So has Chris Colabello earned the everyday DH job?

[Cyborg]

Interesting that Donaldson had the 7th highest Babip in the last 10 years

He didn't. You have to re-sort.

[Spanky99]

Interesting that Donaldson had the 7th highest Babip in the last 10 years

 

329th.

[Jimcanuck]

Yes. Very excited to have Smoak's .699 career OPS coming out of the 1B/DH spot. Hommmerunnnzzzz is good.

 

not ideal, but he is better than Cola taking into account D and luck

[Grant77]

not ideal, but he is better than Cola taking into account D and luck

 

Not necessarily. We don't know what a normal BABIP is for Colabello and his D could be above average.

[TBJ12]

not ideal, but he is better than Cola taking into account D and luck

 

Steamer doesn't agree, they have Colabello at 0.7 WAR and Smoak at 0.4.

[Orgfiller]

Interesting that Donaldson had the 7th highest Babip in the last 10 years

 

You forgot to re-sort the list. Donaldson's .314 BABIP is perfectly normal and not even the highest mark he's ever posted.

[G-Snarls]

You forgot to re-sort the list. Donaldson's .314 BABIP is perfectly normal and not even the highest mark he's ever posted.

 

I'm actually suprused it wasn't higher seeing how hard he hits the MF ball all the time.

[THANOS]

I'm actually suprused it wasn't higher seeing how hard he hits the MF ball all the time.

 

His career mark of .303 is only .011 points less playing 1/2 his games in a pitcher's park, so a similar BABIP next year should be very predictable without too much risk, all other things equal, as opposed to Mushroom's crazy rate.

 

Here's an interesting question, how much do you think Mushroom's future projections would change if he manages to repeat another .400 BABIP season in 2016?

[GD]

His career mark of .303 is only .011 points less playing 1/2 his games in a pitcher's park, so a similar BABIP next year should be very predictable without too much risk, all other things equal, as opposed to Mushroom's crazy rate.

 

Here's an interesting question, how much do you think Mushroom's future projections would change if he manages to repeat another .400 BABIP season in 2016?

 

Not much. No projection system would ever treat .400 as true talent BABIP. They'd bump up a little. But they can't predict an outlier like that.

[Dick_Pole]

Out of the 18,716 player seasons with at least 350 PA, Collabello had the 7th highest BABIP.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=350&type=8&season=2015&month=0&season1=1901&ind=1&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=13,d

 

So...what...you're saying is...the Jays have the next Ty Cobb? Sweet!

 

List of players who have had at least one .410 or better BABIP season:

 

Babe Ruth

George Sisler

Rogers Hornsby

Ty Cobb

Harry Heilmann

Chris Colabello

 

I like where this is headed. Extra props to Cola for being the first player to do it in 90 years. Last time it happened was back when baseball gloves were made of corn stalks and duct tape.

[RealAccountant]

Josh Donaldson hits the ball crazy hard. His Babip is less than .320. He hits the ball harder than Colabello.

 

Let's face the fact. Cola's luck will drop to normal next year at which point he will be a below average or at best average hitter

 

Smoak on the other hand might still have another turn in his evolution as an hitter. His power numbers were fantastic.

 

Long term neither is an option. Short term Smoak should be at first and Colabello should be traded for any asset

[500LevelSTH]

I think the argument is already no base on the amount of money Smoak got after a season he appeared to lose his role to Colabello. Smoak has more upside with defence and switch hitting power. personally I Bello more and think his defence is not much of a liability.

[glory]

Smoak had a .243 ISO last season. The power potential is there. Combine that with a 9-10% BB%, and he still has enough potential that I'd be willing to give him a real shot, especially in the 2016 lineup where he won't have to carry a huge responsibility on offense. The issue is if he is playing 2-3 days a week like last year, it will be hard to get any sort of consistency going. They either need to tell Gibbons to do a strict platoon, or trade/demote Colabello, because having a $4m back-up 1B that can't play anywhere else is a pretty bad use of resources. Either give him a real shot, or don't and use that money for another need (probably too late for that now).

[gbill2004]

Funny, I got banned for a week for suggesting this earlier. Mods on this forum have gone loco.

[GD]

Funny, I got banned for a week for suggesting this earlier. Mods on this forum have gone loco.

 

yeah, that's why you got banned

[gbill2004]

yeah, that's why you got banned

It is. That's what the mod said.

[GD]

but of course

[Grant77]

Josh Donaldson hits the ball crazy hard. His Babip is less than .320. He hits the ball harder than Colabello.

 

Let's face the fact. Cola's luck will drop to normal next year at which point he will be a below average or at best average hitter

 

Smoak on the other hand might still have another turn in his evolution as an hitter. His power numbers were fantastic.

 

Long term neither is an option. Short term Smoak should be at first and Colabello should be traded for any asset

 

Batted ball data tells us that this isn't exactly true. Colabello hits a lot more line drives and goes opposite field more often, which should help his BABIP. Only 13 qualified hitters had a LD% of 25 or higher and a lot of the other guys were BABIP monsters as well (Kipnis, Miggy, Votto). Another .400+ BABIP is out of the question, but Chris Johnson has a career .357 mark with the same batted ball profile, so there are exceptions. I wouldn't be that surprised if he put up a high mark in the .330 to .340 range in 2016.

Edited January 2, 2016 by Grant77

[Cyborg]

Batted ball data tells us that this isn't exactly true. Colabello hits a lot more line drives and goes opposite field more often, which should help his BABIP. Only 13 qualified hitters had a LD% of 25 or higher and a lot of the other guys were BABIP monsters as well (Kipnis, Miggy, Votto). Another .400+ BABIP is out of the question, but Chris Johnson has a career .357 mark with the same batted ball profile, so there are exceptions. I wouldn't be that surprised if he put up a high mark in the .330 to .340 range in 2016.

 

Chris Johnson is a good comp. He's also awful at major league baseball.

[Grant77]

Chris Johnson is a good comp. He's also awful at major league baseball.

 

Chris Johnson had real value in his prime, especially in a platoon role. Colabello has much more power, walks more, and doesn't have a platoon split, so I don't think it's a very good comp in that respect.

[Orgfiller]

Chris Johnson had real value in his prime, especially in a platoon role. Colabello has much more power, walks more, and doesn't have a platoon split, so I don't think it's a very good comp in that respect.

 

We don't have enough information about Colabello to know if he has a platoon split or not.

 

Also, Chris Johnson in his prime = one completely BABIP fueled 2.5 WAR season and a whole lot of mediocrity.

[Grant77]

We don't have enough information about Colabello to know if he has a platoon split or not.

 

Also, Chris Johnson in his prime = one completely BABIP fueled 2.5 WAR season and a whole lot of mediocrity.

 

Anyone with a career .314/.350/.436 line against lefties has some real value on the right team. I'm not overstating his value, you're just being obtuse about it.

 

As for Colabello, a reverse split in 700 at-bats lends itself to a strong possibility that he's not simply a lefty masher. I'd be surprised if you could locate more than 1 or 2 examples of a true lefty masher with a stretch like that. You don't need definitive data to make educated conclusions.

[Spanky99]

Anyone with a career .314/.350/.436 line against lefties has some real value on the right team. I'm not overstating his value, you're just being obtuse about it.

 

As for Colabello, a reverse split in 700 at-bats lends itself to a strong possibility that he's not simply a lefty masher. I'd be surprised if you could locate more than 1 or 2 examples of a true lefty masher with a stretch like that. You don't need definitive data to make educated conclusions.

 

I was under the assumption it's 2000 AB's.

[Grant77]

I was under the assumption it's 2000 AB's.

 

Educated guesses can be made with any size sample, the accuracy is just lower. As I said, it's unlikely that a true talent lefty masher would put up a reverse split in 700 at-bats. Not impossible, but no MLB team would see him as that type of player.

[Governator]

I hope Loup rubs Colabello's head this Spring.

[Spanky99]

Educated guesses can be made with any size sample, the accuracy is just lower. As I said, it's unlikely that a true talent lefty masher would put up a reverse split in 700 at-bats. Not impossible, but no MLB team would see him as that type of player.

 

We'll see...

[FrozenRopes]

Out of the 18,716 player seasons with at least 350 PA, Collabello had the 7th highest BABIP.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=350&type=8&season=2015&month=0&season1=1901&ind=1&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=13,d

 

This is where stats are meaningless. In the top 15 are Danny Santana, Drew Stubbs and Jose Hernandez. Irrelevant stay by irrelevant players. Cola had a decent year. The guy is 32. He is replaceable in a heart beat.

[GD]

This is where stats are meaningless. In the top 15 are Danny Santana, Drew Stubbs and Jose Hernandez. Irrelevant stay by irrelevant players. Cola had a decent year. The guy is 32. He is replaceable in a heart beat.

 

I don't think you really understand what this discussion is about

[dineke]

Bello better than Rogers Hornsby WOW #stud

[Spanky99]

I don't think you really understand what this discussion is about

 

Not at all. Actually, there's quite a few missing the point.