunately, the Jays don't really have any in-house replacements for the 6th and 7th starter roles unless SRF or Greene really move; however, I still think our best asset management would be to let Hutch replace Dickey, find some veteran AAA arms and use the $10-12M to help replace Bats, EE, Saunders (as we don't really have any in-house replacements for them unless Pompey gets his head out of the clouds).

 

Christ the lack of a farm system is going to bite us in the ass next year...

 

You can't go into next season expecting full health in the pitching staff again, especially with the lack of depth that you mention. The fact that Hutch has spent most of this year in AAA is an anomaly, he will get his chances.

 

Veteran AAA arms are Wade LeBlanc and Roberto Hernandez. You won't get anyone good to go to AAA.