Can Russell Martin come close to providing value at his contract?

[nowayjose]

77 wrc+ In August & September

71 wrc+ In 8 playoff games

An abysmal spring training

15 wrc+ In 17 regular season games

 

Eye test should generally agree he has looked off since the last two months of the 2015 regular season. Still provides above average defense

and is at a premium position. But at 20 mill for three years AFTER this one, this is looking like a contract that the Jays will regret. The hive can't

always be right.

[HERPDERP]

He won't.

 

We're paying him to be produce like he did in 2014, which is incredibly unrealistic at his age. We were very fortunate last year he was good. He won't age well.

[HERPDERP]

He won't.

 

We're paying him to be produce like he did in 2014, which is incredibly unrealistic at his age. We were very fortunate last year he was good. He won't age well.

[Guy]

If you believe 1 WAR is worth about $7-8M, he's earned 4X his salary last year. So maybe we'll be okay.

[BTS]

Over the life of the contract he has a chance to earn the 82M. Most of that will come from his 2014 though. It's scarier now that his framing edge isn't what we thought it was. I'm sure the team would give the contract away if they get a chance, but nobody would take it on.

[Guy]

Seems to me the FO looked at his framing count stats instead of his framing rate stats, the former is deceptive. Last year he was a slightly above average framer, same goes for this year.

 

But with catchers you really have to look at the whole package.

 

Throwing out runners - Last year he was excellent at 44%. Career-wise he's just above average at 33%.

 

Blocking balls - I find he's average at best, his defense in this regard seems to be overstated.

 

Game calling - I have no idea about this, as it's especially difficult to quantify.

 

Offensively - Slightly above average. An average catcher will give you 90-95 wRC+. Martin projects at about 100 wrC+.

 

But of course now he's getting older. At 33 he's definitely in those declining years, especially as a catcher.

[nowayjose]

He won't.

 

We're paying him to be produce like he did in 2014, which is incredibly unrealistic at his age. We were very fortunate last year he was good. He won't age well.

 

I don't know the numbers but I bet catchers age worse than most positions. And yeah, I don't think any team would take that contract from us now, even though that's completely understandable due to age and the back loading nature of the contract. But add in decline in performance and we are stuck with him till the end.

[Atothe]

He's old and has played a ton of games including all those playoff games late into the cold months. It's bound to catch up to him at some point. He does compound it by working out and eating healthy, has given up drinking so I would hope he ages gracefully but I doubt it.

[burlingtonbandit]

Can we stop with "he's an average framer now". http://www.baseballprospectus.com/sortable/index.php?cid=1899493

 

2nd most runs saved among catchers this year and tied for 6th best in framing "rate".

[burlingtonbandit]

Coming into this year the contract still looked really good. Its been a bad few weeks at the plate but lets wait a few more months to see where he's at then. He's always been a streaky hitter.

[Guy]

Can we stop with "he's an average framer now". http://www.baseballprospectus.com/sortable/index.php?cid=1899493

 

2nd most runs saved among catchers this year and tied for 6th best in framing "rate".

 

You're doing it wrong. First off, the sample size is too small for this year. And you should not be looking at Framing Runs, that's a accumulative stat based on how much he's played. Look at the rate stat like CSAA and last years data... he's 42nd at 0.012 CSAA (called strikes above average). Pretty good but not elite.

 

Another thing is StatCorner has him at just above mediocre this year: http://www.statcorner.com/CatcherReport.php

[burlingtonbandit]

You're doing it wrong. First off, the sample size is too small for this year. And you should not be looking at Framing Runs, that's a accumulative stat based on how much he's played. Look at the rate stat like CSAA and last years data... he's 42nd at 0.012 CSAA (called strikes above average).

 

Another thing is StatCorner has him at just above mediocre this year (don't know why): http://www.statcorner.com/CatcherReport.php

 

Framing stabilizes pretty quickly. Last year he had to catch Dickey which dragged down his numbers. He's tied for 6th CSAA at 0.13, not sure where you got 42nd from.

 

I believe BP accounts for umpires which StatCorner doesn't.

[Guy]

Framing stabilizes pretty quickly. Last year he had to catch Dickey which dragged down his numbers. He's tied for 6th CSAA at 0.13, not sure where you got 42nd from.

 

I believe BP accounts for umpires which StatCorner doesn't.

 

42nd is from last years data. You're right about Dickey affecting his framing. But look at 2014... #32nd at 0.0.16 CSAA.. he's a good framer, not elite, many are better.

[BigCecil]

2014 was an outlier with PITT and we are paying for that. His 2015 3.5 WAR and great value for us.

 

When he is at his best he shows legit pop to RCF, but that's been missing 2016. Watching him now, its shocking to imagine how he had a .400 OBP in 2014.

 

After the JPA and Navarro years, he is an expensive and valuable anchor. Its still early and I look for him to produce a lot more.

 

It bothers me to see McCann doing so much better to this point 2016, as he is a solid comparable @ 32.

[L54]

It hasn't even been a month yet. Let's cool the jets a little.

 

If Martin was a .330 wOBA guy the first half of the season and had a bad August, nobody would be asking if he was finished. Now if Martin still looks this bad at the end of June I'll be worried.

[Cyborg]

You're doing it wrong. First off, the sample size is too small for this year. And you should not be looking at Framing Runs, that's a accumulative stat based on how much he's played. Look at the rate stat like CSAA and last years data... he's 42nd at 0.012 CSAA (called strikes above average). Pretty good but not elite.

 

Another thing is StatCorner has him at just above mediocre this year: http://www.statcorner.com/CatcherReport.php

 

Framing stabilizes quickly (5 games max) and StatCorner numbers are garbage compared to BP.

[Cyborg]

Martin may be just under value for the rest of contract, but it will be positive overall with last years boost.

[Guy]

Framing stabilizes quickly (5 games max) and StatCorner numbers are garbage compared to BP.

 

When framing stabilizes is a moot point now (it's definitely not 5 games btw).

 

Martin ranges between 0.010 to 0.016 CSAA in past 5 years. There are many elite framers above 0.020 year in and year out. Rivera and Grandal are elite, for example.

[Cyborg]

When framing stabilizes is a moot point now (it's definitely not 5 games btw).

 

Martin ranges between 0.010 to 0.016 CSAA in past 5 years. There are many elite framers above 0.020 year in and year out. Rivera and Grandal are elite, for example.

 

Which is still 1.2-1.5 Wins per year on top of his bat and arm.

[Guy]

Which is still 1.2-1.5 Wins per year on top of his bat and arm.

 

Don't evade the topic at hand. Martin is not an elite framer.

[Guy]

Put this together:

 

Catcher offense by age (10 year sample, should have used a larger sample, mind you):

 

Age PA wRC+

25 5369 95.1

26 6328 88.9

27 5336 92.1

28 5336 92.1

29 5141 93.3

30 5567 90.1

31 4874 85.2

32 3751 79.6

33 2321 79.6

34 2441 84.4

35 2548 88.4

36 1829 74.4

37 1272 81.3

38 873 83.6

[Terminator]

Yeah I think he'll get there. The Contract was fine it was just one year too long but it was the only way to get him. It's only been 2 to 3 weeks for him give him more time before we judge it.

[BTS]

Can we stop with "he's an average framer now". http://www.baseballprospectus.com/sortable/index.php?cid=1899493

 

2nd most runs saved among catchers this year and tied for 6th best in framing "rate".

 

That's not what people are saying. A couple of years ago, it looked like the best framers could be worth 2-3 wins on framing alone, which probably isn't the case anymore.

[Terminator]

That's not what people are saying. A couple of years ago, it looked like the best framers could be worth 2-3 wins on framing alone, which probably isn't the case anymore.

 

Why is that the case? Because framing is emphasize more now? So there are more good framers on teams and those who used to suck at framing have improved because its importance was realized?

[BTS]

Why is that the case? Because framing is emphasize more now? So there are more good framers on teams and those who used to suck at framing have improved because its importance was realized?

 

Yeah. And some people also suggesting that umpires know who the top guys are and tend not to give them close calls, but I have no idea whether there's any truth to that.

[Angrioter]

That will depend of the free agency market, in term of WAR$$

20 millions a year for a 1.5-2 WAR could be a good deal in the near future

[burlingtonbandit]

That's not what people are saying. A couple of years ago, it looked like the best framers could be worth 2-3 wins on framing alone, which probably isn't the case anymore.

 

Seems some people are actually saying his framing has declined. Even with the reduced framing the overall contract doesn't seem bad.

[glory]

He might be worth his contract by the end of it but it will be largely due to 2015 if that happens. The signing wasn't bad, it was back loading the contract that hurts. He's going to be near impossible to move with 3/60 left after this season in what will be the twilight of his career. Unless there's an equally questionable contract the Jays could take back.

[Angrioter]

Seems some people are actually saying his framing has declined. Even with the reduced framing the overall contract doesn't seem bad.

 

Not only declined, the others catchers improved. wins above RL is defined as superiority over others in the same position.

 

Martin was an one-eyed man in a blinds world. Now Martin is blind as everybody.

[Statman]

I don't think anyone expected 2014 out of him but his bat has been atrocious. Framing has been below expectations, game calling has been below expectations, blocking balls have been on point and throwing out runners has been above expected.

 

I am also seeing decline in both the framing stats and from just watching him everyday that won't project well throughout the life of his contract either which is surprising and incredibly disappointing.