Revere to the Nats in 3...2...1

[BTS]

If Toronto thought it was a net zero move, why would they do it?

 

I'm assuming they like the remaining OF options more than the remaining bullpen options.

[Grant77]

Two things:

 

1. Relievers are not valued properly by WAR.

2. Revere is projected at 1 WAR by Steamer for next season, whereas Storen is 0.6. That's a negligible difference and WAR is not exact.

 

The trade was about as close to fair as can be in regards to value, but it also addressed a big area of weakness from an area of strength (OF depth).

 

Revere will be missed a little bit, but Pompey/Saunders should do a fine job in his place. I would make this trade every time.

 

We all know that the Revere projection is completely absurd. Sometimes they are way out of whack for whatever reason.

[rydermike]

If Toronto thought it was a net zero move, why would they do it?

 

Even if it's a net zero move, it's a positive in the case of injuries. Before trade, an outfield injury results in a small decline with Pompey replacing, but a BP injury say Cecil would have major implications. Post trade, an outfield injury is still minor with Saunders in as replacement (assuming he comes back in normal form from his injury), but a BP injury is less devastating since we have Storen

[TheHurl]

We all know that the Revere projection is completely absurd. Sometimes they are way out of whack for whatever reason.

 

Do we all? His bat and D are right about where I'd expect them and repeating top baserunning numbers is tough to do. I think Drew Stubbs is the only one I can think of recently who had a BsR over 8.0 for three straight years. Not to mention he had 34 infield hits last year, of which very few were in Rogers Centre...and most came against LHP which fewer teams were pitching against the Jays last year.

[BigRed]

Do we all? His bat and D are right about where I'd expect them and repeating top baserunning numbers is tough to do. I think Drew Stubbs is the only one I can think of recently who had a BsR over 8.0 for three straight years. Not to mention he had 34 infield hits last year, of which very few were in Rogers Centre...and most came against LHP which fewer teams were pitching against the Jays last year.

 

It's an absurd projection because it's based off the fact that he only plays in 113 games when he's played 151 and 152 games the last 2 years. The Nats traded for him because they needed a everyday OFer, not somebody who they were going to rest 50 games.

 

It projects him to steal just 25 bases. He stole 31 and 49 over the last 2 years. He stole 24 with the Phillies alone last year, and only 7 with the Jays because they didn't want him running with guys like Donaldson, Bautista and EE hitting behind him. There's no way he only steals 25 in a full season in NL. He's only stole less than 25 once, which was in half a season (88 games) in 2013 when he stole 22.

 

It's kind of ridiculous to think his BsR is going to go from 10.8, to 8.0, down to f***ing 3.0.

[Grant77]

Do we all? His bat and D are right about where I'd expect them and repeating top baserunning numbers is tough to do. I think Drew Stubbs is the only one I can think of recently who had a BsR over 8.0 for three straight years. Not to mention he had 34 infield hits last year, of which very few were in Rogers Centre...and most came against LHP which fewer teams were pitching against the Jays last year.

 

He's 27 years of age and has averaged nearly 7 BsR per 600 PA for his career. He's been even better in the past 2 seasons. The reason to project a precipitous decline eludes me. The number of infield hits he had was right in line with career norms.

 

For you to conclude that his hitting will suffer at the RC after a small 50 game sample where he hit .319 is ill advised in my opinion.

[P2F]

We all know that the Revere projection is completely absurd. Sometimes they are way out of whack for whatever reason.

 

I feel like this is a moot point, since the Storen projection is pretty conservative too - as most projections are.

[P2F]

It's an absurd projection because it's based off the fact that he only plays in 113 games when he's played 151 and 152 games the last 2 years. The Nats traded for him because they needed a everyday OFer, not somebody who they were going to rest 50 games.

 

It projects him to steal just 25 bases. He stole 31 and 49 over the last 2 years. He stole 24 with the Phillies alone last year, and only 7 with the Jays because they didn't want him running with guys like Donaldson, Bautista and EE hitting behind him. There's no way he only steals 25 in a full season in NL. He's only stole less than 25 once, which was in half a season (88 games) in 2013 when he stole 22.

 

It's kind of ridiculous to think his BsR is going to go from 10.8, to 8.0, down to f***ing 3.0.

 

I think we just found Grant's second account.

[THANOS]

I think it's more like 1-2 wins subtracted from the outfield and added to the pen.

 

Just wondering, does this mean you project the Pompey/Saunders combo to provide 0-1 WAR?

[BTS]

Just wondering, does this mean you project the Pompey/Saunders combo to provide 0-1 WAR?

 

No, it's not that simple. I think OF who aren't Pompey, Saunders, Pillar, or Bautista will get several hundred PA. There are currently none in the org better than replacement level. And I don't think Saunders should be relied on at all, especially not as the 4th OF.

[Cyborg]

No, it's not that simple. I think OF who aren't Pompey, Saunders, Pillar, or Bautista will get several hundred PA. There are currently none in the org better than replacement level. And I don't think Saunders should be relied on at all, especially not as the 4th OF.

 

Well he's the starting LF so get used to it.

[Laika]

No, it's not that simple. I think OF who aren't Pompey, Saunders, Pillar, or Bautista will get several hundred PA. There are currently none in the org better than replacement level. And I don't think Saunders should be relied on at all, especially not as the 4th OF.

 

Boggles the mind to see you guys treat a viable bounce-back candidate like he has spina bifida.

 

The guy's nickname is "The Condor". THE CONDOR, FFS!

 

"not relying on Saunders at all" in this context would have meant non-tendering him. Non-tendering The Condor.

[Brownie19]

Do we all? His bat and D are right about where I'd expect them and repeating top baserunning numbers is tough to do. I think Drew Stubbs is the only one I can think of recently who had a BsR over 8.0 for three straight years. Not to mention he had 34 infield hits last year, of which very few were in Rogers Centre...and most came against LHP which fewer teams were pitching against the Jays last year.

 

Speaking of Stubbs, we should sign him to a minor league deal and invite him to spring training...

[THANOS]

Atkins loves Saunders. Anyone hear that interview with Brady & Walker?

 

I did. Didn't he say that he felt he could be a 30HR guy in this lineup? I was surprised to hear a more conservative guy like Atkins say that. He must really value the ol' Condor.

[intentional wok]

No, it's not that simple. I think OF who aren't Pompey, Saunders, Pillar, or Bautista will get several hundred PA. There are currently none in the org better than replacement level. And I don't think Saunders should be relied on at all, especially not as the 4th OF.

 

If Pompey struggles (possible) and The Condor needs more time to take flight (possible) then Ezequiel Carrera could end up with a not-insignificant number of ABs. This would be bad, yes.

[Angrioter]

If Pompey struggles (possible) and The Condor needs more time to take flight (possible) then Ezequiel Carrera could end up with a not-insignificant number of ABs. This would be bad, yes.

 

Junior Lake say HI!!

[vilifyingforce]

If Pompey struggles (possible) and The Condor needs more time to take flight (possible) then Ezequiel Carrera could end up with a not-insignificant number of ABs. This would be bad, yes.

 

If nothing else changes between now and when injuries strike sure. I'll happily gamble it to improve then pen though.

[Praxis]

Atkins loves Saunders. Anyone hear that interview with Brady & Walker?

 

I love Saunders too. Hell most of the people on this forum do. The problem is so do the surgeons and if Pompey is going to be counted on for 100+ games, we'd better not be done adding depth in the outfield.

[Dr. Dinger]

Boggles the mind to see you guys treat a viable bounce-back candidate like he has spina bifida.

 

The guy's nickname is "The Condor". THE CONDOR, FFS!

 

"not relying on Saunders at all" in this context would have meant non-tendering him. Non-tendering The Condor.

 

Condors are endangered species.

[Grant77]

Condors are endangered species.

 

Critically endangered even. They were extirpated from the wild for a short time, actually.

[intentional wok]

If nothing else changes between now and when injuries strike sure. I'll happily gamble it to improve then pen though.

 

I would too. I'm happy with the move. It's just that it turns LF into a bit of a question mark. Trade-offs.

[HERPDERP]

I like Saunders too but I like the pre 2015 Saunders. You know, the living, breathing Saunders.

 

Dead Saunders is useless to this team.

 

What I mean to say is, minus the majority of his meniscus, he is done.

[Brownie19]

Personally, I think it hurts us more in the case of a Bautista injury. LF is not an issue at all for me.

 

If you gave Pompey 162 games he would probably outperform Revere I think. Having Saunders in front of him is just insurance. Even Junior Lake can play a good LF and hit lefties at least. LF is covered.

 

So I think we start with Saunders everyday in LF, Bautista everyday in RF. Carrera on the bench. If there's a long-term injury to Bats or Saunders then Pompey comes up. If there's long-term injuries to both, we're f***ed.

 

Most teams would be screwed if both the LF and RF had long-term injuries. That said, we probably have a higher probably of getting screwed due to Saunder's missing meniscus and Jose's age.

[Krylian]

Most teams would be screwed if both the LF and RF had long-term injuries. That said, we probably have a higher probably of getting screwed due to Saunder's missing meniscus and Jose's age.

 

And Pompey not really establishing himself yet.

[Brownie19]

And Pompey not really establishing himself yet.

 

Or given a true opportunity to...

[Jimcanuck]

Pompey/Saunders are better options than what is available and fits the Jays constraints.

[93 Jays]

btw, even if Sanchez does outperform his FIP in the long term (which I didn't assert), would that really help me much as an owner? His ERA would be ok, but he still doesn't strike people out and his OBPa will always be hurt by his walks and that fact he has guys putting the ball in play. The only reason he is a possible keeper is that he's an SP eligible RP who collects holds on a good team. If I had a stronger roster he wouldn't be a keeper at all.

 

But I must only be defending him (which I don't really think I was doing) because I own him and this he is awesome. My comment was more about trying to evaluate who might out perform their FIP.

 

Sanchez has yet to develop, so what do you think you know about his high walk rate resembling anything permanent? He needs some time in aaa to iron that out. His K rate is offset by the groundball percentage he throws up there. It's about time this organization develops talent such as Sanchez and Osuna. Stroman learned right away. There's no reason that Sanchez can't develop the same way. He is young, with an above average sinker, an above average curve and the potential to have a much higher K rate once he learns to mix up his pitches a little better. It's utterly asinine how so many people are willing to give up on an arm like his. With a wlk rate like that of which he throws up in the bullpen, his value as a starter is enormous. Giving up on a kid with his age, movement and velocity by saying he's ALWAYS going to walk hitters at a high rate is simply something you have no REASONABLE way to predict. Develop him like any organization should with a pitcher with his upside and you actually get a better chance that he will learn to keep his walk rate down.

 

He's stilla f***ing kid for Christ sakes and not everyone learns at the same rate Marcus did. I'm a fan of having Sanchez in AAA, working on his delivery and stretching him out to become a starter this organization can depend on for the next five years or more. Acquiring Storen affords us that luxury. I'm not sure if this trade works for us but bullpen help in our situation allows us to let our young guys develop to be where they should. For sometime through the year, I would love to see Stroman, Osuna, Sanchez, Estrada and Dickey as our starting five. The first three can become a staple of this organization for years to come. Sanchez is a keeper 100 percent. With Marcus and him being good friends, I believe they can help each other with and maybe even develop a healthy competitive relationship on and off the field.

[L54]

Sanchez has yet to develop, so what do you think you know about his high walk rate resembling anything permanent?

 

Probably has something to do with the only time in his professional career he walked less than 3 per 9 was in 2014 strictly out of the BP.

 

The worst arguments on this board are derived from "he's young" or "not everybody develops the same. Look at Roy!!1!"

[RealAccountant]

^ AJ Burnett didn't walk less than 3 per 9 until 2 years in as a full time starter. For his first 500 IP he walked almost 4/9 in and struck out less than 7/9 inn

 

Went on to have 40 WAR career

[Abomination]

A better argument would be that he only pitched 100 innings combined in AA and AAA.

 

There are just so many SPs who had a high BB/9 coming through the minors that it's hard to give up on Sanchez so quickly.

 

Gio Gonzalez comes to mind, although his k rate was higher and general numbers a little better when he first broke in.