How much has one start changed your opinion on Aaron Sanchez?

[Dr. Dinger]

He basically came into this appearance with three new weapons. A four seamer that he's willing to throw up in the zone and for whiffs, an actual changeup, and a better breaking ball.

 

If you were a scout watching him for the first time, you'd probably grade him out like 70 FB, 60 CH, 55 Curve (maybe 60 ceiling) and 50 command. It's a sexy profile.

[THANOS]

I might slot him in at 25, between Norris and Vince. I can't get over a couple things.

 

It would be fine to write this off as one start where the Rays were just exceptionally s***** but:

 

- where did this change come from?

- Mark Shapiro/Ross Atkins - dunno what they personally had to do with it but I can imagine a culture where pitching to contact was encouraged. I actually heard the Marlins announcers yesterday complaining that Fernandez strikes out too many guys and he needs to pitch to contact. That line of thinking still exists. These guys oversaw the creation of Kluber, Salazar, Carrasco.

This is quite possible. There is definitely a change in philosophy. Once one determines that pitching for strikeouts is not correlated with a high pitch count, it should be the clear goal, since it's what a pitcher can actually control reasonably well. My only issue with the suggestion that Shatkins initiated this is that Stroman was clearly "pitching to contact" still in his 1st start.

- held his velocity

It's clear that the weight he put on has helped him repeat his mechanics and delivery as well boost his velocity. This is proved in that scatter plot in Sullivan's fangrapgs article from yesterday.

- whiffs on his fastball and he was throwing it up. Woo hoo!

I think it was because he was bouncing the 4SM off the CU, and the 2SM off the CH, which helped stop the hitters from sitting on his pitches. I think Pedro was discussing the run on his 4SM being quite good as well.

- working with a 2 plane curve now and it seems a lot better than the 12-6.

Oh yeah, the break is tighter, I'm just wondering why the velocity is the same as the 12-6, you would think it would be faster with less break?

 

There are a few guys behind him that I'd still have ahead of him but I have to work in the confines of your s***** list so take that for what it's worth.

 

I'm stoked to see what he does in his next start. Is he pitching this Sunday?

[Angrioter]

If you were a scout watching him for the first time, you'd probably grade him out like 70 FB, 60 CH, 55 Curve (maybe 60 ceiling) and 50 command. It's a sexy profile.

 

If you "grade" a guy after just one outing, then you're an awful buscone.

Let's see 2 or 3 more outing before to qualify Aaron as "New Sanchez"

[Boxcar]

Where did you have him ranked before the start?

 

Who are the guys past 25 that you would still take over him?

 

I think this is such an interesting case of parsing small sample size / scouting information.

 

Probably around Mark Appel. Similar: poor command, poor strikeout totals, big arm with mysteriously poor results.

 

I usually think I'm pretty calm in these situations so I'm kind of disturbed by the jump I gave him after one start.

 

Looking at the list and there's only two I guess and neither one is a slam dunk: Jameson Taillon and John Lamb. I'd have Blackburn on this list, though. He might also challenge.

[Boxcar]

If you were a scout watching him for the first time, you'd probably grade him out like 70 FB, 60 CH, 55 Curve (maybe 60 ceiling) and 50 command. It's a sexy profile.

 

I actually think you're being a bit low on the curve. Maybe even low on the fastball, including movement. His high fastball was devastating. Why didn't he ever try to chuck it up there before? That 2-8 curve could be deadly, looked really good and afaik he's never really thrown it before.

 

I also like that Sanchez puts in so much work and effort, and it's good to see guys like him rewarded.

[Laika]

Looking at the list and there's only two I guess and neither one is a slam dunk: Jameson Taillon and John Lamb. I'd have Blackburn on this list, though. He might also challenge.

 

It wasn't meant to be exhaustive at all. I have a lot of other guys I think are top 60 in this criteria. Ex., Mike Clevinger is IMO more valuable than a lot of these dudes.

[Boxcar]

It wasn't meant to be exhaustive at all. I have a lot of other guys I think are top 60 in this criteria. Ex., Mike Clevinger is IMO more valuable than a lot of these dudes.

 

Oh I just thought you were putting down names of rookie-ish guys who are likely to pitch significant innings this year.

[Dr. Dinger]

I actually think you're being a bit low on the curve. Maybe even low on the fastball, including movement. His high fastball was devastating. Why didn't he ever try to chuck it up there before? That 2-8 curve could be deadly, looked really good and afaik he's never really thrown it before.

 

I also like that Sanchez puts in so much work and effort, and it's good to see guys like him rewarded.

 

It feels really weird to see you complimenting a guy with a history of control problems and being optimistic about his future. Plz stop it.

[Dr. Dinger]

If you "grade" a guy after just one outing, then you're an awful buscone.

 

You're right, most scouts probably don't even write anything down the first time they watch a guy.

 

Dumbass.

[Boxcar]

It feels really weird to see you complimenting a guy with a history of control problems and being optimistic about his future. Plz stop it.

 

You know I only s*** on Rodon because Bird is injured, right?

[THANOS]

Have you guys read the Sullivan article yet? He actually correlates a lot of Sanchez' success with "command". Yes, he used that word and the scatter plots showing his release point consistency and location seem to back it up.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/aaron-sanchez-aced-his-test/

[fireballW]

When I saw Sanchez and heard the early reports I already started believing the hype. Tried to trade for Sanchez in BBDL from Ang but he said he was keeping him as his project. I look at all the stats but also believe in the human element more than a lot of people on here and believe without Stroman, Sanchez would never have gotten the confidence or work ethic to improve.

 

Long story short, I already would have had him pretty high but after seeing him the is no doubt he moves up. The changeup and curveball both loomed sick and I think he wasnt even slowing down when he got the yank.

 

It is hard to say where he'd go on your list since it is different than mine, however I will say I would put him now equal to Severino.

[Angrioter]

You're right, most scouts probably don't even write anything down the first time they watch a guy.

 

Dumbass.

 

....but you can expect that and more from someone who scouted guys via radio.

Next Sanchez' outing will tell us more about his new skills (Nasty changeup, and plus command 2-4 Seam)

[Boxcar]

I'm stoked to see what he does in his next start. Is he pitching this Sunday?

 

I would imagine, but not sure

[Laika]

Oh I just thought you were putting down names of rookie-ish guys who are likely to pitch significant innings this year.

 

basically just 2015 rookies + 2016 top prospects (ignoring some lower minors guys)

[Angrioter]

Refrescar la memoria

http://m.mlb.com/video/topic/vtp_opening_week/v574836583?query=aaron%20sanchez

[Laika]

If you were a scout watching him for the first time, you'd probably grade him out like 70 FB, 60 CH, 55 Curve (maybe 60 ceiling) and 50 command. It's a sexy profile.

 

I wouldn't put a 60 on the CH after that. It got some whiffs, sure, but it was pretty firm at 89/90 and I would have concerns about how consistently it can be that effective.

 

70+ present FB

50 present CB; 60 potential

45 present CH; 55 potential (flashed plus!)

40 present command

 

70 body

40 mechanics

30 face

[Dr. Dinger]

70 body? I don't see that. His butt got big but overall it's not a plus-plus physique.

[Laika]

70 body? I don't see that. His butt got big but overall it's not a plus-plus physique.

 

He's 6'4" and no longer twiggy. It's the power pitcher frame that scouts drool over.

[Angrioter]

I wouldn't put a 60 on the CH after that. It got some whiffs, sure, but it was pretty firm at 89/90 and I would have concerns about how consistently it can be that effective.

 

70+ present FB

50 present CB; 60 potential

45 present CH; 55 potential (flashed plus!)

40 present command

 

70 body

40 mechanics

30 face

 

Mentiroso!!

http://img.memecdn.com/suicide-time_o_391955.gif

[Cyborg]

On that note did anyone notice Fernandez's lower half looked like 2 times larger yesterday?

[Boxcar]

On that note did anyone notice Fernandez's lower half looked like 2 times larger yesterday?

 

Idk, Dinger will probably be able to expand on that with you though.

[Laika]

On that note did anyone notice Fernandez's lower half looked like 2 times larger yesterday?

 

Yeah it looks like he's gained 30 pounds. Thunder thighs.

[Dr. Dinger]

Fernandez has always had a t'ick lower half.

[KingKat]

To be the only one to answer my actual question...

 

Before: #45 above Folty

Now: #37 above Greene

 

Hard for me to move him any higher than that. I guess #36 would be easy.

 

This seems fair. I'll just + 1 this rather than put serious thought into it.

[Spanky99]

I'm stoked to see what he does in his next start. Is he pitching this Sunday?

 

I would imagine, but not sure

 

Estrada.

[Spanky99]

This seems fair. I'll just + 1 this rather than put serious thought into it.

 

lol... that's what I did, I'd have had him 45-50. As long as we're talking SP rank.

[Grant77]

One start is just that - one start. Must of us are well versed in the concept of a meaningful sample size. Yet it's still hard to shake the notion that we saw Aaron Sanchez emerge from a cocoon of frustrating inhibitions and sprout his wings as a beautiful SP butterfly this week.

 

How much has your opinion of him changed after that one start?

Below, I've ranked 60 2016 prospects and 2015 rookies. These are my arbitrary rankings that I threw together in five minutes. I made no effort to include every notable player. I tried to only include players with SP potential.

 

Where would you have placed Sanchez in this list one week (or one month) ago, and where do you rank him now?

1 .-. Syndergaard

2 .-. Giolito

3 .-. Urias

4 .-. Glasnow

5 .-. Rodon

6 .-. Reyes

7 .-. Matz

8 .-. McCullers

9 .-. Iglesias

10 .-. Severino

11 .-. Snell

12 .-. De Leon

13 .-. Berrios

14 .-. Anderson Espinoza

15 .-. Hader

16 .-. Ed. Rodriguez

17 .-. DeSclafani

18 .-. Joe Ross

19 .-. Gray

20 .-. Hoffman

21 .-. Manaea

22 .-. Newcomb

23 .-. Nola

24 .-. V. Velasquez

25 .-. Norris

26 .-. Carson Fulmer

27 .-. Honeywell

28 .-. Reynaldo Lopez

29 .-. Karns

30 .-. Heston

31 .-. Heaney

32 .-. Lamb

33 .-. Taillon

34 .-. Kopech

35 .-. Holmes

36 .-. Finnegan

37 .-. Greene

38 .-. H. Harvey

39 .-. Stephenson

40 .-. Bradley

41 .-. A. Conley

42 .-. J. Thompson

43 .-. Beede

44 .-. T. Duffey

45 .-. Foltynewicz

46 .-. Bassitt

47 .-. Tropeano

48 .-. H. Owens

49 .-. K. Graveman

50 .-. C. Anderson

51 .-. J. Eickhoff

52 .-. Boyd

53 .-. Lorenzen

54 .-. Chi Chi Gonzalez

55 .-. Wisler

56 .-. Eddie Butler

57 .-. M. Montgomery

58 .-. Mark Appel

59 .-. Nicolino

60 .-. Buck Farmer

 

Probably 17-26 on any given day. One start hasn't changed much for me. I knew he was capable of being a solid starter.

[Brownie19]

What about 36 -Finnegan performance last night?

36 to 10 in the list?

 

Watched Finnegan yesterday. He has to try really hard to generate velocity.

[John_Havok]

On that note did anyone notice Fernandez's lower half looked like 2 times larger yesterday?

 

Seen any video of Robinson Cano the year? Dude looks like he went on the Barry Bonds-lite offseason regimen.