How much has one start changed your opinion on Aaron Sanchez?

[saskjayfan]

i'm gonna run counter to everyone & everything and say that Sanchez is not this good, is overrated, and is going to get exposed. to use a similar example he reminds me of tony cingrani. they both rely predominantly on their fastball with their secondary stuff lagging behind. and when i say 'rely on their fastball' i mean thats basically all they throw. right now Sanchez throws a non-fastball roughly 25% of the time. if he faces 25 batters a game (super rough estimate of 18 outs + 6 hits + 1 walk) and throws 100 pitches that is literally 1 pitch per at bat that is not a fastball. unless he changes his approach and trusts his secondary pitches more i believe it is only a matter of time until he gets exposed. he's got a sweet fastball but that only can get you so far for so long.

 

... there i said. let me have it.

 

Sanchez' curve and change up were sick tonight. I don't know why Martin doesn't call them, a few more times in a k game

[G-Snarls]

Sanchez' curve and change up were sick tonight. I don't know why Martin doesn't call them, a few more times in a k game

 

He probably will now that they're working better. Before he was probably worried to until Sanchez could show they're effective. He was a FB only guy last year.

[BigCecil]

After his start tonight Sanchez is 17th among Pitchers in WAR. Lol everyone before the season was writing him off saying he shouldn't be a starter but he's been the team's best starter and looks like a legit #2 starter.

 

We did a poll on his ceiling and I think I picked 4/5 SP. He has exceeded that so far, and I have been impressed with secondary pitch development but I still don't trust him that much. Just too many balls in play along with too many walks (even though that ratio is improving). He is a valuable arm for sure and he could be a 2/3 SP.

[Governator]

We did a poll on his ceiling and I think I picked 4/5 SP. He has exceeded that so far, and I have been impressed with secondary pitch development but I still don't trust him that much. Just too many balls in play along with too many walks (even though that ratio is improving). He is a valuable arm for sure and he could be a 2/3 SP.

 

That curveball is so nice to see, he finally has a whiff pitch and he's finding the ability or confidence to pitch to lefties. He's totally on his way to be a #2 starter for any offensive driven team.

[RealAccountant]

Do national league pitchers fip and war account for the fact that they pitch to a pitcher instead of a DH ( usually a top 3 hitter on a team)

 

Is there a formula adjustment

[baseballsss]

After his start tonight Sanchez is 17th among Pitchers in WAR. Lol everyone before the season was writing him off saying he shouldn't be a starter but he's been the team's best starter and looks like a legit #2 starter.

 

I never wrote him off. As a matter of fact I've defended him since last year. People just like to hate/are a bunch of followers and are still trying to hate on the kid.

[BigCecil]

That curveball is so nice to see, he finally has a whiff pitch and he's finding the ability or confidence to pitch to lefties. He's totally on his way to be a #2 starter for any offensive driven team.

 

The CB down and in to LHH has been the pitch that has allowed him to start to get them out more. I hope the change continues to improve because he falls in love with that sinking FB...which doesn't always sink. And its movement which is a huge strength often takes it out of the zone...which is a huge weakness when he looses guys on BBs.

[Cyborg]

Do national league pitchers fip and war account for the fact that they pitch to a pitcher instead of a DH ( usually a top 3 hitter on a team)

 

Is there a formula adjustment

WAR yes. The raw FIP number you see does not. FIP- does.

[Daniel Labude]

He probably will now that they're working better. Before he was probably worried to until Sanchez could show they're effective. He was a FB only guy last year.

 

This has been Stroman's problem as well....unwilling/no confidence to throw the offspeed pitches throughout the game. Nice to see Sanchez gaining the confidence. Stroman is next!

[burlingtonbandit]

We did a poll on his ceiling and I think I picked 4/5 SP. He has exceeded that so far, and I have been impressed with secondary pitch development but I still don't trust him that much. Just too many balls in play along with too many walks (even though that ratio is improving). He is a valuable arm for sure and he could be a 2/3 SP.

 

Well he's pitching like a #2 right now so I don't think you can say his upside is a number 2/3 when he already is doing just that. He's posted above average in strikeouts and his walk rate is pretty manageable considering how many groundballs he gets and how few HRs he gives up.

[BigCecil]

Well he's pitching like a #2 right now so I don't think you can say his upside is a number 2/3 when he already is doing just that. He's posted above average in strikeouts and his walk rate is pretty manageable considering how many groundballs he gets and how few HRs he gives up.

 

We are a third of the way through 2016 - 11 starts. I'm looking at his body of work as a SP last year too. The sample size is too small to declare him a 2/3 right now, even if he has pitched that way. So far his xFIP and WAR numbers look good. Things can change. He may have reached his ceiling.

 

Stro was better in 2014 than he is right now looking at 2014, 2015 and this year to date. At times he has looked like a 1/2. Last start (and in others) he has looked like a 4/5 or a Bison's SP as BoSox feasted on him. These guys just don't have enough starts. His xFIP continues to climb.

[burlingtonbandit]

We are a third of the way through 2016 - 11 starts. I'm looking at his body of work as a SP last year too. The sample size is too small to declare him a 2/3 right now, even if he has pitched that way. Things can change. He may have reached his ceiling.

 

Stro was better in 2014 than he is right now looking at 2014, 2015 and this year to date. At times he has looked like a 1/2. Last start (and in others) he has looked like a 4/5 or a Bison's SP as BoSox feasted on him. These guys just don't have enough starts.

 

I still would say Sanchez's upside is higher than a 2/3 given the way he has pitched so far.

[crazy47larry]

Cingrani sucks because his walk rate is atrocious and his fastball isn't elite enough to make up for it. Cingrani gives up lots of HRs...Sanchez doesn't (in fact he's the complete opposite). Cingrani gives up hard contact....Sanchez doesn't. Sanchez can induce groundballs even when he puts guys on base, Cingrani can't do that. He puts guys on base and then gives up HRs. Apart from both throwing tons of fastballs, there is no comparison.

 

What exactly are opposing hitters going to do to "figure out" Sanchez? Are you assuming that everyone doesn't already know that he's going to throw fastballs 80+% of the time? Its not like he's fooling hitters because they're stepping into the box and expecting him to throw offspeed pitches repeatedly. It is quite apparent that hitters simply can not hit his fastball well at all. I was saying this repeatedly even back when you all thought he sucked. So what do you do as a batter? Don't swing and hope he walks you? OK, but he's clearly been ironing out his control and is starting to punish batters who just stand there. His fastball is so good, that even when batters make contact it is typically an easy out for the defense. His fastball is so good, all he really needs to do is stay within the zone to have success.

 

The part you're missing is that he's not just throwing a regular fastball repeatedly. He's mowing batters down with an elite pitch. A pitch that everyone knows is coming, yet still cant handle.

 

cingrani's got a nice fastball. just not much else. it was just an example dude. bartolo colon is another one i didnt think of. compare sanchez to him now. and cingrani has still started more games than sanchez in his career even though hes a rp only now. there is still ample time to figure sanchez and his fastball only repetoire out.

 

a pitcher is easy to figure out when u know whats coming. only a select few like mo rivera and colon can make it work long term. but hey if i am wrong at least we know sanchez will be great well into his 40's.

[baseballsss]

cingrani's got a nice fastball. just not much else. it was just an example dude. bartolo colon is another one i didnt think of. compare sanchez to him now. and cingrani has still started more games than sanchez in his career even though hes a rp only now. there is still ample time to figure sanchez and his fastball only repetoire out.

 

a pitcher is easy to figure out when u know whats coming. only a select few like mo rivera and colon can make it work long term. but hey if i am wrong at least we know sanchez will be great well into his 40's.

 

It's not like Sanchez throws a straight fast ball. It has a tone of movement and throws harder than both the guys you mentioned...

[metafour]

cingrani's got a nice fastball. just not much else. it was just an example dude. bartolo colon is another one i didnt think of. compare sanchez to him now. and cingrani has still started more games than sanchez in his career even though hes a rp only now. there is still ample time to figure sanchez and his fastball only repetoire out.

 

a pitcher is easy to figure out when u know whats coming. only a select few like mo rivera and colon can make it work long term. but hey if i am wrong at least we know sanchez will be great well into his 40's.

 

How dumb do you think MLB batters are? Everyone already knows what is coming from Sanchez; there is nothing to "figure out" about a pitch that you simply can not do much with. Again, please explain to me what MLB hitters are going to "figure out"? Some new magical batting stance that allows them to square up a ~95+ mph pitch that darts all over the place? You're trying to convince me that he's getting by on "smoke and mirrors" (ie: something that can be "figured out") when his approach is actually the complete opposite of that.

 

Cingrani and Colon aren't the only fastball-heavy pitchers in the league. Lance Lynn has posted 79.2% fastball usage over the past three seasons (that is actually higher than Sanchez as a starter this year) and he's only posted WARs of 3.7, 3.4, and 3.1 over that time frame. And his fastball isn't even on Sanchez's level. Why hasn't he been "figured out"?

[BigCecil]

It's not like Sanchez throws a straight fast ball. It has a tone of movement and throws harder than both the guys you mentioned...

 

He got clubbed by LHH 2015, and even with the V and movement MLB players will get to it. Its not unhittable. He has given up 63 hits 2016(although he is giving up less HRs). I think whats made him better this year is use of improved secondary pitches working off that good sinking FB.

[crazy47larry]

How dumb do you think MLB batters are? Everyone already knows what is coming from Sanchez; there is nothing to "figure out" about a pitch that you simply can not do much with. Again, please explain to me what MLB hitters are going to "figure out"? Some new magical batting stance that allows them to square up a ~95+ mph pitch that darts all over the place? You're trying to convince me that he's getting by on "smoke and mirrors" (ie: something that can be "figured out") when his approach is actually the complete opposite of that.

 

Cingrani and Colon aren't the only fastball-heavy pitchers in the league. Lance Lynn has posted 79.2% fastball usage over the past three seasons (that is actually higher than Sanchez as a starter this year) and he's only posted WARs of 3.7, 3.4, and 3.1 over that time frame. And his fastball isn't even on Sanchez's level. Why hasn't he been "figured out"?

 

boy ur getting heated. i dont want sanchez to fail or anything like that. i just see a guy who relies on 1 pitch who doesnt have supreme control over it and pretty much never pitches inside with it. most of his fastballs are over the heart of the plate or outside, and they arent even low they are actually higher in the zone. he just doesnt move the ball around enough imo. i dunno if thats cuz he cant locate or control it or just the gameplan or whatever.

 

its more than possible to succeed like that, zach britton is another guy who is fastball only (granted a RP), but i just worry. its not smoke and mirrors but sanchez isnt showing much more than 1 thing. fastball outer part of the plate. try and hit it. they are failing right now but i just worry it wont last is all.

 

its weird i worry about hi-jacking this thread but this is a thread solely devoted to how much confidence we have in aaron sanchez so i guess i am fine.

[crazy47larry]

It's not like Sanchez throws a straight fast ball. It has a tone of movement and throws harder than both the guys you mentioned...

 

dont underestimate fatbart. that guy could whip it into the zone mid 90's with wicked movement in his prime. but yeah its a good fastball. no denying that. i'd just feel better if he did more with it, or more with his secondaries. thats about it.

[93 Jays]

boy ur getting heated. i dont want sanchez to fail or anything like that. i just see a guy who relies on 1 pitch who doesnt have supreme control over it and pretty much never pitches inside with it. most of his fastballs are over the heart of the plate or outside, and they arent even low they are actually higher in the zone. he just doesnt move the ball around enough imo. i dunno if thats cuz he cant locate or control it or just the gameplan or whatever.

 

its more than possible to succeed like that, zach britton is another guy who is fastball only (granted a RP), but i just worry. its not smoke and mirrors but sanchez isnt showing much more than 1 thing. fastball outer part of the plate. try and hit it. they are failing right now but i just worry it wont last is all.

 

its weird i worry about hi-jacking this thread but this is a thread solely devoted to how much confidence we have in aaron sanchez so i guess i am fine.

 

Is that why he has the second best ground ball percentage? Because everything is up? That makes a shitload of sense!!!!

 

I've loved Sanchez for a long time now and I've always felt he will develop into a front line pitcher. Don't get me wrong, he has a long way to go, but even with how raw he still is, he's still doing well at this level against major league hitting.

 

He needs to develop a change that he can slow down to about 86-87mph and once he harnesses that? He can easily be a number 1 for a lot of teams. People tend to forget that he's still only turning 24 next month and although I understand peoples impatience with his walk rate, the fact still remains that he has that out pitch with that sinker. His curveball is developing nicely and he's gaining confidence with it and hopefully he does the same with his change. Right now, other than Estrada, he's out pitching everyone else to this point and I think he's going to get a lot better.

 

Just a shame we didn't keep Noah... Having him in our rotation right now and take out Dickey?

[Jimcanuck]

Is that why he has the second best ground ball percentage? Because everything is up? That makes a shitload of sense!!!!

 

I've loved Sanchez for a long time now and I've always felt he will develop into a front line pitcher. Don't get me wrong, he has a long way to go, but even with how raw he still is, he's still doing well at this level against major league hitting.

 

He needs to develop a change that he can slow down to about 86-87mph and once he harnesses that? He can easily be a number 1 for a lot of teams. People tend to forget that he's still only turning 24 next month and although I understand peoples impatience with his walk rate, the fact still remains that he has that out pitch with that sinker. His curveball is developing nicely and he's gaining confidence with it and hopefully he does the same with his change. Right now, other than Estrada, he's out pitching everyone else to this point and I think he's going to get a lot better.

 

Just a shame we didn't keep Noah... Having him in our rotation right now and take out Dickey?

 

A top 3 of Noah, Stro, Sanchez and Osuna in the 'pen would have kept this team competitive for a while. Instead, looking at some lean years after this one. Damn AA/Beest and 'all in'.

[thatoneguy]

A top 3 of Noah, Stro, Sanchez and Osuna in the 'pen would have kept this team competitive for a while. Instead, looking at some lean years after this one. Damn AA/Beest and 'all in'.

 

Well we still have three of the four so this isn't really that great of an argument in that sense.

[Jimcanuck]

Well we still have three of the four so this isn't really that great of an argument in that sense.

 

Yes it is.... the salary is $500K. Instead Jays have to pay market dollar for what would have been Noah's position. Dollars that could be used to, eg. sign Heyward.

 

Cost controlled superstars are absolute gold to a team's WS chances.

[Stoneyen]

Yes it is.... the salary is $500K. Instead Jays have to pay market dollar for what would have been Noah's position. Dollars that could be used to, eg. sign Heyward.

 

Cost controlled superstars are absolute gold to a team's WS chances.

 

Not to mention that Synder might be a top 3 pitcher in the very near future...

[thatoneguy]

Yes it is.... the salary is $500K. Instead Jays have to pay market dollar for what would have been Noah's position. Dollars that could be used to, eg. sign Heyward.

 

Cost controlled superstars are absolute gold to a team's WS chances.

 

Well no s*** sherlock, but to list three players out of four that we still have in the previous context doesn't make a lot of sense.

[Jimcanuck]

Well no s*** sherlock, but to list three players out of four that we still have in the previous context doesn't make a lot of sense.

 

Disagree. For the reason stated. Its the difference between 85 and 95 wins.

[burlingtonbandit]

Yes it is.... the salary is $500K. Instead Jays have to pay market dollar for what would have been Noah's position. Dollars that could be used to, eg. sign Heyward.

 

Cost controlled superstars are absolute gold to a team's WS chances.

 

Not sure why you would bring up Heyward who is having a terrible year. Ben Zobrist is the real steal of FA.

[crazy47larry]

Is that why he has the second best ground ball percentage? Because everything is up? That makes a shitload of sense!!!!

 

FASTBALL vs righties

http://www.fangraphs.com/zonegrid.aspx?playerid=11490&position=P&ss=2016-04-05&se=2016-06-01&type=0&hand=R&count=all&blur=1&grid=10&view=pit&pitch=FA,FT&season=all

 

FASTBALL vs lefties

http://www.fangraphs.com/zonegrid.aspx?playerid=11490&position=P&ss=2016-04-05&se=2016-06-01&type=0&hand=L&count=all&blur=1&grid=10&view=pit&pitch=FA,FT&season=all

[BigBounceyBlueBalls]

So what does the kid have left, maybe another 10 starts before the move to the pen? Or less, what we thinking on this?

 

Or do you bring up Hutch now and have them alternate starts?

 

Discuss!!!

 

Thanks

[King]

So what does the kid have left, maybe another 10 starts before the move to the pen? Or less, what we thinking on this?

 

Or do you bring up Hutch now and have them alternate starts?

 

Discuss!!!

 

Thanks

 

Hey Big B! What did the football team you coached nickname you again?

[BigBounceyBlueBalls]

Hey Big B! What did the football team you coached nickname you again?

 

Evil Roy!!! I never heard them scream

 

Now drop and give me Twenty!!!

 

Who dosen't like a Good Scottish mile

 

Good time's !!! Lol